In recent years, US shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks.
The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below US$50 for a couple of weeks.
But analyst projections about oil global supply and demand are increasingly diverging, because expectations of the combined effects of OPEC’s cuts, US shale production, new oil discoveries, and new project start-ups also differ a lot.
Goldman Sachs, for example, expects a 'material oversupply' in 2018-2019, due to the increase in mega projects production in 2017-19 as a result of the record spending in those projects between 2011 and 2013. Short-cycle shale output will also add to the glut, says Goldman, projecting an additional 1 MM bpd to global supply by 2018-2019 coming from the mega projects sanctioned before the oil price crash and from U.S. shale output.
Morgan Stanley, however, begs to differ, and has recently said that “by 2020, we estimate that [around] 1.5 MM bpd of demand will need to come from projects that have not been sanctioned yet, but that have break-even oil prices of US$70-75 a barrel.”
Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today
Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.
The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.
The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.
The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.
In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.
However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.
Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.
This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.
It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 14 January 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$51/b
Headlines of the week
GEO ExPro Vol. 15, No. 6 was published on 10th December 2018 bringing light to the latest science and technology activity in the global geoscience community within the oil, gas and energy sector.
This issue focusses on frontier exploration, downhole acquisition tools and how we can collaboratively increase the efficiency of the exploration and production of oil, gas and energy resources. With a geographical focus on the Gulf of Mexico, this issue provides a lesson on the carbonate geology of the Florida Keys and details coverage of newly improved tectonic restorations of the US and Mexican conjugate margins which have enabled enhanced mega-regional hydrocarbon play and reservoir fairway maps of the region.
You can download the PDF of GEO ExPro magazine for FREE and sign up to GEO ExPro’s weekly updates and online exclusives to receive the latest articles direct to your inbox.
To access the latest issue, please visit: https://www.geoexpro.com/magazine/vol-15-no-6