World production of crude and liquids has been revised slightly downward from EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for both 2017 and 2018. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on May 25, 2017, and announced an extension to production cuts that were originally set to end this month. The agreed-upon OPEC crude oil production target remains at 32.5 million barrels per day (b/d) through the end of the first quarter of 2018. EIA now forecasts OPEC members’ crude oil production to average 32.3 million b/d in 2017 and 32.8 million b/d in 2018, about 0.2 million b/d and 0.4 million b/d, respectively, lower than previously forecast. However, continuing production growth in many non-OPEC countries is expected to moderate the pace of global liquid fuels inventory draws in 2017 and lead to a small inventory build in 2018.
EIA now forecasts OPEC crude oil and other liquids production to average 39.6 million b/d from the third quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2018 (340,000 b/d lower than previously forecast). Non-OPEC production averages 59.6 million b/d over this period, up from 58.3 million b/d over the same period a year earlier. Considering both OPEC and non-OPEC production forecasts and the outlook for demand growth, EIA now expects an average global inventory draw of 100,000 b/d through the first quarter of 2018. The largest draws are expected in the third quarter of 2017, when global crude oil and other liquids inventories are forecast to fall by an average of 430,000 b/d
Inventory draws of this magnitude suggest the possibility of some upward pressure on crude oil prices over the coming months. The third quarter 2017 Brent spot price forecast is $54/b in EIA’s June STEO, up from $52/b in the May STEO. However, because U.S. tight oil production is relatively responsive to changes in oil prices, and given an estimated six-month lag between a change in oil prices and realized production, higher crude oil prices in mid-2017 have the potential to raise U.S. supply in 2018.
The largest global inventory increase in the forecast occurs in the second quarter of 2018, when Brazilian and OPEC production are expected to realize quarterly increases of 570,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d, respectively. The expectation of supply growth in 2018 could contribute to oil price weakness in late 2017 and early 2018; the June STEO’s Brent spot price forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is $52/b, $3/b lower than in the previous forecast. The current forecast assumes OPEC cuts will be extended beyond March 2018, but that non-compliance, which begins to grow late in 2017, increases somewhat in the second half of 2018. Although this forecast reflects the assumption of only partial OPEC compliance with a second production-cut extension in 2018, any extension provides some support for crude oil prices, even if only temporarily, and partially offsets downward price pressure from growing inventories.
The June STEO forecasts a 2017 average spot price for Brent crude oil of $53/b, unchanged from the previous STEO, along with a $56/b price forecast for 2018, $1/b lower than expected last month. WTI prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent in both 2017 and 2018 (Figure 2). As always, all oil price forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty. For example, NYMEX contract values for September 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending June 1 suggest that a range of $39/b to $64/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in September 2017 at the 95% confidence level; also, as shown in the figure, the range encompassing current market expectations at this confidence level widens for longer time horizons.
U.S. crude oil production increases through the forecast, averaging 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 10.0 million b/d in 2018. The 2018 forecast exceeds the previous record production level of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. Growth in U.S. production of crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids has been the largest contributor to the 820,000 b/d of non-OPEC liquids supply growth from January through May 2017. Continued increases in drilling activity in U.S. shale basins, particularly in Texas, support production increases throughout the forecast. The largest expansion for U.S. production occurs in the fourth quarter of 2017, which averages a quarter-over-quarter rise of 330,000 b/d.
U.S. average regular gasoline price increases, diesel retail price drops
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price rose slightly from the previous week, remaining virtually unchanged at $2.41 per gallon on May 29, up three cents from the same time last year. The Midwest and Gulf Coast prices each rose two cents to $2.32 per gallon and $2.17 per gallon, respectively, while the Rocky Mountain and East Coast prices each increased one cent to $2.43 per gallon per gallon and $2.35 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast price dropped two cents to $2.94 per gallon.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell one cent to $2.56 per gallon on May 29, 16 cents higher than a year ago. The West Coast, East Coast, Midwest, and Gulf Coast prices each dropped one cent to $2.84 per gallon, $2.60 per gallon, $2.51 per gallon, and $2.42 per gallon, respectively, while the Rocky Mountain price increased less than a penny, remaining at $2.66 per gallon.
Propane inventories gain
U.S. propane stocks increased by 3.3 million barrels last week to 50.4 million barrels as of June 2, 2017, 26.9 million barrels (34.8%) lower than a year ago. Gulf Coast, Midwest, Rocky Mountain/West Coast, and East Coast inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels, 0.5 million barrels, 0.3 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.5% of total propane inventories.
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Student guardian visa subclass 590 allows you to stay in Australia as a guardian or custodian or relative of an overseas student who is pursuing an education course in Australia. With 590 student guardian visa, You can stay with your child to take care of him/her in Australia until the course complete. Your child age must below then 18th years old before applying for a student guardian visa 590. If you're a relative then you can stay with the child by submitting written permission of a child’s caretakers like a guardian or grandparents. If your child is older then eighteen years then to apply for visa subclass 590 you need to show that you have special emergency circumstances. You can apply for a 590 student guardian visa outside from Australia and acquire enrollment in alternative courses up to three months with a 590 visa. You will be authorized to take care more then one child if you have. You can do the other study or coach just for 3 months with this Student Guardian Visa Subclass 590.
Step By Step Process About 590 Visa
1.Before Applying for Visa
Meet Eligibility Criteria
• You must be a parent or grandparents or relative of a non-Australian child who is below 18th of age.
• If you want to apply from inside of Australia then you need to hold a substantive visa except for domestic worker, temporary work visa, transit visa, visitor visa, etc.
• If your another child who is below 18th and not coming to Australia with you then you need to give evidence that you have made welfare arrangement for the child.
• You have to account for your all healthcare expenses so make sure that medical insurance can only reduce your expenses.
• Your past immigration history must be credible like you must not have any visa cancellation history.
• Your intention should be genuine at the time of applying for student guardian visa 590 and it should be not against Australian culture and policies.
• If your family members are also applying with you then they also need to meet health policies of the Australian government
• Only a parent or grandparents or custodian or step parents of an overseas student visa 500 holder can apply for this student guardian visa subclass 590.
• If parents are not present due to any reason for looking after the visa subclass 500 holder student then any relative can apply for this 590 student guardian visa.
• You must be a guardian of an international student who must be below 18th of age except for exceptional circumstances.
• You have to give assurance to immigration authorities that you will be able to provide welfare.
• Your age must be above 21 years old before going to apply for a student guardian visa 590.
• You have to pay back any type of debt to the Australian government if you have.
• If you have another child aged 6 years old then you can bring him/her to Australia but if your child if older then 6 years then you need to show emergency condition to bring him/her to Australia.
•Provide character certificate and other national identities.
•Submit bank documents and salary slips to prove that you will be enough capable to give welfare to the student.
•Provide guardianship documents to prove your credibility to that child.
•Translate your non-English documents into English.
•Submit legal student guardianship form.
•Provide dependent under 6 documents if you bring your child who is under 6 years of age.
2. Processing Time And Cost Of This Visa
Visa subclass 590 cost starts from AUD 560. This visa 590 may proceed in 2 to 4 months. But in case you forget to submit any documents then you processing time of visa can be increased. Your visa application processing time can be increased if you provide incomplete information.
3. Apply For The Visa
You need to apply online for the 590 student guardian visa 6 weeks before the student’s course starts. At the time applying for the visa, you have to prove that you are genuine and legal applicant by submitting legal documents. If you submit illegal information to immigration authorities then they have the authority to cancel your visa application immediately. You and your relative which is listed in visa application will not able to get a visa for the next 10 years in case of any fraud by you. You should contact an experienced Immigration Agent Adelaide.
4. Conditions After You Have Applied For The Visa
• You are not allowed to do any type of work in Australia.
• You can study only for 3 months.
• With visa subclass 590 you can’t apply for another visa
• At the time of leaving Australia, you must have brought the student to your country.
• If you have another child who is below 6th years of age then you can bring him/her to Australia.
Get The Direction To Migration Agent Adelaide - ISA Migrations and Education Consultants.
U.S. petroleum and natural gas production increased by 16% and by 12%, respectively, in 2018, and these totals combined established a new production record. The United States surpassed Russia in 2011 to become the world's largest producer of natural gas and surpassed Saudi Arabia in 2018 to become the world's largest producer of petroleum. Last year’s increase in the United States was one of the largest absolute petroleum and natural gas production increases from a single country in history.
For the United States and Russia, petroleum and natural gas production is almost evenly split; Saudi Arabia's production heavily favors petroleum. Petroleum production is composed of several types of liquid fuels, including crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), and bitumen. The United States produced 28.7 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of petroleum in 2018, which was composed of 80% crude oil and condensate and 20% NGPLs.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on International Energy Statistics
Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids.
U.S. crude oil production increased by 17% in 2018, setting a new record of nearly 11.0 million barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to 22.8 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in energy terms. Production in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico contributed to most of the growth in U.S. crude oil production. The United States also produced 4.3 million b/d of NGPLs in 2018, equivalent to 5.8 quadrillion Btu. U.S. NGPL production has more than doubled since 2008, when the market for NGPLs began to expand.
U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 12% in 2018 to 28.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 31.5 quadrillion Btu, reaching a new record high for the second year in a row. Ongoing growth in liquefied natural gas export capacity and the expanded ability to reach new markets have supported increases in U.S. natural gas production.
Russia’s crude oil and natural gas production also reached record levels in 2018, encouraged by increasing global demand. Russia exports most of the crude oil that it produces to European countries and to China. Since 2016, nearly 60% of Russia’s crude oil exports have gone to European member countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Russia’s crude oil is also an important source of supply to China and neighboring countries.
Russia’s natural gas production increased by 7% in 2018, which exceeded the growth in exports. The Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, which loaded its first cargo in December 2017, can liquefy more than 16 million tons of natural gas annually and accounts for almost all of the recent growth in Russia’s LNG exports. Since 2000, more than 80% of Russia’s natural gas exports have been sent to Europe.
Saudi Arabia’s annual average crude oil production increased slightly in 2018, but it remained lower than in 2016, when Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output reached a record high. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production reached an all-time monthly high in November 2018 before the December 2018 agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend production cuts.
In addition to exporting and refining crude oil, Saudi Arabia consumes crude oil directly for electricity generation, which makes Saudi Arabian crude oil consumption highest in the summer when electricity demand for space cooling is relatively high. Since 2016, Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn for electric power generation has decreased for a number of reasons, including demand reductions from a partial withdraw of power subsidies, greater use of residual fuel oil, and increased availability of domestic natural gas.
Crude oil exports account for about 60% of Saudi Arabia’s total economic output. China, along with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States remain critical markets for Saudi Arabia’s petroleum exports.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 12 August 2019 – Brent: US$58/b; WTI: US$54/b
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