Adrin Shafil

Petrofac Drilling and Completions Manager
Last Updated: September 6, 2017
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Career Development
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We've all met 'that' person. The person who has incredible self confidence, who articulate complex arguments with a silver tongue, who's words oozes in to well crafted verses of eloquence, who is gifted with the ability to capture attention, who is able to improvise on-point and witty answers to any left field queries, who exudes a personality that warms and rocks the audience to sway to a well timed beat. How are they able to exhibit such gravitas, think quick on their feet and appear so comfortable doing it?

In the business world, a meeting, a speech, a presentation, a discussion, or a negotiation, are all just examples of human congregations held either trying to share, negate or support information in order to reach a common understanding.

In order to influence that understanding, here are five tips to help you own a powerful, confident and charismatic presence, to command a room:

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To be Confident is to Appear Confident : Humans are visual creatures, and while they are listening to your words, they are judging those same words with your body language, mood and appearance. An upright posture is key, standing or seated. Deliver your points with gestures, timed intonation and strong eye contact. Even in disappointment, do not slouch, fidget and express anxiety. Your mood will either make or break your influence over the audience. Humour is often a quick go-to to appear at ease as well as win attention. However, serious arguments might require a calm and composed demeanour, with opportunities to exert dominance. Sometimes sudden changes in tone, changes in position (sitting to standing up) establishes an intangible hierarchy between you and the listener. Always own the self belief to position yourself as the expert of the matter, the one in the winning position to close a deal, but never lose your temper or appear pessimistic. Losing your temper just betrays your lack of ability to be in charge. Optimism is “the fuel of heroes, the enemy of despair, the creator of the future”.

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Dress to Impress : And avid TV drama can attest to the magnetism displayed in a mock courtroom, when the charming attorneys give their closing. Their arguments may be able to sway the jury of their peers, their delivery dazzling onlookers, but it is their dressing that positions them to win. With confident strides and wave of their hands, their dapper outfits immediately exerts a message, "Listen to me!". To use the same visual tool to assist you in an office, or in an external meeting with a client, or giving a speech to the public, always ask yourself, is what you’re wearing going to inspire confidence in your abilities? Think about your audience before you enter the room. What will they wear and how will you be compared to them. An easy rule to remember is to just have 'one extra piece'. If you are in an office meeting with all smart casual dress codes, wear a smart business attire (not sloppy or mismatched). If everybody there comes in with well pressed shirts/blouses, wear a tie. A jacket, well polished shoes, so on and so forth. Don't wedge a gap too much that might convey to the audience you are clueless and way out of reach. And don't be afraid to overdress a tad bit. You are there to be the focal of attention, so bring it. Dress to impress, stand out and deliver the message with authority.

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Light a Pathway with Story Telling : Often we mistake incessant rambling that dominates a conversation, as expertise. To convince an audience, we need to engage the audience. And to do that, we need to be a mesmerising and memorable story teller, that can mould complex information in to an interesting tale. Great stories have an origination, an escalation of conflict, and a resolution. Begin by introducing yourself and the task at hand with a hook, that signals the listener to pay attention. Your hook could be a question, a startling statement, an anecdote or a video. Next, bring forth your vision, and paint a vivid picture of what you want to achieve with colourful literary techniques to invigorate the imagination. Interest then is often easiest created by a sense of urgency and necessity. Let them feel the hunger and play with their curiosity, pace the reveal and harness their attention to your advantage. You can use modern business tools to assist your reveal, but to avoid your presentation/speech/discussion interfering with your discovery process, structure your text around your core messages and have supporting facts that enhances, and not muddy the waters. These facts can be illustrated in different ways, revisited and emphasised, but never overestimate their ability to create understanding. Your facts and visuals are just aids, seasoning to the recipe but the main ingredients of the story needs to emanate from you. The introduction must flow naturally to your vision, and progress to a sequence of data that is persuasive and finally a lighted path to deliver your climactic conclusion with flair and conviction.

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Do Your Homework : Prepare, practice, revise, rewrite, rehearse and restart if you need to. Do not scoff at notion of having the power of knowledge at your fingertips. Knowledge breeds confidence, and confidence breeds charisma. Your colleagues, counterparts or the audience does not need to know that you have toiled over your data, the likely points that they will bring up to counter your own, and the fact you have your text well rehearsed and down pat. Politicians are aided by speech writers, but they slave over the words and revise and rehearse and rewrite over and over again. Why shouldn't you? It may be enough to deliver an average presentation or engage in a normal conversation with what you already know, but the key is to know what you do not. Study the composition of the audience before hand, anticipate questions that might be asked, and write down the probable answers in your notes. A good speaker is able to survive on talent, but a great orator knows that blood sweat and tears must go into every word uttered.

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Make Them Believe : Believe in yourself, and the masses will follow. To convince, you are playing with the psychology of the listener who naturally is reluctant to depart from their own self beliefs. To entice them to come over to your side, you need to show how much you believe in yourself and your messages. You are going to have to come across to them as being trustworthy. The audience will see that you care about what you are spewing, but do you care about what they think? Are you going to be listening to them? While sometimes you will be delivering a monologue that does not allow immediate feedback, include supplementals that answers possible questions. What you need to be looking for is signs, both verbal and visual, that your audience is agreeing with you. With agreement, comes belief, and with belief comes a following.

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You don't have to be Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson to own an arena. While he electrifies the room even with just a wink, a raised eyebrow and a toothy smile, that amazing appeal is not merely a god-send without a path of his self improvement. Actors or performers learn their craft and spend years honing their abilities to portray the bewitchery that their profession requires. You can be that 'person' too, the confident and charismatic you, by keeping these five tips in mind the next time you need to make a great impression. Make sure you develop, practice and perfect your posture, appearance, delivery, preparation and wit, and soon you will have an audience orbiting around your words, as you command the room with ease, with a presence that signals warmth and self-belief.


Note: Adrin Shafil is an engineer, currently working as a Drilling Manager in Malaysia. He finds that writing is a great stress relief tool and he finds joy in sharing his insights online and answering any questions from graduates, mid-career colleagues and even fellow managers. If you like his articles, please click 'like', share the article on your profile and connect or follow his feed for more great information and tips.

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Your Weekly Update: 7 - 11 January 2019

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 7 January 2019 – Brent: US$57/b; WTI: US$49/b

  • Crude oil looks set to climb back to previous support levels as OPEC’s new supply deal kicks in and the US Federal Reserve sought to soothe investor confidence after initiating a surprise hike in interest rates that caused widespread global financial panic in December
  • Even as OPEC+ moves forwards with a planned 1.2 mmb/d cut in collective output, production across OPEC had already fallen over November and December as Saudi Arabia throttled production to support falling prices
  • Together with dwindling production in Venezuela, disruptions in Libya and losses in Iran, oil output from OPEC countries has already fallen by 530,000 b/d in December to 32.6 mmb/d, the sharpest pullback since January 2017
  • This has managed to re-assure the market that the global supply/demand balance is on firmer footing, even as Russian oil output reached a post-Soviet high of 11.16 mmb/d, just slightly off the all-time record of 11.42 mmb/d in 1987
  • With the recovery in prices, planned upstream projects will be back on firmer footing, with Rystad Energy expecting some US$123 billion of offshore projects to be sanctioned over 2019 if Brent crude averages US$60/b
  • Also supporting the upward momentum is the removal of 8 oil rigs from the active US rig count, as American drillers weighed up the risks of the fragile trajectory in WTI prices
  • Crude price outlook: Momentum is with crude oil prices this week, and we expect that to continue as OPEC+ implements its production plan, with Brent recovering to US$60-62/b and WTI to US$51-53/b


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Eni has acquired the remaining 70% of the Oooguruk field in Alaska from Caelus Natural Resources, bringing its stake to 100% to synergise with the nearby Nikaitchuq field, where Eni also owns a 100% interest interest
  • The deepwater Egina field in Nigeria, operated by Total through an FPSO, has started up production, with peak output expected at 200,000 b/d
  • Commercial production of crude at PAO Novatek/Gazprom’s Yaro-Yakhinskoye field has commenced, with output expected at 24,000 b/d
  • Total has sold a 2% interest in Oman’s Block 53 to Sweden’s Tethys Oil, bringing it into Occidental Petroleum’s 100,000 b/d Mukhaizna field
  • Brazil is preparing for its sixth round of upstream auctions, offering up pre-salt acreage in five areas expected to raise more than US$2 billion in sales
  • After recently making its 10th discovery in Guyana, ExxonMobil has its sights set on more as it drills two more exploration wells – Haimara-1 and Tilapia-1 – in the prolific Stabroek block, both close to existing discoveries
  • Ecuador is initiating a probe into some US$4.9 billion worth of oil-related infrastructure projects initiated by the previous administration on charges of corruption and looting

Downstream

  • China appears to be tempering crude demand, with the first batch of crude oil import quotas issued to state and private refineries at 26% lower than 2018, with quotas for teapots at some 78% of the 89.84 million tons approved
  • Saudi Aramco has acquired complete ownership of German specialty chemicals producers Lanxess AG by acquisition Dutch firm Arlanxeo’s 50% stake at €1.5 billion, strengthening its foray into petrochemicals
  • Iran will be investing some US$212 million into Chennai Petroleum’s 180 kb/d expansion of the Nagapatinam refinery on India’s east coast, as Iran looks for ways to ensure captive demand for its crude in one of its largest markets
  • The Mariner East 2 NGLs pipeline – transporting ethane, propane and butane over 560km to the Marcus Hook processing plant in Pennsylvania – has been completed, with the Mariner East 2X pipeline schedules for late 2019

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Shell’s 3.6 mtpa Prelude FLNG has finally started up initial production, the last of Australia’s giant natural gas projects to be completed
  • Brunei Shell Petroleum (BSP) has completed the onshore Darat Gas Project in Lumut, expanding LNG capacity in Brunei by 5% at the Rasau station
  • ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique will be aiming to sanction FID in 2019 for its first phase, involving two trains with a combined capacity of 7.6 million tpa from the offshore Area 4 block
  • As LNG developments in Papua New Guinea move quickly to commercialisation, the PNG government has passed new laws to impose a domestic gas requirement and other provisions for new gas projects, to ensure adequate supply of resources for growing local demand
January, 11 2019
The Prospects of Venezuelan Oil

At some point in 2019, crude production in Venezuela will dip below the 1 mmb/d level. It might already have occurred; estimated output was 1.15 mmb/d in November and the country’s downward trajectory for 2018 would put December numbers at about 1.06 mmb/d. Financial sanctions imposed on the country by the US, coupled with years of fiscal mismanagement have triggered an economic and humanitarian meltdown, where inflation has at times hit 1,400,000% and forced an abandonment of the ‘old’ bolivar for a ‘new bolivar’. PDVSA – once an oil industry crown jewel – has been hammered, from its cargoes being seized by ConocoPhillips for debts owed to the loss of the Curacao refinery and its prized Citgo refineries in the US.

The year 2019 will not see a repair of this chronic issue. Crude production in Venezuela will continue to slide. Once Latin America’s largest oil exporter – with peak production of 3.3 mmb/d and exports of 2.3 mmb/d in 1999 – it has now been eclipsed by Brazil and eventually tiny Guyana, where ExxonMobil has made massive discoveries. Even more pain is on the way, as the Trump administration prepares new sanctions as Nicolas Maduro begins his second term after a widely-derided election. But what is pain for Venezuela is gain for OPEC; the slack that its declining volumes provides makes it easier to maintain aggregate supply levels aimed at shoring up global oil prices.

It isn’t that Venezuela doesn’t want to increase – or at least maintain its production levels. It is that PDVSA isn’t capable of doing so alone, and has lost many deep-pocketed international ‘friends’ that were once instrumental to its success. The nationalisation of the oil industry in 2007 alienated supermajors like Chevron, Total and BP, and led to ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil suing the Venezuelan government. Arbitration in 2014 saw that amount reduced, but even that has not been paid; ConocoPhillips took the extraordinary step of seizing PDVSA cargoes at sea and its Caribbean assets in lieu of the US$2 billion arbitration award. Burnt by the legacies of Hugo Chavez and now Nicolas Maduro, these majors won’t be coming back – forcing Venezuela to turn to second-tier companies and foreign aid to extract more volumes. Last week, Venezuela signed an agreement with the newly-formed US-based Erepla Services to boost production at the Tia Juana, Rosa Mediano and Ayacucho 5 fields. In return, Erepla will receive half the oil produced – generous terms that still weren’t enough to entice service giants like Schlumberger and Halliburton.

Venezuela is also tapping into Russian, Chinese and Indian aid to boost output, essentially selling off key assets for necessary cash and expertise. This could be a temporary band-aid, but nothing more. Most of Venezuela’s oil reserves come from the extra-heavy reserves in the Orinoco Belt, where an estimated 1.2 trillion barrels lies. Extracting this will be extremely expensive and possibly commercially uneconomical  – given the refining industry’s move away from heavy grades to middle distillates. There are also very few refineries in the world that can process such heavy crude, and Venezuela is in no position to make additional demands from them. In a world where PDVSA has fewer and fewer friends, recovery will be extremely tough and extremely far-off.  

Infographic: Venezuelan crude production:

  • 2015: 2.7 mmb/d (output), 1.9 mmb/d (exports)
  • 2016: 2.6 mmb/d (output), 1.8 mmb/d (exports)
  • 2017: 2.1 mmb/d (output), 1.5 mmb/d (exports)
  • 2018: 1.3 mmb/d (output), 1.2 mmb/d (exports)
  • November 2018: 1.15 mmb/d (output), 1.05 mmb/d (exports)
January, 10 2019
Your Weekly Update: 31 December 2018 - 4 January 2019

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 31 December 2018 – Brent: US$54/b; WTI: US$46/b

  • Crude oil will start 2019 on a stronger note after being routed last month over concerns that surging American production will swamp OPEC’s supply efforts and a global financial panic triggered by US trade policies and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve
  • OPEC is continuing to re-iterate that it will play a strong role in managing global oil supply and demand, but there are worries that it may have to switch tactics to deal with the non-stop rise in US shale volumes
  • Concerns over the health of the global economy are also on the minds of traders, with signs that the Chinese economy is slowing down as the country’s manufacturing index has begun to contract
  • Suppression of demand growth could cap the ability for crude oil to rise up to the predicted average of US$70/b for the year, making supply management all the more important with Saudi Arabia pledging ‘deeper cuts’
  • American drillers added 3 new rigs in total heading into the new year, underscoring the continuous upward trajectory for US oil production – with signs pointing to the 12 mmb/d mark likely to be hit by mid-2019
  • Crude price outlook: The market should stabilise itself at US$54-55/b for Brent and US$46-47/b for WTI, with traders watching for signs over the implementation of OPEC+’s new supply deal

 

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • BP is aiming to sanction development of the Platina field in Angola’s deepwater Block 18 in 1H2019, which would be the supermajor’s first new development in the country since 2013, following an extension of Greater Plutonio to 2032
  • Shell has completed the sale of its New Zealand upstream assets – including the Māui, Pohokura and Tank Farm entities – to Austria’s OMV for US$578 million
  • Eni UK has begun drilling in Rowallan well in the Central North Sea with Serica Energy, targeting condensate-rich volumes in well 22/19c-G
  • In South Africa, Total has begun drilling the Brulpadda-1AX well in offshore Block 11B/12B, with prospective resources of 500 million barrels of crude
  • Equinor has completed the sale of two assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, selling a 77.8% stake in King Lear to Aker BP for US$250 million as well as a 42.38% stake in Tommeliten Unit and 30% in PL044 to Poland’s PGNiG for US$220 million
  • Commercial crude production at the SARB and Umm Lulu fields in Abu Dhabi has begun, with Cepsa offering first crude from the sites last month

Downstream

  • Saudi Aramco has established the Saudi Aramco Retail Company (RetailCo), a new subsidiary focus on fuel retailing in the Kingdom as part of its plan to expand its business further downstream
  • After starting up official commercial production last month, Vietnam’s Nghi Son refinery has offered up its first cargo of jet fuel, joining the site’s existing slate of gasoline and gasoil volumes
  • BP and SOCAR have signed an agreement for a new petrochemicals joint venture in Turkey, with the proposed site in Aliaga aiming to have a capacity of 1.25 mtpa of PTA, 840,000 tpa of paraxylene and 340,000 tpa of benzene
  • Total and Angola’s Sonangol are extending their partnership downstream, forming a joint venture to focus on fuel and lubricants distribution and sales in Angola, as well as developing a new fuel retail network

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Australia’s Woodside Petroleum has inked a new mid-term deal with German utility RWE supplying LNG from the Corpus Christi LNG project in Texas from 4Q2020 to 4Q2022 – an extension of the 12 cargo, 2-year contract signed between both parties last year
  • Gazprom and Itochu have signed an MoU to cooperate on the proposed Baltic LNG export project, a 10 mtpa liquefaction plant planned in Leningrad
  • Eni has received permission from the Indonesian government to fast-track the Merakes Development Project in Kalimantan’s Kutei Basin, aimed at delivering additional volumes to the Bontang LNG plant
  • Indonesia is reviewing Inpex’s revised development plan for the Abadi LNG project as the Japanese firm has reportedly identified a small island in South Tanimbar as the location for the plant
January, 03 2019