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Sofiyan Yahya, SEAMOG CEO


  1. You have held and currently hold many important roles in oil & gas organisations, being a founding member and former president of MOGSC, current VP of MOGEC, and CEO of SEAMOG Group Sdn Bhd, to name a few. Over the years, what has been your greatest achievement(s)?
    From the point of view of various associations such as MOGSC and MOGEC, I think my greatest achievement through these organisations is that I have contributed towards the creation of a platform for industry and stakeholders to discuss and collaborate in a sustainable way on issues related to the industry. In the past, it was very much driven in one direction but since the organisations were formed, there is a platform where all relevant parties can engage collaboratively. To me this is a significant development for the local industry, to be able to have their voices heard, and play a role in shaping the future of the industry. Furthermore, through these organizations, we have been able to create a sort of community for the industry.  A community where stakeholders, government and the industry players themselves, can gather through various working platforms, meetings, forums, conferences, and even social events such as dinners and sport events. We’re not just all work, we also play together.

    As CEO of SEAMOG Group, a 100% Malaysian, very much a home-grown company – I think it’s an achievement for a local player to be able to offer the range of services we have. We have done this based on our determination and commitment to offer our experience, technical capabilities and resources, which we can also export. We are also happy that we have been able to contribute to the nation as our presence means another local player has emerged from the industry.

  2. Are there challenges you faced that became a crucial learning point for you? How did you overcome them?
    There are challenges but there was no one specific challenge that was so outstanding. I always keep an open mind. The key thing is, as long as you’re determined and resourceful, and apply yourself with initiative, every challenge is surmountable. That’s the only way you can progress.  

  3. Did you always know what you wanted to do in your career? What did you do to prepare yourself before starting your first job? I understand that your first job was in Petronas as an engineer.
    I have always been a determined person, so I always knew what I wanted to be. There wasn’t a time when I didn’t know what I wanted. If you know what you want from the beginning, then the issue isn’t so much about Where to start. If that is an issue for you, then you’ll have a slower start, because you need to get over that question first. But if you believe in yourself, and know what you want to achieve, then these are only minor issues because you are already on your way to going for your goals and working towards achieving them.

  4. What do you think about the current workforce coming into industry? What skills do you think are most relevant or most in demand today?
    The range of skills needed have always been the same, the oil and gas industry still requires the same range of capabilities from welders, riggers, technicians, engineers to specialist experts. The skill disciplines required to run and operate the oil and gas industry are the same. The only thing is because of the downturn, the industry is more focused on downstream, so perhaps we need more people for these downstream activities. But then again, when we talk about the capabilities needed for offshore and onshore – if you’re an expert in pumps offshore, you can also use this expertise in the petrochemical plants onshore. The same goes if you’re a welder, you can work offshore and you can also work onshore.

    The other issue is growing new talents and expand the talent pool. For example, now there is a lot of focus in Sabah and Sarawak areas, as well as in Johor for Pengerang project. There is a huge opportunity for growing local talents to serve the industry there. And when we want to go overseas, we also require more talents to follow the businesses and perform projects won overseas.

  5. What do you think about this statement, “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.” Do you agree with that? Has your professional network been helpful in your career progression?
    I think for oil and gas industry, that’s not accurate. In general, oil and gas requires a higher standard of specifications, behaviour and discipline. So, no matter who you know, if you cannot perform at that higher level of standards and expectations, then you will eventually fail as a business. The ‘who you know’ is not sustainable in the oil and gas industry and is very short term, if that is your planned route to success. What is more important in this industry is what do you know, what are you capable of and what is your deliverable?

  6. Recent news have reported that the market condition for the oil & gas industry is slowly recovering. At the moment, the oil prices seem to hover between $50 - $60 per barrel. Do you think the price will go any higher?
    I think in the short term or in the near future, it’s not going to go above $60. I do believe $50 - $60 is what the range will be.

  7. What do you think is the future for oil & gas, especially with the emergence of Renewable energy?
    Renewable energy has been around for a while. The way I see it, it is an alternative. We still have coal for our power stations, and also hydroelectric power, so to me it is about co-existing alternatives. The world needs to look at the most efficient energy source and energy usage. I believe that renewable energy will co-exist with oil and gas, and that oil and gas will still be around for sometime because it has its niche where it is actually the most cost efficient use and application of energy. Of course if a time comes when renewable energy is much more efficient than anything else, then we should all move towards that – that’s a different scenario. For the moment, I believe that like with everything we have in this world today, we have alternatives. And having alternatives is always a good thing for the world.

  8. Do you foresee further consolidation in the supply side happening in the Malaysian oil industry in the near future?
    In the short term, the consolidation will happen because of the current situation. If we’re talking about the Malaysian scenario then of course it is dependent on how big is the Malaysian market. Now that it’s shrunk in certain areas, they will have to consolidate, otherwise they cannot survive. This will definitely have to happen in the near future and it is going to shape the industry. After that, we can’t say what will happen next. The crystal ball is very hard to see with clarity at the moment.

  9. What will be the critical success factors or qualities needed of entrepreneurs in the local oil and gas sector to sustain and even strive in the current competitive climate?
    Commitment to the business is important. A real entrepreneur who wants to go into a certain industry sector has to be really committed. By having this commitment and determination, you will find the solutions to be successful. It’s not so much about competitiveness – this is not the first time the industry climate has become very competitive. In fact, this is probably the third time in the span of 10-20 years that we are seeing this sort of business environment. During this time, businesses must persevere. When the going gets tough, the tough gets going. And it’s not just oil and gas, other industries go through downturns as well. So, if an entrepreneur wants to go into the local oil and gas industry, they must have that commitment and determination to see through their business plan and their services or products offerings. If you do not have that determination, I do not think you will succeed. Again, this applies to any business in any industry sector.

  10. Besides depending on PETRONAS for contracts, do you see more local players preparing to venture overseas for more work (eg. what SapuraEnergy has done to-date)? As Malaysia has a low-cost base and experienced workforce.
    The industry does not depend solely on PETRONAS for contracts. Yes, Malaysia does have relatively low-cost base, and we also have an experienced workforce. I think it’s very important to encourage Malaysians to work overseas. For regions such as the Middle East, despite their already diverse workforce, they welcome Malaysians for our experience, capability and professionalism. Perhaps because of our focus here in Malaysia has been maximising Malaysian content, Malaysians tend to focus on Malaysian work rather than go overseas. In this downturn however, more Malaysians have found work overseas. We spoke about consolidation earlier, and with more businesses offering wider range of services and capabilities, Malaysian players are becoming more attractive and relevant overseas.

  11. Do you have a motto or philosophy that you follow in life?
    Set your goals and be determined. Determination is the key ingredient in what I do. Never give up and be determined to see things through.

  12. And finally, what do you do to unwind after a stressful day at work? 
    I love getting into nature and photography. I guess they are activities that are completely opposite from what I do in my day-to-day business, hence the opportunity to unwind.

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February, 17 2020
Your Weekly Update: 10 -14 February 2020

Market Watch   

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 10 February 2020 – Brent: US$53/b; WTI: US$49/b

  • The demand destruction caused by the Covid-19 pandemic – also known as the Wuhan coronavirus – has dragged crude prices to fresh lows, with OPEC+ struggling to present a united front to respond to the demand crisis
  • Earlier indications that OPEC+ was preparing to call for an emergency meeting mid-February to discuss the pandemic’s impact on the oil market were dashed, hinting at divisions within the oil club
  • Reportedly, OPEC’s technical committee was proposing to extend the club’s supply quota agreement through June 2020; Saudi Arabia – along with Iran and Bahrain – were the strongest supporters, but Russia remains reticent to commit
  • A group of key Russian oil producers are in support of extending the OPEC+ cuts, with Gazprom, Lukoil and Rosneft indicating that it ‘made sense’
  • In the face of the huge impact of Covid-19, the so-called Brent red spread sank into contango, indicating an intensely bear-ish market
  • Although the fatality rate of the new coronavirus is much lower than SARS, the spread has been far more severe and wider, with confirmed cases nearing 70,000 and deaths nearing 1,500
  • After being on lockdown for weeks, Chinese factories and businesses have gradually returned to work at a glacial pace, impacting gasoline, gasoil and - most significantly – jet fuel demand, causing Chinese refineries to slash output
  • News that China and the US would both implement tariff cuts on the pre-Phase 1 trade deal levies on February 14 failed to calm the market, supporting the floor for prices rather than raising the ceiling
  • Amid that chaos, the US active rig count dropped four rigs, falling down to 790 total and down 255 sites y-o-y; however, the relationship between this proxy and actual production has diminished over the past two years, as the US continues to produce more oil from less rigs
  • Hopes that the outbreak might have peaked has supported crude oil prices this year, although a major spike in confirmed cases from a wider diagnosis tool nipped that in the bud; expect crude oil prices to continue hovering around the US$50/b mark, at US$51-53/b for Brent and US$49-51/b for WTI


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Chevron and Petrobras will be selling their stakes in the heavy oil Papa-terra field in the Campos Basin, seeking new operatorship for the BC-20 concession asset that is currently split 62.5/37.5 between Petrobras and Chevron
  • Shell plans to boost its output in the Permian Basin to some 250,000 b/d by end-2020, up from a current production level of 100,000 b/d as it announced plans to invest up to US$3 billion per year in the prolific US shale area
  • Eni’s oil production in Libya has halved to 160,000 b/d, as the country continues to grapple with a blockade started by military strongman Khalifa Haftar
  • Disappointing results in Africa have forced Tullow Oil to reduce its headcount in Kenya by 40%, with operations in Kenya, Uganda and Ghana all yielding either poor results or in danger of significant delays
  • BP and Shell have brought the Alligin field in the UK West of Shetlands region online, with initial output at a better-than-expected 12,000 b/d
  • Guyana’s oil riches keep increasing; after ExxonMobil upped estimates at the Stabroek block last month, Eco Atlantic (together with Tullow Oil and Total) have upped reserves in the Orinduik block from 3.98 mmboe/d to 5.14 mmboe/d

Midstream/Downstream

  • Reports suggest that Chinese independent teapot refineries in Shandong have slashed their utilisation rates by 30-50%, scaling down in response to severely diminished fuel and petrochemicals demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic
  • Chinese state refiners are following suit with slashing output, with CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina all lowering their throughput rates by 10-15%
  • Shell has finalised the sale of its Martinez refinery in California, selling it to PBF Energy for some US$1.2 billion, including its supply/offtake agreements
  • Botswana is accelerating its US$4 billion coal-to-liquids refinery project, now expecting to complete the site by 2025, with the aim of tapping into the country’s major coal reserves that are some of the largest in Africa
  • The UK has extended its goal to end the sale of all gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles in the UK by 2035 to include hybrid vehicles, which would move transport fuel demand entirely to electric vehicles then

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Abu Dhabi and Dubai report that they have made a major natural gas find, with the Jebel Ali reservoir located between the two largest sheikhdoms in the UAE holding some 80 tcf of resources - the world’s largest gas find in 15 years
  • The government of Papua New Guinea has walked away from talks over the P’nyang gas field, impacting the planned expansion of ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG project; the government had previously tried a similar tactic with Total
  • The EU has imposed sanctions on Turkey, in retaliation for its continued exploration of gas resources in the disputed waters off Cyprus that Turkey claims is part of the breakaway Turkish province in the north of the island
  • CNOOC has declared force majeure on some LNG contracts due to the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, but two of the world’s largest LNG traders – Shell and Total – have rejected the Chinese attempt to nullify contractual terms
  • Centrica will take a major write-down on its gas assets in Europe, continuing a trend of the global natural gas glut eroding the value of gas assets worldwide
  • GeoPark has made a new natural gas discovery in Chile, with the Jauke Oeste field in the Fell block of the Magallanese Basin yielding small-but-significant gas flows of some 4.4 mscf/d
February, 14 2020
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels

  • EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will average 100.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020. This demand level is 0.9 million b/d less than forecast in the January STEO and reflects both the effects of the coronavirus and warmer-than-normal January temperatures across much of the northern hemisphere. EIA now expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will rise by 1.0 million b/d in 2020, which is lower than the forecast increase in the January STEO of 1.3 million b/d in 2020, and by 1.5 million b/d in 2021.
  • EIA’s global petroleum and liquid fuels supply forecast assumes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will reduce crude oil production by 0.5 million b/d from March through May because of lower expected global oil demand in early 2020. This OPEC reduction is in addition to the cuts announced at the group’s December 2019 meeting. EIA now forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 28.9 million b/d in 2020, which is 0.3 million less than forecast in the January STEO. In addition to these production cuts, EIA’s lower forecast OPEC production reflects ongoing crude oil production outages in Libya during the first quarter. In general, EIA assumes that OPEC will limit production through all of 2020 and 2021 to target relatively balanced global oil markets.
  • Global liquid fuels inventories fell by roughly 0.1 million b/d in 2019, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.2 million b/d in 2020. Although EIA expects inventories to rise overall in 2020, EIA forecasts inventories will build by 0.6 million b/d in the first half of the year because of slow oil demand growth and strong non-OPEC oil supply growth. Firmer demand growth as the global economy strengthens and slower supply growth later in the year contribute to forecast inventory draws of 0.1 million b/d in the second half of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories will decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2021.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64 per barrel (b) in January, down $4/b from December. Brent prices fell steadily through January and into the first week of February, closing at less than $54/b on February 4, the lowest price since December 2018, reflecting market concerns about oil demand. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $61/b in 2020; with prices averaging $58/b during the first half of the year and $64/b during the second half of the year. EIA forecasts the average Brent prices will rise to an average of $68/b in 2021.

Natural gas

  • In January, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.02 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), as warm weather contributed to below-average inventory withdrawals and put downward pressure on natural gas prices. As of February 6, the Henry Hub spot price had fallen to $1.86/MMBtu, and EIA expects prices will remain below $2.00/MMBtu in February and March. EIA forecasts that prices will rise in the second quarter of 2020, as U.S. natural gas production declines and natural gas use for power generation increases the demand for gas. EIA expects prices to average $2.36/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2020. EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.21/MMBtu in 2020. EIA expects that natural gas prices will then increase in 2021, reaching an annual average of $2.53/MMBtu.
  • U.S. dry natural gas production set a record in 2019, averaging 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Although EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 94.2 Bcf/d in 2020, a 2% increase from 2019, EIA expects monthly production to generally decline through 2020, falling from an estimated 95.4 Bcf/d in January to 92.5 Bcf/d in December. The falling production mostly occurs in the Appalachian and Permian regions. In the Appalachia region, low natural gas prices are discouraging natural gas-directed drilling, and in the Permian, low oil prices are expected to reduce associated gas output from oil-directed wells. In 2021, EIA forecasts dry natural gas production to stabilize near December 2020 levels at an annual average of 92.6 Bcf/d, a 2% decline from 2020, which would be the first decline in annual average natural gas production since 2016.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. working natural gas inventories ended January at more than 2.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 9% higher than the five-year (2015–19) average. EIA forecasts that total working inventories will end March at almost 2.0 Tcf, 14% higher than the five-year average. In the forecast, inventories rise by a total of 2.1 Tcf during the April through October injection season to reach almost 4.1 Tcf on October 31, which would be the highest end-of-October inventory level on record.

Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will remain relatively steady; it was 37% in 2019, and EIA forecasts it will be 38% in 2020 and 37% in 2021. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources will rise from a share of 17% last year to 20% in 2020 and 21% in 2021. The increase in the renewables share is the result of expected use of additions to wind and solar generating capacity. Coal’s forecast share of electricity generation will fall from 24% in 2019 to 21% in both 2020 and 2021. The nuclear share of generation, which averaged slightly more than 20% in 2019 will be slightly lower than 20% by 2021, consistent with upcoming reactor retirements.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. Lower production reflects declining demand for coal in the electric power sector and lower demand for U.S. exports. EIA forecasts that electric power sector demand for coal will fall by 81 MMst (15%) in 2020. EIA expects that coal production will stabilize in 2021 as export demand stabilizes and U.S. power sector demand for coal increases because of rising natural gas prices.
  • After decreasing by 2.3% in 2019, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 2.7% in 2020 and by 0.5% in 2021. Declining emissions in 2020 reflect forecast declines in total U.S. energy consumption because of increases in energy efficiency and weather effects, particularly as a result of warmer-than-normal January temperatures. A forecast return to normal temperatures in 2021 results in a slowing decline in emissions. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
February, 12 2020