OPEC net oil export revenues
For 2015, the U.S. Energy Informon Administration (EIA) estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned about $404 billion in net oil export revenues (unadjusted for inflation). This represents a 46% decline from the $753 billion earned in 2014, mainly as a result of a precipitous fall in average annual crude oil prices during the year, and to a lesser extent to decreases in the level of OPEC net oil exports. This revenue total was the lowest earnings for OPEC since 2010.
These net export earnings include Iran, unlike in previous reports. However, Iran's net export revenues are not adjusted for possible price discounts the country may have offered its customers between late 2011 and January 2016, when nuclear-related sanctions targeting Iran's oil sales were in place. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $130 billion in 2015, representing approximately one-third of total OPEC oil revenues.
EIA projects that OPEC net oil export revenues could fall further to about $341 billion dollars (unadjusted for inflation) in 2016, based on projections of global oil prices and OPEC production levels in EIA's June 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). On a per capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings are expected to decline by about 17% from $606 in 2015 to $503 in 2016. The expected decline in OPEC's net export earnings is attributed to lower forecast annual crude oil prices in 2016 compared with 2015. The price declines are expected to more than offset OPEC's increased production and exports in 2016. EIA's June 2016 STEO projects that OPEC crude oil production will average 32.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, 0.8 million b/d higher than in 2015. The OPEC production forecast in the June STEO excludes Gabon's output as its OPEC membership will be effective July 1, 2016.
For 2017, OPEC revenues are projected to be $427 billion, with an increase in forecast crude oil prices, coupled with higher OPEC production and exports, contributing to the rise in overall earnings.
For each country, EIA derived net oil exports based on its oil production and consumption estimates from the June 2016 edition of the STEO. For countries that export several different varieties of crude oil, EIA assumes that the proportion of total net oil exports represented by each variety is equal to the proportion of the total domestic production represented by that variety.
For example, if Arab Medium represents 20% of total oil production in Saudi Arabia, the estimate assumes that Arab Medium also represents 20% of total net oil exports from Saudi Arabia. EIA assumes that these exports are then sold at prevailing spot prices. Projected revenues are then estimated using EIA's projections for oil prices from the STEO. These projections incorporate historical price differentials between spot prices for the different OPEC crude oil types and the benchmark crude oil prices that are projected in the STEO (Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the average imported refiner crude oil acquisition cost).
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Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.
The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.
The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.
The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.
In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.
However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.
Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.
This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.
It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 14 January 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$51/b
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