ADIPEC Experiencing Record Bookings from Russia and Central Asia
CEO-Level Delegations from Russia’s Top Oil and Gas Companies, National Pavilion More Than Five Times the Size of 2016
Growing Industry Seeks Greater Access to International Markets
Abu Dhabi, UAE – 17 October 2017 – Leading companies from the largest oil producing region outside OPEC, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), will be increasing their presence at this year’s Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), targeting the event as a hub for global deal-makers.
Two of Russia’s biggest oil and gas companies – Lukoil and Gazprom – have each confirmed substantial exhibition areas, with CEOs and other top-level decision makers leading their company delegations and taking part in strategic conference panels. They will be the biggest names among more than 30 Russian companies attending, many of them hosted at a Russian pavilion covering almost 600 square metres of exhibition floorspace – almost six times the size of last year’s 105 square metre pavilion.
They will be joined by resource owners from other CIS members, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, as well as by oilfield services companies from the region. Based in countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, they will be using ADIPEC as a gateway to international expansion.
“Russia is among the top 10 countries of the world in terms of oil reserves, and this has supported the growth of a highly sophisticated petroleum industry, from exploration and production, through to oilfield technology and services, transit, refining, distribution, and sales,” said Lukoil President Vagit Alekperov. “Russian companies are now actively expanding their international operations, and ADIPEC offers them access to global partnerships, including for new resources, new markets, and new investment.”
Alongside the big oil and gas producers, other well-known industry names attending ADIPEC include SCADTech, Revalve (PKTBA in Russia), Intra, Transneft Diascan, OZNA, GazNefteMash, and PTPA. The Skolkovo innovation, science and technology cluster, based just outside Moscow will also be an exhibitor.
Stretching from the edge of Europe, into Central Asia, and across Siberia into the Russian Far East, oil and gas projects in the CIS area have already attracted substantial investment from multinationals. Alongside the Western oil majors and supermajors, the region features a strong presence from other parts of Asia. Companies working in the region include Petronas from Malaysia, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Korea National Oil Corporation, and ITOCHU and INPEX from Japan.
As the industry moves beyond resource extraction, local NOCs and private oil companies are using their assets to move deeper into midstream and downstream sectors, as well as expanding beyond their borders.
Russia’s three largest operators lead this transformation. Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom now hold exploration, production and processing operations across the CIS and beyond, from Latin America to the North Sea, and from Africa to India and Southeast Asia. They have made significant investments in the MENA region, including in Iraq, Egypt and Libya, and are negotiating for projects in other countries. Lukoil has expressed interest in Abu Dhabi’s offshore leases when these are extended from 2018.
“ADIPEC is an essential destination for global oil and gas companies, so it makes sense that the big companies from the CIS come here,” said Ali Khalifa Al Shamsi, Al Yasat CEO and ADIPEC 2017 Chairman.
“We are located at the heart of the world’s most important oil and gas suppliers, so the biggest international customers, service companies, and investors, all come to ADIPEC, and they all bring their most senior people. We have a very strong presence from Asian markets, from India to China. ADIPEC is an opportunity to reach all of these of these markets and find new partners around the globe. Most importantly, the people who network at ADIPEC are the decision makers and they are here to do business.”
For companies from the CIS, partnerships to be found in Abu Dhabi can help drive the next evolution of their global business. While mainly driven by economic factors, diplomatic and political concerns are also motivating Russian businesses to look away from the United States or European Union. Cooperation with Asian partners, and with China in particular, is the most immediate priority.
China’s ambitious ‘New Silk Road’ project will improve trade links through Central Asia, with massive investment in new East-West land transport corridors passing through China, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, as well as Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey. The plan aims to revive the importance of historic overland links between East Asia and Europe, while also improving cross-border trade and investment between countries along the route.
For petroleum industries, new pipelines currently under construction between Russia and China are projected to add an extra 15 million tonnes of oil and 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas into the Chinese market per year. They are being built by ADIPEC-sponsor, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). CNPC has oil and gas operations in all the main CIS producer nations, across the Middle East, and both North and Sub-Saharan Africa among its global operations, involved in production, oilfield services, and construction.
“Business and trade links across the region are extremely dynamic, and oil and gas businesses are highly interconnected,” said Christopher Hudson, President – Global Energy at dmg events. “When you look at recent deals, CNPC has signed a group of agreements with both Rosneft and Gazprom this year, covering upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. That’s why ADIPEC is so important. It provides a time and place each year where the giants of oil and gas come together, whether they are the established supermajors of the West or the emerging powers of the East.”
To be held under the theme ‘Forging Ties, Driving Growth’, ADIPEC 2017 is expected to host more than 10,000 delegates, 2,200 exhibiting companies, 900 speakers, and in excess 100,000 visitors from 135 countries.
ADIPEC will be held at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre from 13 to 16 November 2017.
- ENDS –
Held under the patronage of the President of the United Arab Emirates, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and organised by the Global Energy division of dmg events, ADIPEC is the global meeting point for oil and gas professionals. Standing as one of the world’s top energy events, and the largest in the Middle East and North Africa, ADIPEC is a knowledge-sharing platform that enables industry experts to exchange ideas and information that shape the future of the energy sector. The 20th edition of ADIPEC takes place from 13-16 November at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC). ADIPEC 2017 is supported by the UAE Ministry of Energy, Masdar, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the Abu Dhabi Chamber, and the Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority (TCA Abu Dhabi). dmg Global Energy is committed to helping the growing international energy community bridge gaps by bringing oil and gas professionals face to face with new technologies and business opportunities.
For media enquiries, please contact:
Senior Marketing Manager, DMG Events Global Energy
Twofour54, Park Rotana Offices, 6th Floor
PO Box 769256, Abu Dhabi, UAE
T: +971 (0)2 6970 515
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Mark Robinson (English): +971 (0)55 127 9764
Feras Hamzah (Arabic): +971 (0)50 798 4784
For more info: http://www.adipec.com/
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Unplanned crude oil production outages for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2019, the highest six-month average since the end of 2015. EIA estimates that in June, Iran alone accounted for more than 60% (1.7 million b/d) of all OPEC unplanned outages.
EIA differentiates among declines in production resulting from unplanned production outages, permanent losses of production capacity, and voluntary production cutbacks for OPEC members. Only the first of those categories is included in the historical unplanned production outage estimates that EIA publishes in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Unplanned production outages include, but are not limited to, sanctions, armed conflicts, political disputes, labor actions, natural disasters, and unplanned maintenance. Unplanned outages can be short-lived or last for a number of years, but as long as the production capacity is not lost, EIA tracks these disruptions as outages rather than lost capacity.
Loss of production capacity includes natural capacity declines and declines resulting from irreparable damage that are unlikely to return within one year. This lost capacity cannot contribute to global supply without significant investment and lead time.
Voluntary cutbacks are associated with OPEC production agreements and only apply to OPEC members. Voluntary cutbacks count toward the country’s spare capacity but are not counted as unplanned production outages.
EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity—which only applies to OPEC members adhering to OPEC production agreements—as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. EIA does not include unplanned crude oil production outages in its assessment of spare production capacity.
As an example, EIA considers Iranian production declines that result from U.S. sanctions to be unplanned production outages, making Iran a significant contributor to the total OPEC unplanned crude oil production outages. During the fourth quarter of 2015, before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action became effective in January 2016, EIA estimated that an average 800,000 b/d of Iranian production was disrupted. In the first quarter of 2019, the first full quarter since U.S. sanctions on Iran were re-imposed in November 2018, Iranian disruptions averaged 1.2 million b/d.
Another long-term contributor to EIA’s estimate of OPEC unplanned crude oil production outages is the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Production halted there in 2014 because of a political dispute between the two countries. EIA attributes half of the PNZ’s estimated 500,000 b/d production capacity to each country.
In the July 2019 STEO, EIA only considered about 100,000 b/d of Venezuela’s 130,000 b/d production decline from January to February as an unplanned crude oil production outage. After a series of ongoing nationwide power outages in Venezuela that began on March 7 and cut electricity to the country's oil-producing areas, EIA estimates that PdVSA, Venezuela’s national oil company, could not restart the disrupted production because of deteriorating infrastructure, and the previously disrupted 100,000 b/d became lost capacity.
The UK has just designated the Persian Gulf as a level 3 risk for its ships – the highest level possible threat for British vessel traffic – as the confrontation between Iran with the US and its allies escalated. The strategically-important bit of water - and in particular the narrow Strait of Hormuz – is boiling over, and it seems as if full-blown military confrontation is inevitable.
The risk assessment comes as the British warship HMS Montrose had to escort the BP oil tanker British Heritage out of the Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean from being blocked by Iranian vessels. The risk is particularly acute as Iran is spoiling for a fight after the Royal Marines seized the Iranian crude supertanker Grace-1 in Gibraltar on suspicions that it was violating sanctions by sending crude to war-torn Syria. Tensions over the Gibraltar seizure kept the British Heritage tanker in ‘safe’ Saudi Arabian waters for almost a week after making a U-turn from the Basrah oil terminal in Iraq on fears of Iranian reprisals, until the HMW Montrose came to its rescue. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps have warned of further ‘reciprocation’ even as it denied the British Heritage incident ever occurred.
This is just the latest in a series of events around Iran that is rattling the oil world. Since the waivers on exports of Iranian crude by the USA expired in early May, there were four sabotage attacks on oil tankers in the region and two additional attacks in June, all near the major bunkering hub of Fujairah. Increased US military presence resulted in Iran downing an American drone, which almost led to a full-blown conflict were it not for a last-minute U-turn by President Donald Trump. Reports suggest that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps have moved military equipment to its southern coast surrounding the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which is 39km at its narrowest. Up to a third of all seaborne petroleum trade passes through this chokepoint and while Iran would most likely overrun by US-led forces eventually if war breaks out, it could cause a major amount of damage in a little amount of time.
The risk has already driven up oil prices. While a risk premium has already been applied to current oil prices, some analysts are suggesting that further major spikes in crude oil prices could be incoming if Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time. While international crude oil stocks will buffer any short-term impediment, if the Strait is closed for more than two weeks, crude oil prices could jump above US$100/b. If the Strait is closed for an extended period of time – and if the world has run down on its spare crude capacity – then prices could jump as high as US$325/b, according to a study conducted by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre in Riyadh. This hasn’t happened yet, but the impact is already being felt beyond crude prices: insurance premiums for ships sailing to and fro the Persian Gulf rose tenfold in June, while the insurance-advice group Joint War Committee has designated the waters as a ‘Listed Area’, the highest risk classification on the scale. VLCC rates for trips in the Persian Gulf have also slipped, with traders cagey about sending ships into the potential conflict zone.
This will continue, as there is no end-game in sight for the Iranian issue. With the USA vague on what its eventual goals are and Iran in an aggressive mood at perceived injustice, the situation could explode in war or stay on steady heat for a longer while. Either way, this will have a major impact on the global crude markets. The boiling point has not been reached yet, but the waters of the Strait of Hormuz are certainly simmering.
The Strait of Hormuz:
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 8 July 2019 – Brent: US$64/b; WTI: US$57/b
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