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The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts benchmark North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $53 per barrel (b) and $52/b, respectively, in 2017, close to their levels during the last three weeks of 2016. Average forecast prices rise to $56/b and $55/b, respectively, in 2018.


EIA's price forecasts have wide uncertainty bands, consistent with contract values for future delivery. For example, contacts traded during the five-day period ending January 5 suggest the market expects WTI prices could range from $35/b to $93/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in December 2017 (Figure 1). Strong demand and the recent agreement among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as key non-OPEC oil producers, are putting upward pressure on crude oil prices. However, forecast increases in global production should provide downward pressure on prices and mitigate the potential for significant crude oil price increases through 2018. Despite the recent OPEC agreement, EIA expects global petroleum and other liquid inventory builds to continue, but at a slowing rate, in 2017 and 2018.


Despite increases in global oil inventories and U.S. oil rig productivity, market reactions to the November OPEC agreement to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) starting in January 2017 contributed to rising oil prices in December, when average Brent prices were $9/b above their November level. In response to the price movement, in the January STEO, EIA increased its crude oil price forecast for both Brent and WTI by $2 from the December STEO forecast for 2017. The slight price discount of WTI to Brent in the forecast is based on the assumption of competition between the two crude oils in the U.S. Gulf Coast refinery market.


Brent crude oil spot prices are expected to remain fairly flat over 2017 due in part to the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to rising oil prices in late 2016.


EIA forecasts Brent prices will slowly increase in 2018, beginning the year at $54/b in January and ending the year at $59/b in December. During this time, inventory builds will slow, putting modest upward pressure on prices. This will encourage production increases, particularly in the Lower 48 onshore. However, any production increases realized while the global markets are building inventories will moderate price increases, which will in turn limit additional production increases.


Total U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 8.9 million b/d in 2016, down 0.5 million b/d from 2015, with all of the production decline in the Lower 48 onshore. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will increase to an average of 9.0 million b/d in 2017 and 9.3 million b/d in 2018. Forecast production in 2017 is 0.2 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast, reflecting assumptions of higher drilling activity, drilling efficiency, and well-level productivity than in previous forecasts. On a quarterly basis, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to increase from 8.9 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 9.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2018. In both 2017 and 2018, crude oil production in the third quarter decreases from the previous quarter, when EIA assumes some production declines because of hurricane-related outages.


In the previous forecast, EIA generally expected Lower 48 onshore production to decline through the end of 2017. However, the new forecast reflects crude oil prices near or above $50/b, which have led to increased investment by some U.S. production companies, particularly in the Permian Basin. EIA expects that declines in Lower 48 production have largely ended and forecasts relatively flat production in the first quarter of 2017 at 6.7 million b/d, which will then increase to an annual average of 7.0 million b/d in 2018. Even modest increases in crude oil prices could contribute to supply growth in other U.S. tight oil regions.


EIA estimates global petroleum and other liquids production will increase through the forecast. Annual estimated and forecast production levels for 2016, 2017, and 2018 were revised up to 96.4 million b/d, 97.5 million b/d, and 98.9 million b/d, respectively.


Significant upward revisions to historical consumption in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in mid-2016 have led to a revision in the historical global balances. The latest data show global petroleum and other liquids stock drew by 0.5 million b/d in the third quarter of 2016. While production was unchanged for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the previous forecast, global consumption of crude and liquid fuels was revised up by 0.6 million b/d. Inventory draws in the third quarter, however, were followed by large builds in the fourth quarter.


EIA estimates that crude and other liquids inventories increased by 2.0 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by an increase in production and a significant, but seasonal, drop in consumption. The production increase largely reflects OPEC members ramping up production in advance of implementing the November agreement on production cuts. Global production is expected to increase by 1.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016, with OPEC accounting for 0.9 million b/d, or 55%, of this increase. Additionally, large seasonal consumption declines of 1.0 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016 contribute to the stock build. This trend is not expected to last as global consumption of petroleum and liquids is forecast to grow at a faster rate than production through 2018, resulting in tighter markets (Figure 2).

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/article_images/twip170111fig2-lg.png

Annual consumption for 2016 is estimated at 95.6 million b/d and is forecast to increase by 1.7% to 97.2 million b/d in 2017, compared with a growth rate of 1.1% for production. However, 0.4 million b/d of this increase reflects estimated growth in the use of hydrocarbon gas liquids such as ethane and propane, reflecting growth in production from natural gas processing. Consumption is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2018 and average of 98.7 million b/d for the year, while production increases by 1.4% and remains slightly above consumption at 98.9 million b/d on an annual basis. However, consumption is greater than production in the third quarter of both 2017 and 2018.

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September, 21 2019
Your Weekly Update: 16 - 20 September 2019

Market Watch  

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 16 September 2019 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b

  • Global crude oil prices surged at the start of the week as news that a successful drone strike on the Abqaiq processing plant and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia took out over half of the Kingdom’s crude production capacity
  • Brent prices jumped above US$70/b at one point on fears on global supply disruption, but abated as President Donald Trump authorises the release of US strategic petroleum reserves to cover the market
  • Initial fears that the Saudi Arabian crude output would be crippled for months proved to be extreme, with Saudi Aramco announcing that some 70% of capacity at Abqaiq had been restored within days
  • But more worryingly is that this incident escalates the risk of a full-blown military confrontation with Iran; the US was quick to accuse Iran of the attack, citing data on the attack, which was denied by Iran
  • Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack, although initial results of a Saudi investigation pointed to the weapons originating from Iran
  • For now, crude oil prices have retreated as the risk of widespread supply disruption abated, but tensions are still high in the region
  • This comes after President Trump signals that he was considering easing sanctions in an apparent thaw in the US-Iran relationship; this opportunity now appears to have evaporated
  • Saudi Arabia’s new oil energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, made a positive impression at the recent OPEC+ meeting, with errant members of the group signalling that they were now ready to adhere to the supply deal
  • In Venezuela, the oil crisis continues as ongoing US sanctions now mean that the country cannot find enough vessels to transport its crude, as shippers fear losing insurance coverage if they transport Venezuelan oil
  • Iran has released the UK-flagged Stena Impero vessel that it had impounded, a lone bright spot in a region now clouded by geopolitical tensions
  • Against this backdrop, the US active rig count recorded yet another fall, losing five oil and seven gas rigs for a net drop of 12 to a new total of 886 rigs
  • With the shock of the Saudi drone attacks abating, crude oil prices are retreating back to their previous range – US$60-63 for Brent and US$56-59/b for WTI – as the impact of global supply was minimised; another attack, however, might cause a more permanent shift in prices


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Equinor has received consent from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate to continue operations at the Tordis and Vigdis fields through 2036 and 2040, respectively, extending the life of the North Sea fields by 34 years
  • BP has announced that it will deploy continuous measurement of methane emissions for all future oil and gas projects in a bid to reduce emissions
  • CNOPC and Niger have agreed to collaborate on a 1,892km pipeline to carry oil from Niger’s Agadem rift basin to port facilities in Benin
  • The South African government is tabling a new law that will allow the state to take a free stake of up to 10% in all new oil and gas ventures, hoping to capitalise on a surge in upstream interest after Total’s Brulpadda discovery

Midstream/Downstream

  • As the IMO deadline for low-sulfur marine fuels approaches, refiners have begun stockpiling supplies of very low-sulfur fuel oil to ensure adequate supply; this includes Japan’s Cosmo Oil that aims to begin supplying VLSFO to the domestic marine market by October 2019
  • IndianOil’s Gujarat refinery stated it ready to produce 12,900 b/d of VLSFO by October while its Haldia refinery will start producing 5,500 b/d of VLSFO by December; this should be adequate to cover the India’s marine fuel demand
  • India is considering selling a stake in BPCL, the country’s second largest refiner, to an international firm to boost competition in downstream fuel retailing that has historically been dominated by state firms
  • Valero Energy and Darling Ingredients are launching the first renewable gasoil plant in Texas, focusing on producing renewable diesel and naphtha
  • In the UK, Essar Oil’s Stanlow refinery aims to increase its diet of US crude from a current 35% to 40%, leveraging on cheaper American oil
  • The after-effects of Russia’s contaminated crude through the Druzhba pipeline continues as Total issues a tender to sell 1.3 million barrels of tainted Ural crude through Rotterdam after failing to process it

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Poland has won a ruling from the EU courts to reduce Russian control over the key EU Opal pipeline that carries Russian gas from the Nord Stream link to Germany, preventing Gazprom from using most of Opal capacity in a bit to increase energy security for Eastern European countries
  • Vitol and Mozambique’s state player ENH have set up a new joint venture in Singapore to capitalise on trading opportunities for LNG, LPG, and condensate
  • Australia’s Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd and Delta Offshore Energy will supply gas from the Magnolia fields to an LNG-to-power project in Bac Lieu, Vietnam
  • Eni’s Baltim South West gas field offshore Egypt has started up production, only 3 years after discovery, producing an initial 100 mscf/d of gas
  • US gas player Sempra is looking to take FID on its Energia Costa Azul LNG project in Mexico’s Baja California region by the end of 2019
  • Egypt has announced that it expects to receive first natural gas from Israel by end-2019 through the East Mediterranean Gas pipeline, with initial supplies of 200 mscf/d that will rise to 500 mscf/d by 2020
  • The Independence floating LNG terminal in Lithuania – built to reduce the Baltic region’s dependence on Russian gas – is set to receive its first-ever cargo from Siberia, likely from Novatek’s LNG projects in Yamal
September, 20 2019
Financial Review: Second-Quarter 2019
Key findings
  • Brent crude oil daily average prices were 9% lower in second-quarter 2019 than in second-quarter 2018 and averaged $68 per barrel
  • The 117 companies in this study increased their combined liquids production 4.6% in second-quarter 2019 from second-quarter 2018, and their natural gas production increased 5.0% during the same period
  • Nearly half of the companies were free cash flow positive—that is, they generated more cash from operations than their capital expenditures
  • Dividends plus share repurchases were nearly one-third of cash from operations, slightly lower than the six-year high set in first-quarter 2019

Distributions to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases amounted to nearly 33% of cash from operations


See entire second-quarter review

September, 20 2019