Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of PetroEdge
Last Updated: August 7, 2017
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Business Trends
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In retrospect, it will be seen as a good decision. Petronas is pulling out of the US$29 billion Pacific Northwest LNG project in British Columbia, Canada. The Malaysian state oil company cited ‘prolonged depressed prices and shifts in the energy industry’ as the reasons for exiting the long-gestating project. The former refers to the current slump in LNG prices, which shows no sign of improving, and the latter refers to America’s LNG renaissance, founded not on mammoth expensive projects but nimble, dynamic plays. The decision to admit defeat has not been an easy one, but it is the right one.

The initially announced cancellation of Pacific Northwest LNG in the press, is the fifth major LNG export casualty in the last 18 months, joining Fisherman’s Landing and Browse in Australia, Oregon LNG in the USA, and Prince Rupert, also in British Columbia, to be shelved. The projects that would have joined Wheatstone, Gorgon, Ichthys and Prelude are now victims of the painful rebalancing the LNG industry has to undergo, as suppliers yield power to buyers, who for the first time in LNG history have a luxury of choice and are exerting their rights.

It might have been different, but Pacific Northwest also came under much pressure of local politics. Located in an environmentally sensitive area of British Columbia, environmentalists have railed against the project from the start, even as the Canadian federal government and the BC state government gave their approvals after extensive environment impact studies. Then in May, the ruling NDP lost their majority in BC state elections, forcing them to form a support coalition with the Green Party, vehemently opposed to the project. When that happened, the writing was always on the wall for PNW.

It is for the best. The nature of the geography at the PNW site required high costs to build the necessary infrastructure and pipelines, far higher than those smaller, more deft producers along the more established US Gulf. High costs require high prices to recoup. In the past, this would be solved by locking buyers into long-term contracts at fixed prices. That is no longer a popular option; not with US producers like Cheniere offering short, flexible contracts that countries like Japan, South Korea and China find extremely enticing. Then, battling hostile neighbours, Qatar lifted its moratorium on the vast North Field – planning to double production at the source of some of the cheapest gas in the world. You also have to consider all the African LNG projects being developed, many with stakes held by major Asian buyers, cutting off routes for Canadian supplies.

This is not the end of LNG in Canada. But it is a refocusing. The other partners in Pacific Northwest are looking at re-purposing the project, or parts of it, into a more cost-effective solution. Indian Oil has already said it will talk with the other partners – Sinopec, Japan’s Japex Montney and Petroleum Brunei - to scout for an alternative and cheaper site. Even Petronas reiterates that this is not the end of its presence in Canada, aiming to continue to develop natural gas assets and possibly even participate in Shell’s Kitimat LNG project, also in British Columbia. All players will be careful and approach new opportunities with caution. Expect more of this over the next five years, which will be a period of consolidation and recalibration of major LNG projects into a few golden eggs rather than a whole basket. It is better that a few projects stay on hold for now, then obstinately push ahead and cause a collapse of the industry.

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In 2018, the United States consumed more energy than ever before

U.S. total energy consumption

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Primary energy consumption in the United States reached a record high of 101.3 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018, up 4% from 2017 and 0.3% above the previous record set in 2007. The increase in 2018 was the largest increase in energy consumption, in both absolute and percentage terms, since 2010.

Consumption of fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—grew by 4% in 2018 and accounted for 80% of U.S. total energy consumption. Natural gas consumption reached a record high, rising by 10% from 2017. This increase in natural gas, along with relatively smaller increases in the consumption of petroleum fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear electric power, more than offset a 4% decline in coal consumption.

U.S. total energy consumption

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Petroleum consumption in the United States increased to 20.5 million barrels per day (b/d), or 37 quadrillion Btu in 2018, up nearly 500,000 b/d from 2017 and the highest level since 2007. Growth was driven primarily by increased use in the industrial sector, which grew by about 200,000 b/d in 2018. The transportation sector grew by about 140,000 b/d in 2018 as a result of increased demand for fuels such as petroleum diesel and jet fuel.

Natural gas consumption in the United States reached a record high 83.1 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), the equivalent of 31 quadrillion Btu, in 2018. Natural gas use rose across all sectors in 2018, primarily driven by weather-related factors that increased demand for space heating during the winter and for air conditioning during the summer. As more natural gas-fired power plants came online and existing natural gas-fired power plants were used more often, natural gas consumption in the electric power sector increased 15% from 2017 levels to 29.1 Bcf/d. Natural gas consumption also grew in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in 2018, increasing 13%, 10%, and 4% compared with 2017 levels, respectively.

Coal consumption in the United States fell to 688 million short tons (13 quadrillion Btu) in 2018, the fifth consecutive year of decline. Almost all of the reduction came from the electric power sector, which fell 4% from 2017 levels. Coal-fired power plants continued to be displaced by newer, more efficient natural gas and renewable power generation sources. In 2018, 12.9 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity were retired, while 14.6 GW of net natural gas-fired capacity were added.

U.S. fossil fuel energy consumption by sector

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Renewable energy consumption in the United States reached a record high 11.5 quadrillion Btu in 2018, rising 3% from 2017, largely driven by the addition of new wind and solar power plants. Wind electricity consumption increased by 8% while solar consumption rose 22%. Biomass consumption, primarily in the form of transportation fuels such as fuel ethanol and biodiesel, accounted for 45% of all renewable consumption in 2018, up 1% from 2017 levels. Increases in wind, solar, and biomass consumption were partially offset by a 3% decrease in hydroelectricity consumption.

U.S. energy consumption of selected fuels

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Nuclear consumption in the United States increased less than 1% compared with 2017 levels but still set a record for electricity generation in 2018. The number of total operable nuclear generating units decreased to 98 in September 2018 when the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station in New Jersey was retired. Annual average nuclear capacity factors, which reflect the use of power plants, were slightly higher at 92.6% in 2018 compared with 92.2% in 2017.

More information about total energy consumption, production, trade, and emissions is available in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.

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A New Frontier for LNG Pricing and Contracts

How’s this for a first? As the world’s demand for LNG continues to grow, the world’s largest LNG supplier (Shell) has inked an innovative new deal with one of the world’s largest LNG buyers (Tokyo Gas), including a coal pricing formula link for the first time in a large-scale LNG contract. It’s a notable change in an industry that has long depended on pricing gas off crude, but could this be a sign of new things to come?

Both parties have named the deal an ‘innovative solution’, with Tokyo Gas hailing it as a ‘further diversification of price indexation’ and Shell calling it a ‘tailored solutions including flexible contract terms under a variety of pricing indices.’ Beneath the rhetoric, the actual nuts and bolts is slightly more mundane. The pricing formula link to coal indexation will only be used for part of the supply, with the remainder priced off the conventional oil & gas-linked indexation ie. Brent and Henry Hub pricing. This makes sense, since Tokyo Gas will be sourcing LNG from Shell’s global portfolio – which includes upcoming projects in Canada and the US Gulf Coast. Neither party provided the split of volumes under each pricing method, meaning that the coal-linked portion could be small, acting as a hedge.

However, it is likely that the push for this came from Tokyo Gas. As one of the world’s largest LNG buyers, Tokyo Gas has been at the forefront of redefining the strict traditions of LNG contracts. Reading between the lines, this deal most likely does not include any destination restriction clauses, a change that Tokyo Gas has been particularly pushing for. With the trajectory for Brent crude prices uncertain – owing to a difficult-to-predict balance between OPEC+ and US shale – creating a third link in the pricing formula might be a good move. Particularly since in Japan, LNG faces off directly with coal in power generation. With the general retreat from nuclear power in the country, the coal-LNG battle will intensify.

What does this mean for the rest of the industry? Could coal-linked contracts become the norm? The industry has been discussing new innovations in LNG contracts at the recent LNG2019 conference in Shanghai, while the influx of new American LNG players hungry to seal deals has unleashed a new sense of flexibility. But will there be takers?

I am not a pricing expert but the answer is maybe. While Tokyo Gas predominantly uses natural gas as its power generation fuel (hence the name), it is competing with other players using cheaper coal-based generation. So in Japan, LNG and coal are direct competitors. This is also true in South Korea and much of Southeast Asia. In the two rising Asian LNG powerhouses, however, the situation is different. In China – on track to become the world’s largest LNG buyer in the next two decades – LNG is rarely used in power generation, consumed instead by residential heating. In India – where LNG imports are also rising sharply – LNG is primarily aimed at petrochemicals and fertiliser. LNG based power generation in China and India could see a surge, of course, but that will take plenty of infrastructure, and time, to build. It is far more likely that their contracts will be based off existing LNG or natural gas benchmarks, several of which are being developed in Asia alone.

If it takes off  the coal-link LNG formula is likely to remain a Asian-based development. But with the huge volumes demanded by countries in this region, that’s still a very big niche. Enough perhaps for the innovation to slowly gain traction elsewhere, next stop -  Europe?

The Shell-Tokyo Gas Deal:

Contract – April 2020-March 2030 (10 Years)

Volume – 500,000 metric tons per year

Source – Shell global portfolio

Pricing – Formula based on coal and oil & gas-linked indexes

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