Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 12 November 2018 – Brent: US$71/b; WTI: US$60/b

• Crude prices continue their retreat from recent highs, as a bear market engulfed sentiment last week over fears of oversupply from frantic OPEC+ pumping offsetting the loss of Iranian crude volumes, which itself was mitigated by the US handing out waivers to eight key crude importers
• After stating that OPEC was in a ‘pump as much as you can’ mode, the quick fall in prices has caused alarm across the cartel, with Saudi Arabia reversing gear to curb its exports by 500,000 b/d in December to shore up prices
• With the OPEC meeting in Vienna imminent, it is possible that a new output cut agreement could be reached within OPEC+, to counter an oversupply situation stemming from declining demand, as well as surging US shale production – which will rise to a record 7.94 mmb/d across seven major shale basins in December, according to the EIA
• However, beyond Saudi Arabia, there is not much appetite within the OPEC+ alliance to reduce output, with Iraq happy with its record production and Russia dismissing the oversupply situation as a ‘seasonal glitch’
• Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut its oil production was criticised by US President Donald Trump, stung by losses in midterm elections that Trump chalks up to, in part, high fuel prices
• News that Saudi Arabia was researching the topic of breaking up OPEC rattled the markets, but the Kingdom moved to quash rumours as Aramco raised the pricing for its medium and heavy crudes sold to Asia
• Despite this, trends have turned bearish for crude prices over this week, propelled by large jumps in US crude output and worries over a global economic slowdown, particularly in China; Brent and WTI fell by over US$4/b on Tuesday alone, falling below the US$70/b and US$60/b levels again
• After several weeks of caution, US drillers added 14 new rigs this week – up by 12 oil rigs and 2 gas rigs to 1,081 in total – with the most gains once again coming from the prolific Permian Basin
• Crude price outlook: After the large drop on Tuesday, crude prices appear to have stabilised somewhat around the US$65-66/b level for Brent and the US$55-56/b level for WTI

Headlines of the week

Upstream

• Another setback for TransCanada’s beleaguered Keystone XL pipeline, as a judge in Montana halted the project over two lawsuits filed asserting that its environmental impact assessment required further review
• Phillips 66 and Bridger Pipeline are launching two new crude pipelines connecting Rockies and Bakken oil to the Texas Gulf Coast; the Liberty Pipeline will carry 350 kb/d from Bakken/Rockies to Corpus Christi, while the 400 kb/d Red Oak Pipeline connects Corpus Christi to Houston
• Magellan Midstream Partners is looking to build a new pipeline connecting Cushing to Houston, with the 250 kb/d Voyager pipeline targeted at end-2020
• The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq has increased capacity of its oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, Turkey, from 700,000 b/d to 1 mmb/d
• After previously fleeing from Canadian oil sands, ExxonMobil is investing again, with its Imperial Oil unit earmarking some US$2 billion for the new Aspen project in northern Alberta
• Senrica Energy continues its buying spree in the North Sea, acquiring Marubeni Oil & Gas’ 3.75% and 8.33% interest in the Bruce and Keith fields
• ADNOC is implementing a comprehensive hydrocarbons strategy that will increase its crude output capacity to 4 mmb/d by 2020 and 5 mmb/d by 2030
• Croatia has launched the country’s second onshore licensing round, offering seven blocks in the prolific Pannonian basin
• Eni and Lukoil have signed a farm-out deal, transferring participating interests in three shallow-water offshore Mexican licenses, including Area 10, 12 and 14
• Buoyed by recent gas successes, Israel has announced its second offshore licensing round, offering up 19 blocks in its southern waters
• Senegal is overhauling its own code, with plans to raise royalties and have the state take a bigger stake in projects after a string of major discoveries
• CNOOC is kickstarting a development drive aimed at eking out additional volumes from several marginal fields in Bohai Bay and the South China Sea

Downstream

• Nigeria’s ambitious overhaul of its state-owned refineries has been pushed back to end-2019 over slow progress in NNPC’s attempt to seek joint financing
• NNPC is looking to sign crude-for-product swap deals with Shell and ExxonMobil, after signing one with BP, to acquire crude for its refineries
• France is pushing ahead with its attempt to introduce a new fuel tax, despite a series of major blockades and protests planned to oppose the measure

Natural Gas/LNG

• Total and Sempra Energy have signed a new MoU on LNG cooperation, covering the Cameron LNG in Louisiana, USA and Energía Costa Azul in Baja California, Mexico, with Total potentially taking up to 9 mtpa of LNG for its global portfolio from both projects
• Cuadrilla has had first shale gas flow at its exploration well in the UK’s Preston New Road site, sparking optimism for the commercialisation of Bowland Shale
• Croatia has picked Golar Power to deliver an FSRU for a planned floating LNG terminal in the northern Adriatic Sea
• Tellurian confirms that construction on its Driftwood LNG terminal Louisiana will begin in 2H2019, which operations planned to begin in 2023
• Japan’s Toshiba Corp is exiting the US LNG business, selling off its assets to China’s ENN Ecological Holdings for over US$800 million

It seems to have been a topic that has been discussed for years, but a decision could finally be made. The Philippines has short-listed three different groups who are in the running to build the country’s first LNG import terminal, whittling them down from an initial 18 that submitted project proposals. The final three consist of the Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC), a joint venture between Tokyo Gas and domestic firm First Gen Corp and China’s CNOOC. The Philippines hopes to choose the final group by the end of November – an optimistic decision that belies that many, many complications that have come before.

First of all, the make-up of only one of the groups has been finalised. A local partner is a requirement for this project; CNOOC has yet to officially tie-up, although it has been talking to Manila-based Phoenix Petroleum, while state oil firm PNOC does not have a (deep-pocketed) partner yet. Firms including Chevron, Dubai’s Lloyds Energy Group and Japan’s JERA have reportedly contacted PNOC to express their interest, but a month before the Philippines wants to make a decision, its own home-grown hero hasn’t yet got its ducks lined up in a row.

And time is of essence. The once giant Malampaya gas field is running out of resources. Supplying piped natural gas to three power plants that feeds some 45% of Luzon’s electricity requirements, the Shell-operated field is expected to be completely depleted by 2024. With the country aiming to move away from burning coal or (imported) gasoil for power, gas is needed to replace gas. Even though the Philippines is pushing for a bilateral agreement with China to pave to way for joint exploration activities in disputed areas of the South China Sea – to the consternation of its citizens – any discovery in the Palawan basin or Scarborough Shoal will be years from commercialisation.

So LNG is the answer. And LNG has been the answer since 2008, when the need for an LNG import terminal was first identified. And it is not like no projects have been proposed – Australia’s Energy World Corp (EWC) has been wanting to build an LNG receiving terminal and power station in the Quezon province near Manila for years, but the project has been described as ‘trapped in a bureaucratic quagmire’ due to hurdles from various government agencies, or stymied by groups with competing interests.

PNOC itself has been wanting to build its own terminal in Batangas, within range of existing gas and power transmission facilities currently drawing Malampaya gas. But, just like Pertamina in Indonesia, it is cash-strapped and unable to drive the project on its own, hence the requirement for a partner/s. First Gen Corp and Phoenix Petroleum are both private players, with First Gen already operating four of the country’s five gas-fired plants while Phoenix Petroleum has close ties with CNOOC Gas.

Many announcements have been made and gone, but with this shortlist of three groups, it does finally look like the Philippines will be able to get its LNG ambitions of the ground. And it is thinking even bigger; wanting the terminal to become a LNG trading hub for the region – capitalising on the existing habit of ship-to-ship transfers of LNG cargoes into smaller parcels in the Philippine waters for delivery into southern China – challenging existing ambitions in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. But perhaps that is getting a bit ahead of themselves. Getting a project – any LNG project – off the ground is the first priority. And the rest can come after that.

Other Proposed LNG Projects In The Philippines:

• Shell’s LNG import terminal in Batangas, near the Shell Batangas refinery
• Glencore’s FSRU project, connected to an onshore power plant
• South Korea’s SK Group’s 5 mtpa LNG import terminal in Luzon
• Energy World Corp’s integrated LNG-power project in Quezon