Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of PetroEdge
Last Updated: January 1, 2017
1 view
Business Trends
image

Oil in 2017

With OPEC defying the pessimists and actually agreeing on a production freeze, oil prices have rallied. Will this be a good sign as we enter into 2017? The World Bank predicts that oil prices would average US$53-55/b over 2017, a sentiment echoed by the EIA in the US. Both have no issued new forecasts since OPEC’s agreement to slash production by 1.2 mb/d, but it is likely that the target range has now shifted to the a range of US$60-65/b.

With Saudi Arabia already informing its customers of cuts in their January 2017 deliveries, it seems there is will enough within OPEC to follow through on the agreement. The issue now moved from agreement to enforcement, and therein lies some thorns. Historically, the Gulf state – Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait – have been the most disciplined in enforcing cuts, with members elsewhere – Venezuela, Ecuador and Angola – more likely to discreetly flout the quotas. OPEC is also meeting with some non-OPEC producers in Vienna this week to see if consensus can be made on non-OPEC cuts; Russia has publically agreed to a 300 kb/d cut (with caveats, of course), and OPEC says a non-OPEC cut of 600 kb/d is a ‘must.’

This might be an issue in the US, particularly with the new Trump administration that wishes to encourage drilling. While oil prices rose immediately in the wake of the OPEC announcement, they fell back quickly again as US oil production announced a weekly increase. The Baker Hughes survey of active oil rigs in the US has risen to its highest weekly level in almost a year, as onshore producers restarted rigs in response to higher price signal. From US$55/b last Thursday, crude oil prices are now in the low US$50s. Donald Trump’s provisional cabinet is full of climate skeptics and energy bulls and he has named Scott Pruitt as the head of the new American Environmental Protection Agency, with the fossil fuel industry ally is likely to call for further deregulation in American hydrocarbons. With Keystone XL back as a possibility and longer-term moves to open up drilling in new areas like the Arctic likely, it could unleash a new wave of oil in the market depressing prices. The US under Trump is not going to agree to any supply cuts, which may very well defeat the entire purpose of the OPEC exercise. Saudi Arabia’s attempt to wipe up US shale oil by keeping prices down has only kept the shale producers at bay, who will return once prices hit a decent level. This ebb and flow will persist, and we believe a general oversupply will endure.

Here’s our prediction. The OPEC quotas will hold, but the cuts will not be as deep as envisioned because some members – especially Iran – will take advantage of the situation to sneak extra sales. The big producers – Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran will focus on relative pricing to defend their market share. American production will continue to be nimbly driven by price signals, balancing out the cuts elsewhere. Oil prices will strengthen – probably to the US$55-60/b level – which is a good place to be, all things considered. It won’t be the dramatic recovery that many will hope for, but it won’t be a complete collapse either, and in this environment that’s good enough already.

Natural Gas in 2017

With OPEC and a group of major non-OPEC producers coming together to agree on shave up to 1.8 mb/d in their oil production, it is a rising tide that will lift all other energy commodities. This includes natural gas, once the red-headed cousin of oil but now a crowning beauty of its own.

In the natural gas space, this will lead to higher prices for pipeline gas, rising slightly from prices that are already relatively cheap. With a cold winter expected, natural gas demand will be high in the northern hemisphere as well, while domestic consumption in both Europe and the US is on a steady growth trend. However, the bigger impact will be in the LNG space.

On the LNG side, higher crude prices means higher LNG prices. Spot prices in Asia have already hit US$8.10/mmbtu in the last week, the highest since mid-2015, due to the OPEC agreement and cold weather in north Asia and Europe. LNG, though, is a contract market. It is estimated that some 80% of LNG sold in the world in based on long-term contracts linked to oil. Typically a function of oil, indexation may vary but the general rule of thumb is that a US$1/b increase leads to a US$0.07-0.15/mmbtu increase in oil-indexed LNG contract prices. But those are for existing contracts, inherited from the days when the seller was king and could command all sorts of price structures – S-curves, for example - to benefit them. Today, that is a thing of the past. With the glut of LNG currently existing and more still to come – Wheatstone and Gorgon in Australia being the two big ones in 2017 – LNG has been a buyer’s market for the last two years And the buyers are getting bolder.

Specifically, the Japanese buyers are getting bolder. If 2015 and 2016 were the years when Japanese buyers realised that a low price environment gave them far more clout, 2017 will be the year when they begin to assert themselves. Moves towards this are already happening. Japan is trying to render location destination clauses in existing long-term LNG contracts void through anti-competitive laws, which would free Japan buyers like Tokyo Gas and Chubu Electric to swap and re-route cargoes, instead of being locked into specific ports. Newer contracts will probably have to do away with the clauses altogether. This creates a more dynamic environment where buyers can move their LNG cargoes around based on supply and demand, effectively becoming traders. It is a step towards creating an Asia trading hub for LNG, with Singapore having already developed its own sport LNG price assessments and agreeing to work with Japan to possibly create a Singapore-Japan benchmark. China and Korea, both large LNG consumers as well, have also launched attempts of their own, with the Shanghai gas derivatives exchange starting up last month. Efforts towards this will continue, and 2017 will see a more vibrant LNG trading market.

Looking ahead, there is so much LNG coming onto the market that it is almost a tsunami. Canada’s projects on the BC Pacific Coast. The US Gulf of Mexico projects, with the newly-expanded Panama Canal as a conduit. The vast projects off Western Australia. Plenty of supply coming from Mozambique and Papua New Guinea as well. All of these volumes will be chasing Asian clients. LNG will be a buyer’s market for a long time to come, and 2017 will be the year that companies, utilities and governments will step up to expand and create infrastructure to support a gas-rich future.

Downstream Oil in 2017

The upstream portion of the oil industry is ending the year on a bit of a cheer, with rallying crude prices. In the downstream section, however, it has been a challenging year and 2017 repeats the same situation as 2016.

Looking specifically at Asia, refined oil product demand is slowing down. Part of this is due to the natural decline in Japan and South Korea, and part of this is due to a natural deceleration in China, where annual growth rates at 9-10% could never be sustained indefinitely. Demand growth in India and developing economies is improving, but years of high oil prices have pushed their infrastructure in different directions, not necessarily to the benefit of oil, even in a lower price environment.

Even if there is good demand growth, not all of it will benefit refineries. One bright spark in the downstream arena has been petrochemicals, with countries like China still adding capacity. Traditionally, these have depended on naphtha as their feedstock – hence the trend over the past decade for integrated refinery-petchem facilities. US shale gas remains a gamechanger here. There is so much ethane (and to a lesser extent, LPG liquids propane and butane) coming out of the US that prices are low and petrochemical operations in Asia are reconfiguring to focus on natural gas liquids as feedstock. BP estimates that a third of global downstream demand growth may bypass refineries altogether, placing further pressure on refineries.

This is not good for refiners. In general, refined oil product cracks in Asia have been at historical lows in 2016, thought there are few bright spots like naphtha. Though this will ebb and flow depending on shortages and seasonal demand, the overall trend is shrinking cracks. Cheap oil prices have not caused an equivalent surge in Asian oil demand. In fact, there is simply too much product sloshing around the market. This is been exacerbated in 2016 when Chinese independent refiners – the teapots – were granted licences to import crude for the first time, leading to them raising runs to records levels and lifting Chinese exports. Far from being a ‘sink’ for refined products, China is now becoming a net exporter. However, in a move last week, China removed export quotas for the teapots, effectively preventing them from exporting any of their products. Their import licences may still be held steady, but the teapots will now have to consider the limited domestic market when planning runs. This could improve the supply glut in Asia somewhat, but traditional product ‘sinks’ are evolving on their own.

Vietnam’s second refinery, Nghi Son, is supposed to start up in mid-2017. It will face delays. And if Dong Quat is any precedent, Nghi Son will face production troubles in its first year. So Vietnam will remain a reliable product ‘sink’ in 2017, but this will dissipate when Nghi Son comes onstream. India, where oil product growth has been strong this year, will also absorb major amounts of products, but the Indian refiners – IOC, BPCL and HPCL – all have extensive capacity upgrade plans over the next five years, removing this window. Indonesia continues to claim ambitious refining plans that could potentially eliminate the need for imports, but it has been spouting this line for a decade now and there seems to be little movement beyond announcement in this arena, leaving Indonesia a large ‘sink’ for the time being. But Indonesian oil product specs are generally lower than the average Asian standards, limiting the refineries it can buy product from. There will be growth else – notably Myanmar and Bangladesh – but this will be unable to offset the declines in Japan and South Korea.

This is a death knell for major export-oriented refinery projects in Asia. Projects like Petronas’ RAPID in Malaysia, due for startup in 2019, will go ahead, but fewer will make it off the drawing board. New refineries will be contained to net importer countries, as they try to reduce their import burden, as we have seen this year in Pakistan, Uganda and Middle East countries moving up the value chain. Product demands will also continue to move up the barrel, placing more pressure on simple, topping refineries. 2016 saw a slew of refinery sales and closures in Europe – even low oil prices couldn’t help a determined structural trend – and that is a likely future for Asian downstream. There will be no major surprised downstream in 2017, just confirmation of ongoing trends.

Corporate Oil in 2017

Rex Tillerson, head of ExxonMobil since 2006, is packing his bags and heading to the White House to serve as Donald Trump’s Secretary of State. As part of his job, he will be jetting around the world promoting American interests. That’s not much different in scope from his current position, except that corporate deal-making is very different from diplomacy.

It’s an indication that 2017 will be a pivot away from prevailing corporate trends in the energy business. Under Tillerson, US ties with Russia are likely to get closer, as the Trump administration places business and capitalist interests above issues such as healthcare, environment and social justice that have taken the forefront. Tillerson will pass his seat to Darren Woods, the current head of refining at ExxonMobil, with the company likely to be the only one that will pursue a diversified strategy among the supermajors. Under Woods, ExxonMobil’s refining arm has remained strong despite low margins, having already embarked on a divestment drive that saw the company dispose of peripheral assets in marginal markets.

ExxonMobil, like Shell and Chevron, will remain global brands. But the assets will no longer be controlled by them. Shell has been following ExxonMobil’s move, selling its downstream and upstream assets globally to pay for its pricey acquisition of the BG Group. Natural gas and chemicals are in Shell’s future, with downstream now of lesser concern; Shell, like ExxonMobil in Latin America, will now merely licences its name to third-party players. BP has already done the same over the last decade, with its logo now a rarity in retail across the world, though oddly enough it is tying up with Reliance in India. Chevron’s divestment extends further than downstream, moving into smaller-scale upstream assets, with its attempt to exit Bangladesh and Thailand in recent months. 2016 has been a year of divestments and debt-paring among the supermajors as they seek to become leaner and meaner, just like Petrobras, though for completely different reasons. Meanwhile, France’s Total still has ambitions of being a global behemoth that the supermajors once were, picking up assets in Asia and Africa. This will continue in 2017, with the directions clear. Shell to natural gas and chemicals, BP to LNG, Chevron to large-scale upstream and ExxonMobil everywhere, with top priority to sort out its acquisition of InterOil in PNG.

The vacuum left by the supermajors particularly in downstream has been picked up by global traders. Players like Vitol, Glencore and Gunvor have been extending their trading empires to actual retail participation since 2013, and the move will continue in 2017. Some might even try to set up brands of their own, instead of piggy-backing on existing ones (and their associated licensing fees).

Meanwhile, the national counterparts of the supermajors, the major NOCs, will still find 2017 a challenging year. Oil prices have risen, but nowhere near the level that required to balance national budgets. Saudi Aramco and to a lesser extent Adnoc and KPC have the reserves to see through the storm, but PDVSA is in trouble. Iraq and Iran will flout OPEC supply quotas to sneak a few extra sales to resume what they see as their rightful position, while Libya tries to rebuild its infrastructure and Nigeria tries its hand at privatisation. Indonesia’s Pertamina will continue to flounder in too many directions, Malaysia’s Petronas will remain weak and Brazil’s Petrobras will continue its fire sale to reduce its huge debts. China’s triad – PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC – will continue to extend their tendrils oversees, while Japan’s bloated energy sector will try to consolidate. And largely fail, resulting in a friendly informal cooperation instead. Russia has a lot of debt issues simmering under Putin’s bluster. India’s state players are probably in the best position, where energy demand is sprinting ahead.

Higher crude oil prices will be a good way to start off 2017 for most energy companies; but there’s still a lot of work to be done. Much like the global political landscape, corporate energy players will become more insular, focusing on specific areas of profit instead of a broad-based strategy. The notion of an integrated player with tentacles in every pie is over. With the possible exception of ExxonMobil.

Have a productive year ahead!

 

3
6 0

Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today

Latest NrgBuzz

LNG Is Coming To The Philippines

It seems to have been a topic that has been discussed for years, but a decision could finally be made. The Philippines has short-listed three different groups who are in the running to build the country’s first LNG import terminal, whittling them down from an initial 18 that submitted project proposals. The final three consist of the Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC), a joint venture between Tokyo Gas and domestic firm First Gen Corp and China’s CNOOC. The Philippines hopes to choose the final group by the end of November – an optimistic decision that belies that many, many complications that have come before.

First of all, the make-up of only one of the groups has been finalised. A local partner is a requirement for this project; CNOOC has yet to officially tie-up, although it has been talking to Manila-based Phoenix Petroleum, while state oil firm PNOC does not have a (deep-pocketed) partner yet. Firms including Chevron, Dubai’s Lloyds Energy Group and Japan’s JERA have reportedly contacted PNOC to express their interest, but a month before the Philippines wants to make a decision, its own home-grown hero hasn’t yet got its ducks lined up in a row.

And time is of essence. The once giant Malampaya gas field is running out of resources. Supplying piped natural gas to three power plants that feeds some 45% of Luzon’s electricity requirements, the Shell-operated field is expected to be completely depleted by 2024. With the country aiming to move away from burning coal or (imported) gasoil for power, gas is needed to replace gas. Even though the Philippines is pushing for a bilateral agreement with China to pave to way for joint exploration activities in disputed areas of the South China Sea – to the consternation of its citizens – any discovery in the Palawan basin or Scarborough Shoal will be years from commercialisation.

So LNG is the answer. And LNG has been the answer since 2008, when the need for an LNG import terminal was first identified. And it is not like no projects have been proposed – Australia’s Energy World Corp (EWC) has been wanting to build an LNG receiving terminal and power station in the Quezon province near Manila for years, but the project has been described as ‘trapped in a bureaucratic quagmire’ due to hurdles from various government agencies, or stymied by groups with competing interests.

PNOC itself has been wanting to build its own terminal in Batangas, within range of existing gas and power transmission facilities currently drawing Malampaya gas. But, just like Pertamina in Indonesia, it is cash-strapped and unable to drive the project on its own, hence the requirement for a partner/s. First Gen Corp and Phoenix Petroleum are both private players, with First Gen already operating four of the country’s five gas-fired plants while Phoenix Petroleum has close ties with CNOOC Gas.

Many announcements have been made and gone, but with this shortlist of three groups, it does finally look like the Philippines will be able to get its LNG ambitions of the ground. And it is thinking even bigger; wanting the terminal to become a LNG trading hub for the region – capitalising on the existing habit of ship-to-ship transfers of LNG cargoes into smaller parcels in the Philippine waters for delivery into southern China – challenging existing ambitions in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. But perhaps that is getting a bit ahead of themselves. Getting a project – any LNG project – off the ground is the first priority. And the rest can come after that.

Other Proposed LNG Projects In The Philippines:

  • Shell’s LNG import terminal in Batangas, near the Shell Batangas refinery
  • Glencore’s FSRU project, connected to an onshore power plant
  • South Korea’s SK Group’s 5 mtpa LNG import terminal in Luzon
  • Energy World Corp’s integrated LNG-power project in Quezon
November, 13 2018
Your Weekly Update: 5 - 9 November 2018

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 5 November 2018 – Brent: US$72/b; WTI: US$62/b

  • It’s down, down, down for crude oil prices as the impact of American sanctions on Iranian crude exports was muted by increased supply from OPEC+ nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia
  • America granted waivers to eight nations – including India, Japan, South Korea and possibly China – which would allow them to continue importing Iranian crude after November 3, though the exact terms of the waivers are still in discussion
  • The number of waivers issued was larger than the market expected, but traders also remain worried about the growing trade spat between the US and China, although President Donald Trump has struck a more conciliatory tone recently
  • However, the midterm elections in the US resulted in the Democrats seizing the House but losing ground in the Senate – an imperfect result that could nonetheless still frustrate Trump’s economic and trade agenda
  • With the impact of Iranian sanctions proving to be less dramatic than expected – although fireworks should be expected at the upcoming OPEC meeting Vienna next month – crude prices have lost much of the supply-risk premium it gained over the past three months
  • With crude prices abated, American drillers are following suit, reducing the active American rig count by one with the closure of one oil rig
  • Crude price outlook: Prices should continue to head downwards as the risk of a supply crunch abates; Brent will test the US$70/b level again, with WTI likely to maintain its US$10/b discount to Brent

 

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • BP has completed its US$10.5 billion acquisition of BHP Billiton’s US unconventional assets, which will add some 190,000 boe/d of production and 4.6 billion oil equivalent barrels in reserves to BP’s coffers
  • Total reports that its upstream production in the Republic of Congo has exceeded expectations, with current production at some 200,000 b/d
  • ConocoPhillips has completed the sales of its Barnett shale assets in North Texas to Lime Rock Resources for US$230 million
  • Apache is accelerating plans from its Garten discovery in the UK North Sea, bringing it forward from Q119 to Q418, with 1 million barrels recoverable
  • Also in the North Sea, the UK Oil and Gas Authority has approve Senrica Energy’s Field Development Plan for the Columbus Development, with target start-up aimed at mid-2021 with peak output at 7,800 boe/d
  • Total has received consent from Petroleum Safety Authority Norway to extend the operational life of the Skirne and Byggve fields to March 2024
  • Equinor has made a ‘significant new oil discovery’ at the Barents Sea Skruis well in the Johan Castberg licence, with 12-25 million recoverable barrels of oil
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach has signed two new agreements – with Total and Eni – in an exclusive partnership for offshore exploration in Algeria
  • Argentina has launched its first-ever offshore licensing round, putting up 38 blocks in the Austral Marine, West Malvinas and Argentina basins

Downstream

  • As Saudi Aramco prepares to buy a controlling stake in SABIC, the two Saudi Arabian giants have announced the development of an integrated 400 kb/d crude-to-chemicals project, to be located at Yanbu on the Red Sea
  • A spat of fuel thefts in Mexico has curtailed gasoline and diesel supply in Mexico, with BP, Total and Pemex all reporting shortages across the country
  • ExxonMobil has started up a new coker unit at its Antwerp refinery in Belgium, expanding capacity for heavy conversion by some 50,000 b/d
  • BASF has signed a new MoU with China’s Sinopec to build a steam cracker in Nanjing, the chemical giant’s second major Chinese investment in four months

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Yet another US LNG facility has received its environmental impact statement from the US FERC, with Texas LNG’s Brownsville site receiving it just days after Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass LNG received theirs
  • The Cameron LNG project has begun the commissioning Phase 1 of its LNG export site in Hackberry, Louisiana, the first of a planned five phases that would have an eventual capacity of up to 24.92 mtpa
  • TransCanada Corporation has greenlit the US$1.5 billion NOVA Gas Transmission expansion, which will connect markets in North America to natural gas production sites in Alberta and British Columbia
  • Noble Energy announced that the Leviathan project is at 67% completion, and first gas from the Israeli gas project is expected by the end of 2019
  • India’s Petronet LNG and ONGC Videsh are reportedly in talks to buy a stake in the proposed Driftwood LNG project by Tellurian in Louisiana
  • Japan’s Osaka Gas says it will begin evaluating expanding its operations to developing markets in Southeast Asia like Vietnam, where shrinking demand supply and growing demand is creating a huge potential market for LNG
November, 09 2018
Risks of working in Oil and Gas sector

It is a well-known fact that the oil and gas industry has a lot to offer in terms of opportunities - paycheck, lifestyle, and work-life balance. However, like everything else in life, it has a flip side as well. If you are planning to make a career in oil and gas industry, it is important to know the cons as well. Here is a list of risks associated with working in oil and gas industry that you must know to make an informed decision.

Highly competitive: survival of the fittest 

Oil and gas industry is highly competitive and dynamic in nature. The job requires high level of expertise and productivity. With digitization and automation of the industry, the work functions are changing rapidly. The employees who cannot cope up and upskill with changing time and need will be automatically pushed out of the system. The foremost challenge in oil and gas industry is to stay relevant and keep upskilling.

Long work hours

Some job functions in oil industry like offshore rig workers have to work in 12-hours shift, seven days a week and for seven to 28 days in one stretch. Sometimes, overtime is also expected due to emergency or to manage the project deadlines. However, the oil companies do give equal amount of resting period to the rig workers to compensate for the long working hours. Even then, the continuous long hours is strenuous for the workforce.

The accident-prone work environment

Although rigorous safety trainings are provided to the workforce along with numerous safety measures and laws in place; accidents do occur. Sometimes, these accidents can be life-threatening. Here is quick overview of the possible accidents that you might encounter:

  • Vehicle accident- It is considered as the number 1 cause of fatality in oil and gas industry. It can happen while driving to pipelines, gas sites, pumping stations, transit between sites and any other place due to heavy loads, rash driving, fatigue or extreme weather conditions.
  • Explosion & fire- Oil companies are extremely cautious about fire and explosion safety and follow strict guidelines and standards to prevent fire hazard on drilling sites and injuries related to it. Emergency exits, action plans and fire prevention plan along with flame-resistant clothing are ensured. However, it is in best interest to stay updated about the latest in the safety measures.

Risk of confined space and fall- The line workers in oil and gas industry sometimes work in confined spaces like mud pits, reserve pits, storage tanks, sand storage, and other excavated areas, where they are exposed to potential risk of ignition of inflammable vapors, exposure to harmful chemicals, and asphyxiation. Additionally, these kinds of workplaces involve risk of falls, slips and trips too which can cause severe injuries and can even turn fatal. Though the companies are extremely careful and take all safety precautions, but the risk cannot be ruled out.

  • Chemical exposure- Chemical exposure at oil and gas industry is hazardous and it includes risk due to:
  • Mixed exposures of silica, DPM, VOCs, etc.
  • Multiple exposure through various routes like inhalation and ingestion
  • Dermal exposures risk due to Pb, Solvents, PAH’s

Additionally, frequent exposure to chemicals used in refineries and drilling operations can impact long-term health. To offset these dangers, oil and gas companies provide comprehensive training to employees to ensure safety protocols and site-specific features.

Working in remote location

The oil and gas professionals have to work on remote location for exploration, offshore duties, pumping stations, gas plants and more. The workers in remote location often feel isolated and they are on their own to cope up with numerous work-related accidents and health hazards.

Working in oil and gas industry is extremely rewarding in terms of career growth, travelling opportunities and compensation. However, the above points must also be considered before stepping into this industry. It is important to mention here that majority of oil and gas companies are aware of the risks associated and thus have sound safety measures in place to avoid any contingency. Moreover, the government and regulatory bodies also impose strict regulations for safety and security of the workforce. Therefore, in many cases, the risk associated is considerably reduced. So, before you accept any offer from any oil and gas companies, you must carefully verify the safety measures and policies of the company. Once, you are assured, your career in oil and gas will be highly rewarding.

If you are looking for relevant opportunities, check out NrgEdge.com to kickstart your career in oil and gas industry.

November, 12 2018