Last Updated: August 6, 2017
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As global oil stocks stubbornly hold on to the brims and crude struggles to stay in the $50-60/barrel band, OPEC and its non-OPEC collaborators are facing declining revenues and increasingly wavering quota discipline. Meanwhile, the US, Libya and Nigeria collectively pumped 1.6 million b/d more crude in July versus last October. Deepening the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts appears to be the need of the hour but that is not on the table unless there is full compliance and Libya and Nigeria are brought into the fold of the production restraint agreement. The emphasis has turned to ensuring full discipline, something that will need a lot of effort for relatively small immediate gains. OPEC wants to achieve compliance through monitoring members’ exports, which is neither easy nor fail-safe.

There is a new mantra in the OPEC/non-OPEC camp of collaborators wondering how to make their production cuts count and prop up crude closer to 2017 highs: target exports, not output.

While monitoring exports seems logical enough and might offer a distraction to producers struggling to reap the promised reward of higher crude prices in return for cutting back their sales volumes, the solution is not that simple.

First, the basics. The OPEC and non-OPEC supply restraint agreements of last November and December set individual country ceilings for crude production, in keeping with OPEC’s policy through the years. Accordingly, the OPEC/non-OPEC joint ministerial monitoring committee looks at production levels not exports of the participating countries.

While a country’s production and export levels would broadly correlate, they can diverge as a result of variations in how much of the total output is consumed at home as well as barrels moving in and out of its storage.

In countries such as Saudi Arabia, where direct-burning of crude for power generation typically spikes to meet increased electricity demand in summer months, volumes available for export can drop substantially. The Kingdom plans to export 300,000 b/d less in August compared with May, its energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on the sidelines of the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 24. However, such big seasonal swings are rare among other producers.

To be very precise, or pedantic even, OPEC’s objective of bringing OECD commercial oil stocks down to within five-year average levels would be achieved if it curbs exports, not just production. But why stocks are not draining at the rate originally expected is not a question of discrepancy between exports and production so much as a suspected divergence between the production numbers being reported by some of the participating countries and the barrels actually being exported by them. Tracking exports could be a way to catch them out, if that is indeed the case.

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Forecasting Bangladesh Tyre Market | Zulker Naeen

Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.

The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.

The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.

The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.

In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.

However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.

Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.

Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.

This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.

It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.

January, 18 2019
Your Weekly Update: 14 - 18 January 2019

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 14 January 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$51/b

  • After a rally, crude oil prices took a breather at the start of this week, as the market moved from a bullish mood to a cautious one as slowing Chinese trade data spooked the market
  • The US government shutdown – now the longest ever in history – continues with no end in sight, with Republicans and President Donald Trump at a stalemate with energised Democrats
  • That ended a week-long rally that allowed crude oil to bounce back from sub-US$50/b levels in December over OPEC+’s implementation of a new deal to shrink supplies and Saudi Arabia’s promise to ‘do more if needed’
  • Even Russia, which showed some reluctance in implementing a speedy cut, has made strides in reducing output, releasing data that showed that production fell by 30,000 b/d in December and is on track for a decrease of 50,000 b/d in January relative to October levels
  • However, the OPEC+ group is now reportedly struggling to set a date for their next meeting, where the supply deal will be reviewed; the review is set for April, ahead of OPEC’s usual Vienna meeting in June/July, but an April review is necessary to assess the expiration of American waivers on Iranian crude
  • Some downside to price trends is that the waivers on Iranian crude exports have nullified the impact of American sanctions; both Turkey and India have recently resumed imports of Iranian crude after a brief hiatus, with India electing to pay for all its crude in rupees
  • Although WTI prices have improved, American drillers are still reticent to add sites, wary of changing market conditions; Baker Hughes indicates that the active American drill count was flat last week, with the loss of 4 oil rigs offset by a gain of 4 gas ones
  • Crude price outlook: Upward momentum should continue with crude price this week, but at a more gradual pace, as fears of a slowing global economy weigh on the market. Brent should stay in the US$61-63/b range and WTI in the US$52-54/b range


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • BP is proceeding with a major US$1.3 billion expansion of the Atlantis Phase 3 in the Gulf of Mexico, aimed at adding 38,000 b/d of additional output
  • Venezuela has announced plans to remap its Caribbean oil and gas prospects, a move that potentially puts it on collision course with ExxonMobil over the country’s long-disputed borders with the now oil-rich Guyana
  • New seismic studies at BP have identified a billion more barrels of oil in place at the deepwater Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico
  • Saudi Arabia has published an updated figure of its oil reserves – its first in 40 years – pegging total volumes at 268.5 billion barrels
  • Norway has cut its crude production forecast, predicting the output will be 1.42 mmb/d in 2019, the lowest level since 1988
  • BP is reportedly looking to sell its 28% stake in the North Sea Shearwater assets to offset its recent US$10.6 billion acquisition of US shale fields
  • The Unity fields in South Sudan have resumed production, after being halted for five years over a civil war, with initial production targeted at 20,000 b/d
  • Eni and Thailand’s PTTEP have secured exploration rights to an oil and gas concession in Abu Dhabi, with Adnoc participating at 60% if oil is struck
  • TransCanada Corp – ahead of name change to TC Energy – is planning to start construction on the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline in June, even in the face of continued social and legal setbacks
  • Spirit Energy’s Oda field in the Norwegian North Sea has received permission from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate to start up
  • Aker Energy has completed successful appraisal of the offshore Pecan field in Ghana, estimating some 450-550 mmboe of resources in place
  • Shell and BP have submitted plans to begin exploratory drilling in Brazil’s Pau Brasil and Saturno pre-salt areas in early 2020

Downstream

  • Saudi Arabia has reiterated plans to build a US$10 billion oil refinery in Pakistan’s deepwater port of Gwadar, part of the larger China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan that is part of the Belt and Road initiative
  • Shell Chemicals has started up its fourth alpha olefins unit at in Geismar, Louisiana, adding 425,000 tpa of capacity to a new total of 1.3 mtpa
  • After being idled over the paralysis between PDVSA and ConocoPhillips, the 335,000 b/d Isla refinery in Curacao has restarted, with operations likely to shift from PDVSA to Saudi Aramco’s Motiva US refining subsidiary

Natural Gas/LNG

  • After seemingly receiving official go-ahead from all levels of government and even indigenous groups, Shell’s US$31 billion Kitimat LNG project in Canada has now been blockaded by a group of protesting First Nation holdouts
  • Completion of major LNG projects in Australia’s west coast have allowed its LNG exports to increase by 23% in 2018, with greater growth expected in 2019
  • The NordStream 2, long championed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, now faces new opposition in Germany over Russian global political interference – which could result in the controversial pipeline being delayed or cancelled
  • Shell has completed its acquisition of a 26% stake in the Hazira LNG and port venture in India from Total, bringing its equity interest to full ownership
  • BP has announced plans to drill six new exploration wells in Azerbaijan by 2020, hoping to strike a new natural gas play to rival its giant Shah Deniz field
January, 18 2019
Latest issue of GEO ExPro magazine covers geoscience and oil and gas activity focusing on Frontier Exploration and the Gulf of Mexico

GEO ExPro Vol. 15, No. 6 was published on 10th December 2018 bringing light to the latest science and technology activity in the global geoscience community within the oil, gas and energy sector.

This issue focusses on frontier exploration, downhole acquisition tools and how we can collaboratively increase the efficiency of the exploration and production of oil, gas and energy resources. With a geographical focus on the Gulf of Mexico, this issue provides a lesson on the carbonate geology of the Florida Keys and details coverage of newly improved tectonic restorations of the US and Mexican conjugate margins which have enabled enhanced mega-regional hydrocarbon play and reservoir fairway maps of the region.

You can download the PDF of GEO ExPro magazine for FREE and sign up to GEO ExPro’s weekly updates and online exclusives to receive the latest articles direct to your inbox.

To access the latest issue, please visit: https://www.geoexpro.com/magazine/vol-15-no-6


January, 17 2019