Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017
Global natural gas consumption is expected to grow from 340 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015 to 485 Bcf/d by 2040, primarily in countries in Asia and in the Middle East, based on projections in EIA’s latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). China accounts for more than a quarter of all global natural gas consumption growth between 2015 and 2040.
The projected growth in natural gas consumption in China is driven by environmental policies, relative cost competiveness of natural gas in the industrial and transportation sectors, and relatively high economic growth.
China’s environmental policies are designed to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions by promoting natural gas in the country’s energy mix—replacing some coal and oil use with natural gas. In China’s 13th Five-Year Plan and the latest Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-30), the Chinese government set targets to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix from 5.9% in 2015 to 10% by 2020 and 15% by 2030.
EIA projects China’s natural gas consumption to grow from 19 Bcf/d in 2015 to 57 Bcf/d in 2040, surpassing all other countries except the United States. In the IEO2017 Reference case, U.S. natural gas consumption is projected to grow at a more modest rate, from 75 Bcf/d in 2015 to 88 Bcf/d in 2040, with the United States remaining the world’s largest natural gas consumer.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017, China Development and Reform Commission, China Customs
China’s domestic natural gas production reached 13 Bcf/d in 2016, accounting for 64% of China’s total natural gas supply. The IEO2017 Reference Case projects that China’s domestic natural gas production will reach 39 Bcf/d by 2040, driven primarily by the development of shale gas resources. EIA estimates that China holds the largest reserves of technically recoverable shale gas in the world, and China was among the first countries outside of North America to develop its shale resources.
The IEO2017 Reference case projects China’s shale gas production will grow from 0.7 Bcf/d in 2016 to 10 Bcf/d by 2030 and 19 Bcf/d by 2040, when shale gas is projected to account for a third of China’s total natural gas supply. China’s natural gas production from other sources, such as coalbed methane, tight formations, and more traditional natural gas reservoirs, is projected to increase more modestly, from 12 Bcf/d from these sources in 2016 to 20 Bcf/d by 2040.
Pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports make up the rest of China’s supply, collectively accounting for 36% of the 2016 total and projected to account for 32% of the 2040 total. China’s LNG imports tripled between 2010 and 2016, reaching 3.5 Bcf/d (17% of total supply) in 2016. By 2018, China is projected to surpass South Korea as the world’s second-largest LNG importer. By 2040, China is expected to import about 11 Bcf/d, as much as the world’s largest LNG importer, Japan.
China’s pipeline imports increased to 3.7 Bcf/d in 2016, accounting for 19% of the total natural gas supply. Although the IEO2017 Reference Case expects China’s imports of natural gas by pipeline to rise in absolute terms to 7.3 Bcf/d in 2040, their share of China’s total supply is projected to fall to 12% by that year. China began importing natural gas by pipeline from Turkmenistan in 2010 and has since begun importing natural gas from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Myanmar. EIA expects natural gas imports from Russia on the new 3.7 Bcf/d Power of Siberia pipeline to begin in late 2019.
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The global oilfield scale inhibitor market was valued at USD 509.4 Million in 2014 and is expected to witness a CAGR of 5.40% between 2015 and 2020. Factors driving the market of oilfield scale inhibitor include increasing demand from the oil and gas industry, wide availability of scale inhibitors, rising demand for biodegradable and environment-compatible scale inhibitors, and so on.
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The oilfield scale inhibitor market is experiencing strong growth and is mainly driven by regions, such as RoW, North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Considerable amount of investments are made by different market players to serve the end-user applications of scale inhibitors. The global market is segmented into major geographic regions, such as North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World (RoW). The market has also been segmented on the basis of type. On the basis of type of scale inhibitors, the market is sub-divided into phosphonates, carboxylate/acrylate, sulfonates, and others.
Carboxylate/acrylic are the most common type of oilfield scale inhibitor
Among the various types of scale inhibitors, the carboxylate/acrylate type holds the largest share in the oilfield scale inhibitor market. This large share is attributed to the increasing usage of this type of scale inhibitors compared to the other types. Carboxylate/acrylate meets the legislation requirement, abiding environmental norms due to the absence of phosphorus. Carboxylate/acrylate scale inhibitors are used in artificial cooling water systems, heat exchangers, and boilers.
RoW, which includes the Middle-East, Africa, and South America, is the most dominant region in the global oilfield scale inhibitor market
The RoW oilfield scale inhibitor market accounted for the largest share of the global oilfield scale inhibitor market, in terms of value, in 2014. This dominance is expected to continue till 2020 due to increased oil and gas activities in this region. The Middle-East, Africa, and South America have abundant proven oil and gas reserves, which will enable the rapid growth of the oilfield scale inhibitor market in these regions. Among the regions in RoW, Africa’s oilfield scale inhibitor market has the highest prospect for growth. Africa has a huge amount of proven oil reserves and is one of the leading oil producing region in the World. But political unrest coupled with lack of proper infrastructures may negatively affect oil and gas activities in this region.
Major players in this market are The Dow Chemical Company (U.S.), BASF SE (Germany), AkzoNobel Oilfield (The Netherlands), Kemira OYJ (Finland), Solvay S.A. (Belgium), Halliburton Company (U.S.), Schlumberger Limited (U.S.), Baker Hughes Incorporated (U.S.), Clariant AG (Switzerland), E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (U.S.), Evonik Industries AG (Germany), GE Power & Water Process Technologies (U.S.), Ashland Inc. (U.S.), and Innospec Inc. (U.S.).
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 9 December 2019 – Brent: US$64/b; WTI: US$59/b
Headlines of the week
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), India has the fastest-growing rate of energy consumption globally through 2050. By 2050, EIA projects in the IEO2019 Reference case that India will consume more energy than the United States by the mid-2040s, and its consumption will remain second only to China through 2050. EIA explored three alternative outcomes for India’s energy consumption in an Issue in Focus article released today and a corresponding webinar held at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
Long-term energy consumption projections in India are uncertain because of its rapid rate of change magnified by the size of its economy. The Issue in Focus article explores two aspects of uncertainty regarding India’s future energy consumption: economic composition by sector and industrial sector energy intensity. When these assumptions vary, it significantly increases estimates of future energy consumption.
In the IEO2019 Reference case, EIA projects the economy of India to surpass the economies of the European countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United States by the late 2030s to become the second-largest economy in the world, behind only China. In EIA’s analysis, gross domestic product values for countries and regions are expressed in purchasing power parity terms.
The IEO2019 Reference case shows India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growing from $9 trillion in 2018 to $49 trillion in 2050, an average growth rate of more than 5% per year, which is higher than the global average annual growth rate of 3% in the IEO2019 Reference case.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
India’s economic growth will continue to drive India’s growing energy consumption. In the IEO2019 Reference case, India’s total energy consumption increases from 35 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018 to 120 quadrillion Btu in 2050, growing from a 6% share of the world total to 13%. However, annually, the level of GDP in India has a lower energy consumption than some other countries and regions.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
In the Issue in Focus, three alternative cases explore different assumptions that affect India’s projected energy consumption:
EIA’s analysis shows that the country's industrial activity has a greater effect on India’s energy consumption than technological improvements. In the IEO2019 Composition and Combination cases, where the assumption is that economic growth is more concentrated in manufacturing, energy use in India grows at a greater rate because those industries have higher energy intensities.
In the IEO2019 Combination case, India’s industrial energy consumption grows to 38 quadrillion Btu more in 2050 than in the Reference case. This difference is equal to a more than 4% increase in 2050 global energy use.