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Last Updated: March 3, 2017
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Gas & LNG
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Shell has launched its LNG Outlook, finding that, with global gas demand expected to increase by 2% a year between 2015 and 2030, LNG is set to rise at twice this rate at 4 to 5%.

Shell found that global LNG demand reached 265 MMt last year, including an increase in net LNG imports of 17 MMt, with demand growth keeping “pace with supply as greater than expected demand in Asia and the Middle 
East absorbed the increase in supply from Australia”.
“Global LNG trade demonstrated its flexibility time and again in 2016, responding to shortfalls in national and regional gas supply and to new emerging demand,” Maarten Wetselaar, Shell Integrated Gas and New Energies Director, commented.

Shell found that China and India were two of the fastest growing buyers, increasing their imports by a combined 11.9 MMt last year, with China’s imports totalling 27 MMt and India’s 20 MMt.

The addition of six new importing countries since 2015 – Colombia, Egypt, Jamaica, Jordan, Pakistan and Poland – brought the number of LNG importers to 35, up from around 10 at the start of the century, Shell advised, with Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan among the fastest growing LNG importers last year, importing a total of 13.9 MMt, due to local shortages in gas supplies.

“The bulk of growth in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MMt to a total of 44.3 MMt,” Shell stated. “It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MMt of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana.”

Shell stated that LNG prices are expected to continue to be determined by factors including oil prices, global LNG supply and demand dynamics, along with the costs of new LNG facilities, while “the growth of LNG trade has evolved into helping meet demand when domestic gas markets face supply shortages”.

“LNG trade also is changing to meet the needs of buyers, including shorter-term and lower-volume contracts with greater degrees of flexibility,” Shell stated. “Some emerging LNG buyers have more challenging credit ratings than traditional buyers.

“While the industry has been flexible in developing new demand, there has been a decrease in final investment decisions for new supply. Shell believes further investments will need to be made by the industry to meet growing demand, most of which is set to come from Asia, after 2020.”

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