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Last Updated: June 13, 2016
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For years global oil majors have brushed off speculation that an imminent peak in global oil reserves spells the beginning of the end of the hydrocarbon age. There is a long-term trend of new oil finds and improved recovery outpacing consumption each year, they say, underpinning future output and returns.

BP’s latest benchmark energy review, however, makes this line a tougher sell.

The figures show that, since 2011, the world oil reserves have flatlined and are now dropping. Total proven reserves peaked at 1.7 trillion barrels in 2014 and, had BP not revised its 2013 figure downwards, last year’s 1.698 trillion barrel total would have marked the second consecutive fall since BP’s data began in 1980.

A key metric for future production potential, proven reserves are notoriously a moving target.

By definition they should account for the economic recoverability of the oil at prevailing prices and not everyone uses the same yardstick.

To what extent oil prices affect BP’s proven reserves figures is unclear and the historical correlation is weak. Many countries use opaque reserves accounting criteria and apply less rigorous measures for economic recoverability. Others, including the US and Brazil, use more stringent rules. Brazil wrote down a fifth of its proven reserves last year partly due to lower prices, accounting for most of the outright fall in 2015.

The price impact makes the recent slowdown in proven reserves even more troubling.

Reserves hit their apogee as oil prices surged to all-time highs over $100/b, a move which should make more, not less, oil in the ground worth developing and hence “proven.”

There are political motives why some oil producing countries, particularly within OPEC, may been keen to overstate or fail to update their data as output depletes reservoirs, some market watchers believe.

Michael Jefferson, a former Shell chief economist, believes world proved oil reserves could be overstated by up to half as a result of less scrupulous national reporting and the addition of less valuable, harder-to-produce unconventional oil such as oil sands and bitumen. Moves to curb climate change could put even more of the proven oil out of reach.

The impact of the massive cutbacks in global upstream spending is another key concern.

Exploration drilling has taken a big hit since the 2014 downturn and, although yet to feed through to proven reserves, future discovery rates will likely slow in the coming years as a result.

Tight oil to the rescue?

BP itself remains upbeat over the bigger trend of growing reserves.

Its chief economist Spencer Dale is keen to set aside annual statistical “wiggles” and focus on the “bigger picture” that there’s still plenty of proven oil in the world.

“I would take the message that there are enormous amounts of proved reserves relative to production levels…and that those reserves appear to be going up over time despite the fact that we keep consuming oil,” Dale said while presenting BP’s latest statistical review last week.

The technological breakthroughs that sparked the US tight oil boom are another reason why we should be upbeat over the world’s volumes of remaining oil, according to BP. Recovery rates of US tight oil have risen from around 5% to above 10% in some geological “sweet spots,” Dale said, with further gains still possible.

“This is enormously important because, if the big constraint for how long US tight oil can continue to grow is the size of the resource base…if you increase the recovery rate by 50%, you increase the resource base by 50%, so this is huge,” Dale said.

US proven oil reserves have already jumped 78% since 2009 largely due to tight oil, according to BP. At 55 billion barrels, US reserves now rank as the world’s 9th biggest after the UAE. At current production levels, that would last the US 12 years, about the same as BP’s own proven reserves, but well behind the global average of 50.7 years.

Referred to as the reserves-to-production ratio, the measure of how low long the world’s proven reserve could sustain current production also peaked in 2011, the numbers show.

Even more pressing for global oil majors is that Big Oil only controls a tiny proportion of the world’s remaining oil.

The proven reserves of the world’s biggest five oil and gas majors, for example, account for less than 3% of the total proven oil, Dale notes. By contrast more than 70% of the world’s reserves is mostly off-limits in OPEC member countries and two thirds of OPEC’s oil is in the Middle East.

By Robert Perkins, Senior writer/editor


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BP & The Expansion of the Caspian

The vast Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan’s portion of the South Caspian Sea marked several milestones in 2018. It has now produced a cumulative total of 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas since the field started up in 2006, with daily output reaching a new peak, growing by 12.5% y-o-y. At a cost of US$28 billion, Shah Deniz – with its estimated 1.2 trillion cubic metres of gas resources – has proven to be an unparalleled success, being a founding link of Europe’s Southern Gas Corridor and coming in relatively on budget and on time. And now BP, along with its partners, is hoping to replicate that success with an ambitious exploration schedule over the next two years.

Four new exploration wells in three blocks, along with a seismic survey of a fourth, are planned for 2019 and an additional three wells in 2020. The aggressive programme is aimed at confirming a long-held belief by BP and SOCAR there are more significant pockets of gas swirling around the area. The first exploratory well is targeting the Shafag-Asiman block, where initial seismic surveys suggest natural gas reserves of some 500 billion cubic metres; if confirmed, that would make it the second-largest gas field ever discovered in the Caspian, behind only Shah Deniz. BP also suspects that Shah Deniz itself could be bigger than expected – the company has long predicted the existence of a second, deeper reservoir below the existing field, and a ‘further assessment’ is planned for 2020 to get to the bottom of the case, so to speak.

Two wells are planned to be drilled in the Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula (SWAP) block, some 30km southeast of Baku, where BP operates in equal partnership with SOCAR, with an additional well planned for 2020. The goal at SWAP is light crude oil, as is a seismic survey in the deepwater Caspian Sea Block D230 where a ‘significant amount’ of oil is expected. Exploration in the onshore Gobustan block, an inland field 50km north of Baku, rounds up BP’s upstream programme and the company expects that at least one seven wells of these will yield a bonanza that will take Azerbaijan’s reserves well into the middle of the century.

Developments in the Caspian are key, as it is the starting node of the Southern Gas Corridor – meant to deliver gas to Europe. Shah Deniz gas currently makes its way to Turkey via the South Caucasus Gas pipeline and exports onwards to Europe should begin when the US$8.5 billion, 32 bcm/y Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) starts service in 2020. Planned output from Azerbaijan currently only fills half of the TANAP capacity, meaning there is room for plenty more gas, if BP can find it. From Turkey, Azeri gas will link up to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline in Greece and connect into Turkey, potentially joined by other pipelines projects that are planned to link up with gas production in Israel. This alternate source of natural gas for Europe is crucial, particularly since political will to push through the Nordstream-2 pipeline connecting Russian gas to Germany is slackening. The demand is there and so is the infrastructure. And now BP will be spending the next two years trying to prove that the supply exists underneath Azerbaijan.

BP’s upcoming planned exploration in the Caspian:

  • Shafag-Asiman, late 2019, targeting natural gas
  • SWAP, 3 sites, late 2019/2020, targeting oil
  • ‘Onshore gas project’, end 2019, targeting natural gas’
  • Block D230, 2019 (seismic assessment)/2020 (drilling), targeting oil
  • Shah Deniz ‘further assessment’, 2020, targeting natural gas
January, 22 2019
RAPID Rises

When it was first announced in 2012, there was scepticism about whether or not Petronas’ RAPID refinery in Johor was destined for reality or cancellation. It came at a time when the refining industry saw multiple ambitious, sometimes unpractical, projects announced. At that point, Petronas – though one of the most respected state oil firms – was still seen as more of an upstream player internationally. Its downstream forays were largely confined to its home base Malaysia and specialty chemicals, as well as a surprising venture into South African through Engen. Its refineries, too, were relatively small. So the announcement that Petronas was planning essentially, its own Jamnagar, promoted some pessimism. Could it succeed?

It has. The RAPID refinery – part of a larger plan to turn the Pengerang district in southern Johor into an oil refining and storage hub capitalising on linkages with Singapore – received its first cargo of crude oil for testing in September 2018. Mechanical completion was achieved on November 29 and all critical units have begun commissioning ahead of the expected firing up of RAPID’s 300 kb/d CDU later this month. A second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude arrived at RAPID last week. It seems like it’s all systems go for RAPID. But it wasn’t always so clear cut. Financing difficulties – and the 2015 crude oil price crash – put the US$27 billion project on shaky ground for a while, and it was only when Saudi Aramco swooped in to purchase a US$7 billion stake in the project that it started coalescing. Petronas had been courting Aramco since the start of the project, mainly as a crude provider, but having the Saudi giant on board was the final step towards FID. It guaranteed a stable supply of crude for Petronas; and for Aramco, RAPID gave it a foothold in a major global refining hub area as part of its strategy to expand downstream.

But RAPID will be entering into a market quite different than when it was first announced. In 2012, demand for fuel products was concentrated on light distillates; in 2019, that focus has changed. Impending new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations are requiring shippers to switch from burning cheap (and dirty) fuel oil to using cleaner middle distillate gasoils. This plays well into complex refineries like RAPID, specialising in cracking heavy and medium Arabian crude into valuable products. But the issue is that Asia and the rest of the world is currently swamped with gasoline. A whole host of new Asian refineries – the latest being the 200 kb/d Nghi Son in Vietnam – have contributed to growing volumes of gasoline with no home in Asia. Gasoline refining margins in Singapore have taken a hit, falling into negative territory for the first time in seven years. Adding RAPID to the equation places more pressure on gasoline margins, even though margins for middle distillates are still very healthy. And with three other large Asian refinery projects scheduled to come online in 2019 – one in Brunei and two in China – that glut will only grow.

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RAPID Refinery Factsheet:

  • Ownership: Petronas (50%), Saudi Aramco (50%)
  • Capacity: 300 kb/d CDU/3 mtpa olefins plant
  • Other facilities: 1.22 Gigawatt congeneration plant, 3.5 mtpa regasification terminal
  • Expected commissioning: March 2019
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Forecasting Bangladesh Tyre Market | Zulker Naeen

Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.

The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.

The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.

The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.

In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.

However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.

Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.

Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.

This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.

It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.

January, 18 2019