NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled more than 1 percent on Friday, extending losses after weekly data showed U.S. drillers added rigs for only the second time this year.
Drillers added nine oil rigs in the week to June 3, Baker Hughes said. The closely followed report rekindled fears that U.S. shale drillers would turn the spigots back on as prices flirted with $50 a barrel.
Prices had already dipped in early trade on worries about the U.S. economy, but losses were limited by a weakening dollar, which makes oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies. The Baker Hughes report sent prices sharply lower.
"The increase in the rig count as prices near the $50/bbl range is clearly indicative of the elasticity of U.S. production and speaks to the tremendous efficiency gains reaped by the U.S. producer community over recent years," said Michael Tran, director of energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
Oil traders view falling U.S. output as key to reducing a global glut of crude that has pressured prices during a steep two-year slump.
Brent crude futures fell 58 cents to $49.46 per barrel by 1:24 p.m. ET (1724 GMT). Brent's price still remained almost double January lows, on track for its eighth weekly gain in nine weeks.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 69 cents at $48.48, on track for its first weekly decline in four weeks.
Oil prices have rallied from this winter's lows due largely to supply disruptions, particularly in Nigeria, Venezuela, Libya and Canada. On Friday, militants in the restive Niger Delta region that produces more than half of Nigeria's oil claimed three new attacks on oil infrastructure, promising to bring the country's oil production to "zero."
Still, news that ExxonMobil lifted its force majeure on exports of Nigeria's Qua Iboe crude oil, looked likely to bring barrels back to the market.
"If you're starting to see some of those barrels coming back, well, that's happening ahead of schedule, in my opinion," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho in New York.
The tone of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna on Thursday supported prices "from the perspective that none of the major players (except Iran) indicated that they would be further flooding the market with oil anytime soon," said Energy Management Institute analyst Dominick Chirichella.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data supported oil by sending the dollar index to its lowest since mid-May. However, the weak data also pressured oil prices by raising concerns about U.S. gasoline demand this summer, Yawger said.
By Devika Krishna Kumar
(Additional reporting by Libby George in London and Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Bernadette Baum and David Gregorio)
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When it was first announced in 2012, there was scepticism about whether or not Petronas’ RAPID refinery in Johor was destined for reality or cancellation. It came at a time when the refining industry saw multiple ambitious, sometimes unpractical, projects announced. At that point, Petronas – though one of the most respected state oil firms – was still seen as more of an upstream player internationally. Its downstream forays were largely confined to its home base Malaysia and specialty chemicals, as well as a surprising venture into South African through Engen. Its refineries, too, were relatively small. So the announcement that Petronas was planning essentially, its own Jamnagar, promoted some pessimism. Could it succeed?
It has. The RAPID refinery – part of a larger plan to turn the Pengerang district in southern Johor into an oil refining and storage hub capitalising on linkages with Singapore – received its first cargo of crude oil for testing in September 2018. Mechanical completion was achieved on November 29 and all critical units have begun commissioning ahead of the expected firing up of RAPID’s 300 kb/d CDU later this month. A second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude arrived at RAPID last week. It seems like it’s all systems go for RAPID. But it wasn’t always so clear cut. Financing difficulties – and the 2015 crude oil price crash – put the US$27 billion project on shaky ground for a while, and it was only when Saudi Aramco swooped in to purchase a US$7 billion stake in the project that it started coalescing. Petronas had been courting Aramco since the start of the project, mainly as a crude provider, but having the Saudi giant on board was the final step towards FID. It guaranteed a stable supply of crude for Petronas; and for Aramco, RAPID gave it a foothold in a major global refining hub area as part of its strategy to expand downstream.
But RAPID will be entering into a market quite different than when it was first announced. In 2012, demand for fuel products was concentrated on light distillates; in 2019, that focus has changed. Impending new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations are requiring shippers to switch from burning cheap (and dirty) fuel oil to using cleaner middle distillate gasoils. This plays well into complex refineries like RAPID, specialising in cracking heavy and medium Arabian crude into valuable products. But the issue is that Asia and the rest of the world is currently swamped with gasoline. A whole host of new Asian refineries – the latest being the 200 kb/d Nghi Son in Vietnam – have contributed to growing volumes of gasoline with no home in Asia. Gasoline refining margins in Singapore have taken a hit, falling into negative territory for the first time in seven years. Adding RAPID to the equation places more pressure on gasoline margins, even though margins for middle distillates are still very healthy. And with three other large Asian refinery projects scheduled to come online in 2019 – one in Brunei and two in China – that glut will only grow.
The safety valve for RAPID (and indeed the other refineries due this year) is that they have been planned with deep petrochemicals integration, using naphtha produced from the refinery portion. RAPID itself is planned to have capacity of 3 million tpa of ethylene, propylene and other olefins – still a lucrative market that justifies the mega-investment. But it will be at least two years before RAPID’s petrochemicals portion will be ready to start up, and when it does, it’ll face the same set of challenging circumstances as refineries like Hengli’s 400 kb/d Dalian Changxing plant also bring online their petchem operations. But that is a problem for the future and for now, RAPID is first out of the gate into reality. It won’t be entering in a bonanza fuels market as predicted in 2012, but there is still space in the market for RAPID – and a few other like in – at least for now.
RAPID Refinery Factsheet:
Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.
The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.
The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.
The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.
In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.
However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.
Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.
This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.
It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 14 January 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$51/b
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