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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017
Global natural gas consumption is expected to grow from 340 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2015 to 485 Bcf/d by 2040, primarily in countries in Asia and in the Middle East, based on projections in EIA’s latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). China accounts for more than a quarter of all global natural gas consumption growth between 2015 and 2040.
The projected growth in natural gas consumption in China is driven by environmental policies, relative cost competiveness of natural gas in the industrial and transportation sectors, and relatively high economic growth.
China’s environmental policies are designed to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions by promoting natural gas in the country’s energy mix—replacing some coal and oil use with natural gas. In China’s 13th Five-Year Plan and the latest Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-30), the Chinese government set targets to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix from 5.9% in 2015 to 10% by 2020 and 15% by 2030.
EIA projects China’s natural gas consumption to grow from 19 Bcf/d in 2015 to 57 Bcf/d in 2040, surpassing all other countries except the United States. In the IEO2017 Reference case, U.S. natural gas consumption is projected to grow at a more modest rate, from 75 Bcf/d in 2015 to 88 Bcf/d in 2040, with the United States remaining the world’s largest natural gas consumer.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017, China Development and Reform Commission, China Customs
China’s domestic natural gas production reached 13 Bcf/d in 2016, accounting for 64% of China’s total natural gas supply. The IEO2017 Reference Case projects that China’s domestic natural gas production will reach 39 Bcf/d by 2040, driven primarily by the development of shale gas resources. EIA estimates that China holds the largest reserves of technically recoverable shale gas in the world, and China was among the first countries outside of North America to develop its shale resources.
The IEO2017 Reference case projects China’s shale gas production will grow from 0.7 Bcf/d in 2016 to 10 Bcf/d by 2030 and 19 Bcf/d by 2040, when shale gas is projected to account for a third of China’s total natural gas supply. China’s natural gas production from other sources, such as coalbed methane, tight formations, and more traditional natural gas reservoirs, is projected to increase more modestly, from 12 Bcf/d from these sources in 2016 to 20 Bcf/d by 2040.
Pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports make up the rest of China’s supply, collectively accounting for 36% of the 2016 total and projected to account for 32% of the 2040 total. China’s LNG imports tripled between 2010 and 2016, reaching 3.5 Bcf/d (17% of total supply) in 2016. By 2018, China is projected to surpass South Korea as the world’s second-largest LNG importer. By 2040, China is expected to import about 11 Bcf/d, as much as the world’s largest LNG importer, Japan.
China’s pipeline imports increased to 3.7 Bcf/d in 2016, accounting for 19% of the total natural gas supply. Although the IEO2017 Reference Case expects China’s imports of natural gas by pipeline to rise in absolute terms to 7.3 Bcf/d in 2040, their share of China’s total supply is projected to fall to 12% by that year. China began importing natural gas by pipeline from Turkmenistan in 2010 and has since begun importing natural gas from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Myanmar. EIA expects natural gas imports from Russia on the new 3.7 Bcf/d Power of Siberia pipeline to begin in late 2019.
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In 2019, consumption of renewable energy in the United States grew for the fourth year in a row, reaching a record 11.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), or 11% of total U.S. energy consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) new U.S. renewable energy consumption by source and sector chart published in the Monthly Energy Review shows how much renewable energy by source is consumed in each sector.
In its Monthly Energy Review, EIA converts sources of energy to common units of heat, called British thermal units (Btu), to compare different types of energy that are more commonly measured in units that are not directly comparable, such as gallons of biofuels compared with kilowatthours of wind energy. EIA uses a fossil fuel equivalence to calculate primary energy consumption of noncombustible renewables such as wind, hydro, solar, and geothermal.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
Wind energy in the United States is almost exclusively used by wind-powered turbines to generate electricity in the electric power sector, and it accounted for about 24% of U.S. renewable energy consumption in 2019. Wind surpassed hydroelectricity to become the most-consumed source of renewable energy on an annual basis in 2019.
Wood and waste energy, including wood, wood pellets, and biomass waste from landfills, accounted for about 24% of U.S. renewable energy use in 2019. Industrial, commercial, and electric power facilities use wood and waste as fuel to generate electricity, to produce heat, and to manufacture goods. About 2% of U.S. households used wood as their primary source of heat in 2019.
Hydroelectric power is almost exclusively used by water-powered turbines to generate electricity in the electric power sector and accounted for about 22% of U.S. renewable energy consumption in 2019. U.S. hydropower consumption has remained relatively consistent since the 1960s, but it fluctuates with seasonal rainfall and drought conditions.
Biofuels, including fuel ethanol, biodiesel, and other renewable fuels, accounted for about 20% of U.S. renewable energy consumption in 2019. Biofuels usually are blended with petroleum-based motor gasoline and diesel and are consumed as liquid fuels in automobiles. Industrial consumption of biofuels accounts for about 36% of U.S. biofuel energy consumption.
Solar energy, consumed to generate electricity or directly as heat, accounted for about 9% of U.S. renewable energy consumption in 2019 and had the largest percentage growth among renewable sources in 2019. Solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, including rooftop panels, and solar thermal power plants use sunlight to generate electricity. Some residential and commercial buildings heat with solar heating systems.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Electric Generator Inventory
Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual survey of electric generators, natural gas-fired generators accounted for 43% of operating U.S. electricity generating capacity in 2019. These natural gas-fired generators provided 39% of electricity generation in 2019, more than any other source. Most of the natural gas-fired capacity added in recent decades uses combined-cycle technology, which surpassed coal-fired generators in 2018 to become the technology with the most electricity generating capacity in the United States.
Technological improvements have led to improved efficiency of natural gas generators since the mid-1980s, when combined-cycle plants began replacing older, less efficient steam turbines. For steam turbines, boilers combust fuel to generate steam that drives a turbine to generate electricity. Combustion turbines use a fuel-air mixture to spin a gas turbine. Combined-cycle units, as their name implies, combine these technologies: a fuel-air mixture spins gas turbines to generate electricity, and the excess heat from the gas turbine is used to generate steam for a steam turbine that generates additional electricity.
Combined-cycle generators generally operate for extended periods; combustion turbines and steam turbines are typically only used at times of peak load. Relatively few steam turbines have been installed since the late 1970s, and many steam turbines have been retired in recent years.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Electric Generator Inventory
Not only are combined-cycle systems more efficient than steam or combustion turbines alone, the combined-cycle systems installed more recently are more efficient than the combined-cycle units installed more than a decade ago. These changes in efficiency have reduced the amount of natural gas needed to produce the same amount of electricity. Combined-cycle generators consume 80% of the natural gas used to generate electric power but provide 85% of total natural gas-fired electricity.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Electric Generator Inventory
Every U.S. state, except Vermont and Hawaii, has at least one utility-scale natural gas electric power plant. Texas, Florida, and California—the three states with the most electricity consumption in 2019—each have more than 35 gigawatts of natural gas-fired capacity. In many states, the majority of this capacity is combined-cycle technology, but 44% of New York’s natural gas capacity is steam turbines and 67% of Illinois’s natural gas capacity is combustion turbines.
Countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Asia, including China and India, and in Africa are home to more than two-thirds of the world population. These regions accounted for 44% of primary energy consumed by the electric sector in 2019, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected they will reach 56% by 2050 in the Reference case in the International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019). Changes in these economies significantly affect global energy markets.
Today, EIA is releasing its International Energy Outlook 2020 (IEO2020), which analyzes generating technology, fuel price, and infrastructure uncertainty in the electricity markets of Africa, Asia, and India. A related webcast presentation will begin this morning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2020 (IEO2020)
IEO2020 focuses on the electricity sector, which consumes a growing share of the world’s primary energy. The makeup of the electricity sector is changing rapidly. The use of cost-efficient wind and solar technologies is increasing, and, in many regions of the world, use of lower-cost liquefied natural gas is also increasing. In IEO2019, EIA projected renewables to rise from about 20% of total energy consumed for electricity generation in 2010 to the largest single energy source by 2050.
The following are some key findings of IEO2020:
IEO2020 builds on the Reference case presented in IEO2019. The models, economic assumptions, and input oil prices from the IEO2019 Reference case largely remained unchanged, but EIA adjusted specific elements or assumptions to explore areas of uncertainty such as the rapid growth of renewable energy.
Because IEO2020 is based on the IEO2019 modeling platform and because it focuses on long-term electricity market dynamics, it does not include the impacts of COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts. The Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) and IEO2021 will both feature analyses of the impact of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on energy markets.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2020 (IEO2020)
Note: Click to enlarge.
With the IEO2020 release, EIA is publishing new Plain Language documentation of EIA’s World Energy Projection System (WEPS), the modeling system that EIA uses to produce IEO projections. EIA’s new Handbook of Energy Modeling Methods includes sections on most WEPS components, and EIA will release more sections in the coming months.
