Policies failed to keep up with technology.
Barriers to small island grid uptake of modern renewable energy power include outdated regulations that have not kept up with technology, according to the Institute of for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). Indeed, the Philippines presents a prime example of how techno-economic change has outpaced government regulation.
Under current regulation, for example, no incentives exist for island electric cooperatives (or those in SPUG areas) to procure cheaper sources because whatever the outcome, savings accrue exclusively to the missionary fund and none to the franchise ratepayers.
This is a classic case of moral hazard. This system tends to be biased against renewable generation because franchise managers would rather stick with diesel generation they are used to, even though more expensive.
Here's more from IEEFA:
Section 12 of the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 mandated the DoE, upon recommendation of the National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) to set a minimum renewable energy uptake in off-grid areas from available renewable resources in the islands.
According to Pete Maniego, former NREB chair, the recommendatory task was delegated to NPC-SPUG. As of June 2016, however, NPC-SPUG had not made any final recommendations. Since sunlight is abundant in all off-grid areas, the binding constraint would be land availability, and anecdotal evidence suggests large tracts are available.
Furthermore, the tariff-setting system for island electric cooperatives under the ERC is based on cash adequacy for operating and maintenance costs and an arbitrarily set cap on capital expenditures.
This means there is no incentive for electric cooperatives to even be more efficient or reduce costs. Private distribution utilities, on the other hand, benefit from a
performance-based regulation, which leads to operational and investment efficiency.
Still, private distribution utilities lack incentives to procure least-cost power supply because of full pass-through of fuel costs on contracts that address demand from captive customers, most of which are residential.
Prudent reform would have the ERC and NEA set up and enforce policy to require electric cooperatives and private distribution utilities alike to optimize procurement. Such reform would reduce the cost of electricity by tightening competition between power generators.
For fossil-fuel power generators, up to 80% of operating cost comes from fuel. Optimizing procurement levels the playing field for renewable power generators and reduces the UCME cost for ratepayers and taxpayers by phasing out subsidies for imported diesel.
The ERC and NEA can amend their tariff-setting system to favor performance and thus award gains as a result of increased efficiency and lower costs. It is clear that from a technological standpoint, there is the capability to implement cheaper alternatives, but in terms of integrating that capability into government regulation, there has not been much progress.
Cooperatives will also require training in renewable energy supply procurement—in part because of unfounded fears of running afoul of their diesel contract obligations.
The Department of Energy (DOE) can enjoin NPC-SPUG to speed up hybridization of its plants and to install maximum renewable energy for incremental load and in new sites identified for electrification. Moreover, the NEA can direct electric cooperatives to be technology-neutral in the procurement of power.
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Supply chains are currently in crisis. They have been for a long time now, ever since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic reshaped the way the world works. Stressed shipping networks and operational blockages – coupled with China’s insistence on a Covid-zero policy – means that cargo tanker rates are at an all-time high and that there just aren’t enough of them. McDonalds and KFCs in Asia are running out of French fries to sell, not because there aren’t enough potatoes in Idaho, but because there aren’t enough ships to deliver them to Japan or to Singapore from Los Angeles. The war in Ukraine has placed a particular emphasis on food supply chains by disrupting global wheat and sunflower oil supply chains and kicking off distressingly high levels of food price inflation across North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It was against this backdrop that Indonesia announced a complete ban on palm oil exports. That nuclear option shocked the markets, set off a potential new supply chain crisis and has particular implications on future of crude oil pricing and biofuels in Asia.
A brief recap. Like most of Asia, Indonesia has been grappling with food price inflation as consequence of Covid-19. Like most of Asia, Indonesia has been attempting to control this through a combination of shielding its most vulnerable citizens through continued subsidies while attempting to optimise supply chains. Like most of Asia, Indonesia hasn’t been to control the market at all, because uncoordinated attempts across a wide spectrum of countries to achieve a similar level of individual protectionism is self-defeating.
Cooking oil is a major product of sensitive importance in Indonesia, and one that it is self-sufficient in as a result of its status as the world’s largest palm oil producer. So large is Indonesia in that regard that its excess palm oil production has been directed to increasingly higher biodiesel mandates, with a B40 mandate – diesel containing 40% of palm material – originally schedule for full implementation this year. But as palm oil prices started rising to all-time highs at the beginning of January, cooking oil started becoming scarcer in Indonesia. The government blamed hoarding and – wary of the Ramadan period and domestic unrest – implemented a Domestic Market Obligation on palm oil refineries, directing them to devote 20% of projected exports for domestic use. Increasingly stricter terms for the DMO continued over February and March, only for an abrupt U-turn in mid-March that removed the DMO completely. But as the war in Ukraine drove prices even further, Indonesia shocked the market by announcing an total ban on palm oil exports in late April. Chaotically, the ban was first clarified to be palm olein only (straight refining cooking oil), but then flip-flopped into a total ban of crude palm oil as well. Markets went haywire, prices jumped to historical highs and Indonesia’s trading partners reacted with alarm.
Joko Widodo has said that the ban will be indefinite until domestic cooking oil prices ‘moderate’. With the global situation as it is, ‘moderate’ is unlikely to be achieved until the end of 2022 at least, if ‘moderate’ is taken to be the previous level of palm oil prices – roughly half of current pricing. Logistically, Indonesia cannot hold out on the ban for more than two months. Only a third of Indonesia’s monthly palm oil production is consumed domestically; the rest is exported. An indefinite ban means that not only fill storage tanks up beyond capacity and estates forced to let fruit rot, but Indonesia will be missing out on crucial revenue from its crude palm oil export tax. Which is used to fund its biodiesel subsidies.
And that’s where the implications on oil come in. Indonesia’s ham-fisted attempt at protectionism has dire implications on biofuels policies in Asia. Palm oil prices within Indonesia might sink as long as surplus volumes can’t make it beyond the borders, but international palm oil prices will remain high as consuming countries pivot to producers like Malaysia, Thailand, Papua New Guinea, West Africa and Latin America. That in turn, threatens the biodiesel mandates in Thailand and Malaysia. The Thai government has already expressed concern over palm-led food price inflation and associated pressure on its (subsidised) biodiesel programme, launching efforts to mitigate the worst effects. Malaysia – which has a more direct approach to subsidised fuels – is also feeling the pinch. Thailand’s move to B10 and Malaysia’s move to B20 is now in jeopardy; in fact, Thailand has regressed its national mandate from B7 to B5. And the reason is that the differential between the bio- and the diesel portion of the biodiesel is now so disparate that subsidy regimes break down. It would be far cheaper – for the government, the tax-payers and consumers – to use straight diesel instead of biodiesel, as evidenced by Thailand’s reversal in mandates.
That, in turn, has implications on crude pricing. While OPEC+ is stubbornly sticking to its gentle approach to managing global crude supply, the stunning rebound in Asian demand has already kept the consumption side tight to match that supply. Crude prices above US$100/b are a recipe for demand destruction, and Asian economies have been preparing for this by looking at alternatives; biofuels for example. In the past four years, Indonesia has converted some of its oil refineries into biodiesel plants; in China, stricter crude import quotas are paving the way for China to clamp down on its status of a fuels exporter in favour of self-sustainability. But what happens when crude prices are high, but the prices of alternatives are higher? That is the case for palm oil now, where the gasoil-palm spread is now triple the previous average.
Part of this situation is due to market dynamics. Part of it is due to geopolitical effects. But part of it is also due to Indonesia’s knee-jerk reaction. Supply disruption at the level of a blanket ban is always seismic and kicks off a chain of unintended consequences; see the OPEC oil shocks of the 70s. Indonesia’s palm oil export ban is almost at that level. ‘Indefinite’ is a vague term and offers no consolation to markets looking for direction. Damage will be done, even if the ban lasts a month. But the longer it lasts – Indonesian general elections are due in February 2024 – the more serious the consequences could be. And the more the oil and refining industry in Asia will have to think about their preconceived notions of the future of oil in the region.
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