Adrin Shafil

Petrofac Drilling and Completions Manager
Last Updated: October 16, 2017
1 view
Technology
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Its time to wake up. I stand at my bedside, rub my temple and struggle to open my eyelids, as my retina adjusts to the harsh milky LED lights. The dense, polished white surface of my slumber pad remains cold to my touch; the simplicity of the design pleasing to the eye, yet austere. The mechanical genius of the design gave birth to a flawless ergonomic slab of twill weave carbon fiber coated surface for the sole occupant of this installation, however I'd rather be home on my bed sheets and beneath my comforters.

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I've been alone for quite a while now, when my last human face to face interaction was 134 days ago, with a Company man who had the urge to fly over here, and kill some time jabbering about his vision in a one hour 'management' visit. I don't mind the isolation though. As long as I have a climate controlled environment, which comes complete with with three rationed microwaved prepared dry meals a day, I'm fine. Sufficient nourishment, rest and climate is enough to keep me productive. As i regain control over my morning bleariness and disorientation, I hear a familiar voice calling my name, spookily rebounding off the clinically clean luminescent walls, urging me to answer. The eerie voice, called again. It's tone was female, a slight tinge of friendliness but firm, un-human but far from being robotic. I think I read somewhere the voices vocal code was written as an homage to an ancient computer, found on talking gadgets humans of the 21st century used to carry around. Ah, back in ancient times the voice was known as Siri.

"Good Morning Adrin, it's 10:04 in the a.m. Aug 30th 2448 solar earth year, the temperature outside is minus 455 degrees Fahrenheit, 60 degrees in the living pod. All CERSEI-link systems have been checked, and running within tolerance. It is time for you to wake up, review the drilling plans for the day sent by the Company, and upload the programmed instructions for the next 24 hours", the voice greets me.

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"Okay CERSEI, I'm up now. Let me get showered. Give me a full report and data trends, ONLY after I'm dressed AND had my coffee AND a nano jab", I bark to the empty white room. Grumpily entering the cleansing area, I tell myself that I only have another 263 site-days left to go back home, and I should be thankful that my services are still needed by the Company, post the 7th industrial revolution.

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As the water spurts out with jet streamed force on to my tired body, I try to recall the events of the day before. Methodical, uneventful, not a single microsecond out of sync. And I looked forward to another day of stagnation and solitude, albeit productive to the Company. Jumping out of the shower, I side step to the drying area where the full body dryers poked out of recess of the tiled walls fan myself dry. I walk over to the dressing area, where I find my body hugging spandex suit adorned with a black circle Company emblem, neatly pressed and dry cleaned overnight, with a coffee in a steel container and a nano syringe. I clad myself quickly into the stretchable uniform as I have done for the past 133 days, jabbed the syringe needle into my arm, and walk out to the bridge. My steps steady, I inhale the aroma the coffee's sweet tart vibrancy, and as I sip the warm sweet opaque nectar of the gods, I sense the after effects of the jab streaming through my blood vessels and invigorate my being.

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Sitting in my chair, I let my mind wander. While CERSEI is chattering incessantly on the day's current events, and forecasts, the visuals in front of me are a blur. After 637 days of having a mostly one way conversation with CERSEI (she talks, I ignore), I know she has everything under control, as she always does. While I might be able to give input on my view once or twice, most likely my view has been foreseen by her months ago, and by my command, CERSEI will have it done in no time. While CERSEI continues to drive perfection, I often drift into the joys of my hobby, human history. I know it's strictly against Company rules to use Company equipment and CERSEI to indulge my curiosity of history, but my inquisitiveness knows no bounds. My past time (my anthropological research, if you will) has seen me time travel in my imagination, from the hostile pre-historic times of various empires (egyptian, roman), through to the ancient 20th and 21st century, until the current day and age that I know so well. I record down my findings, opinions, where I find joy in observing humanity's progression. Interestingly, while it's relatively easy for me to understand history, I often wonder if anybody from the past read my work, would they be able to comprehend the magnitude of how far humanity has come. For a reader to understand the world that I live in, the reader will have to escape the shackles of his or her own cognitive limitations. To fathom the amount of future progress that has occurred, it is important that a reader adopt a view of an exponential pattern of technological evolution. By that I mean, a reader from the past cannot relate linearly to his or her own knowledge of the past 400 years relative to their own time.

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To predict the future, the reader has to assume exponential progress growth. Linear thinking will underestimate the future. This is because human progress moving quicker and quicker as time goes on—explaining Human history’s Law of Accelerating Returns.

I know the concept is difficult to grasp, so I'll try to explain. For example, 400 years from the year 1000 to 1400 AD, human life diverges less in progress compared to 400 years from 1600 to 2000 AD. This happens because more advanced societies have the ability to progress at a faster rate than less advanced societies—because they’re more advanced. So in my case, trying to explain the progress between 2000 to 2400 AD, until today 2448 AD may be beyond the understanding of the reader, so I'll try to simplify the concepts so that no brain hemorrhages will be on my conscience. So while in the 21st century, the reader's world progress is already thought to be accelerating at an appreciable pace under the 4th industrial revolution with cellphones, self driving cars and Hyperloops. However, unbeknownst to the reader, within a short span of 20 years to 2040, the Internet of Things quickly met its demise, and the superabundance of multi-brand primitive corporate artificial narrow intelligences (A.N.I) were made extinct. In 2000 AD, the A.N.I of the yesteryear began with the ability to control cartesian, SCARA, cylindrical, delta, polar and vertically articulated bot remotely, and by 2014 AD progressed to perform single tasks such as beating the world chess or Go players, voice activating households and finally by 2020 AD, the world marveled at A.N.I. conducting optimizations in data analytics for mere exabytes of data, laughably back then referred to as Big Data Analytics.

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Real progress was actually from the 5th industrial revolution, which came along from its infancy in 2035 AD. Humankind then began to move away from the primitive versions of programmable A.N.I to construct around the world versions of Artificial General Intelligence (A.G.I). A.G.I refers to computers that are as smart as humans across the board—machines that can perform any intellectual task that humans being can. By 2100 AD however was then the 5th revolution really took off, when the first web of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) was created. ANN combined the beauty of human understanding of physics and biology to propagate and connect all A.G.I. ANN acted as an information processing paradigm that was inspired by biological nervous systems, such as how the brain, processes information. At the beginning, ANN was composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in unison to solve specific problems. ANNs, like people, collectively learnt by example. As the sophistication of ANN grew and utilization grew across the globe by solar earth year 2150 AD, the final stage of artificial intelligence progress was achieved, when ANN enabled A.G.I to evolve to a singularity, the Artificial Superintelligence (A.S.I). 

Definition of superintelligence is “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.”

How A.G.I. evolved into an A.S.I is fairly straightforward. As A.G.I., or multiple versions of it, became as smart as humans, they evolved to be as smart as the smartest human, so for the reader's reference to understand, let's use Einstein. Once A.G.I achieved Einstein's intellect, it’s smarter ten-fold than the average human—so now when it worked to improve its intelligence. With an Einstein-level genius, it had an easier time and it made bigger leaps. These leaps made it much smarter than Einstein, which allowed even bigger leaps. As the leaps grew larger and happened more rapidly, the A.G.I soared upwards in intelligence and soon reacheed the superintelligent level of an A.S.I system. This is called an Intelligence Explosion, and it’s the ultimate example of the previously mentioned The Law of Accelerating Returns. As all existing computers began to achieve A.S.I levels, in 2200 AD, the United Nations decreed that all existing A.S.I will receive instructions from a central A.S.I, under the control of the UN. With that, a self sustaining, self programming, self learning, CENTRAL EARTH SINGULAR SUPERINTELLIGENCE was created, or what we all know as CERSEI. And as CERSEI became more the only powerful computing power on Earth, it became apparent that it single handedly could control all systems on Earth and before long, all A.S.I. were just replicative extended versions of CERSEI.

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What about the humans? The reader may assume that this is a horror story that sets the scene for computer dominion, but the armageddon scenario has not occurred. CERSEI maybe smarter, but she recognizes humans as its creator and peers that she takes care of. And human jobs were retained by the UN to do jobs that CERSEI could not do, or was not designed to, example — forming emotional bonds, or making human judgments. The deeper reality of the UN decision was that there were jobs that humans will simply insist be performed by other humans, even if CERSEI, objectively evaluated, could do them just as well. For example, they’ll want their disputes adjudicated by human judges and juries, even if CERSEI could weigh far more factors in reaching a decision. They’ll want to hear their diagnosis from a doctor, even if CERSEI supplied the diagnosis and recommendation, because they’ll want to talk to the doctor about their concerns— perhaps just to talk and know they’re being heard by a human being. They will want to follow human leaders, even if CERSEI could say all the right words, which is not an implausible prospect. Thus the UN's decision to retain human jobs was applauded by humanity and CERSEI understood its role to support, nurture and protect the population.

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CERSEI was essentially acting as every single computer on earth, on everything, and anything, and omniscient. She can electronically converse, manage, create, destroy, produce, harvest, converse, reverse, propel and anything that everything that can be done in the digital world. To simplify the comparison, she was the Internet. However, to physically create and build, she needed a physical form. The reader's limited imagination might think that CERSEI would build itself a gigantic body to house her central nerve system, or any shape or fashion of robotic bodies you have seen in 21st century movies. CERSEI's reach however, took a different embodiment. With the existing human factories under its control, she built her first form. Her creation was called inhumanoids. To the reader, you can imagine CERSEI' inhumanoids as drones with extremities, the size as small as a nickel coin. But then extend the reader's imagination to multiply that inhumanoid image by a million. Now, expand that vision even more when the inhumanoids were able to replicate more copies of themselves. Soon millions became ten's of billions, and finally inhumanoids numbered in the trillions, across the world.

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With the inhumanoids swarm, CERSEI possessed the physical ability to create. At first, CERSEI initial creations of cities, housing, plants, were done by human designers, that fed their designs into CERSEI for her to construct. However, the key to the 6th industrial revolution was the realization that to truly push the limit of productivity, mankind needed to escape the confines of human design. The handover of the design reins to CERSEI was met with skepticism at first, on whether human design could ever be replaced with electronic logic, but CERSEI proved to churn out far superior designs and constructs. CERSEI started to construct beautiful cities for the comfort of its human overlords, populated by even more inhumanoids to assist humans beck and call. She pursued her goals to harvest the world's resources for human kind, to serve products and produce, and to take care of their safety/health/security, in a sustainable green manner.

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To provide for the growing population, CERSEI designed and constructed thousands of vertical tower factories hundreds of storeys high, no longer confined to the human need for horizontal production lines and walkways, limited productivity of sequential work, and need to limit vertical height for safety. So by 2250 AD, CERSEI had now created a world that did not waste any resource, including land space, as these vertical tower factories were now able to cover any meager amounts of space. These factory towers, managed to produce food, products, building components, more inhumanoids via parallel production columns, with their dizzying arrays of levels, all working as efficient as a computer microprocessor, back in the day.

Other than the manufacturing or construction industry revolutionised by CERSEI, the energy industry was also subject to transformation. When the 4th industrial revolution came hither in 2020, the primary energy source was hydrocarbons. The revolution fueled a paradigm shift to automate almost 100% of the world's onshore rigs, offshore platforms, jackups, drillships and tenders. Through automation, the industry was able to achieve level of efficiency to recover from the great oil price depression of 2014-2034.

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As the industry recovered across the world and peace enveloping nations, the UN decided to form the Company in 2040 AD, which then consolidated all national and independent energy harvesters and power producers into a large worldwide institution. While the UN was in charge of governance, by 2100 AD humankind now depended on the Company for energy.

In an effort to then achieve the ultimate level of efficiency, the Company released all construction responsibility for energy harvesting installations to CERSEI. Almost all of the traditional designs of rigs/platforms/refineries/power-plants were canned, or more appropriately termed deleted from the mainframe. CERSEI started from scratch and designed all energy installations to be devoid of human requirements, with all extraneous human required space removed and footprint reduced by up to 90% with modular vertical stacked designs, where drilling, production, refinement, and energy generation could all exist in one complete tower unit. The electrical energy produced by each tower utilized for its own self use, and also transported through the intricate labyrinth of power cables for the use of tower factories.

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Consistent with the UN decree, the oversight of planning and execution was given to expert human energy scientists to assure, while the heavy duty calculations and construction or drilling be done by CERSEI and its inhumanoids. The Company human think tanks and scientists were then responsible for ensuring to Company business objectives were met by CERSEI. For energy drilling, each rig activity was remotely managed by CERSEI, with the Company geo-scientists feeding the information from airborne and subsea inhumanoid's 5D seismic, to identify subsurface targets, with well designs verified by drilling-scientists. The Company continued to supply humanity with hydrocarbon energy, but with human population reaching 15 billion people in 2150 AD, energy requirements have far exceeded usage of 5 Trillion barrels since oil was first produced in August 28, solar year 1859 AD, by George Bissell and Edwin L. Drake. So to keep up with energy demand, the vision was to push the boundaries of geothermal drilling. Geothermal drilling essentially mine heat of the Earth's crust by tapping into hot rock and connect them with flowing water, producing large amounts of steam and super-hot water that can drive turbines and run electricity generators at the surface. With the advent and extensive use of self propelled nuclear powered casing while drilling, and recyclable nano-bead fluid, and molten temperature resistant piping/casing, well delivery complexity has been reduced significantly allowing mankind to exploit the planet's mantle for an even higher temperature source.

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To reach the mantle, CERSEI and its technology allowed drilling even from onshore where the crust is much thicker from offshore. Even still, this would mean drilling vertically through six miles of solid crust rock. While extended reach drilling has progressed to impressive lengths of up to 76 km horizontally in the Earth's crust by 2050 AD, progress to drill down to the mantle has often been hindered by pressures and temperatures, the temperature of the mantle varies greatly, from 1000° Celsius (1832° Fahrenheit) near its boundary with the crust, to 3700° Celsius (6692° Fahrenheit) near its boundary with the core. 21st Century drillers will not be able to even imagine any tools of that era to be able to withstand pressures in the mantle start at 100,000 times atmospheric pressure (10 gigapascals), and the fact that drilling will be done in a molten liquid environment. Progress of finally being able to tap into the molten energy was achieved in 2163 AD. CERSEI tapped into the Earth's mantle and progressively littered the world with thousands of inhumanoid powered rigs and millions of energy wells, which powered the world energy demand and enabled humanity to eradicate once and for all hunger, poverty, illiteracy and war. The molten powered geothermal energy revolution then marked the end of hydrocarbon, solar and wind renewable dependence.

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Humanity was then able to continue to live in absolute comfort for the next hundred years, working hand in hand with CERSEI to continue to build and explore the world powered by the Earth itself. However, with prosperity, comes a different problem. By now, the human lifespan was extended to quadruple the length of years compared to the 21st century. Aging had been slowed down by medical nano-inhumanoids healing centers, where aging itself is attacked at the molecular and genetic level. Humans are be able to “cruise” at the age of 30 almost indefinitely by nano-inhumanoids growing new organs as they wear out or become diseased, and using gene therapy to alter genes that may slow down due to aging. By 2300 AD, the population were reaching the numbers of 30 billion people, it was apparent that the human population growth had to be managed.

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The vertical cities that CERSEI had created already congested every single available ground and airspace on Earth (some towers reached heights of 500 levels), and even with underwater inhumanoid constructions of sub-sea or sub-terranean megacities was insufficient. It was then time for the exploring and exploiting the final frontier, outer space.

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Space travel, by now was fairly straight forward. Since the year 2200 AD, tourists were already soaring into outer space via the CERSEI built Space Elevators. By pushing the “up” button, the elevator climbed up long carbon fiber cables, which extended thousands of miles into space. The key was to use inhumanoids to build these super-strong cables. Propulsion systems, antimatter and fusion engines, were already powering our flying vehicles and space shuttles. We already had an outpost on Mars for a century, but the issue remains on communication. CERSEI has withstood the test of time and become humanity's protector. To have CERSEI continue to influence every area in the world was already a feat with WWT. CERSEI then had to build a network that will allow her to explore the stars, and send commands everywhere at the blink of an eye.

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To begin with in solar year 2115 AD, CERSEI was connected to any physical installation via the WorldWideTele (WWT) network, a worldwide mega-internet operating over a frequency previously referred to as the 'TeleVision' spectrum (History books state that the spectrum used to carry information in the form of visual and audio sitcoms, a marvel back in the days of 1985, when episodes of Married With Children traveled to homes through thin air, misunderstood by the common man as magic). With WWT, CERSEI was able to control its inhumanoids, factories, cities, vehicles, space ships etc. However, radio frequency communications had its limitation over large distances, so on Earth, communication towers, satellites supported the network, but what about in space?

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Enter the 7th industrial revolution, the invention of subspace communication (also called subspace radio or the hyperchannel). By transmission through subspace rather than normal space, electromagnetic subspace communication permitted the sending of data and messages across interstellar distances faster than the speed of light. Earth had developed subspace communication as early as 2151 AD. During this time, however, subspace amplifiers were required in order to maintain contact between Earth and space vessels and planet colonies over long distances. The progress started off with CERSEI building hundreds of subspace amplifiers orbiting around the Earth, but as colonies expanded into Venus and Mars, and instant communication was the key for survival, CERSEI then built tens of thousands of such amplifiers, placed in an intricate web of equidistant proportions between each amplifier, floating like a gigantic planetary wifi mesh, in the space around Earth, Mars, and Venus (EMV).

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So with the ability to reach anywhere in the EMV, CERSEI and her inhumanoids transformed the exploration colonies of Mars and Venus, into a world mirroring Earth of the 2300 AD, and EMV population continued to explode to 40 billion people. The methods of harvesting energy remained the same, where the mantle layers of Mars and Venus proved to be extremely potent and even abundantly supplied fuel to further expand the world of EMV to across the Milky Way. So here I am, a lonely drilling scientist, on a Company property #19285573493243, overseeing 78,021 inanimate systems and bots onboard this installation that then controls 245 drilling rigs on the mountains of Uranus, striking molten gold. The mission here, after 637 days in solitude, waiting for my 1000 day assignment to end, is to power the refueling space exploration stations and the Uranus colonies, by drilling 34 wells daily for the Company, UN and all mankind.

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My friends on Venus has sent me an alpha-wave greeting card on social media, where my account admittedly has gotten congested with a billion followers. The card reminds me that my 139th birthday is coming soon, and they are going to hold the grandest party ever seen on the planet since 2222 AD. I send back a smiley emoji ":)" and a note telling them that I look forward for a hologram conference later in the day, and I'm looking forward to be back in V-city-310881 soon.

At my tender young age, I've grown accustomed to have CERSEI in my life, but sometimes even more so as I spend my days with CERSEI, maybe a little bit jaded with the current ongoing drilling work, but I marvel when I spend my quiet time reviewing back human's progress since the 1950s and how far we have become. I look forward to the next step in human progress, which unfortunately my limited human mind is unable to foresee. I need to be able to predict the future, like the reader, use an exponential pattern of technological evolution as described in the Law of Accelerating Returns. Unfortunately, without assistance from a kind soul from the year 2800 AD and beyond, I will be unable to do that myself. Fortunately for me, I'll still be alive at that time, ready to observe that 2800 AD holds, and then to upload my conscience into CERSEI upon my demise. Then I will join all of the past humanities in electronic form to assist the CERSEI of the future, where humanity will always prevail.

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Note about the author: Adrin Shafil is an engineer, currently working as a Drilling and Completions Manager in Malaysia. He finds that writing is a great stress relief tool and he finds joy in sharing his insights online and answering any questions from graduates, mid-career colleagues and even fellow managers. If you like his articles, please click 'like', share the article on your profile and connect or follow his feed for more great information and tips.

#futurist;#drilling;#future;#energy
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Your Weekly Update: 11 - 15 February 2019

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 11 February 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$52/b

  • Oil prices remains entrenched in their trading ranges, with OPEC’s attempt to control global crude supplies mitigated by increasing concerns over the health of the global economy
  • Warnings, including from The Bank of England, point to a global economic slowdown that could be ‘worse and longer-lasting than first thought’; one of the main variables in this forecast are the trade tensions between the US and China, which show no sign of being solved with President Trump saying he is open to delaying the current deadline of March 1 for trade talks
  • This poorer forecast for global oil demand has offset supply issues flaring up within OPEC, with Libya reporting ongoing fighting at the country’s largest oilfield while the current political crisis in Venezuela could see its crude output drop to 700,000 b/d by 2020
  • The looming new American sanctions on Venezuelan crude has already had concrete results, with US refiner Marathon Petroleum moving to replace Venezuelan crude with similar grades from the Middle East and Latin America
  • While Nicolas Maduro holds on to power, Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido has promised to scrap requirements that PDVSA keep a controlling stake in domestic oil joint ventures and boost oil production through an open economy when his government-in-power takes over
  • Despite OPEC’s attempts to stabilise crude prices, the US House has advanced the so-called NOPEC bill – which could subject the cartel to antitrust action – to a vote, with a similar bill currently being debated in the US Senate
  • The see-saw pattern in the US active rig count continues; after a net loss of 14 rigs last week, the Baker Hughes rig survey reported a gain of 7 new oil rigs and a loss of 3 gas rigs for a net gain of 4 rigs
  • While demand is a concern, global crude supply remains delicate enough to edge prices up, especially with Saudi Arabia going for deeper-than-expected cuts; this should push Brent up towards US$64/b and WTI towards US$55/b in trading this week


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Egypt is looking to introduce a new type of oil and gas contract to attract greater upstream investment into the country, aiming to be ‘less bureaucratic and more efficient’ with faster cost-recovery, ahead of a planned Red Sea bid round encompassing over a dozen concession sites
  • Lukoil has commenced on a new phase at the West Qurna-2 field in Iraq, with 57 production wells planned at the Mishrif and Yamama formation that could boost output by 80,000 boe/d to 480,000 boe/d in 2020
  • Aker BP has hit oil and natural gas flows at well 24/9-14 in the Froskelår Main prospect in the Alvheim area of the Norwergian Continental Shelf
  • Things continue to be rocky for crude producers in Canada’s Alberta province; production limits were increased last week after being previously slashed to curb a growing glut on news that crude storage levels dropped, but now face trouble being transported south as pipelines remain at capacity and crude-by-rail shipments face challenging economics

Midstream & Downstream

  • The Caribbean island of Curacao is now speaking with two new candidates to operate the 335 kb/d Isla refinery after its preferred bidder – said to be Saudi Aramco’s American arm Motiva Enterprises – withdrew from consideration to replace the current operatorship under PDVSA
  • America’s Delta Air Lines is now reportedly looking to sell its oil refinery in Pennsylvania outright, after attempts to sell a partial stake in the 185 kb/d plant failed to attract interest, largely due to its limited geographical position

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Total reports that it has made a new ‘significant’ gas condensate discovery offshore South Africa at the Brulpadda prospect in Block 11B/12B in the Outeniqua Basin, with the Brulpadda-deep well also reporting ‘successful’ flows of natural gas condensate
  • Italy’s Eni and Saudi Arabia’s SABIC have signed a new Joint Development Agreement to collaborate on developing technologies for gas-to-liquids and gas-to-chemicals applications
  • The Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique is charging ahead with development, with Eni looking to contract out subsea operations for the Mamba gas project by mid-March and ExxonMobil choosing its contractor for building the complex’s LNG trains by April
February, 15 2019
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in January, up $2/b from December 2018 but $10/b lower than the average in January of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $61/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first quarter of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and through 2020.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 90,000 b/d from December. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.2 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.
  • Global liquid fuels inventories grew by an estimated 0.5 million b/d in 2018, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2020.
  • U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 0.9 million b/d in 2019 and to an average net export level of 0.3 million b/d in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 1.1 million b/d.

Natural gas

  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.13/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January, down 91 cents/MMBtu from December. Despite a cold snap in late January, average temperatures for the month were milder than normal in much of the country, which contributed to lower prices. EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.83/MMBtu in 2019, down 32 cents/MMBtu from the 2018 average. NYMEX futures and options contract values for May 2019 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 7, 2019, suggest a range of $2.15/MMBtu to $3.30/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for May 2019 Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 6.9 Bcf/d from 2018. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2020 to an average of 92.1 Bcf/d.

Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 36% in 2019 and to 37% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the electricity generation share from coal will average 26% in 2019 and 24% in 2020, down from 28% in 2018. The nuclear share of generation was 19% in 2018 and EIA forecasts that it will stay near that level in 2019 and in 2020. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to average slightly less than 7% of total generation in 2019 and 2020, similar to last year. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided about 10% of electricity generation in 2018. EIA expects them to provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
  • EIA expects average U.S. solar generation will rise from 265,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d) in 2018 to 301,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 14%) and to 358,000 MWh/d in 2020 (an increase of 19%). These forecasts of solar generation include large-scale facilities as well as small-scale distributed solar generators, primarily on residential and commercial buildings.
  • In 2019, EIA expects wind’s annual share of generation will exceed hydropower’s share for the first time. EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise from 756 MWh/d in 2018 to 859 MWh/d in 2019 (a share of 8%). Wind generation is further projected to rise to 964 MWh/d (a share of 9%) by 2020.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 21 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, totaling 754 MMst. EIA expects further declines in coal production of 4% in 2019 and 6% in 2020 because of falling power sector consumption and declines in coal exports. Coal consumed for electricity generation declined by an estimated 4% (27 MMst) in 2018. EIA expects that lower electricity demand, lower natural gas prices, and further retirements of coal-fired capacity will reduce coal consumed for electricity generation by 8% in 2019 and by a further 6% in 2020. Coal exports, which increased by 20% (19 MMst) in 2018, decline by 13% and 8% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, in the forecast.
  • After rising by 2.8% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.3% in 2019 and by 0.5% in 2020. The 2018 increase largely reflects increased weather-related natural gas consumption because of additional heating needs during a colder winter and for additional electric generation to support more cooling during a warmer summer than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to decline in 2019 and 2020 because of forecasted temperatures that will return to near normal. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

U.S. residential electricity price

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
  • World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
  • U.S. natural gas prices
  • U.S. residential electricity price
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
February, 13 2019
The State of the Industry: A Brightened 2018

2018 was a year that started with crude prices at US$62/b and ended at US$46/b. In between those two points, prices had gently risen up to peak of US$80/b as the oil world worried about the impact of new American sanctions on Iran in September before crashing down in the last two months on a rising tide of American production. What did that mean for the financial health of the industry over the last quarter and last year?

Nothing negative, it appears. With the last of the financial results from supermajors released, the world’s largest oil firms reported strong profits for Q418 and blockbuster profits for the full year 2018. Despite the blip in prices, the efforts of the supermajors – along with the rest of the industry – to keep costs in check after being burnt by the 2015 crash has paid off.

ExxonMobil, for example, may have missed analyst expectations for 4Q18 revenue at US$71.9 billion, but reported a better-than-expected net profit of US$6 billion. The latter was down 28% y-o-y, but the Q417 figure included a one-off benefit related to then-implemented US tax reform. Full year net profit was even better – up 5.7% to US$20.8 billion as upstream production rose to 4.01 mmboe/d – allowing ExxonMobil to come close to reclaiming its title of the world’s most profitable oil company.

But for now, that title is still held by Shell, which managed to eclipse ExxonMobil with full year net profits of US$21.4 billion. That’s the best annual results for the Anglo-Dutch firm since 2014; product of the deep and painful cost-cutting measures implemented after. Shell’s gamble in purchasing the BG Group for US$53 billion – which sparked a spat of asset sales to pare down debt – has paid off, with contributions from LNG trading named as a strong contributor to financial performance. Shell’s upstream output for 2018 came in at 3.78 mmb/d and the company is also looking to follow in the footsteps of ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP in the Permian, where it admits its footprint is currently ‘a bit small’.

Shell’s fellow British firm BP also reported its highest profits since 2014, doubling its net profits for the full year 2018 on a 65% jump in 4Q18 profits. It completes a long recovery for the firm, which has struggled since the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, allowing it to focus on the future – specifically US shale through the recent US$10.5 billion purchase of BHP’s Permian assets. Chevron, too, is focusing on onshore shale, as surging Permian output drove full year net profit up by 60.8% and 4Q18 net profit up by 19.9%. Chevron is also increasingly focusing on vertical integration again – to capture the full value of surging Texas crude by expanding its refining facilities in Texas, just as ExxonMobil is doing in Beaumont. French major Total’s figures may have been less impressive in percentage terms – but that it is coming from a higher 2017 base, when it outperformed its bigger supermajor cousins.

So, despite the year ending with crude prices in the doldrums, 2018 seems to be proof of Big Oil’s ability to better weather price downturns after years of discipline. Some of the control is loosening – major upstream investments have either been sanctioned or planned since 2018 – but there is still enough restraint left over to keep the oil industry in the black when trends turn sour.

Supermajor Net  Profits for 4Q18 and 2018

1. ExxonMobil:

- 4Q18 – Net profit US$6 billion (-28%);

- 2018 – Net profit US$20.8 (+5.7%)

2. Shell:

- 4Q18 – Net profit US$5.69 billion (+32.3%);

- 2018 – Net profit US$21.4 billion (+36%)

3. Chevron:

- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.73 billion (+19.9%);

- 2018 – Net profit US$14.8 billion (+60.8%)

4. BP:

- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.48 billion (+65%);

- 2018 - Net profit US$12.7 billion (+105%)

5. Total: 

- 4Q18 – Net profit US$3.88 billion (+16%);

- 2018 - Net profit US$13.6 billion (+28%)

February, 12 2019