ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq's Kurds are ready to strike an agreement with the central government in Baghdad on a deal to increase oil exports, if it guarantees them a monthly revenue of $1 billion (707.26 million pounds), a spokesman for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said.
Iraq's central government in March stopped oil exports through a Kurdish pipeline to pressure the local authorities to resume talks about an oil revenue sharing agreement.
Iraq's state-run North Oil Company normally exported 150,000 barrels a day through the pipeline that comes out at the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, in Turkey. The pipeline also carries oil produced in the Kurdish region in northern Iraq and sold independently from the central government.
KRG spokesman Safeen Dizayee said in an interview in the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil on Tuesday that the Kurdish authorities would be willing to sell the oil through Baghdad if they get a share from the federal budget amounting to a $1 billion a month.
"If Baghdad comes and says ok, give me all the oil that you have and I'll give you the 17 percent as per the budget, which equals to one billion, I think, logically it should be the thing to accept," he told Reuters, specifying later that the amount referred to a monthly payment in dollars.
"Whether this oil goes to the international market or first to Baghdad and then to the market, it doesn't make any difference," he said. "We are ready to enter dialogue with Baghdad."
The KRG stopped delivering crude oil to the central government a year ago, a decision taken when Baghdad's payment fell under $400 million a month, according to Dizayee.
The Kurdish region exported an average of 513,041 barrels in May through the pipeline to Turkey, generating about $391 million, of which about $75 million was paid to oil companies that produce the crude, according to KRG official estimates.
"The companies have been assured that certain amounts will be made on a monthly basis," said Dizayee, referring to the three foreign oil producers in the KRG region - DNO, Gulf Keystone and Genel.
"We have started to pay some of it, at least it has rebuilt that confidence between the government and the IPCs (oil companies," he said, referring to arrears owed to the companies.
The KRG in February said it will be paying international oil companies in 2016 according to the terms of their contracts, after making ad-hoc payments last year.
The foreign operators have been reluctant to invest and further develop assets in the region without the promise of regular payment, while the cash-strapped KRG needs production to increase as it struggles to avert an economic collapse.
By Maher Chmaytelli and Isabel Coles
(Reporting by Maher Chmaytelli and Isabel Coles; Editing by Ed Davies)
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 11 February 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$52/b
Headlines of the week
Midstream & Downstream
Global liquid fuels
Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions
2018 was a year that started with crude prices at US$62/b and ended at US$46/b. In between those two points, prices had gently risen up to peak of US$80/b as the oil world worried about the impact of new American sanctions on Iran in September before crashing down in the last two months on a rising tide of American production. What did that mean for the financial health of the industry over the last quarter and last year?
Nothing negative, it appears. With the last of the financial results from supermajors released, the world’s largest oil firms reported strong profits for Q418 and blockbuster profits for the full year 2018. Despite the blip in prices, the efforts of the supermajors – along with the rest of the industry – to keep costs in check after being burnt by the 2015 crash has paid off.
ExxonMobil, for example, may have missed analyst expectations for 4Q18 revenue at US$71.9 billion, but reported a better-than-expected net profit of US$6 billion. The latter was down 28% y-o-y, but the Q417 figure included a one-off benefit related to then-implemented US tax reform. Full year net profit was even better – up 5.7% to US$20.8 billion as upstream production rose to 4.01 mmboe/d – allowing ExxonMobil to come close to reclaiming its title of the world’s most profitable oil company.
But for now, that title is still held by Shell, which managed to eclipse ExxonMobil with full year net profits of US$21.4 billion. That’s the best annual results for the Anglo-Dutch firm since 2014; product of the deep and painful cost-cutting measures implemented after. Shell’s gamble in purchasing the BG Group for US$53 billion – which sparked a spat of asset sales to pare down debt – has paid off, with contributions from LNG trading named as a strong contributor to financial performance. Shell’s upstream output for 2018 came in at 3.78 mmb/d and the company is also looking to follow in the footsteps of ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP in the Permian, where it admits its footprint is currently ‘a bit small’.
Shell’s fellow British firm BP also reported its highest profits since 2014, doubling its net profits for the full year 2018 on a 65% jump in 4Q18 profits. It completes a long recovery for the firm, which has struggled since the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, allowing it to focus on the future – specifically US shale through the recent US$10.5 billion purchase of BHP’s Permian assets. Chevron, too, is focusing on onshore shale, as surging Permian output drove full year net profit up by 60.8% and 4Q18 net profit up by 19.9%. Chevron is also increasingly focusing on vertical integration again – to capture the full value of surging Texas crude by expanding its refining facilities in Texas, just as ExxonMobil is doing in Beaumont. French major Total’s figures may have been less impressive in percentage terms – but that it is coming from a higher 2017 base, when it outperformed its bigger supermajor cousins.
So, despite the year ending with crude prices in the doldrums, 2018 seems to be proof of Big Oil’s ability to better weather price downturns after years of discipline. Some of the control is loosening – major upstream investments have either been sanctioned or planned since 2018 – but there is still enough restraint left over to keep the oil industry in the black when trends turn sour.
Supermajor Net Profits for 4Q18 and 2018
- 4Q18 – Net profit US$6 billion (-28%);
- 2018 – Net profit US$20.8 (+5.7%)
- 4Q18 – Net profit US$5.69 billion (+32.3%);
- 2018 – Net profit US$21.4 billion (+36%)
- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.73 billion (+19.9%);
- 2018 – Net profit US$14.8 billion (+60.8%)
- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.48 billion (+65%);
- 2018 - Net profit US$12.7 billion (+105%)
- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.88 billion (+16%);
- 2018 - Net profit US$13.6 billion (+28%)