SINGAPORE (Bloomberg) -- OPEC can rest easy even on the off chance that Donald Trump’s plan to sell U.S. oil reserves comes to fruition, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Potential sales from a bid to cut the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve by more than half over the next decade would be “negligible” relative to the size of OPEC’s output curbs and the global oil market, the bank said in a May 23 report. Instead, it would strain logistics on the Gulf Coast where most of emergency stockpiles are located, Goldman said, adding that there’s “high uncertainty on whether such a measure will be adopted.”
Goldman’s view is in contrast to some analysts who predict that the potential sales may undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to shrink a global glut and prop up prices. OPEC and other nations are gathering in Vienna this week to decide whether to prolong a six-month output-cut deal beyond June. Futures in New York rose for a sixth day, trading near a one-month high.
“Impact locally would likely prove more important than on the global market, given the sharp ramp up in U.S. drilling and the steady production growth we expect will require new infrastructure capacity, from moving oil to the coasts to increasing exports,” Goldman analyst Damien Courvalin wrote in the report.
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 16 September 2019 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b
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