Ezra Holdings Limited (“Ezra”), Chiyoda Corporation (“Chiyoda”) and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (“NYK”) jointly announced that the three parties have entered into a binding agreement for NYK to invest in EMAS CHIYODA Subsea (“ECS”), which is currently a 50:50 joint-venture company owned by Ezra and Chiyoda.
Through the acquisition of shares from Ezra and Chiyoda, NYK will own 25% of ECS with Ezra and Chiyoda retaining 40% and 35% shareholding, respectively, upon completion of the transaction.
While the addition of Chiyoda’s complementary expertise added depth and breadth to ECS’ operational offerings when it was completed in March 2016, NYK’s participation is expected to augment the collective know-how and expertise in global expansion strategies, harnessed through NYK’s 130-year experience in ship management and operation.
Mr. Tadaaki Naito, President, President Corporate Officer of NYK, said, “I am delighted that we can offer another range of service in offshore
segment by joining into ECS. With reliable partners, I believe this opportunity
would create strong alliance and I am excited that we would be able to
contribute to worldwide offshore development,
including that in our home country.”
Mr. Shogo Shibuya, President and CEO of Chiyoda Corporation, said, “Under our Medium-Term Management Plan “Seize the moment, Open up new frontiers” made in 2013, Chiyoda has been focusing on expanding its business to Offshore and Upstream field. After the establishment of EMAS CHIYODA Subsea in March 2016, today, I am excited that Ezra, Chiyoda and NYK reached the agreement for NYK to join into ECS. I am confident that the participation of NYK will accelerate the growth of ECS’s capability as a leading offshore EPCI contractor.”
Commenting on this latest strategic investment, Mr. Lionel Lee, Group CEO and Managing Director of Ezra Holdings, said,
“We are extremely delighted at the latest development that has resulted from continued strategic interest in the EMAS CHIYODA Subsea business and would like to extend a warm welcome to NYK as an integral partner to the EMAS CHIYODA Subsea family. This investment by yet another established name in the offshore and marine space is a strong authentication of the strength, global standing and long-term prospects of our subsea business.”The closing of the joint venture transaction is subject to, amongst other things, the approval of Ezra’s shareholders and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions. Assuming these conditions are met, the transaction is expected to close by the third quarter of calendar year 2016.
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The Permian is in desperate need of pipelines. That much is true. There is so much shale liquids sloshing underneath the Permian formation in Texas and New Mexico, that even though it has already upended global crude market and turned the USA into the world’s largest crude producer, there is still so much of it trapped inland, unable to make the 800km journey to the Gulf Coast that would take them to the big wider world.
The stakes are high. Even though the US is poised to reach some 12 mmb/d of crude oil production next year – more than half of that coming from shale oil formations – it could be producing a lot more. This has already caused the Brent-WTI spread to widen to a constant US$10/b since mid-2018 – when the Permian’s pipeline bottlenecks first became critical – from an average of US$4/b prior to that. It is even more dramatic in the Permian itself, where crude is selling at a US$10-16/b discount to Houston WTI, with trends pointing to the spread going as wide as US$20/b soon. Estimates suggest that a record 3,722 wells were drilled in the Permian this year but never opened because the oil could not be brought to market. This is part of the reason why the US active rig count hasn’t increased as much as would have been expected when crude prices were trending towards US$80/b – there’s no point in drilling if you can’t sell.
Assistance is on the way. Between now and 2020, estimates suggest that some 2.6 mmb/d of pipeline capacity across several projects will come onstream, with an additional 1 mmb/d in the planning stages. Add this to the existing 3.1 mmb/d of takeaway capacity (and 300,000 b/d of local refining) and Permian shale oil output currently dammed away by a wall of fixed capacity could double in size when freed to make it to market.
And more pipelines keep getting announced. In the last two weeks, Jupiter Energy Group announced a 90-day open season seeking binding commitments for a planned 1 mmb/d, 1050km long Jupiter Pipeline – which could connect the Permian to all three of Texas’ deepwater ports, Houston, Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Plains All American is launching its 500,000 b/d Sunrise Pipeline, connecting the Permian to Cushing, Oklahoma. Wolf Midstream has also launched an open season, seeking interest for its 120,000 b/d Red Wolf Crude Connector branch, connecting to its existing terminal and infrastructure in Colorado City.
Current estimates suggest that Permian output numbered around 3.5 mmb/d in October. At maximum capacity, that’s still about 100,000 b/d of shale oil trapped inland. As planned pipelines come online over the next two years, that trickle could turn into a flood. Consider this. Even at the current maxing out of Permian infrastructure, the US is already on the cusp on 12 mmb/d crude production. By 2021, it could go as high as 15 mmb/d – crude prices, permitting, of course.
As recently reported in the WSJ; “For years, the companies behind the U.S. oil-and-gas boom, including Noble Energy Inc. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. have promised shareholders they have thousands of prospective wells they can drill profitably even at $40 a barrel. Some have even said they can generate returns on investment of 30%. But most shale drillers haven’t made much, if any, money at those prices. From 2012 to 2017, the 30 biggest shale producers lost more than $50 billion. Last year, when oil prices averaged about $50 a barrel, the group as a whole was barely in the black, with profits of about $1.7 billion, or roughly 1.3% of revenue, according to FactSet.”
The immense growth experienced in the Permian has consequences for the entire oil supply chain, from refining balances – shale oil is more suitable for lighter ends like gasoline, but the world is heading for a gasoline glut and is more interested in cracking gasoil for the IMO’s strict marine fuels sulphur levels coming up in 2020 – to geopolitics, by diminishing OPEC’s power and particularly Saudi Arabia’s role as a swing producer. For now, the walls keeping a Permian flood in are still standing. In two years, they won’t, with new pipeline infrastructure in place. And so the oil world has two years to prepare for the coming tsunami, but only if crude prices stay on course.
Recent Announced Permian Pipeline Projects
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 3 December 2018 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$52/b
Headlines of the week
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The number of automotive vehicles has increased by 2.5 times in the last eight years.
The demand for engine oils will rise keeping pace with the increasing automotive vehicles, with an expected 3% yearly growths.
Mostly, for this reason, the annual lubricant consumption raised over 14% growth for the last four years. Now its current demand is around 160 million tonnes.
The overall lubricants demand has increased also for the growth of the power sector, which has created a special market for industrial lubricants oil.
The lubricants oil market size for industries has doubled in the last five years due to the establishment of a number of power plants across the country.
The demand for industrial oil will continue to rise at least for the next 15 years, as the quick rental power plants need a huge quantity of lube oil to run.
The industries account for 30% of the total lubricant consumption; however, it is expected to take over 35% of the overall demand in the next 10 years.
Mobil is the market leader with 27% market share; however, market insiders say that around 70% market shares belong to various brands altogether, which is still undefined.
It is already flooded with many global and local brands.