After a lesser draw than expected to crude inventories, oil is selling off on this third Wednesday in April. As strong imports from the Middle East this week should help to buoy inventories for next week's report, hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.
1) Much is being made of Saudi Arabia's February exports, which showed a drop to the lowest since mid-2015, according to JODI data. But we can see in our Clipperdata that this drop is superseded by a solid rebound in March exports. We see exports rebounded to over 7.2 million barrels per day, with flows bound for East Asia (think: Japan, South Korea, China) accounting for 45 percent of loadings.
This is the second-highest monthly volume heading to East Asia from Saudi on our records. The highest was in January. In the aftermath of the OPEC production cut, East Asia has been strongly favored for OPEC barrels. Total OPEC loadings bound for East Asia in March have clambered above the 10mn bpd level, the highest on our records, although April so far is looking considerably weaker as total OPEC export volumes drop.
2) It is also interesting to note that Saudi Arabia oil inventories rose in February amid the export lull. We discussed earlier in the month how JODI data showed that oil inventories dropped to 262 million barrels in January, down from a peak of 329 million barrels in October 2015.
After dropping thirteen out of the previous fourteen months - and for seven months in a row - Saudi crude inventories for February rebounded by 2.74mn bpd. This appears due to less crude leaving the country, and more finding its way to be both refined and put into storage:
3) As the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) starts up, the largest refiner on the East Coast - Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) - is not expected to take any deliveries of Bakken crude by rail in June. Once DAPL starts up, it is more profitable for oil to be sent by pipe to the U.S. Gulf Coast than it is to send it by rail to the East Coast.
As our ClipperData illustrate below, the marginalization of Bakken barrels to the East Coast has been underway for a good while. Waterborne imports bottomed out in early 2015 - at exactly the same time that Bakken shale crude production was peaking out.
As Bakken production has dropped off since, and as oil prices have remained low (making waterborne imports a more economically viable option than crude by rail), waterborne imports have risen ever since. While Canadian and Brazilian grades are consistently delivered to the refinery, West and North African grades have accounted for nearly 60 percent of imports since the start of last year.
4) Today's key EIA inventory numbers have been driven in large part by big swings on the US Gulf Coast. While total US refinery runs rose by 241,000 bpd, an increase of 260,000 bpd was seen from Gulf Coast refiners.
This uptick in Gulf Coast refining activity, in combination with imports remaining somewhat in check, has meant oil inventories have drawn down on the Gulf Coast by 3 million barrels. Next week's report is set to be impacted by super-strong waterborne imports from the Middle East, but for now, the increase in refining activity is taking center-stage. Crude inputs are now a whopping 958,000 bpd above year-ago levels.
5) Finally, the IMF has published its April 2017 World Economic Outlook. It projects world economic growth is going to be at 3.5 percent in 2017, rising to 3.6 percent in 2018. As we know all too well, all paths lead back to energy, hence downward revisions have been made to Latin American and Middle East nations due to the impact of lower oil prices and production cuts.
While the Russian economy is seen turning a corner as oil prices rebound, Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to grow at 1.3 percent in 2018, down from an estimate of 2.3 percent in January, due to austerity measures and production cuts.
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It seems to have been a topic that has been discussed for years, but a decision could finally be made. The Philippines has short-listed three different groups who are in the running to build the country’s first LNG import terminal, whittling them down from an initial 18 that submitted project proposals. The final three consist of the Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC), a joint venture between Tokyo Gas and domestic firm First Gen Corp and China’s CNOOC. The Philippines hopes to choose the final group by the end of November – an optimistic decision that belies that many, many complications that have come before. And those still to come.
First of all, the make-up of only one of the groups has been finalised. A local partner is a requirement for this project; CNOOC has yet to officially tie-up, although it has been talking to Manila-based Phoenix Petroleum, while state oil firm PNOC does not have a (deep-pocketed) partner yet. Firms including Chevron, Dubai’s Lloyds Energy Group and Japan’s JERA have reportedly contacted PNOC to express their interest, but a month before the Philippines wants to make a decision, its own home-grown hero hasn’t yet got its ducks lined up in a row.
And time is of essence. The once giant Malampaya gas field is running out of resources. Supplying piped natural gas to three power plants that feeds some 45% of Luzon’s electricity requirements, the Shell-operated field is expected to be completely depleted by 2024. With the country aiming to move away from burning coal or (imported) gasoil for power, gas is needed to replace gas. Even though the Philippines is pushing for a bilateral agreement with China to pave to way for joint exploration activities in disputed areas of the South China Sea – to the consternation of its citizens – any discovery in the Palawan basin or Scarborough Shoal will be years from commercialisation.
So LNG is the answer. And LNG has been the answer since 2008, when the need for an LNG import terminal was first identified. And it is not like no projects have been proposed – Australia’s Energy World Corp (EWC) has been wanting to build an LNG receiving terminal and power station in the Quezon province near Manila for years, but the project has been described as ‘trapped in a bureaucratic quagmire’ due to hurdles from various government agencies, or stymied by groups with competing interests.
PNOC itself has been wanting to build its own terminal in Batangas, within range of existing gas and power transmission facilities currently drawing Malampaya gas. But, just like Pertamina in Indonesia, it is cash-strapped and unable to drive the project on its own, hence the requirement for a partner/s. First Gen Corp and Phoenix Petroleum are both private players, with First Gen already operating four of the country’s five gas-fired plants while Phoenix Petroleum has close ties with CNOOC Gas.
Many announcements have been made and gone, but with this shortlist of three groups, it does finally look like the Philippines will be able to get its LNG ambitions of the ground. And it is thinking even bigger; wanting the terminal to become a LNG trading hub for the region – capitalising on the existing habit of ship-to-ship transfers of LNG cargoes into smaller parcels in the Philippine waters for delivery into southern China – challenging existing ambitions in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. But perhaps that is getting a bit ahead of themselves. Getting a project – any LNG project – off the ground is the first priority. And the rest can come after that.
Other Proposed LNG Projects In The Philippines:
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 5 November 2018 – Brent: US$72/b; WTI: US$62/b
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It is a well-known fact that the oil and gas industry has a lot to offer in terms of opportunities - paycheck, lifestyle, and work-life balance. However, like everything else in life, it has a flip side as well. If you are planning to make a career in oil and gas industry, it is important to know the cons as well. Here is a list of risks associated with working in oil and gas industry that you must know to make an informed decision.
Highly competitive: survival of the fittest
Oil and gas industry is highly competitive and dynamic in nature. The job requires high level of expertise and productivity. With digitization and automation of the industry, the work functions are changing rapidly. The employees who cannot cope up and upskill with changing time and need will be automatically pushed out of the system. The foremost challenge in oil and gas industry is to stay relevant and keep upskilling.
Long work hours
Some job functions in oil industry like offshore rig workers have to work in 12-hours shift, seven days a week and for seven to 28 days in one stretch. Sometimes, overtime is also expected due to emergency or to manage the project deadlines. However, the oil companies do give equal amount of resting period to the rig workers to compensate for the long working hours. Even then, the continuous long hours is strenuous for the workforce.
The accident-prone work environment
Although rigorous safety trainings are provided to the workforce along with numerous safety measures and laws in place; accidents do occur. Sometimes, these accidents can be life-threatening. Here is quick overview of the possible accidents that you might encounter:
Risk of confined space and fall- The line workers in oil and gas industry sometimes work in confined spaces like mud pits, reserve pits, storage tanks, sand storage, and other excavated areas, where they are exposed to potential risk of ignition of inflammable vapors, exposure to harmful chemicals, and asphyxiation. Additionally, these kinds of workplaces involve risk of falls, slips and trips too which can cause severe injuries and can even turn fatal. Though the companies are extremely careful and take all safety precautions, but the risk cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, frequent exposure to chemicals used in refineries and drilling operations can impact long-term health. To offset these dangers, oil and gas companies provide comprehensive training to employees to ensure safety protocols and site-specific features.
Working in remote location
The oil and gas professionals have to work on remote location for exploration, offshore duties, pumping stations, gas plants and more. The workers in remote location often feel isolated and they are on their own to cope up with numerous work-related accidents and health hazards.
Working in oil and gas industry is extremely rewarding in terms of career growth, travelling opportunities and compensation. However, the above points must also be considered before stepping into this industry. It is important to mention here that majority of oil and gas companies are aware of the risks associated and thus have sound safety measures in place to avoid any contingency. Moreover, the government and regulatory bodies also impose strict regulations for safety and security of the workforce. Therefore, in many cases, the risk associated is considerably reduced. So, before you accept any offer from any oil and gas companies, you must carefully verify the safety measures and policies of the company. Once, you are assured, your career in oil and gas will be highly rewarding.
If you are looking for relevant opportunities, check out NrgEdge.com to kickstart your career in oil and gas industry.