Alahdal A. Hussein

Petroleum Engineer / Founder at Oil Industry Insight
Last Updated: February 1, 2017
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Career Development
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As the rally in oil prices continues to drive oil prices toward $60/bbl due to the support from OPEC and non-OPEC oil deal, many people may start to think that the good old days of high oil prices will be back soon. And that means, more spending, higher salaries, more jobs and less suffering. To those people I say, don't be excited, it may get worse before it gets better.

The last two years have been pivotal to the oil and gas industry. Many things were redefined; $50/bbl is the new $100/bbl, USA is the new swing producer in the making and it will play a critical role in keep oil prices low, competition for market share is no longer among conventional oil producers only, unconventional resource producers are now in the game and their presence will continue to grow with time. All these changes tell us something that is, the oil industry is evolving and what is after 2014 will never be the same as what was before 2014.

If the oil industry is changing in such a fast pace, how about you? Are you changing as well, or are you just staying the same and expecting old strategies to bring you better result in such a changing industry. Because if you are doing that, I promise you, you will be out of the oil industry before you even know it.

In this article, I will share with you three skills that you need in order to mitigate the current changes in the oil industry. These skills will help you overcome the challenges arising from the current low oil price reality and whatever bad events that might happen in the future.

1- Adaptability


One of the main reasons that resulted in many companies going out of business and filing for bankruptcy in the last two years is the fact that they could not adapt to the new reality of low oil prices.Whether youare a business owner,an employee, or someone who is planning to join the oil industry, you should understand that adaptability is an important factor for your survival and success in the oil industry. Why adaptability is important in the oil and gas industry? Here are two reasons;

1- The oil and gas industry is a fast-changing industry

The change in the oil industry is not only driven by rapid changes in technology, new types of resources and the new challenges associated with it, but it is also driven by unexpected events and changes in geopolitics which could turn the oil industry up-side-down just like what happened back in 2014. To survive in such an ever-changing industry, you need to be flexible and agile. You need to be able to accept changes, stay clam and confident, adapt, plan and respond fast to these changes.

2- Adaptability is key to survival and success in your career

Adaptability is an important quality that employers in fast-changing industries such as the oil industry seek to have in their employees. Take a look at the jobs' requirements of many oil and gas companies, you will find that adaptability is one of their top requirements. Schlumberger is one example. For other companies, even if it is not written there in their website, they expect you to have it.

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One of the job requirement as shown in Schlumberger's website

The nature of work in the oil industry requires you to be adaptable. You will work in different projects, with different teams and different challenges every time. Adding to these challenges, projects that you will be working on will have tight deadlines which makes it even more important to be able to adapt fast. To become successful in your career and to meet exceptions, you need to be open to new ideas, flexible to work in challenging issues, and you need to be able to cope when things don't go as planned.

2- Managing Change


Change management is the second most important skill after adaptability. Why? Because, for you to adapt, you need to change. In other words, you can't adapt to the changes around you if you don't change. But it seems that change is not easy. This is why we see many people are left behind when they are faced with difficulties and hardships. Most of the time, we all face the same problems and same challenges, so why do some people seem to be unable to change a simple thing in their life, while others seem to sail smoothly through the changes they face in their life?

The answer is very simple. Change itself is not hard, in fact, it is easy. What is hard is accepting the uncertainty associated with change. What makes the change hard is how we view it, how we manage it, and how we cope with its uncertainty. As human, what is most stressful and challenging for us is the uncertainty associated with the change not the change itself. And there is where we waste most of our time.

When a bad event takes place in our life, the cycle of our reactions goes as follows. We first go through the denial stage in which we deny what is happening. Then we enter the second stage which is the anger stage. In this stage our confidence is down and we feel angry because we keep thinking about the negative consequences of the change. After sometime, we enter the exploration stage where we try to explore new direction. Then comes the acceptance stage where we finally accept what happened and seek encouragement to move on and change.

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The Change Curve

Anyone who faces change as a result of bad events, he/she will go through the full curve of change above. The only difference between those who manage to change fast and adapt and those who are left behind is how long it takes them to go through each stage of the change curve. Many of us get stuck in the first or second stage of the change curve for a long time and there is where troubles happen and we become unable to adapt and therefore get left behind and fail.

For example, when the layoff wave took place in the past two years due to the downturn in the oil and gas industry, many of those who were laid off failed to react fast to the change they were facing. They didn't believe it at first, and many of them spent one and a half year waiting for things to get better, but it didn't. It only got worse. Many of those who were laid off didn't take the decision to move on, to learn new skills, to change their career path or even to work in other industries because they didn't believe what was happening. They kept waiting with a hope that things will change fast instead of changing themselves. And many ended up wasting their time and some still do.

How to manage change?

Being able to manage change effectively will prevent you from wasting your time on things you will regret later in life. It will help you to overcome difficult situtaions that you might face in the future. It will also help you to stay ahead of the competition and here is how you can do it:

1- Embrace change


How to embrace the change? Don't waste your time worrying about things that you can't change. Instead, spend that time thinking about the the things you can change and how you want to change them. It is hard to let go of worries, but ask yourself one question. What is the point of getting stressed over thing you can't change? Does your worry change anything? If it does not, then stop it.


2- Plan to change the things you can and do it fast

Once you let go of your worries and stress over things you can't change, then start planning to change the things you can change. Be realistic, and stop worrying about uncertainty. It is only fear in our minds, it does not exist. Plan your change and do it fast.

3- Marketing and branding yourself


The recent changes in the oil industry has resulted in many oil and gas companies cutting their spending to weather the effects of low oil prices. One way to achieve that is by reducing the number of their workforce through layoffs and slowing down recruitment activities. That means, there is a high demand for jobs, but the supply is too low and this in turn created a downturn in recruitment activities and the consequence is a high competition for less jobs. In such an environment, the question is always about how to stand out of the crowd and secure the job you want or keep the one you have and avoid being laid off.

There are many things you can do to stand out of the crowd such as writing irresistible CV and cover-letter, educating yourself and staying up-to-date with the industry events, developments and new technologies, connecting with people in the industry, building relationships, having professional memberships and volunteering in activities and events to gain experience. All these things will add value to you and help you stand out, but what is the point of doing all these things if you can't show them to your potential employers. It is like having a great product and the worst marketing strategy, you end up selling nothing.

What is the point of doing all these things if you don't use them to sell yourself, market your skills and competencies and create a brand for yourself. By marketing and branding here, I don't mean doing that on CV, because no matter how good is your CV, you only send it to few companies and due to the high number of applications as a result of the high rate of unemployment, the chances of your CV getting noticed is too low. What I am talking about here is the online marketing and branding.

For me, online marketing and branding is the best type of branding, because you only have to work hard on it for one time and it will continue to promote you even when you are sleeping. It will even promote you to companies you never knew and others whom you never thought of sending your application over to them. That is the power of online marketing and branding.

How to market and brand yourself?

1- The first steps

The first steps are the initial steps that you should go through in order to develop a strong personal brand. These steps involve defining youroverall aspirations, conducting research, defining your brand attributes, assessing your current state and creating your branding plan.These are the initial steps that you should go through to get you started. Here is agreat article by Lisa Quast on Forbes which will walk you through these steps in more details.

2- Select a platform

Once you are done with the first steps, it is time to find the platform where you will be doing all the branding. To brand yourself, you need a platform, and since you are in the oil industry, you need a platform that is fully dedicated for oil and gas professionals. One of the choices you have is NrgEdge. It is a new oil and gas professional platform, dedicated to oil and gas professionals, and it has many features to help you brand yourself. Other platforms such as LinkedIn, Twitter, and other social media platforms are also a good place to start. In the coming days, I will share an article explaining how to brand yourself in social media based on my personal experience, stay tuned.

3- Continue to Improve

Marketing and branding is not a one time job. Things change and improve, and you too. You will cultivate new skills and gain new experiences. When that happens, you need to update your online profiles. Allocate a time every month to check your online profiles for improvement and updates. As you grow and improve, you will find things to improve.

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Leveraging Synergies Created by the Convergence of Operational and Engineering Technologies and Digitalisation, Can Deliver Significant Savings for Energy Companies

Pioneering technology expert tells ADIPEC Energy Dialogue up to 80 per cent of plant shutdowns could be mitigated through combination of advanced electrification, automation and digitalisation technologies

 

Greater use of renewables in power management processes offers oil and gas companies opportunities to create efficiencies, sustainability and affordability when modernising equipment, or planning new CAPEX projects


Abu Dhabi, UAE – XX August 2020 – Leveraging the synergies created by the convergence of electrification, automation and digitalisation, can create significant cost savings for oil and gas companies when making both operational and capital investment decisions, according to Dr Peter Terwiesch, President of Industrial Automation at ABB, a Swiss-Swedish multinational company, operating mainly in robotics, power, heavy electrical equipment, and automation technology areas.

Participating in the latest ADIPEC Energy Dialogue, Dr Terwiesch said up to 80 per cent of energy industry plant shutdowns, caused by human error, or rotating machinery or power outages, could be mitigated through a combination of electrification, automation and digitalisation.

“Savings are clearly possible not only on the operation side but also, using the same synergies between dimensions, you can bring down the cost schedule and risk of capital investment, especially in a time when making projects work economically is harder,” explained Dr Terwiesch.

A pioneering technology leader, who works closely with utility, industry, transportation and infrastructure customers, Dr Terwiesch said despite the increasing investment by oil and gas companies in renewables and the growing use of renewables to generate electricity, both for individual and industrial uses, hydrocarbons will continue to have an important role in creating energy, in the short to medium term.

“If you look at the energy density constraints, clearly electricity is gaining share but electricity is not the source of energy; it is a conduit of energy. The energy has to come from somewhere and that can be hydrocarbons, or nuclear, or renewables.” he said.

Nevertheless, he added, the greater use of renewables to generate electricity offers oil and gas companies the option of integrating a higher share of renewables into power management processes to create efficiencies, sustainability and affordability when modernising equipment, or planning new CAPEX projects.

The ADIPEC Energy Dialogue is a series of online thought leadership events created by dmg events, organisers of the annual Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference. Featuring key stakeholders and decision-makers in the oil and gas industry, the dialogues focus on how the industry is evolving and transforming in response to the rapidly changing energy market.

With this year’s in person ADIPEC exhibition and conference postponed to November 2021, the ADIPEC Energy Dialogue, along with insightful webinars, podcasts and on line panels continue to connect the oil and gas industry, with the challenges and opportunities shaping energy markets in the run up to, and following, a planned three-day live stream virtual ADIPEC conference taking place from November 9-11.

An industry first of its kind, the online conference will bring together energy leaders, ministers and global oil and gas CEOs to assess the collective measures the industry needs to put in place to fast-track recovery, post COVID-19.

To watch the full ADIPEC Energy Dialogue series go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZzUd32n3_s&t=6s

August, 12 2020
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Forecast Highlights

  • The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020. Uncertainties persist across the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) outlook for all energy sources, including liquid fuels, natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewables. The STEO is based on U.S. macroeconomic forecasts by IHS Markit, which assume U.S. gross domestic product declined by 5.2% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago and will rise from the third quarter of 2020 through 2021.
  • Daily Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $43 per barrel (b) in July, up $3/b from the average in June and up $25/b from the multiyear low monthly average price in April. EIA expects monthly Brent spot prices will average $43/b during the second half of 2020 and rise to an average of $50/b in 2021.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.18 per gallon (gal) in July, an increase of 10 cents/gal from the average in June but 56 cents/gal lower than at the same time last year. EIA expects that gasoline prices will gradually decrease through the rest of the summer to reach an average of $2.04/gal in September before falling to an average of $1.99/gal in the fourth quarter. Forecast U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.23/gal in 2021, compared with an average of $2.12/gal in 2020.
  • EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase. EIA estimates global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2020 and expects they will decline at a rate of 4.2 million b/d in the second half of 2020 and then decline by 0.8 million b/d in 2021.
  • EIA estimates that demand for global petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 93.4 million b/d in July. Demand was down 9.1 million b/d from July 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.0 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020, which was down 15.8 million b/d from year-ago levels. EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels globally will average 93.1 million b/d for all of 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020.
  • EIA estimates that global liquid fuels production averaged 91.8 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 8.6 million b/d year over year. The decline reflects voluntary production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), and reductions in drilling activity and production curtailments in the United States because of low oil prices. In the forecast, the global supply of oil continues to decline to 90.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 before rising to an annual average of 99.4 million b/d in 2021.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. liquid fuels consumption averaged 16.2 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 4.1 million b/d (20%) from the same period in 2019. The decline reflects travel restrictions and reduced economic activity related to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. EIA expects U.S. oil consumption will generally rise through the end of 2021. EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 18.9 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 (down 1.8 million b/d year over year) before rising to an average of 20.0 million b/d in 2021. Although the 2021 forecast level is 1.6 million b/d more than EIA’s forecast 2020 consumption, it is 0.4 million b/d less than the 2019 average.
  • EIA has lowered U.S. crude oil production estimates for 2020 by 370,000 b/d from the previous STEO. EIA expects crude production to average 11.3 million b/d in 2020 and 11.1 million b/d in 2021, down from 12.2 million b/d in 2019. Recently released EIA data show that average monthly U.S. oil production for May was 1.2 million b/d lower than the July STEO forecast, indicating more extensive production curtailments than previously estimated. Also, EIA’s August STEO assumes that the Dakota Access Pipeline will remain operational. A U.S. District Court ordered on July 6 the temporary closure of the Dakota Access Pipeline beginning in early August. A U.S. appeals court has overturned the lower court decision, allowing the pipeline to remain running while further litigation proceedings continue.
  • In July, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $1.77 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects natural gas prices will generally rise through the end of 2021 but the sharpest increases will be during this fall and winter when they rise from an average of $2.11/MMBtu in September to $3.14/MMBtu in February. EIA expects that rising demand heading into winter, combined with reduced production, will cause upward price pressures. EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.03/MMBtu in 2020 and $3.14/MMBtu in 2021.
  • EIA estimates that total U.S. working natural gas in storage ended July at about 3.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 15% more than the five-year (2015–19) average. In the forecast, inventories rise by 2.0 Tcf during the April-through-October injection season to reach nearly 4.0 Tcf on October 31.
  • EIA expects that total U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020, down 3.0% from 2019. The largest decline in consumption occurs in the industrial sector, which EIA forecasts will average 22.0 Bcf/d in 2020, down 1.0 Bcf/d from 2019, as a result of reduced manufacturing activity. The decline in total U.S. consumption also reflects lower heating demand in early 2020, contributing to residential and commercial demand in 2020 averaging 12.8 Bcf/d (down 0.9 Bcf/d from 2019) and 8.8 Bcf/d (down 0.8 Bcf/d from 2019), respectively.
  • U.S. dry natural gas production set an annual record in 2019, averaging 92.2 Bcf/d. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 88.7 Bcf/d in 2020, with monthly production falling from its monthly average peak of 96.2 Bcf/d in November 2019 to 82.7 Bcf/d by April 2021, before increasing slightly. Natural gas production declines the most in the Permian region, where EIA expects low crude oil prices will reduce associated natural gas output from oil-directed rigs. EIA’s forecast of dry natural gas production in the United States averages 84.0 Bcf/d in 2021. EIA expects production to begin rising in the second quarter of 2021 in response to higher natural gas and crude oil prices.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will average 5.5 Bcf/d in 2020 and will average 7.3 Bcf/d in 2021. EIA expects that U.S. LNG exports will decline through the end of the summer as a result of reduced global demand for natural gas. U.S. exports of LNG in July 2020 averaged 3.1 Bcf/d, which is about the same as in May 2018, when the available liquefaction capacity was about one-third of the current capacity. Declines in global natural gas demand associated with COVID-19 mitigation efforts, high natural gas storage inventories in Europe and Asia, and an on-going expansion in LNG liquefaction capacity have contributed to natural gas and LNG prices reaching all-time historical lows. Low international prices have affected the economic competitiveness of U.S. LNG exports and have led to numerous cargo cancellations, particularly at the Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, and Freeport LNG export terminals. EIA expects LNG exports from the United States to remain low in the next few months. Based on numerous trade press reports, EIA estimates about 45 cargoes have been canceled for upcoming August shipments and about 30 cargoes have been canceled for September shipments.
  • EIA forecasts 3.6% less electricity consumption in the United States in 2020 compared with 2019. The largest decline on a percentage basis is in the commercial sector, where EIA expects retail sales of electricity to fall by 7.4% this year. Forecast industrial retail electricity sales fall by 5.8%. EIA forecasts residential sector retail sales will increase by 2.0% in 2020. Milder winter temperatures earlier in the year led to lower consumption for space heating, but that factor is offset by increased summer cooling demand and an assumed increase in electricity use by more people working from home. In 2021, EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity consumption will rise by 0.8%.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. electric power sector generation from natural gas-fired power plants will increase from 37% in 2019 to 40% this year. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 35% in response to higher natural gas prices. Coal’s forecast share of electricity generation falls from 24% in 2019 to 18% in 2020 and then increases to 22% in 2021. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources rises from 17% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 and to 22% in 2021. The increase in the share from renewables is the result of expected additions to wind and solar generating capacity. EIA expects a decline in nuclear generation in both 2020 and 2021, reflecting recent and upcoming retirements of nuclear generating capacity.
  • EIA forecasts that renewable energy will be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in 2020. EIA expects the electric power sector will add 23.2 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity and 12.9 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in 2020. However, these future capacity additions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, and EIA continues to monitor reported planned capacity builds.
  • U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020. EIA expects coal consumption to rise to a seasonal peak of 127 MMst in the third quarter but remain lower than 2019 levels through the end of 2020. EIA estimates that U.S. coal consumption will decrease by 26% in 2020 and increase by 20% in 2021. EIA estimates that total U.S. coal production in 2020 will decrease by 29% from 2019 levels to 502 MMst. In 2021, EIA expects higher demand and rising natural gas prices to a lead to a recovery in coal production of 12%, with a total annual production level of 564 MMst.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, after decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, will decrease by 11.5% (588 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of less energy consumption related to restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. CO2 emissions decline with reduced consumption of all fossil fuels, particularly coal (24.9%) and petroleum (11.6%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5.6%, as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
August, 12 2020
Utility-scale battery storage capacity continued its upward trend in 2018

Utility-scale battery storage systems are increasingly being installed in the United States. In 2010, the United States had seven operational battery storage systems, which accounted for 59 megawatts (MW) of power capacity (the maximum amount of power output a battery can provide in any instant) and 21 megawatthours (MWh) of energy capacity (the total amount of energy that can be stored or discharged by a battery). By the end of 2018, the United States had 125 operational battery storage systems, providing a total of 869 MW of installed power capacity and 1,236 MWh of energy capacity.

Battery storage systems store electricity produced by generators or pulled directly from the electrical grid, and they redistribute the power later as needed. These systems have a wide variety of applications, including integrating renewables into the grid, peak shaving, frequency regulation, and providing backup power.

annual utility-scale battery storage capacity additions by region

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory and Annual Electric Generator Report

Most utility-scale battery storage capacity is installed in regions covered by independent system operators (ISOs) or regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Historically, most battery systems are in the PJM Interconnection (PJM), which manages the power grid in 13 eastern and Midwestern states as well as the District of Columbia, and in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Together, PJM and CAISO accounted for 55% of the total battery storage power capacity built between 2010 and 2018. However, in 2018, more than 58% (130 MW) of new storage power capacity additions, representing 69% (337 MWh) of energy capacity additions, were installed in states outside of those areas.

In 2018, many regions outside of CAISO and PJM began adding greater amounts of battery storage capacity to their power grids, including Alaska and Hawaii, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). Many of the additions were the result of procurement requirements, financial incentives, and long-term planning mechanisms that promote the use of energy storage in the respective states. Alaska and Hawaii, which have isolated power grids, are expanding battery storage capacity to increase grid reliability and reduce dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports.

total installed cost of utility-scale battery systems by year

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report
Note: The cost range represents cost data elements from the 25th to 75th percentiles for each year of reported cost data.

Average costs per unit of energy capacity decreased 61% between 2015 and 2017, dropping from $2,153 per kilowatthour (kWh) to $834 per kWh. The large decrease in cost makes battery storage more economical, helping accelerate capacity growth. Affordable battery storage also plays an important role in the continued integration of storage with intermittent renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar.

Additional information on these topics is available in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) recently updated Battery Storage in the United States: An Update on Market Trends. This report explores trends in battery storage capacity additions and describes the current state of the market, including information on applications, cost, market and policy drivers, and future project developments.

August, 11 2020