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OPEC net oil export revenue in 2015 drops to lowest level since 2004

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned $404 billion in net oil export revenue in 2015, according to recently published U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates. This represents a 46% decline from the estimated $753 billion earned in 2014 and a 56% drop from the estimated $921 billion revenue received in 2012. While these net export earnings include Iran's revenues, they are not adjusted for possible price discounts that Iran may have offered its customers between late 2011 and January 2016, when nuclear-related sanctions targeting Iran's oil sales were in place.

EIA's estimated net oil export revenue is based on its oil production and consumption estimates, as well as its forecast for oil prices from the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published in June 2016. EIA assumes that exports are sold at prevailing spot prices, and adjusts the benchmark crude oil prices that are forecasted in the STEO (Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the average imported refiner crude oil acquisition cost) to incorporate historical price differentials between spot prices for the different OPEC crude oil types. For countries that export several different varieties of crude oil, EIA assumes that the proportion of total net oil exports represented by each variety is equal to the proportion of the total domestic production represented by that variety. For example, if Arab Medium represents 20% of total oil production in Saudi Arabia, the estimate assumes that Arab Medium also represents 20% of total net oil exports from Saudi Arabia.

OPEC revenue has fallen in step with the steep decline in crude oil prices. The monthly average Brent spot price dropped from $112 per barrel (b) in June 2014 to $38/b in December 2015. Based on EIA price forecasts, which are subject to a wide range of uncertainty, OPEC revenue is expected to fall further in 2016 to $341 billion before rising to $427 billion in 2017.

OPEC members' 2015 net export revenue was the lowest since 2004, with significant implications for the fiscal condition of member countries that rely heavily on oil sales to fund social programs and import other goods and services. In inflation-adjusted terms, OPEC per capita net oil export revenue totaled $606 in 2015, down 83% from the 1980 level of $3,500.

The effects of recent declines in net oil export revenue vary across OPEC member states, depending on the degree of other export streams and existence of other financial assets. Overall, OPEC members are heavily dependent on petroleum exports for revenue, with petroleum exports accounting for 5% (Indonesia) to 99% (Iraq) of total export revenues in 2015, according to OPEC data. Broadly, countries with sizeable financial assets, such as the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates), are affected to a lesser degree than other oil producing countries such as Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela that do not have significant financial reserves. Government deficits, high reliance on oil revenue, and asset coverage of government spending are indicators of geopolitical stress exposure. Therefore, countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq, with fewer financial assets, are more exposed to geopolitical stress than countries with greater financial assets.

While declining crude oil prices have been the main driver behind lower OPEC revenues since mid-2014, unplanned production outages among some OPEC members have also contributed to lower earnings. A number of OPEC countries have experienced relatively high levels of unplanned outages. Some of these are because of political factors, such as the sanctions-related production shut-ins in Iran between 2011 and early 2016, when roughly 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) remained off the market. Since January 2016, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was implemented, Iran has been able to increase its crude oil production to presanctions levels of about 3.6 million b/d, with unplanned disruptions effectively disappearing at that time.

Other unplanned outages are related to armed conflict and militant activity. Libya, for example, has struggled to maintain crude oil production and exports since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011. Political infighting and outright armed conflict among opposing factions since then led to an average shut-in volume of more than 1.0 million b/d of crude oil in 2015, with crude oil production averaging only about 0.4 million b/d during the year. Most recently, opposing factions have been clashing for control over the country's oil export terminals, and lack of available oil export outlets has necessitated that most of Libya's production capacity remain shut in. EIA estimates that Libya's effective production capacity currently stands at 1.3 million b/d with roughly 1.0 million b/d shut in. Libya's crude oil production was 0.3 million b/d in July 2016.

During 2015, Nigeria experienced a relatively low level of crude oil disruptions, which averaged roughly 0.3 million b/d. However, since the beginning of 2016, militant groups have stepped up their attacks in the Niger Delta region, an oil-rich area bordering the Gulf of Guinea that is the mainstay of the country's crude production. So far this year, there have been numerous attacks on oil and natural gas infrastructure throughout the region, largely in response the reduction in amnesty payments and the termination of security contracts to former militants. EIA estimates that Nigeria's production shut-ins were 0.7 million b/d in July, with production averaging less than 1.5 million b/d. EIA estimates that Nigeria's effective production capacity stands at roughly 2.2 million b/d.

In addition to price, unplanned production outages are another source of uncertainty for EIA's OPEC net export revenue estimate. For example, in Venezuela, crude oil production has declined sharply since the end of 2015, as oil service companies have largely stopped work in response to a lack of payment by state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA). As a result, Venezuela's crude oil production declined from an estimated 2.4 million b/d in December 2015 to 2.1 million b/d in July 2016. EIA's crude oil production forecast for Venezuela includes further declines through the end of 2017, but Venezuela's production forecast faces considerable downside risk as PdVSA's financial situation may result in accelerated production declines.

The weekly estimates of domestic crude oil production are reviewed monthly to identify disconnects with recent trends in domestic production reported in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and other current data. If a disconnect between the two series is observed, the weekly production estimate may be re-benchmarked on a monthly basis to address it. This week's domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking. Any subsequent re-benchmarking of the weekly production estimate will be implemented on weeks when EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is released.

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price was $2.15 per gallon on August 15, virtually unchanged from the previous week but down 57 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast prices each increased one cent to $2.12 per gallon, $2.08 per gallon, and $1.94 per gallon, respectively. These increases were offset by a four cent price drop in the West Coast to $2.53 per gallon and a more modest decline in the Rocky Mountains, down one cent to $2.21 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell by one cent to $2.31 per gallon, down 31 cents from the same time last year. The West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast prices each fell one cent to $2.58 per gallon, $2.31 per gallon, and $2.18 per gallon, respectively. The Rocky Mountain and Midwest prices remained virtually unchanged at $2.39 per gallon and $2.27 per gallon, respectively.

U.S. propane stocks increased by 1.8 million barrels last week to 93.7 million barrels as of August 12, 2016, 0.1 million barrels (0.1%) lower than a year ago. East Coast and Gulf Coast inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels and 0.7 million barrels, respectively, while Midwest and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories each increased by 0.1 million barrels. Polypropylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 2.4% of total propane inventories.

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The Australian 590 Student Guardian Visa Process In A Nutshell

Student guardian visa subclass 590 allows you to stay in Australia as a guardian or custodian or relative of an overseas student who is pursuing an education course in Australia. With 590 student guardian visa, You can stay with your child to take care of him/her in Australia until the course complete. Your child age must below then 18th years old before applying for a student guardian visa 590. If you're a relative then you can stay with the child by submitting written permission of a child’s caretakers like a guardian or grandparents. If your child is older then eighteen years then to apply for visa subclass 590 you need to show that you have special emergency circumstances. You can apply for a 590 student guardian visa outside from Australia and acquire enrollment in alternative courses up to three months with a 590 visa. You will be authorized to take care more then one child if you have. You can do the other study or coach just for 3 months with this Student Guardian Visa Subclass 590

Step By Step Process About 590 Visa

1.Before Applying for Visa

Meet Eligibility Criteria

    • You must be a parent or grandparents or relative of a non-Australian child who is below 18th of age.

    • If you want to apply from inside of Australia then you need to hold a substantive visa except for domestic worker, temporary work visa, transit visa, visitor visa, etc.

    • If your another child who is below 18th and not coming to Australia with you then you need to give evidence that you have made welfare arrangement for the child.

    • You have to account for your all healthcare expenses so make sure that medical insurance can only reduce your expenses.

    • Your past immigration history must be credible like you must not have any visa cancellation history.

    • Your intention should be genuine at the time of applying for student guardian visa 590 and it should be not against Australian culture and policies.

    • If your family members are also applying with you then they also need to meet health policies of the Australian government

    • Only a parent or grandparents or custodian or step parents of an overseas student visa 500 holder can apply for this student guardian visa subclass 590.

    • If parents are not present due to any reason for looking after the visa subclass 500 holder student then any relative can apply for this 590 student guardian visa. 

    • You must be a guardian of an international student who must be below 18th of age except for exceptional circumstances.

    • You have to give assurance to immigration authorities that you will be able to provide welfare.

    • Your age must be above 21 years old before going to apply for a student guardian visa 590.

    • You have to pay back any type of debt to the Australian government if you have.

    • If you have another child aged 6 years old then you can bring him/her to Australia but if your child if older then 6           years then you need to show emergency condition to bring him/her to Australia.

  Collect Documents

    •Provide character certificate and other national identities.

    •Submit bank documents and salary slips to prove that you will be enough capable to give welfare to the student.

    •Provide guardianship documents to prove your credibility to that child.

    •Translate your non-English documents into English.

    •Submit legal student guardianship form.

    •Provide dependent under 6 documents if you bring your child who is under 6 years of age.

2. Processing Time And Cost Of This Visa

Visa subclass 590 cost starts from AUD 560. This visa 590 may proceed in 2 to 4 months. But in case you forget to submit any documents then you processing time of visa can be increased. Your visa application processing time can be increased if you provide incomplete information.

3. Apply For The Visa

You need to apply online for the 590 student guardian visa 6 weeks before the student’s course starts. At the time applying for the visa, you have to prove that you are genuine and legal applicant by submitting legal documents. If you submit illegal information to immigration authorities then they have the authority to cancel your visa application immediately. You and your relative which is listed in visa application will not able to get a visa for the next 10 years in case of any fraud by you. You should contact an experienced Immigration Agent Adelaide.

4. Conditions After You Have Applied For The Visa

    • You are not allowed to do any type of work in Australia.

    • You can study only for 3 months.

    • With visa subclass 590 you can’t apply for another visa

    • At the time of leaving Australia, you must have brought the student to your country.

    • If you have another child who is below 6th years of age then you can bring him/her to Australia.

Get The Direction To Migration Agent Adelaide - ISA Migrations and Education Consultants.



August, 21 2019
TODAY IN ENERGY: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018

U.S. petroleum and natural gas production increased by 16% and by 12%, respectively, in 2018, and these totals combined established a new production record. The United States surpassed Russia in 2011 to become the world's largest producer of natural gas and surpassed Saudi Arabia in 2018 to become the world's largest producer of petroleum. Last year’s increase in the United States was one of the largest absolute petroleum and natural gas production increases from a single country in history.

For the United States and Russia, petroleum and natural gas production is almost evenly split; Saudi Arabia's production heavily favors petroleum. Petroleum production is composed of several types of liquid fuels, including crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), and bitumen. The United States produced 28.7 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of petroleum in 2018, which was composed of 80% crude oil and condensate and 20% NGPLs.

estimated petroleum and natural gas production in selected countries

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on International Energy Statistics
Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids.

U.S. crude oil production increased by 17% in 2018, setting a new record of nearly 11.0 million barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to 22.8 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in energy terms. Production in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico contributed to most of the growth in U.S. crude oil production. The United States also produced 4.3 million b/d of NGPLs in 2018, equivalent to 5.8 quadrillion Btu. U.S. NGPL production has more than doubled since 2008, when the market for NGPLs began to expand.

U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 12% in 2018 to 28.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 31.5 quadrillion Btu, reaching a new record high for the second year in a row. Ongoing growth in liquefied natural gas export capacity and the expanded ability to reach new markets have supported increases in U.S. natural gas production.

Russia’s crude oil and natural gas production also reached record levels in 2018, encouraged by increasing global demand. Russia exports most of the crude oil that it produces to European countries and to China. Since 2016, nearly 60% of Russia’s crude oil exports have gone to European member countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Russia’s crude oil is also an important source of supply to China and neighboring countries.

Russia’s natural gas production increased by 7% in 2018, which exceeded the growth in exports. The Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, which loaded its first cargo in December 2017, can liquefy more than 16 million tons of natural gas annually and accounts for almost all of the recent growth in Russia’s LNG exports. Since 2000, more than 80% of Russia’s natural gas exports have been sent to Europe.

Saudi Arabia’s annual average crude oil production increased slightly in 2018, but it remained lower than in 2016, when Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output reached a record high. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production reached an all-time monthly high in November 2018 before the December 2018 agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend production cuts.

In addition to exporting and refining crude oil, Saudi Arabia consumes crude oil directly for electricity generation, which makes Saudi Arabian crude oil consumption highest in the summer when electricity demand for space cooling is relatively high. Since 2016, Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn for electric power generation has decreased for a number of reasons, including demand reductions from a partial withdraw of power subsidies, greater use of residual fuel oil, and increased availability of domestic natural gas.

Crude oil exports account for about 60% of Saudi Arabia’s total economic output. China, along with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States remain critical markets for Saudi Arabia’s petroleum exports.

August, 21 2019
Your Weekly Update: 12 - 16 August 2019

Market Watch 

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 12 August 2019 – Brent: US$58/b; WTI: US$54/b

  • Saudi Arabia’s overtures to further stabilise prices was met with a largely positive response by the market, allowing crude prices to claw back some ground after being hammered by demand concerns
  • Saudi officials reportedly called other members in the OPEC and OPEC+ producer clubs to discuss options on how to stem the recent rout in prices, with an anonymous official quoted as saying that it ‘would not tolerate continued price weakness’
  • Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia plans to keep its oil exports at below 7 mmb/d in September according to sales allocations, which was seen as a stabilising factor in crude price trends
  • This came after crude prices fell as the US-China trade war entered a new front, causing weakness in the Chinese Yuan, although President Trump has floated the idea of delaying the new round of tariffs beyond the current implementation timeline of September 1
  • Crude had also fallen in response to a slide in American crude oil stockpiles and a receding level of tensions in the Persian Gulf
  • In a new report, the International Energy Agency said that the outlook for global oil demand is ‘fragile’ on signs of an economic slowdown; there is also concern that China will target US crude if the US moves ahead with its tariff plan
  • The US active rig count lost another 8 rigs – 6 oil and 2 gas – the sixth consecutive weekly loss that brought the total number of active rigs to 934
  • Demand fears will continue to haunt the market, which will not be offset so easily of Saudi-led efforts to limit production; as a result, crude prices will trade rangebound with a negative slant in the US$56-58/b range for Brent and US$52-54/b for WTI


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Nearly all Anadarko shareholders have approved the Occidental Petroleum deal, completing the controversial takeover bid despite investor Carl Icahn’s attempts to derail the purchase
  • Crude oil inventories in Western Canada have fallen by 2.75 million barrels m-o-m to its lowest level since November 2017, as the production limits in Alberta appear to be doing their job in limiting a supply glut while output curbs are slowly being loosened on the arrival of more rail and pipeline capacity
  • Mid-sized Colorado players PDC Energy and SRC Energy – both active in the Denver-Julesburg Basin – are reportedly in discussion to merge their operations
  • Pemex has been granted approval by the National Hydrocarbon Commission to invest US$10 billion over 25 years to develop onshore and offshore exploration opportunities in Mexico
  • Qatar Investment Authority has acquired a ‘significant stake’ in major Permian player Oryx Midstream Services from Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners for some US$550 million, as foreign investment in the basin increases
  • PDVSA and CNPC’s Venezuelan joint venture Sinovensa has announced plans to expand blending capacity – lightening up extra-heavy Orinoco crude to medium-grade Merey – from a current 110,000 b/d to 165,000 b/d
  • BHP has approved an additional US$283 million in funding for the Ruby oil and gas project in Trinidad and Tobago, with first production expected in 2021
  • CNPC, ONGC Videsh and Petronas have reportedly walked away from their onshore acreage in Sudan, blaming unpaid oil dues on production from onshore Blocks 2A and 4 that have already reached more than US$500 million

Midstream/Downstream

  • Expected completion of Nigeria’s huge planned 650 kb/d Dangote refinery has been delayed to the end of 2020, with issues importing steel and equipment cited
  • Saudi Aramco’s US refining arm Motiva announced plans to shut several key units at its 607 kb/d Port Arthur facility in Texas for a 2-month planned maintenance, affecting its 325 kb/d CDU and the naphtha processing plant
  • ADNOC has purchased a 10% stake in global terminal operator VTTI, expanding its terminalling capacity in Asia, Africa and Europe
  • A little-known Chinese contractor Wison Engineering Services has reportedly agreed to refurbish Venezuela’s main refineries in a barter deal for oil produced, in a bid for Venezuela to evade the current US sanctions on its crude exports
  • Swiss downstream player Varo Energy will increase its stake in the 229 kb/d Bayernoil complex in Germany to 55% after purchasing BP’s 10% stake
  • India has raised the projected cost estimate of its giant planned refinery in Maharashtra – a joint venture between Indian state oil firms with Saudi Aramco and ADNOC – to US$60 billion, after farmer protests forced a relocation

Natural Gas/LNG

  • The government of Australia’s New South Wales has given its backing to South Korea’s Epik and its plan to build a new LNG import terminal in Newcastle
  • Kosmos Energy is proposing to build two new LNG facilities to tap into deepwater gas resources offshore Mauritania and Senegal under development
  • In the middle of the Pacific, the French territory of New Caledonia has started work on its Centrale Pays Project, a floating LNG terminal with an accompanying 200-megawatt power plant, with Nouvelle-Caledonia Energie seeking a 15-year LNG sales contract for roughly 200,000 tons per year
August, 16 2019