During my first month as a young drilling engineer, I was sent for a hitch on a drilling rig at offshore Terengganu. My head was giddy with the vision of the awe I would receive upon stepping on to the semi, and impress people with my genius. After all, I had in my backpack my university TI82 graphing calculator, a thick company issued laptop, Excel pre-installed and I had made a point to read at least 1/3 of the Drilling for Dummies book during the weekend before. I entered the chopper cabin with hopes and dreams, and was sure that this was the start of an illustrious career.
Unfortunately, my earlier personal euphoria was gutted swiftly when I exited the chopper in a dazed stupor, trying to get my bearings on which was port and starboard, and wondering why nobody can just say left or right. Pointed to the briefing room direction by the HLO, I still managed to successfully go down the wrong set of stairs, while struggling to keep upright on non existent sea legs fighting against the rig sway. After finally being pushed impatiently by a fellow traveler to the right doorway, I sat gratefully in the front row through the safety induction, looking for the nearest waste paper basket in case my digested lunch decides to come up the wrong way. After the last presentation slide, I shook hands with the rig OIM and jolly old rotund medic, who then proceeded excitedly to show me locations of the galley, lifeboats and room. The images of the food being prepared in the galley, and the sight of tightly made top bunk in the four person occupied room, filled my mind with hopes for dinner and a deep slumber. Unfortunately those images were replaced with dread, when I was informed that actually my work shift had started. And like everyone else, especially as a newcomer, I would start my shift with the honour of meeting the drilling supervisor, aka the king of the rig, aka the company man.
Gingerly swaying in my shiny boots, I walked through the corridors and found the company man's office, eerily situated at the dimly lit end with the door half open. I knocked, and only silence greeted me. I knocked again, and a sudden bravado overcame my senses and I stepped in, because it occurred to me that technically, I was a company man too. Shifting to the middle of the room, my presence continued to go unnoticed by the man in charge. He was just sitting there on a rickety chair, gazing out to the rig floor through the smudged safety glasses and half opaque window. He looked very uncomfortable, hunched in filthy coveralls withered by what I assume to be continuous rig laundry and exposure to mud and sun, but he maintain his slouched posture in deep thought. I tried to calm my nerves and grunted a half swallowed "Hello, I'm Adrin, boss", and waited for him to respond. For another full 5 mins he continued his silent meditation, his deadlocked eyes just continued to stare into space. Then, his cracked lips moved ever so slightly, lisping the words no driller ever wants to hear, "We just stuck pipe". Unfortunately for me, I didn't know how dire a situation that actually was, and with the cheeriest voice I could muster, I said, "Oh good, then I can learn about what stuck pipe is!". He looked up and peered at me through his safety glasses, and gave me the most disgusted grunt. "You are here to learn, right? Then by all means, learn. Get your PPE, I'll show you what a stuck pipe is. I want you to figure out how to get free, and until you let me know how you are able to do that, or we free the pipe, you will spend your shifts on the rig floor. You will only come down for meals and safety meetings. Is that clear, whoever you say you are?".
Side note: Just for the benefit of non-drillers, during drilling operations, a pipe often with expensive bottom hole assembly (tools, or referred to as BHA) is considered stuck if it cannot be freed from the hole without damaging the pipe, and without exceeding the drilling rig’s maximum allowed hook load.
So there I was, first week offshore, already incurring the wrath of the company man, and already bought a front row seat on a stuck pipe event. The experience itself, is as interesting as the namesake, a pipe stuck, stationery and unmoving. Most days were spent with me spewing obvious solutions like "pull harder...let's try twisting it...let's pull now because maybe whatever has the pipe in its jaws has tired of holding on to it.." As time passed to days, and into the second week, I saw the mighty top drive pull and jar up and down on the pipe in futility, and over time people started to talk to it, hug it, curse at it, but most of the time stare at it. Somebody actually suggested that we slaughter a black chicken and drip the chicken's blood on to the stick up, but when I took the idea seriously and suggested it to town, I could still recall the cruel laughter on the other line and comments about how the contracting to buy the animal alone would take too long. What i learned though was, once a pipe is stuck, it generally stays stuck. The only recovery was to continue to work on the pipe until we received approval to cut the pipe as deep as we can, and pump cement across the tools downhole and leave it buried. As we had nuclear sources in the tools, it was only until the government gave the approval on the 10th day, could the attempts to free the pipe cease, and I saw wireline tools run to cut the pipe, and the recalcitrant pipe finally was freed without the tools downhole, and cement plugs pumped above the abandoned BHA, tools worth millions of dollars left for the next generation to unearth.
Pictured: A picture I found online on how other crews help start the well process with prayers or Pooja. I hope that the flowers and belief did help this particular rig stay trouble free.
If there is anything that the oil fields ingrain into a man, it's humility. We can try to predict what will occur, be ready with an assortment of fallback plans and equipment, and try to avoid certain conditions that might lead to catastrophe. Unfortunately in drilling, we deal with the unknown. The mystery of the unknown is more prominent in exploration or appraisal drilling, but even in development mode, the formation drilled can throw us a curve ball. Every single meter drilled have different characteristics, but challenges for every single meter cannot be addressed with real time changes, at least not with the technology available now. Apart from managed pressure drilling technology, all wells are drilled with normalised planned parameters, tools, fluids and practices, and the mode is always progressing while avoiding catastrophe. But when stuck pipe occurs, while we can likely deduce that its most likely caused by a deviation, a practice that went wrong, we cannot expel the notion that there is the element of the unknown that the sentences the pipe to its final grave.
For non-drillers, I often explain a stuck pipe as an earthquake catching our tools. Indeed the simplified metaphor covers the likely causes of stuck pipe. Formation movement, debris, collapse, ruptures, key seats, pressure differentials are what the common man associates earthquakes with, albeit on a much larger scale. Unfortunately, more often than not, a stuck pipe is notched to a mistake made by the drilling crew. But drilling crews are also human. Training, drills, procedures, data analytics and supervision are all available for the driller and crew to make decisions, but just like our normalised parameters, they are often unable to predict and react easily for every single meter drilled. Thus a stuck pipe event will still remain a real catastrophic event, that until our technology catches up with real time response of equipment with real time inflow of data, we will have to put our faith on the team with the right attitude and knowledge to keep us out of trouble.
However, a stuck pipe event still remains a commercial event. While it does introduce its safety risks with possible flow inside the pipe due to trapped pressure, there are many other drilling incidents that are far worse, often involving immediate injuries, explosive events and death. While any stuck pipe event often brings me back to the memories of my youth, standing across an unmoving stub, full of despair, I would take a hundred stuck pipe events before I would go through the ordeal of having casualties under my watch. Our focus on performance and continued diligence in trouble shooting should never falter, and make we have less stuck pipes in our careers, but more importantly we all stay safe and return to our homes unhurt.
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory
In both 2019 and 2020, project developers in the United States installed more wind power capacity than any other generating technology. According to data recently published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, annual wind turbine capacity additions in the United States set a record in 2020, totaling 14.2 gigawatts (GW) and surpassing the previous record of 13.2 GW added in 2012. After this record year for wind turbine capacity additions, total wind turbine capacity in the United States is now 118 GW.
The impending phaseout of the full value of the U.S. production tax credit (PTC) at the end of 2020 primarily drove investments in wind turbine capacity that year, just as previous tax credit reductions led to significant wind capacity additions in 2012 and 2019. In December 2020, Congress extended the PTC for another year.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Texas has the most wind turbine capacity among states: 30.2 GW were installed as of December 2020. In 2020, Texas generated more electricity from wind than the next three highest states (Iowa, Oklahoma, and Kansas) combined. However, Texas generates and consumes more total electricity than any other state, and wind remains slightly less than 20% of the state’s electricity generation mix.
In two other states—Iowa and Kansas—wind is the most prevalent source of in-state electricity generation. In both states, wind surpassed coal as the state’s top electricity generation source in 2019.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Nationally, 8.4% of utility-scale electricity generation in 2020 came from wind turbines. Many of the turbines added in late 2020 will contribute to increases in wind-powered electricity generation in 2021. EIA expects wind’s share of electricity generation to increase to 10% in 2021, according to forecasts in EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook.
It was a good run while it lasted. Almost exactly a decade ago, the military junta in Myanmar was dissolved, following civilian elections. The country’s figurehead, Aung San Suu Kyi, was released from house arrest to lead, following in the footsteps of her father. Although her reputation has since been tarnished with the Rohingya crisis, she remains beloved by most of her countrymen, and her installation as Myanmar’s de facto leader lead to a golden economic age. Sanctions were eased, trade links were restored, and investment flowed in, not least in the energy sector. Yet the military still remained a powerful force, lurking in the background. In early February, they bared their fangs. Following an election in November 2020 in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won an outright majority in both houses of Parliament. A coup d’etat was instigated, with the Tatmadaw – the Burmese military – decrying fraud in the election. Key politicians were arrested, and rule returned to the military.
For many Burmese, this was a return to a dark past that many thought was firmly behind them. Widespread protests erupted, quickly turning violent. The Tatmadaw still has an iron grip, but it has created some bizarre situations – ordinary Burmese citizens calling on Facebook and foreign governments to impose sanctions on their country, while the Myanmar ambassador to the United Nations was fired for making an anti-army speech at the UN General Assembly.
The path forward for Myanmar from this point is unclear. The Tatmadaw has declared a state of emergency lasting up to a year, promising new elections by the end of 2021. There is little doubt that the NLD will win yet another supermajority in the election, IF they are fair and free. But that is a big if. Meanwhile, the coup threatens to return Myanmar to the pariah state that it was pre-2010. And threatens to abort all the grand economic progress made since.
In the decade since military rule was abolished, development in Myanmar has been rapid. In the capital city Yangon, glittering new malls have been developed. The Ministry of Energy in 2009 was housed in a crumbling former high school; today, it occupies a sprawling complex in the new administrative capital of Naypyidaw. While not exactly up to the level of the Department of Energy in Washington DC, it is certainly no longer than ministry that was once reputed to take up to three years to process exploration licences for offshore oil and gas blocks.
And it is that very future that is now at stake. Energy has been a great focus for investment in Myanmar, drawn by the rich offshore deposits in the Andaman Sea and the country’s location as a possible pipeline route between the Middle East and inland China. Estimates suggest that – based on pre-coup trends – Myanmar was likely to attract over US$1.1 billion in upstream investment in 2023, more than four times projected for 2021 and almost 20 times higher than 2011. The funds would not only be directed at maintaining production at the current Yadana, Yetagun, Zawtika and Shwe gas fields – where offshore production is mainly exported to Thailand, but also upcoming megaprojects such as Woodside and Total’s A-6 deepwater natural gas and PTTEP’s Aung Sinka Block M3 developments.
The coup now presents foreign investors in Myanmar’s upstream energy sector with a conundrum and reputational risk. Stay, and risk being seen as abetting an undemocratic government? Or leave, and risk being flushing away years of hard work? The home governments of foreign investors such as Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Woodside, Petronas, ONGC, Nippon Oil, Kogas, POSCO, Sumitomo, Mitsui and others have already condemned the coup. For now these companies are hoping that foreign pressure will resolve the situation in a short enough timeframe to allow business to resume. Australia’s Woodside Petroleum has already called the coup a ‘transitionary issue’ claiming that it will not affect its exploration plans, while other operators such as Total and Petronas have focused on the safety of their employees as they ‘monitor the evolving situation’.
But the longer the coup lasts without a resolution satisfactory to the international community and the longer the protests last (and the more deaths that result from that), the more untenable the position of the foreign upstream players will be. Asian investors, especially the Chinese, mainly through CNPC/PetroChina, and the Thais, through PTTEP - will be relatively insulated, but American and European majors face bigger risks. This could jeopardise key projects such as the Myanmar-to-China crude oil and natural gas pipeline project (a 771km connection to Yunnan), two LNG-to-power projects (Thaketa and Thilawa, meant to deal with the country’s chronic blackouts) and the massive Block A-6 gas development in the Shwe Yee Htun field by Woodside which just kicked off a fourth drilling campaign in December.
It is a big unknown. The Tatmadaw has proven to be impervious to foreign criticism in the past, ignoring even the most stringent sanctions thrown their way. In fact, it was a huge surprise that the army even relinquished power back in 2010. But the situation has changed. The Myanmar population is now more connected and more aware, while the army has profited off the opening of the economy. The economic consequences of returning to its darker days might be enough to trigger a resolution. But that’s not a guarantee. What is certain is that the coup will have a lasting effect on energy investment and plans in Myanmar. How long and how deep is a question that only the Tatmadaw can answer.
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The year 2020 was exceptional in many ways, to say the least. All of which, lockdowns and meltdowns, managed to overshadow a changing of the guard in the LNG world. After leapfrogging Indonesia as the world’s largest LNG producer in 2006, Qatar was surpassed by Australia in 2020 when the final figures for 2019 came in. That this happened was no surprise; it was always a foregone conclusion given Australia’s massive LNG projects developed over the last decade. Were it not for the severe delays in completion, Australia would have taken the crown much earlier; in fact, by capacity, Australia already sailed past Qatar in 2018.
But Australia should not rest on its laurels. The last of the LNG mega-projects in Western Australia, Shell’s giant floating Prelude and Inpex’s sprawling Ichthys onshore complex, have been completed. Additional phases will provide incremental new capacity, but no new mega-projects are on the horizon, for now. Meanwhile, after several years of carefully managing its vast capacity, Qatar is now embarking on its own LNG infrastructure investment spree that should see it reclaim its LNG exporter crown in 2030.
Key to this is the vast North Field, the single largest non-associated gas field in the world. Straddling the maritime border between tiny Qatar and its giant neighbour Iran to the north, Qatar Petroleum has taken the final investment decision to develop the North Field East Project (NFE) this month. With a total price tag of US$28.75 billion, development will kick off in 2021 and is expected to start production in late 2025. Completion of the NFE will raise Qatar’s LNG production capacity from a current 77 million tons per annum to 110 mmtpa. This is easily higher than Australia’s current installed capacity of 88 mmtpa, but the difficulty in anticipating future utilisation rates means that Qatar might not retake pole position immediately. But it certainly will by 2030, when the second phase of the project – the North Field South (NFS) – is slated to start production. This would raise Qatar’s installed capacity to 126 mmtpa, cementing its lead further still, with Qatar Petroleum also stating that it is ‘evaluating further LNG capacity expansions’ beyond that ceiling. If it does, then it should be more big leaps, since this tiny country tends to do things in giant steps, rather than small jumps.
Will there be enough buyers for LNG at the time, though? With all the conversation about sustainability and carbon neutrality, does natural gas still have a role to play? Predicting the future is always difficult, but the short answer, based on current trends, it is a simple yes.
Supermajors such as Shell, BP and Total have set carbon neutral targets for their operations by 2050. Under the Paris Agreement, many countries are also aiming to reduce their carbon emissions significantly as well; even the USA, under the new Biden administration, has rejoined the accord. But carbon neutral does not mean zero carbon. It means that the net carbon emissions of a company or of a country is zero. Emissions from one part of the pie can be offset by other parts of the pie, with the challenge being to excise the most polluting portions to make the overall goal of balancing emissions around the target easier. That, in energy terms, means moving away from dirtier power sources such as coal and oil, towards renewables such as solar and wind, as well as offsets such as carbon capture technology or carbon trading/pricing. Natural gas and LNG sit right in the middle of that spectrum: cleaner than conventional coal and oil, but still ubiquitous enough to be commercially viable.
So even in a carbon neutral world, there is a role for LNG to play. And crucially, demand is expected to continue rising. If ‘peak oil’ is now expected to be somewhere in the 2020s, then ‘peak gas’ is much further, post-2040s. In 2010, only 23 countries had access to LNG import facilities, led by Japan. In 2019, 43 countries now import LNG and that number will continue to rise as increased supply liquidity, cheaper pricing and infrastructural improvements take place. China will overtake Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer soon, while India just installed another 5 mmtpa import terminal in Hazira. More densely populated countries are hopping on the LNG bandwagon soon, the Philippines (108 million people), Vietnam (96 million people), to ensure a growing demand base for the fuel. Qatar’s central position in the world, sitting just between Europe and Asia, is a perfect base to service this growing demand.
There is competition, of course. Russia is increasingly moving to LNG as well, alongside its dominant position in piped natural gas. And there is the USA. By 2025, the USA should have 107 mmtpa of LNG capacity from currently sanctioned projects. That will be enough to make the USA the second-largest LNG exporter in the world, overtaking Australia. With a higher potential ceiling, the USA could also overtake Qatar eventually, since its capacity is driven by private enterprise rather than the controlled, centralised approach by Qatar Petroleum. The appearance of US LNG on the market has been a gamechanger; with lower costs, American LNG is highly competitive, having gone as far as Poland and China in a few short years. But while the average US LNG breakeven cost is estimated at around US$6.50-7.50/mmBtu, Qatar’s is even lower at US$4/mmBtu. Advantage: Qatar.
But there is still room for everyone in this growing LNG market. By 2030, global LNG demand is expected to grow to 580 million tons per annum, from a current 360 mmtpa. More LNG from Qatar is not just an opportunity, it is a necessity. Traditional LNG producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia are seeing waning volumes due to field maturity, but there is plenty of new capacity planned: in the USA, in Canada, in Egypt, in Israel, in Mozambique, and, of course, in Qatar. In that sense, it really doesn’t matter which country holds the crown of the world’s largest exporter, because LNG demand is a rising tide, and a rising tide lifts all 😊