If oil prices are to continue their strong rally, they will have India to thank.
India has emerged as the “star performer” of the oil markets, the IEA wrote in its May Oil Market Report. Oil demand growth in India has surpassed that of China, the long-time cornerstone of global commodity demand.
Part of India’s sudden importance has to do with China. Demand growth for refined fuels in China plunged recently, down to 353,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2016 from a year earlier. That is down roughly 60% from a highpoint in the third quarter of last year at nearly 900,000 barrels per day (elevated levels that had a lot to do with filling of China’s strategic petroleum reserve).
But India’s demand for liquid fuels grew by 400,000 bpd in the first quarter, which was the fastest in the world, accounting for about 30 percent of the total global increase. “This provides further support for the argument that India is taking over from the China as the main growth market for oil,” the IEA wrote in May. That level of growth is all the more remarkable given that India’s oil demand grew at an average of just 120,000 bpd every year for the past decade, according to Bernstein Research.
The growth figures in India are striking: GDP is expanding at a 7.6% annual rate, gasoline demand is up 14.5%, and diesel demand is up 7.5%. The WSJ reports that 24 million new vehicles were constructed in India in the most recent fiscal year, and the government is targeting new road construction on the order of 30 km every single day. India’s vehicle fleet has doubled since 2007.
To fill all of those vehicles, India needs more oil. And with domestic production relatively stagnant, India has to resort to steadily higher imports. Crude oil imports have jumped by 12% so far this year from 2015 levels. Domestic refineries are running full tilt, and more capacity is needed.
According to Bernstein’s Neil Beveridge, India is at a “structural inflection point for oil growth,” with several factors responsible for the surge in demand: the government program to rapidly expand the nation’s highway system; rising per capita income; and a shift towards building out manufacturing capacity to make up a larger share of the Indian economy.
India is now more or less at the same per capita income levels as China in 2002 – a time when China’s demand for oil and other commodities started to skyrocket. Bernstein sees India undergoing a similar, if less intense, industrialisation and economic transformation. Oil consumption could grow at a 5.4% compound annual growth rate through 2021, or an increase of 1.45 MM bpd) over the next five years to 5.45 MM bpd. by 2040, India’s oil demand could rise to 10 MM bpd, a more than 6 MM bpd increase from today’s levels, which will also be the largest source of growth on the planet.
In other words, India is simultaneously contributing to oil demand in today’s oil market, putting a floor beneath prices, while India will also be the largest driver of oil demand over the long-term. China was largely responsible for the commodity super-cycle that began in the early 2000s that ended a few years ago. Companies that spent billions on coal mines in Australia, copper mines in Chile, or drilled oil wells in increasingly hard-to-reach areas of the globe – they all had China in mind when they put together their forecasts. But going forward, India will increasingly play that role.
And the next bull market could be starting sooner than many think. Bloomberg reports that commodity markets are about to enter bull market territory, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index – which tracks 22 different raw materials – is about to close up 20% from January levels. To be sure, the super-cycle price boom of a decade ago is not about to return, but the bear market has come to an end. The fortunes of commodity producers now rest with India.
Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com, 8 Jun 2016
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Oil and gas sector is one of the most lucrative sectors for job seekers from industries all over the world. It offers great salaries and benefits packages and an opportunity to travel and work overseas. Due to its high demand, scammers are preying on the vulnerable oil and gas workers. To ensure you don’t fall prey to their mischievous tactics, we would recommend reading our guideline below:
How does scamming occur?
The scammer poses as an employer or recruiter of an oil and gas company or he may claim to be an employee or recruiter for a job consultancy firm catering to the oil and gas industry. They offer irresistible employment opportunities and often demand money in advance to conduct further processes. Money is often demanded on the pretext of work visas, travel expenses, background or credit checks that the job requires.
What do scammers want from you?
It is important to understand what the scammer's agenda is so that it helps you shield yourself from getting conned:
To extract money: On the pretext of getting you a job in the energy sector employing any of the tactics mentioned above
For identity theft: scammers look for valid identity of people and ask for confidential personal details including bank details to commit fraud through your name or to withdraw money from your account.
Whatever be their modus operandi, their goal is to either separate you from your cash or accomplish an identity theft. The bigger problem is, the scammers are getting better at their game and coming up with innovative ideas to lure innocent job seekers. In oil and gas industry, the scammers are targeting the job seekers from overseas, immigrants or contractors as they feel it is easier to attract them on the pretext of work permits, high salaries, paid travel, better lifestyle in the first world countries.
How to spot a job scam and keep yourself secure?
There is always a difference between real and fake, all you need to do is be watchful to notice the underlying discrepancies. There is a pattern that scammers usually follows, which is discussed below. Make sure you watch out for these red flags when you receive any job offer next time:
Free email provider - No legitimate hiring agency or company will use the services of free email provider like Gmail, Hotmail, or Yahoo. So, if you are receiving an email or have been requested to share your details on emails that use free email services, then be extremely cautious. The scammers try to trick the job seekers by using an email address that looks authentic for instance: [email protected]. It is important to notice here that the ‘xyz’ part of the email ID is usually a gmail, yahoo, etc. which is a free email address. A legitimate job provider would never use.
Fake or new company name - If company name or oil and gas recruitment agency name is mentioned along with the free email id, then do a quick search on the company. Verify its existence and contact them via official email address and contact numbers mentioned on the website. Check their social media presence too. If the website and social media page look new while the company claims to be in business for a substantial amount of time, know for sure that there is something fishy.
Bad grammar and confusing job details - The scammers usually do not pay much attention to structure the mail. You can spot grammatical errors and even the job descriptions are not explained well or is completely different than your skillset and experience. Any authentic mail from a company or oil and gas recruitment agency will ensure an error-free, concise, and clear communication
Fee to conduct a job interview - No legitimate oil and gas company or recruitment agency will ever ask for money to conduct a job interview or to apply to job positions. If the mail says, the money will be refunded once you appear for a job interview, then please do not trust such claims as it is always bogus.
Asking for confidential personal information - Anyone asking for information that you will never put on CV, is a warning sign. It includes your bank details, passport copy, identity cards, your current residential details and so on. No genuine company will ever ask for such details before you sign the offer letter. If by chance, you have shared your bank details or another confidential detail to the scammer, contact your bank and email service provider and register a complaint against it.
Unknown source - There are countries who have strict spam rules and until you subscribe or give consent to the company, they cannot send you emails. So, if you receive an email from a company you haven’t contacted or have not applied for jobs, then be cautious it might be a scam.
The principle on which scammers operate is “Too good to be true”. Don’t entertain any job offer that offers a position, you are not qualified for or offers a salary which is unrealistically high. In the oil and gas sector, be careful not to reveal your passport/work visa details to the scammer. Remember, if you find anything which is way beyond the realistic expectations, then trust your instincts and drop the offer and do not respond.
See our infographic below for a quick summarized glance -
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Searching for the right talent is often a tedious chore for the HR. However, with technological improvements, the usage of app-based recruitment has increased manifold. Recruiters and job seekers are increasingly adopting this new method. A mobile application simplifies the labor-intensive and time-consuming recruitment task and comes loaded with features that help to automate the recruitment cycle. For all the good, app-based approach can do, it still comes under fire from the critics. Here's our take on the pros & cons of App-based talent search.