Modest Spending Increase Forecast for Maintenance and Production
Significant Potential in Natural Gas, New Offshore Exploration and Production Opportunities in Eastern Mediterranean
Abu Dhabi, UAE – 22 October 2017 – The Offshore and Marine industry is expected to see increased business at this year’s Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), with analysts predicting modest increases in spending for maintenance and production in the oil sector, and significant investment expected for new offshore natural gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Analysis by consultancy Douglas-Westwood has found that, although investment in new offshore production remains low, compared with pre-2014 levels, the outlook for maintenance, modifications and operations is ‘notably more positive’. Much of the rebound is caused by work orders, that have been delayed, coming back online.
Within the GCC area, 2017 has seen Saudi Aramco sign agreements with Abu Dhabi-based National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC) to purchase four offshore platforms and associated equipment, as well as a separate deal for the supply of 17 offshore jackets – the steel frames that support the platform.
Globally, consultants Wood Mackenzie are predicting renewed exploration and production for deep-water projects, with efficiency improvements having lowered the breakeven price by 20 per cent in the past three years.
“We are seeing renewed optimism among companies supporting offshore production, with demand underpinned by an industry that is now more efficient, stabilising prices, and the need to meet anticipated rising demand,” said Ali Khalifa Al Shamsi, Al Yasat CEO and ADIPEC 2017 Chairman.
“ADIPEC supports this growth as a market where suppliers can network with purchasing decision makers and generate new business. Its comprehensive strategic and technical conference programmes provide an unrivalled opportunity for specialised knowledge exchange.”
Natural gas is a significant contributor to the positive outlook, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where Egypt is seeing around USD 27.3 billion worth of investments across the Zohr, North Alexandria and Noras gas fields, and 76 new upstream exploration concessions have been signed worth around USD 1.5 billion. Cypriot and Lebanese waters also offer fresh opportunities for offshore exploration and production in the Eastern Mediterranean.
As investment moves into the sector, new projects will create business opportunities at ADIPEC’s unique Offshore and Marine area, which returns in 2017 for its third year.
Set directly on the waterfront, adjacent to the main ADIPEC venue, it is held in a dedicated purpose-built exhibition and conference space, with product displays encompassing the full value chain, from rigs, vessels, ship building, and subsea drilling equipment, to certification, pipelines, mooring, and tools for reservoir production and mapping.
The display’s defining feature will be the temporary quay, with a series of state-of-the-art offshore vessels berthed directly alongside the venue, including a jack-up barge, high-speed craft and landing craft, tugboats, and platform supply vessels up to 70 metres in length. Visitors will be able to tour the vessels on display, seeing the latest evolution in marine engineering and technology first-hand.
Mohammad Rizal, Chief Operating Officer at UAE-based shipyard group, Drydocks World, says the unique venue is an ideal setting for offshore suppliers to demonstrate their achievements and generate new business.
“At ADIPEC 2017, Drydocks World intends to update the marine industry on the yard’s offshore capabilities, while showcasing the world-first cutting-edge projects completed in the yard that demonstrate our competency to execute large-scale projects with a proven track record of excellent HSEQ standards,” said Mohammad Rizal. “We look forward to taking our business further and discussing future possibilities during ADIPEC 2017.”
For 2017, an expanded conference programme will underpin continued efficiency, innovation, and growth, as well as offer insights into new opportunities.
The breadth and quality of ADIPEC’s conference schedule has long set it apart from its peers. This year’s Offshore & Marine programme will offer unrivalled opportunities to hear from leading executives and experts in their field, and will cover an array of important topics from both a strategic and technical perspective. There will also be a dedicated session on the Emirates Maritime Arbitration Centre, and the processes available for resolving maritime legal disputes quickly and without unnecessary cost.
The specialised exhibition and conference area is expected to attract more than 15,000 visitors and 150 exhibitors. Companies with confirmed spaces include NPCC, Zakher Marine International (ZMI), Horizon Geosciences, Seajacks, Seacontractors, Seatrax, Guidance Marine, ADNOC, Khalid Faraj Shipping, Overseas Marine Logistics, Drydocks World - Dubai, and Maridive Group.
Panel discussions will be held over three days, covering future expectations and challenges, driving growth, and adapting to new market conditions. Confirmed speakers include senior executives from National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC), Wintershall, Cepsa Gas Comercializadora, McDermott, Foresight Group, Abu Dhabi Ship Building, Cyprus Hydrocarbons Company (CHC), Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA), Scottish Government Oil and Gas Taskforce, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company (KOTC), and ADNOC Logistics & Services.
Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, hosted by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and organised by the Global Energy division of dmg events, ADIPEC is one of the world’s leading oil and gas events, and the largest in Africa and the Middle East.
ADIPEC will be held at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre from 13 to 16 November 2017.
– ENDS –
Held under the patronage of the President of the United Arab Emirates, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and organised by the Global Energy division of dmg events, ADIPEC is the global meeting point for oil and gas professionals. Standing as one of the world’s top energy events, and the largest in the Middle East and North Africa, ADIPEC is a knowledge-sharing platform that enables industry experts to exchange ideas and information that shape the future of the energy sector. The 20th edition of ADIPEC will take place from 13-16 November, at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC). ADIPEC 2017 will be hosted by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and supported by the UAE Ministry of Energy, Masdar, the Abu Dhabi Chamber, the Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority (TCA Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Ports and the Department of Education and Knowledge. dmg Global Energy is committed to helping the growing international energy community bridge gaps by bringing oil and gas professionals face to face with new technologies and business opportunities.
For media enquiries, please contact:
Senior Marketing Manager, DMG Events Global Energy
Twofour54, Park Rotana Offices, 6th Floor
PO Box 769256, Abu Dhabi, UAE
T: +971 (0)2 6970 515
T: +971 4 275 4100
Mark Robinson (English): +971 (0)55 127 9764
Feras Hamzah (Arabic): +971 (0)50 798 4784
For more info: http://www.adipec.com/
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 9 September 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$56/b
Headlines of the week
Detailed market research and continuous tracking of market developments—as well as deep, on-the-ground expertise across the globe—informs our outlook on global gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). We forecast gas demand and then use our infrastructure and contract models to forecast supply-and-demand balances, corresponding gas flows, and pricing implications to 2035.Executive summary
The past year saw the natural-gas market grow at its fastest rate in almost a decade, supported by booming domestic markets in China and the United States and an expanding global gas trade to serve Asian markets. While the pace of growth is set to slow, gas remains the fastest-growing fossil fuel and the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2035.Global gas: Demand expected to grow 0.9 percent per annum to 2035
While we expect coal demand to peak before 2025 and oil demand to peak around 2033, gas demand will continue to grow until 2035, albeit at a slower rate than seen previously. The power-generation and industrial sectors in Asia and North America and the residential and commercial sectors in Southeast Asia, including China, will drive the expected gas-demand growth. Strong growth from these regions will more than offset the demand declines from the mature gas markets of Europe and Northeast Asia.
Gas supply to meet this demand will come mainly from Africa, China, Russia, and the shale-gas-rich United States. China will double its conventional gas production from 2018 to 2035. Gas production in Europe will decline rapidly.LNG: Demand expected to grow 3.6 percent per annum to 2035, with market rebalancing expected in 2027–28
We expect LNG demand to outpace overall gas demand as Asian markets rely on more distant supplies, Europe increases its gas-import dependence, and US producers seek overseas markets for their gas (both pipe and LNG). China will be a major driver of LNG-demand growth, as its domestic supply and pipeline flows will be insufficient to meet rising demand. Similarly, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Asia will rely on LNG to meet the growing demand to replace declining domestic supplies. We also expect Europe to increase LNG imports to help offset declining domestic supply.
Demand growth by the middle of next decade should balance the excess LNG capacity in the current market and planned capacity additions. We expect that further capacity growth of around 250 billion cubic meters will be necessary to meet demand to 2035.
With growing shale-gas production in the United States, the country is in a position to join Australia and Qatar as a top global LNG exporter. A number of competing US projects represent the long-run marginal LNG-supply capacity.Key themes uncovered
Over the course of our analysis, we uncovered five key themes to watch for in the global gas market:
Challenges in a growing market
Gas looks the best bet of fossil fuels through the energy transition. Coal demand has already peaked while oil has a decade or so of slowing growth before electric vehicles start to make real inroads in transportation. Gas, blessed with lower carbon intensity and ample resource, is set for steady growth through 2040 on our base case projections.
LNG is surfing that wave. The LNG market will more than double in size to over 1000 bcm by 2040, a growth rate eclipsed only by renewables. A niche market not long ago, shipped LNG volumes will exceed global pipeline exports within six years.The bullish prospects will buoy spirits as industry leaders meet at Gastech, LNG’s annual gathering – held, appropriately and for the first time, in Houston – September 17-19.
Investors are scrambling to grab a piece of the action. We are witnessing a supply boom the scale of which the industry has never experienced before. Around US$240 billion will be spent between 2019 and 2025 on greenfield and brownfield LNG supply projects, backfill and finishing construction for those already underway.50% to be added to global supply
In total, these projects will bring another 182 mmtpa to market, adding 50% to global supply. Over 100 mmtpa is from the US alone, most of the rest from Qatar, Russia, Canada, and Mozambique. Still, more capital will be needed to meet demand growth beyond the mid-2020s. But the rapid growth also presents major challenges for sellers and buyers to adapt to changes in the market.
There is a risk of bottlenecks as this new supply arrives on the market. The industry will have to balance sizeable waves of fresh sales volumes with demand growing in fits and starts and across an array of disparate marketplaces – some mature, many fledglings, a good few in between.
India has built three new re-gas terminals, but imports are actually down in 2019. The pipeline network to get the gas to regional consumers has yet to be completed. Pakistan has a gas distribution network serving its northern industrial centres. But the main LNG import terminals are in the south of the country, and the commitment to invest in additional transmission lines taking gas north is fraught with political uncertainty.
China is still wrestling with third-party access and regulation of the pipeline business that is PetroChina’s core asset. Any delay could dull the growth rate in Asia’s LNG hotspot. Europe is at the early stages of replacing its rapidly depleting sources of indigenous piped gas with huge volumes of LNG imports delivered to the coast. Will Europe’s gas market adapt seamlessly to a growing reliance on LNG – especially when tested at extreme winter peaks? Time will tell.
The point-to-point business model that has served sellers (and buyers) so well over the last 60 years will be tested by market access and other factors. Buyers facing mounting competition in their domestic market will increasingly demand flexibility on volume and price, and contracts that are diverse in duration and indexation. These traditional suppliers risk leaving value, perhaps a lot of value, on the table.
In the future, sellers need to be more sophisticated. The full toolkit will have a portfolio of LNG, a mixture of equity and third-party contracted gas; a trading capability to optimise on volume and price; and the requisite logistics – access to physical capacity of ships and re-gas terminals to shift LNG to where it’s wanted. Enlightened producers have begun to move to an integrated model, better equipped to meet these demands and capture value through the chain. Pure traders will muscle in too.
Some integrated players will think big picture, LNG becoming central to an energy transition strategy. As Big Oil morphs into Big Energy, LNG will sit alongside a renewables and gas-fired power generation portfolio feeding all the way through to gas and electricity customers.
LNG trumps pipe exports...
...as the big suppliers crank up volumes