Last Updated: October 31, 2017
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Press Release
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Middle East NOCs Identify Diversification as Priority for Stable
Long-Term Business Growth

 

Investment Strategies Aim to Maximise Revenue from Each Barrel of Oil

 

ADIPEC Will Support Vertical Integration Through Upstream, Midstream and Downstream Value Chain

 

Abu Dhabi, UAE – 8 October 2017 – An expanded and restructured strategic conference programme at the world’s leading annual meeting for senior oil and gas decision makers, the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), will play a vital role in driving strategic investment decisions across the industry’s full value chain, organisers said today.

Investment in refining and selling the oil and gas industry’s end products, such as fuel, plastics, and petrochemicals, is emerging as a core business strategy among Middle East national oil companies (NOCs) wanting to capture more of the processed value of their natural resource.

ADIPEC’s 2017 strategic programme will be restructured to reflect this change. An expanded programme recognises the conference’s high-level participants – who include some of the world’s most powerful oil and gas CEOs – command businesses that cover the full scope of upstream, midstream, and downstream operations.

“ADIPEC’s guiding purpose is to be the convening power for the global industry, a platform where the industry’s leading CEOs define and refine their strategic direction,” said Ali Khalifa Al Shamsi, Al Yasat CEO and ADIPEC 2017 Chairman. “Although exploration, production and export of crude oil remain the foundation of the region’s NOCs, today’s business models increasingly look beyond this, making downstream investments that accumulate benefits through each value-added process. ADIPEC is committed to acting as a driving force in support of this evolution.”

ADIPEC’s strategic conference programme will include several ministerial sessions and four global business leader sessions, offering panel discussions and interviews with some of the senior government and industry decision makers who are shaping the future of oil and gas. An additional four downstream global business leader sessions will focus exclusively on value-added processes. Specialised sessions within the conference programme will offer knowledge exchange in areas such as security, the offshore and marine sector, and the role of women in the energy industry. For C-level delegates, there will be 10 C-suite dialogues, offering highly exclusive, interactive panel discussions of critical business issues. As well as the strategic conference, ADIPEC offers oil and gas professionals 119 technical sessions catering to all aspects of the industry.

The conference programme sits alongside a world-class commercial exhibition and offers unrivalled one-to-one business networking opportunities, confirming ADIPEC as a deal-making hub where the industry’s most influential decision makers find connections and forge partnerships that will drive future growth.

As a platform for discussing the industry’s most important issues, ADIPEC consistently adapts to meet leadership concerns. From a strong focus on exploration and production during the pre-2014 period of sustained high oil prices, 2015 and 2016 have emphasised innovation and improved efficiency to reduce immediate costs. The latest changes recognise an industry adapting to a new normal. This sees investment returning to exploration and production in anticipation of rising demand, growing interest in natural gas, and a long-term imperative to add value to the resource.

As part of its integrated 2030 Strategy, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which hosts ADIPEC, is creating more profitable downstream and more valuable upstream businesses. The strategy will increase production capacity to 3.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2018; increase gasoline production to 10.2 million tonnes per annum by 2022, and grow petrochemicals production from 4.5 million tonnes in 2016 to 11.4 million tonnes by 2025. It will also diversify its range of high-value innovative plastics solutions. Similar goals are being set by NOCs across the Middle East and beyond.

The emerging business approach seeks to maximise the value of each barrel that NOCs produce, by generating additional revenue from each layer of processing, distribution and sales.  As well as generating more revenue, investments along the value chain can smooth out the impact of fluctuations in oil and gas prices, as rising or falling markets affect each layer of the industry differently.

According to analysis by the Boston Consulting Group, low prices for crude oil will often reduce profits for exploration and production, but at the same time will increase profits downstream as inputs become cheaper and buyer demand rises. When the oil price dropped sharply during 2014, margins at major European and Asian refining hubs went up, rising by around 72 per cent in Rotterdam and 57 per cent in Singapore. High prices for crude shift the balance in the opposite direction.

“With our strategic conference programme for 2017, ADIPEC breaks down the division between upstream and midstream sectors, extracting and transporting the natural resource, and downstream value-adding and manufacturing of products for the end customer,” said Christopher Hudson, President – dmg events, Global Energy, which organises ADIPEC.

“All these elements are one industry, and many of the CEOs who will convene at ADIPEC have a growing portfolio of responsibilities for every layer of a global, vertically integrated business. To fulfil our mission as the convening power for the global oil and gas industry, we must enable dialogue and insight across the full scope of their responsibilities and concerns.”

Confirmed speakers for the ADIPEC conference include H. E. Mohammed Barkindo, Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and H.E. Suhail Mohamed Mazrouei, Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, as well as government ministers from Egypt, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon, Nigeria and Mexico. They will be joined by CEOs from major NOCs, international oil companies (IOCs) and leading oilfield services firms, as well as top industry experts.

Conference sessions and panel discussions include broad-ranging knowledge exchange on achieving stable and sustainable long-term growth for the industry, including through collaboration and partnerships, innovation and efficiency of operations, enabling smart growth across the value chain, and driving investment into downstream refining and petrochemicals. Change and industry disruption will be important topics, looking at how the petroleum industry can adapt to the changing roles of oil and natural gas in a low-carbon future.

Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, hosted by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and organised by the Global Energy division of dmg events, ADIPEC is one of the world’s leading oil and gas events, and the largest in Africa and the Middle East.

ADIPEC will be held at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre from 13 to 16 November 2017.


- ENDS –

About ADIPEC

Held under the patronage of the President of the United Arab Emirates, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and organised by the Global Energy division of dmg events, ADIPEC is the global meeting point for oil and gas professionals. Standing as one of the world’s top energy events, and the largest in the Middle East and North Africa, ADIPEC is a knowledge-sharing platform that enables industry experts to exchange ideas and information that shape the future of the energy sector. The 19th edition of ADIPEC 2016 took place from 7-10 November at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC). ADIPEC 2016 was supported by the UAE Ministry of Energy, Masdar, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the Abu Dhabi Chamber, and the Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority (TCA Abu Dhabi). dmg Global Energy is committed to helping the growing international energy community bridge gaps by bringing oil and gas professionals face to face with new technologies and business opportunities.


For media enquiries, please contact:

Nour Soliman

Senior Marketing Manager, DMG Events Global Energy

Twofour54, Park Rotana Offices, 6th Floor

PO Box 769256, Abu Dhabi, UAE

T: +971 (0)2 6970 515


Wallis 

[email protected]

T: +971 4 275 4100

Mark Robinson (English):  +971 (0)55 127 9764

Feras Hamzah (Arabic):     +971 (0)50 798 4784


For more info: http://www.adipec.com/

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Natural gas and wind forecast to be fastest growing sources of U.S. electricity generation

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that natural gas-fired electricity generation in the United States will increase by 6% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. EIA also forecasts that generation from wind power will increase by 6% in 2019 and by 14% in 2020. These trends vary widely among the regions of the country; growth in natural gas generation is highest in the mid-Atlantic region and growth in wind generation is highest in Texas. EIA expects coal-fired electricity generation to decline nationwide, falling by 15% in 2019 and by 9% in 2020.

The trends in projected generation reflect changes in the mix of generating capacity. In the mid-Atlantic region, which is mostly in the PJM Interconnection transmission area, the electricity industry has added more than 12 gigawatts (GW) of new natural gas-fired generating capacity since the beginning of 2018, an increase of 17%.

This new natural gas capacity in PJM has replaced some coal-fired generating capacity—6 GW of coal-fired generation capacity has been retired in that region since the beginning of 2018. The Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in New Jersey was also retired in 2018, and the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania plans to shut down its last remaining reactor this month.

These changes in capacity contribute to EIA’s forecast that natural gas will fuel 39% of electricity generation in the PJM region in 2020, up from a share of 31% in 2018. In contrast, coal is expected to generate 20% of PJM electricity next year, down from 28% in 2018. In 2010, coal fueled 54% of the region’s electricity generation, and natural gas generated 11%.

PJM annual electric power sector generation

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Wind power has been the fastest-growing source of electricity in recent years in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region that serves most of Texas. Since the beginning of 2018, the industry has added 3 GW of wind generating capacity and plans to add another 7 GW before the end of 2020. These additions would result in an increase of nearly 50% from the 2017 wind capacity level in ERCOT. EIA expects wind to supply 20% of ERCOT total generation in 2019 and 24% in 2020. If realized, wind would match coal’s share of ERCOT's electricity generation this year and exceed it in 2020.

ERCOT annual electric power sector generation

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural gas-fired generation in ERCOT has fluctuated in recent years in response to changes in the cost of the fuel. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas price will fall by 21% in 2019, which contributes to EIA’s expectation that ERCOT’s natural gas generation share will rise from 45% in 2018 to 47% this year. Although EIA forecasts next year’s natural gas prices to remain relatively flat in 2020, the large increase in renewable generating capacity is expected to reduce the region’s 2020 natural gas generation share to 41%.

September, 18 2019
Your Weekly Update: 9 - 13 September 2019

Market Watch  

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 9 September 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$56/b

  • Hope reigns as the market banks on signs that the US and China could reach a trade deal would eliminate one of the largest risks to current oil prices: a full-blown global recession
  • However, this is merely the latest in a series of dashed hopes that has seen the trade war between the US and China – using tariffs as weapons – escalate dramatically over the year; new tariffs entered play September 1 and more could come, with both sides already feeling the pinch
  • But crude prices did get a lift from EIA data showing that US crude stockpiles fell far more than expected, down by 4.8 million barrels to its lowest level since October 2018 – an indication of strong demand, with US refinery utilisation at 94.8%
  • However, there are fissures appearing on the supply side that could trigger some risk premiums; in Venezuela, the upstream crisis continues with the latest blow being a Chinese contractor halting work over claims over non payment
  • More importantly, Saudi Oil Minister – or rather former Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih – was dismissed from the government; after initial reports suggested that al-Falih would focus on energy policy after the oil ministry was split, a royal decree issued days later confirmed his sacking
  • Saudi Arabia and its allies have been at pains to re-assure the market that the dismissal of al-Falih – who is respected around the world – will not impact Saudi production or the current OPEC+ supply pact
  • This will be confirmed at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this week, which will be the first under Saudi Arabia’s new Energy Minister, one of the King’s sons Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman
  • Against this backdrop of turmoil, the active US rig count fell yet again; after two weeks of double-digit losses, US drillers lost four oil and two gas rigs, with losses seen once again in the Permian
  • Power moves within Saudi Arabia may have sent some tremors to the market, but it is likely that OPEC+ will stick to its commitments; with no signs that the US and China were doing anymore more than talking about talking, crude prices will remain rangebound – US$59-61/b for Brent and US$54-56/b for WTI

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Total has suspended plans for the US$3.5 billion crude export pipeline that would connect Ugandan oilfield to port facilities in Tanzania after a failure to buy a stake in Tullow Oil’s upstream assets in Uganda linked to tax negotiations; this will require a complete restart for the Uganda project
  • With other supermajors pulling out, Total remains committed to the North Sea, with CEO Patrick Pouyanne looking to invest up to US$10 billion over the next five years but cautions that Total maintain strict cost discipline
  • The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has consented to the startup of the giant Johan Sverdrup field, a potential 660,000 b/d resource that has been called the North Sea’s ‘last hurrah’
  • Permian-focused player Concho Resource has agreed to sell its assets in the New Mexico Shelf to Spur Energy Partners for US$925 million, continuing a wave of consolidation in the US shale arena
  • Shell has announced plans to start drilling in the offshore Saturno field in Brazil, becoming one of the first private players tapping the pre-salt Santos Basin

Midstream/Downstream

  • Sinopec’s new 160 kb/d Yangzi refinery has begun production of Europe-standard gasoline, providing an outlet for Chinese fuel products amid a domestic glut that has seen refiners look overseas for sales
  • Petrobras is extending the deadline for interested parties for its four refineries on sale from September 16 to September 27, citing high investor interest for the refining assets that represent 37% of Brazilian capacity
  • Saudi Aramco continues its downstream push in China, signing an MoU with the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone that could pave the way for further investments beyond current plans to acquire 9% of the Zhejiang Petrochemical refinery
  • Russia’s Sibur will be cutting back LPG exports to Europe to some 2 million tons from a typical 3.5-4 million tons per year, redirecting the LPG to be used as feedstock for its ZapSibNefteKhim petrochemicals plant in Western Siberia

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Months of uncertainty have been put to rest as the government of Papua New Guinea endorsed the US$13 billion Papua LNG project, following some new commitments by project leader Total – primarily on local content
  • Also in PNG, the government has approved Australian independent Twinza Oil’s Pasca gas/condensate project - the country’s first offshore gas project
  • ExxonMobil and its partners have sanctioned plans for the 6.2 mtpa Sakhalin 1 LNG plant on Sakhalin Island in Russia’s far east, with easy access to Japan
  • Argentina’s YPF is pushing ahead with plans to build a US$5 billion LNG export terminal – tapping into the Vaca Muerta shale basin – despite continued domestic political and financial chaos hanging over the project
  • Petronas has agreed to purchase natural gas that is set to produced from the Gorek, Larak and Bakong fields in the SK408 area in Sarawak, jointly operated by SapuraOMV Upstream, Petronas Carigali and Shell
  • Qatar Petroleum has booked 100% of regasification capacity at the Fluxys Zeebrugge LNG terminal until 2044, consolidating Qatar’s hold on one of Northwest Europe’s important gas entry nodes
  • Equinor has brought the Snefrid Nord gas field online, which is the first of several planned projects related to the Aasta Hansteen field to begin production, with an initial output of 4 mcm/d
September, 13 2019
Global gas and LNG outlook to 2035
Expansion in the gas and LNG markets continues, with LNG demand expected to increase 3.6 percent per year to 2035.

Detailed market research and continuous tracking of market developments—as well as deep, on-the-ground expertise across the globe—informs our outlook on global gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). We forecast gas demand and then use our infrastructure and contract models to forecast supply-and-demand balances, corresponding gas flows, and pricing implications to 2035.

Executive summary

The past year saw the natural-gas market grow at its fastest rate in almost a decade, supported by booming domestic markets in China and the United States and an expanding global gas trade to serve Asian markets. While the pace of growth is set to slow, gas remains the fastest-growing fossil fuel and the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2035.

Global gas: Demand expected to grow 0.9 percent per annum to 2035

While we expect coal demand to peak before 2025 and oil demand to peak around 2033, gas demand will continue to grow until 2035, albeit at a slower rate than seen previously. The power-generation and industrial sectors in Asia and North America and the residential and commercial sectors in Southeast Asia, including China, will drive the expected gas-demand growth. Strong growth from these regions will more than offset the demand declines from the mature gas markets of Europe and Northeast Asia.

Gas supply to meet this demand will come mainly from Africa, China, Russia, and the shale-gas-rich United States. China will double its conventional gas production from 2018 to 2035. Gas production in Europe will decline rapidly.

LNG: Demand expected to grow 3.6 percent per annum to 2035, with market rebalancing expected in 2027–28

We expect LNG demand to outpace overall gas demand as Asian markets rely on more distant supplies, Europe increases its gas-import dependence, and US producers seek overseas markets for their gas (both pipe and LNG). China will be a major driver of LNG-demand growth, as its domestic supply and pipeline flows will be insufficient to meet rising demand. Similarly, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Asia will rely on LNG to meet the growing demand to replace declining domestic supplies. We also expect Europe to increase LNG imports to help offset declining domestic supply.

Demand growth by the middle of next decade should balance the excess LNG capacity in the current market and planned capacity additions. We expect that further capacity growth of around 250 billion cubic meters will be necessary to meet demand to 2035.

With growing shale-gas production in the United States, the country is in a position to join Australia and Qatar as a top global LNG exporter. A number of competing US projects represent the long-run marginal LNG-supply capacity.

Key themes uncovered

Over the course of our analysis, we uncovered five key themes to watch for in the global gas market:

  1. Global LNG-price indicators have partially converged with the differentials among Asia, Europe, and the United States, falling to the smallest they have been in longer than a decade.
  2. Asia is leading a third wave of market liberalization after those in the United States and Europe, likely bringing fundamental changes to Asian markets.
  3. Long-term contract-pricing mechanisms are evolving in indexation and slope as gas and oil markets diverge, placing pressure on buyers to reshape their contract portfolios, with up to $15 billion per year at stake.
  4. Substantial new investment is necessary to deliver the infrastructure required to meet demand growth.
  5. Traditional, bilateral business models for LNG are being challenged today, and new business models with an increased focus on commercial and trading capabilities are emerging.
September, 13 2019