McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), an energy data and analytics specialist in London, has released its latest Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook to 2030, which identifies five potential supply and demand scenarios.
In the “usual” scenario, MEI expects oil prices to revolve about $60–70/bbl over the next 3 years and balance close to $65–75/bbl by 2030.
If members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continue to adhere to the output cut deal—it achieved 90% compliance in January—then the short-term market rebalancing process is expected to proceed relatively smoothly over the coming months, according to the outlook.
MEI expects strong growth in North America’s light, tight oil (LTO) production, while accelerated legacy declines due to the lack of upstream investment will help reduce oil oversupply. The excess inventory in the market will lead to increased price volatility in the near term.
MEI has identified six key supply and demand drivers that will contribute to long-term oil price recovery. On the demand side, slower annual growth in global gross domestic product—2.5–2.7%—coupled with decreasing oil intensity due to improved energy efficiency and alternative fuels will drive a structural deceleration in oil demand growth.
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 16 September 2019 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b
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