Not because of the crash...We’re in the age of ever advancing software capabilities. If you are involved in HR or recruiting, you'll be aware that there's deeper and wider software integration available than ever before.
Software solutions will allow you to post a job across hundreds of platforms, then receive applications and CVs seamlessly. The same software will have CV reading and keyword matching capabilities that are closing the gap between bots… and you!
If fact, unless you have a deep understanding of the industry that you are recruiting for… The bots may already do a better job than you…
Once AI takes off, the ‘human’ side of recruiting might be better done by software as well.
Candidates who feel let down by recruiters that do not treat them or their data properly will see the satisfying irony here… Thousands of recruiters out of work, and unable to get a job, sending their CV to bots, who simply don’t give a damn…
A smoother, more accurate and sophisticated process in applying for jobs will help some, and hurt others.
Once automation takes over, there will be winners, for example:
Those of you who have shining resumes and experience that might get overlooked by recruiters who spend a few seconds scanning each CV because they've little time.
Or those who have a very specific skill set, one which is not grasped fully by the typical recruiter, who was selling timeshare last year, and is likely to be selling used cars next year, (it’s a transient business).
There will be losers as well, for example:
Those who lie, exaggerate or bend the truth when completing their CVs, either through memory failure, or lack of integrity. (The percentage is higher than you would imagine).
Those who rely on networking to get jobs. If a recruiter, HR manager or Rig manager has a choice between their current position…
… Mountains of unsuitable CVs and a pocket book of people who are a known quantity.
… A choice based on pure and accurate data, AI software that can literally pick the best person for each position.
What will the decision maker do? They are more likely to put forward the best, rather then taking the shortcut of hiring ‘good old Fred’ who they know won't completely let them down.
In the meantime…
What shall we do? We can’t all take an extended vacation at the beach, waiting for the bots to solve our problems, or ruin us…
We make the best choices, for the situation that we are in for the foreseeable future!
This means that you have decisions to make. If you are reading this as a recruiter or HR manager, hopefully I've stimulated a bit of thought. You know that the current system has its limitations, and that by maximising your own efficiency and productivity, you can do the best that you can, with what you’ve got… Right?
I believe that the very best solution for those who are looking for personnel for a drilling team, is to look at a talent pool that is industry and sector specific.
If you wanted to find a great programmer, you're more likely to find them in a community of programmers than in a generic job board, or even hundreds of auto-posting boards. Does this make sense to you?
Until AI improves massively, which could take 5 years, or perhaps 15, how will you fill drilling job vacancies, why make life hard for yourself? Do you really want to be swimming in candidate soup, publishing your job to hundreds of general job boards? Attracting thousands of bad fit candidates?
If you're a job seeker and you want to find a drilling job, where do you look?
There are plenty of choices online, and due to the downturn there are plenty of opportunities to read and share stories about our job hunting (or candidate hunting) experiences.
One place to see conversations about this is on social media. There are places that aren’t really suitable, such as Instagram or Pinterest, but it's possible to find plenty of job adverts, on LinkedIn and Facebook. With millions, or more than a billion people logging on the these two platforms every day, there's plenty of opportunity to see job related conversations happening.
Is this a good place to look for a job, or for a candidate? The feedback that we see is that there's a lot of noise. Candidates are unsure of which job postings, recruiters and oil company accounts are ‘real’. After all, anyone can create a company account and post jobs in order to collect data, or worse...
When the reputation, and performance of many online recruiters leaving a lot to be desired...
How do you know which ones never had a job to promote?
Which ones were real, but couldn’t be bothered to even send you a quick courtesy reply?
The anecdotal reports are there for anyone to see, that the noise is high and the quality is low.
A big waste of valuable time for the employers who ask for an application form to be completed and get 4000 'interested, check my profile' type responses.
Heartache for the job seekers who send their details and/or fill in dozens or even hundred’s of applications without even a courtesy response.
Where else can you look for a good online job matchmaking service?
Many or most jobs boards are filled with out of date candidate details and there is no filtering and cleaning of the data. Who ends up doing this? The HR manager, rig manager or any DIY inclined person who thought that they could save some money and ended up wasting a lot of time instead.
Many traditional recruiters charge very high rates that are not congruent with lower oil and gas prices. The numbers don’t work in an environment of bankruptcy and ‘beggar thy neighbour’ market share strategies around the world.
General job sites, and sites that offer themselves to every type of staff that might even cycle past an oil company head office suffer from the same noise and quality problems.
Life is complicated enough, why waste time with noise, irrelevance and inaccuracy?
We don’t think you should. If you want to get a job done right, deal with the specialists. You want drillers, or a drilling job? deal with industry specific partners.
Whether you are on the HR/recruitment side, or the labour side of the equation. Support industry services by using them, and we can all make each others lives easier.
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The vast Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan’s portion of the South Caspian Sea marked several milestones in 2018. It has now produced a cumulative total of 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas since the field started up in 2006, with daily output reaching a new peak, growing by 12.5% y-o-y. At a cost of US$28 billion, Shah Deniz – with its estimated 1.2 trillion cubic metres of gas resources – has proven to be an unparalleled success, being a founding link of Europe’s Southern Gas Corridor and coming in relatively on budget and on time. And now BP, along with its partners, is hoping to replicate that success with an ambitious exploration schedule over the next two years.
Four new exploration wells in three blocks, along with a seismic survey of a fourth, are planned for 2019 and an additional three wells in 2020. The aggressive programme is aimed at confirming a long-held belief by BP and SOCAR there are more significant pockets of gas swirling around the area. The first exploratory well is targeting the Shafag-Asiman block, where initial seismic surveys suggest natural gas reserves of some 500 billion cubic metres; if confirmed, that would make it the second-largest gas field ever discovered in the Caspian, behind only Shah Deniz. BP also suspects that Shah Deniz itself could be bigger than expected – the company has long predicted the existence of a second, deeper reservoir below the existing field, and a ‘further assessment’ is planned for 2020 to get to the bottom of the case, so to speak.
Two wells are planned to be drilled in the Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula (SWAP) block, some 30km southeast of Baku, where BP operates in equal partnership with SOCAR, with an additional well planned for 2020. The goal at SWAP is light crude oil, as is a seismic survey in the deepwater Caspian Sea Block D230 where a ‘significant amount’ of oil is expected. Exploration in the onshore Gobustan block, an inland field 50km north of Baku, rounds up BP’s upstream programme and the company expects that at least one seven wells of these will yield a bonanza that will take Azerbaijan’s reserves well into the middle of the century.
Developments in the Caspian are key, as it is the starting node of the Southern Gas Corridor – meant to deliver gas to Europe. Shah Deniz gas currently makes its way to Turkey via the South Caucasus Gas pipeline and exports onwards to Europe should begin when the US$8.5 billion, 32 bcm/y Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) starts service in 2020. Planned output from Azerbaijan currently only fills half of the TANAP capacity, meaning there is room for plenty more gas, if BP can find it. From Turkey, Azeri gas will link up to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline in Greece and connect into Turkey, potentially joined by other pipelines projects that are planned to link up with gas production in Israel. This alternate source of natural gas for Europe is crucial, particularly since political will to push through the Nordstream-2 pipeline connecting Russian gas to Germany is slackening. The demand is there and so is the infrastructure. And now BP will be spending the next two years trying to prove that the supply exists underneath Azerbaijan.
BP’s upcoming planned exploration in the Caspian:
When it was first announced in 2012, there was scepticism about whether or not Petronas’ RAPID refinery in Johor was destined for reality or cancellation. It came at a time when the refining industry saw multiple ambitious, sometimes unpractical, projects announced. At that point, Petronas – though one of the most respected state oil firms – was still seen as more of an upstream player internationally. Its downstream forays were largely confined to its home base Malaysia and specialty chemicals, as well as a surprising venture into South African through Engen. Its refineries, too, were relatively small. So the announcement that Petronas was planning essentially, its own Jamnagar, promoted some pessimism. Could it succeed?
It has. The RAPID refinery – part of a larger plan to turn the Pengerang district in southern Johor into an oil refining and storage hub capitalising on linkages with Singapore – received its first cargo of crude oil for testing in September 2018. Mechanical completion was achieved on November 29 and all critical units have begun commissioning ahead of the expected firing up of RAPID’s 300 kb/d CDU later this month. A second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude arrived at RAPID last week. It seems like it’s all systems go for RAPID. But it wasn’t always so clear cut. Financing difficulties – and the 2015 crude oil price crash – put the US$27 billion project on shaky ground for a while, and it was only when Saudi Aramco swooped in to purchase a US$7 billion stake in the project that it started coalescing. Petronas had been courting Aramco since the start of the project, mainly as a crude provider, but having the Saudi giant on board was the final step towards FID. It guaranteed a stable supply of crude for Petronas; and for Aramco, RAPID gave it a foothold in a major global refining hub area as part of its strategy to expand downstream.
But RAPID will be entering into a market quite different than when it was first announced. In 2012, demand for fuel products was concentrated on light distillates; in 2019, that focus has changed. Impending new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations are requiring shippers to switch from burning cheap (and dirty) fuel oil to using cleaner middle distillate gasoils. This plays well into complex refineries like RAPID, specialising in cracking heavy and medium Arabian crude into valuable products. But the issue is that Asia and the rest of the world is currently swamped with gasoline. A whole host of new Asian refineries – the latest being the 200 kb/d Nghi Son in Vietnam – have contributed to growing volumes of gasoline with no home in Asia. Gasoline refining margins in Singapore have taken a hit, falling into negative territory for the first time in seven years. Adding RAPID to the equation places more pressure on gasoline margins, even though margins for middle distillates are still very healthy. And with three other large Asian refinery projects scheduled to come online in 2019 – one in Brunei and two in China – that glut will only grow.
The safety valve for RAPID (and indeed the other refineries due this year) is that they have been planned with deep petrochemicals integration, using naphtha produced from the refinery portion. RAPID itself is planned to have capacity of 3 million tpa of ethylene, propylene and other olefins – still a lucrative market that justifies the mega-investment. But it will be at least two years before RAPID’s petrochemicals portion will be ready to start up, and when it does, it’ll face the same set of challenging circumstances as refineries like Hengli’s 400 kb/d Dalian Changxing plant also bring online their petchem operations. But that is a problem for the future and for now, RAPID is first out of the gate into reality. It won’t be entering in a bonanza fuels market as predicted in 2012, but there is still space in the market for RAPID – and a few other like in – at least for now.
RAPID Refinery Factsheet:
Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.
The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.
The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.
The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.
In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.
However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.
Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.
This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.
It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.