GEOJE, South Korea (Reuters) - Geoje Island, off the southeastern tip of the Korean peninsula, appears as prosperous as ever: foreign cars cruise the streets, young mothers pushing strollers converge on coffee shops, and workers on motorcycles pour into bustling shipyards.
It is what comes next that worries people in Geoje, the world's largest producer of ships by tonnage.
South Korean shipbuilders are facing their biggest ever crisis, with mass layoffs expected later this year as finished vessels leave the shipyards and few new orders come in.
"We've never had a serious downturn - ever," Kim Hyeon-gyu, director of Geoje's main industrial park, said on the sidelines of a public hearing to discuss looming layoffs.
Because it takes about two years to build a ship, Geoje's docks are still busy. But without a major uptick in orders by September, which looks unlikely, 20,000 shipbuilding jobs in Geoje will be lost by March, city officials say.
Some 70 percent of Geoje residents rely for a living on shipbuilding, an industry that for four decades was a key engine of South Korea's export-driven growth and still employs about 200,000 across the country.
Now, a global slump in trade and commodities, plus rising competition from China, is forcing Geoje to find ways to ease its dependence on the shipyards.
"Past strong shipbuilding growth made us lax in finding ways for the tourists to spend money here instead of driving through," said Kwon Min-ho, the mayor of Geoje, which is building a 424-room resort as part of a plan to expand its tourist infrastructure.
But the shift is painful.
Subcontractors at the massive Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering and Samsung Heavy Industries Co Ltd yards in Geoje and at Hyundai Heavy Industries Co Ltd in nearby Ulsan are especially hard-hit.
"The number of subcontractors going out of business has exploded this year," said Kim Dong-sung, an official with a lobby group representing them. "Unpaid wages and bonuses plus 20-30 percent pay cuts are now seen as the norm."
In the first quarter of this year, South Korea's total shipbuilding industry landed just eight orders totalling 171,188 CGT (compensated gross tonnage).
That compares with 68 ships totalling 2,886,589 CGT in the same period last year and roughly 100 per quarter during a 2003-2008 industry boom that saw massive capacity expansion.
The legacy of those boom days is still apparent, even as activity slows.
Geoje's gross regional domestic product exceeded $50,000 (£34,504) per person in 2013, nearly double the $27,214 national average in 2015, according to the Bank of Korea.
A short drive from traditional fishing villages and the massive shipyards stand smart apartment blocks resembling those of Seoul's well-to-do suburbs. The island's 270,000 residents include 14,800 foreigners mainly working in the shipyards as shipowner representatives or workers, giving Geoje's city centre a cosmopolitan feel.
"Business is alright near tourist spots, but it has slowed down in downtown stores," said Lee Mi-eun, owner of a large beef rib soup restaurant near one of Samsung's shipyards. "People ask for lower-priced menus, come in smaller groups."
Shipbuilding here was largely spared the state-driven restructuring many other South Korean industries went through during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis as it earned valuable dollars and had years of orders in place.
While in the aftermath, some shipbuilders were bankrupted or sold, and Daewoo Shipbuilding was bailed out by a state-run bank, industry heavyweights built a dominant position against European and Japanese rivals.
More recently, as orders for traditional ships dried up or moved to China, Daewoo, Samsung and Hyundai - the world's three largest shipbuilders - bid aggressively to build complex, expensive offshore oil and gas facilities.
That kept the yards humming but cost overruns and delays led to combined net losses of $4.9 billion for the three giants in 2015.
Under prodding by Seoul, shipbuilders have been shedding assets and cutting staff and wages in hopes of riding out the downturn.
Clarksons Research previously said it expects global commercial ship orders to begin resuming some time around late 2017, with a full recovery only emerging in 2020.
Seen as "too-big-to-fail", the government is looking for ways to shore up the solvency of state-run creditor banks in the event that they need to step in to save one of the giant shipbuilders before then.
Cho Hyun-woo, planning manager at the Daewoo Shipbuilding workers' union, said restructuring should not cut so deeply that the industry loses expertise it has developed for high-end structures, which it should bid on once demand returns.
"If you kill the technology that can make these ships when they are ordered en masse starting 2018, it's painfully obvious the technology will go to China or Japan," he said.
By Joyce Lee
(Editing by Tony Munroe and Lincoln Feast)
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 20 May 2019 – Brent: US$73/b; WTI: US$63/b
Headlines of the week
Midstream & Downstream
At first, it seemed like a done deal. Chevron made a US$33 billion offer to take over US-based upstream independent Anadarko Petroleum. It was a 39% premium to Anadarko’s last traded price at the time and would have been the largest industry deal since Shell’s US$61 billion takeover of the BG Group in 2015. The deal would have given Chevron significant and synergistic acreage in the Permian Basin along with new potential in US midstream, as well as Anadarko’s high potential projects in Africa. Then Occidental Petroleum swooped in at the eleventh hour, making the delicious new bid and pulling the carpet out from under Chevron.
We can thank Warren Buffet for this. Occidental Petroleum, or Oxy, had previously made several quiet approaches to purchase Anadarko. These were rebuffed in favour of Chevron’s. Then Oxy’s CEO Vicki Hollub took the company jet to meet with Buffet. Playing to his reported desire to buy into shale, Hollub returned with a US$10 billion cash infusion from Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway – which was contingent on Oxy’s successful purchase of Anadarko. Hollub also secured a US$8.8 billion commitment from France’s Total to sell off Anadarko’s African assets. With these aces, she then re-approached Anadarko with a new deal – for US$38 billion.
This could have sparked off a price war. After all, the Chevron-Anadarko deal made a lot of sense – securing premium spots in the prolific Permian, creating a 120 sq.km corridor in the sweet spot of the shale basin, the Delaware. But the risk-adverse appetite of Chevron’s CEO Michael Wirth returned, and Chevron declined to increase its offer. By bowing out of the bid, Wirth said ‘Cost and capital discipline always matters…. winning in any environment doesn’t mean winning at any cost… for the sake for doing a deal.” Chevron walks away with a termination fee of US$1 billion and the scuppered dreams of matching ExxonMobil in size.
And so Oxy was victorious, capping off a two-year pursuit by Hollub for Anadarko – which only went public after the Chevron bid. This new ‘global energy leader’ has a combined 1.3 mmb/d boe production, but instead of leveraging Anadarko’s more international spread of operations, Oxy is looking for a future that is significantly more domestic.
The Oxy-Anadarko marriage will make Occidental the undisputed top producer in the Permian Basin, the hottest of all current oil and gas hotspots. Oxy was once a more international player, under former CEO Armand Hammer, who took Occidental to Libya, Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia, the Congo and other developing markets. A downturn in the 1990s led to a refocusing of operations on the US, with Oxy being one of the first companies to research extracting shale oil. And so, as the deal was done, Anadarko’s promising projects in Africa – Area 1 and the Mozambique LNG project, as well as interest in Ghana, Algeria and South Africa – go to Total, which has plenty of synergies to exploit. The retreat back to the US makes sense; Anadarko’s 600,000 acres in the Permian are reportedly the most ‘potentially profitable’ and it also has a major presence in Gulf of Mexico deepwater. Occidental has already identified 10,000 drilling locations in Anadarko areas that are near existing Oxy operations.
While Chevron licks its wounds, it can comfort itself with the fact that it is still the largest current supermajor presence in the Permian, with output there surging 70% in 2018 y-o-y. There could be other targets for acquisitions – Pioneer Natural Resources, Concho Resources or Diamondback Energy – but Chevron’s hunger for takeover seems to have diminished. And with it, the promises of an M&A bonanza in the Permian over 2019.
The Occidental-Anadarko deal:
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
In April 2019, Venezuela's crude oil production averaged 830,000 barrels per day (b/d), down from 1.2 million b/d at the beginning of the year, according to EIA’s May 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook. This average is the lowest level since January 2003, when a nationwide strike and civil unrest largely brought the operations of Venezuela's state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), to a halt. Widespread power outages, mismanagement of the country's oil industry, and U.S. sanctions directed at Venezuela's energy sector and PdVSA have all contributed to the recent declines.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Baker Hughes
Venezuela’s oil production has decreased significantly over the last three years. Production declines accelerated in 2018, decreasing by an average of 33,000 b/d each month in 2018, and the rate of decline increased to an average of over 135,000 b/d per month in the first quarter of 2019. The number of active oil rigs—an indicator of future oil production—also fell from nearly 70 rigs in the first quarter of 2016 to 24 rigs in the first quarter of 2019. The declines in Venezuelan crude oil production will have limited effects on the United States, as U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil have decreased over the last several years. EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela in 2018 averaged 505,000 b/d and were the lowest since 1989.
EIA expects Venezuela's crude oil production to continue decreasing in 2019, and declines may accelerate as sanctions-related deadlines pass. These deadlines include provisions that third-party entities using the U.S. financial system stop transactions with PdVSA by April 28 and that U.S. companies, including oil service companies, involved in the oil sector must cease operations in Venezuela by July 27. Venezuela's chronic shortage of workers across the industry and the departure of U.S. oilfield service companies, among other factors, will contribute to a further decrease in production.
Additionally, U.S. sanctions, as outlined in the January 25, 2019 Executive Order 13857, immediately banned U.S. exports of petroleum products—including unfinished oils that are blended with Venezuela's heavy crude oil for processing—to Venezuela. The Executive Order also required payments for PdVSA-owned petroleum and petroleum products to be placed into an escrow account inaccessible by the company. Preliminary weekly estimates indicate a significant decline in U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela in February and March, as without direct access to cash payments, PdVSA had little reason to export crude oil to the United States.
India, China, and some European countries continued to receive Venezuela's crude oil, according to data published by ClipperData Inc. Venezuela is likely keeping some crude oil cargoes intended for exports in floating storageuntil it finds buyers for the cargoes.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, and Clipper Data Inc.
A series of ongoing nationwide power outages in Venezuela that began on March 7 cut electricity to the country's oil-producing areas, likely damaging the reservoirs and associated infrastructure. In the Orinoco Oil Belt area, Venezuela produces extra-heavy crude oil that requires dilution with condensate or other light oils before the oil is sent by pipeline to domestic refineries or export terminals. Venezuela’s upgraders, complex processing units that upgrade the extra-heavy crude oil to help facilitate transport, were shut down in March during the power outages.
If Venezuelan crude or upgraded oil cannot flow as a result of a lack of power to the pumping infrastructure, heavier molecules sink and form a tar-like layer in the pipelines that can hinder the flow from resuming even after the power outages are resolved. However, according to tanker tracking data, Venezuela's main export terminal at Puerto José was apparently able to load crude oil onto vessels between power outages, possibly indicating that the loaded crude oil was taken from onshore storage. For this reason, EIA estimates that Venezuela's production fell at a faster rate than its exports.
EIA forecasts that Venezuela's crude oil production will continue to fall through at least the end of 2020, reflecting further declines in crude oil production capacity. Although EIA does not publish forecasts for individual OPEC countries, it does publish total OPEC crude oil and other liquids production. Further disruptions to Venezuela's production beyond what EIA currently assumes would change this forecast.