Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of NrgEdge
Last Updated: March 27, 2017
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Marine & Offshore
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A Bloomberg analyst pointed out that the recent share market rally in Singapore was underpinned by stocks of ship and oil rig-makers, despite the sectors’ fundamentals being weak. The rally, he concluded, was floating on a bit of foam.

Since the crash of oil prices in late 2014, the Singapore offshore services and engineering industry has been hit hard. Anticipating that the good times would continue – always a fallacy – all the capital expenditure and debt incurred from oil’s boom over 2009-2014 came back to haunt the sector after upstream work dried up in the past two years.

Singapore, being the nexus of much of the rig-building, offshore vessel and mechanical engineering contracting in Asia, has been hit the hardest. It came with a delay; the hope was that oil prices recover in 2016 after plunging in early 2015, but that never came. So when Swiber Holdings declared bankruptcy last August, it was a surprise to no one in the industry. In such a downturn, there are always casualties, and other companies – Swissco, Ezion Holdings, KrisEnergy – were also facing critical times. Debt holders of these companies, mainly Singapore banks, had to take a haircut. In response, the financial industry tightened up its portfolios while the Singapore government pledged to aid the industry, but stopped short to bailing the companies out.

The saga continued last week. Industry darling Ezra Holdings – once worth US$2 billion – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the USA. The international filing is unusual, but it does offer legal and enforcement action protection worldwide, as it attempts to restructure. Also declaring Chapter 11 are related entities Ezra Marine Services and EMAS IT Solution, and possibly also circling the drain is Ezra Holdings’ debt-ridden subsidiary Emas Chiyoda Subsea, which owes the former some US$170 million. Ezra Holdings’ last published earnings declared losses of US$339.6 million, with US$1.51 billion of liabilities. Court filings show that its 20 largest creditors are owed some US$600 million; one – Norwegian shipowner Forland Subsea AS – has agreed not to pursue to repayment of a defaulted charter payment, but the rest are not being so patient.

As Ezra Holdings battles to survive, new concerns over the health of the industry have been cast. Though some argue that Ezra was poorly managed and over leveraged to begin with, it may not be reflective of all other players in the industry. However, investors seem sanguine for now. The banks, for example, have already identified Ezra as a threat, with DBS moving its US$270 debt owed to ‘non-performing’ while OCBC has been stress-testing the sector since Q32015. The financial industry, by and large, has already reduced its exposure to this murky pool, but turbulence beneath the surface still threatens the industry itself. Analysts and auditors are already looking for the next trouble – with Malaysian vessel builder Nam Cheong, Singapore’s Loyz Energy and Rickmers Maritime named as potential threats. Yet, there are those that are hunting for a bargain – British engineering specialists Subsea 7 has expressed interest in purchasing Ezra Holdings assets, as well as those of its embattled joint venture Emas Chiyoda Subsea.

With oil prices having recovered somewhat, the forecast might be brighter, but brace yourself, there are still squalls to come as the upstream industry further consolidates and reinvents itself. Oil companies are putting a lot more cost pressure across their supply chain, and offshore marine contractors are not excluded from this picture. Previous charters rates will certainly not re-appear in the medium terms at least hence the business model of vessel owners will need serious tweaking. Those willing innovate and put their re-engineering skills to use, may look at diversifying their business into offshore renewable energy and other seabed mining sectors.

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September, 21 2019
Your Weekly Update: 16 - 20 September 2019

Market Watch  

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 16 September 2019 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b

  • Global crude oil prices surged at the start of the week as news that a successful drone strike on the Abqaiq processing plant and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia took out over half of the Kingdom’s crude production capacity
  • Brent prices jumped above US$70/b at one point on fears on global supply disruption, but abated as President Donald Trump authorises the release of US strategic petroleum reserves to cover the market
  • Initial fears that the Saudi Arabian crude output would be crippled for months proved to be extreme, with Saudi Aramco announcing that some 70% of capacity at Abqaiq had been restored within days
  • But more worryingly is that this incident escalates the risk of a full-blown military confrontation with Iran; the US was quick to accuse Iran of the attack, citing data on the attack, which was denied by Iran
  • Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack, although initial results of a Saudi investigation pointed to the weapons originating from Iran
  • For now, crude oil prices have retreated as the risk of widespread supply disruption abated, but tensions are still high in the region
  • This comes after President Trump signals that he was considering easing sanctions in an apparent thaw in the US-Iran relationship; this opportunity now appears to have evaporated
  • Saudi Arabia’s new oil energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, made a positive impression at the recent OPEC+ meeting, with errant members of the group signalling that they were now ready to adhere to the supply deal
  • In Venezuela, the oil crisis continues as ongoing US sanctions now mean that the country cannot find enough vessels to transport its crude, as shippers fear losing insurance coverage if they transport Venezuelan oil
  • Iran has released the UK-flagged Stena Impero vessel that it had impounded, a lone bright spot in a region now clouded by geopolitical tensions
  • Against this backdrop, the US active rig count recorded yet another fall, losing five oil and seven gas rigs for a net drop of 12 to a new total of 886 rigs
  • With the shock of the Saudi drone attacks abating, crude oil prices are retreating back to their previous range – US$60-63 for Brent and US$56-59/b for WTI – as the impact of global supply was minimised; another attack, however, might cause a more permanent shift in prices


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Equinor has received consent from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate to continue operations at the Tordis and Vigdis fields through 2036 and 2040, respectively, extending the life of the North Sea fields by 34 years
  • BP has announced that it will deploy continuous measurement of methane emissions for all future oil and gas projects in a bid to reduce emissions
  • CNOPC and Niger have agreed to collaborate on a 1,892km pipeline to carry oil from Niger’s Agadem rift basin to port facilities in Benin
  • The South African government is tabling a new law that will allow the state to take a free stake of up to 10% in all new oil and gas ventures, hoping to capitalise on a surge in upstream interest after Total’s Brulpadda discovery

Midstream/Downstream

  • As the IMO deadline for low-sulfur marine fuels approaches, refiners have begun stockpiling supplies of very low-sulfur fuel oil to ensure adequate supply; this includes Japan’s Cosmo Oil that aims to begin supplying VLSFO to the domestic marine market by October 2019
  • IndianOil’s Gujarat refinery stated it ready to produce 12,900 b/d of VLSFO by October while its Haldia refinery will start producing 5,500 b/d of VLSFO by December; this should be adequate to cover the India’s marine fuel demand
  • India is considering selling a stake in BPCL, the country’s second largest refiner, to an international firm to boost competition in downstream fuel retailing that has historically been dominated by state firms
  • Valero Energy and Darling Ingredients are launching the first renewable gasoil plant in Texas, focusing on producing renewable diesel and naphtha
  • In the UK, Essar Oil’s Stanlow refinery aims to increase its diet of US crude from a current 35% to 40%, leveraging on cheaper American oil
  • The after-effects of Russia’s contaminated crude through the Druzhba pipeline continues as Total issues a tender to sell 1.3 million barrels of tainted Ural crude through Rotterdam after failing to process it

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Poland has won a ruling from the EU courts to reduce Russian control over the key EU Opal pipeline that carries Russian gas from the Nord Stream link to Germany, preventing Gazprom from using most of Opal capacity in a bit to increase energy security for Eastern European countries
  • Vitol and Mozambique’s state player ENH have set up a new joint venture in Singapore to capitalise on trading opportunities for LNG, LPG, and condensate
  • Australia’s Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd and Delta Offshore Energy will supply gas from the Magnolia fields to an LNG-to-power project in Bac Lieu, Vietnam
  • Eni’s Baltim South West gas field offshore Egypt has started up production, only 3 years after discovery, producing an initial 100 mscf/d of gas
  • US gas player Sempra is looking to take FID on its Energia Costa Azul LNG project in Mexico’s Baja California region by the end of 2019
  • Egypt has announced that it expects to receive first natural gas from Israel by end-2019 through the East Mediterranean Gas pipeline, with initial supplies of 200 mscf/d that will rise to 500 mscf/d by 2020
  • The Independence floating LNG terminal in Lithuania – built to reduce the Baltic region’s dependence on Russian gas – is set to receive its first-ever cargo from Siberia, likely from Novatek’s LNG projects in Yamal
September, 20 2019
Financial Review: Second-Quarter 2019
Key findings
  • Brent crude oil daily average prices were 9% lower in second-quarter 2019 than in second-quarter 2018 and averaged $68 per barrel
  • The 117 companies in this study increased their combined liquids production 4.6% in second-quarter 2019 from second-quarter 2018, and their natural gas production increased 5.0% during the same period
  • Nearly half of the companies were free cash flow positive—that is, they generated more cash from operations than their capital expenditures
  • Dividends plus share repurchases were nearly one-third of cash from operations, slightly lower than the six-year high set in first-quarter 2019

Distributions to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases amounted to nearly 33% of cash from operations


See entire second-quarter review

September, 20 2019