Dear Members, Associates and Friends of the Malaysian Gas Association,
Ladies & Gentlemen,
As we usher in the new year, I am excited with developments achieved in the Malaysian gas industry. The gas industry reforms remains on track. The grace period for the Third Party Access ends in January 2018 and the regulated gas price is projected to achieve market price by 2019. Malaysia is well underway advancing towards a sustainable gas industry.
Looking back to 2017, MGA is proud to gain further recognition of our role as the voice of the gas industry when we were appointed into both the steering and technical committees for the national Gas Price Rationalisation Communication Plan, led by the Economic Planning Unit (EPU). MGA will be playing an active role in communicating the benefits of the gas industry reforms to key stakeholders, providing perspective as an industry representative.
2017 has been quite a busy and eventful year for MGA. Our priorities for 2017 has been the following;
2.Enhancing Value Proposition for Members
We stepped up our Gas Advocacy with more engagements with policy makers, series of interviews and articles in the newspapers, face to face engagements at our booths in major exhibitions and media launch of the report on “Natural Gas: Flipping the Switch’. We ended the year with a “Gas Advocacy Series” campaign on social media.
In addition to gas advocacy, MGA members benefited from the multiple networking platforms established by MGA. We continued our annual networking events, namely the Industry Golf and Industry Gala Dinner, and have increased members activities with more industry talks, a technical visit to RAPID in Pengerang and a CSR intiative in the form of a Blood Donation Drive. We also kept members regularly informed through the newly introduced Quarterly bulletins. This in addition to the regular updates via e-mails and posts on our webpage and social media.
On the international front, as part of the Executive Committee, MGA plays a key role in charting the direction of the International Gas Union (IGU). IGU have similarly stepped up Gas Advocacy on the global arena, engaging global bodies such as United Nation, G20, World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA). 2017 also saw the election of the first Women President of IGU. Ms. Li Yalan will be the first woman to lead IGU when China assumes the Presidency of IGU for the Triennium 2021-2014. Her appointment gives encouragement for more active participation by women in the energy sector, especially in leadership positions.
Likewise, MGA recognised the importance of women in the energy sector when we organised the inaugural Forum in Women in Energy; an event supported by women networks in member companies.
In 2017, MGA continued our outreach to students in schools and higher learning institutions. We are delighted to share that several schools and universities found our outreach so beneficial that they have invited us to collaborate.
2017 is also the year of collaborations for MGA. In addition to universities, MGA collaborated with other organisations, such as MOGSC, 30% Club and PEMANDU, and with MGA’s own member companies to organised major events.
We are extremely grateful for the support and contribution from our members throughout 2017. We are particularly appreciative of the efforts put in by the following working committees;
•Regulatory and Government Affairs
•Learning and Development
•Communications and Multimedia
•Membership and Social
the taskforce on Promotion of Cogeneration and the respective organising committees for our major events. Your commitment and contributions ensured the success of our activities. On average, we have organised 2 events or major activities per month, more than what we have achieved in the previous years.
Going into 2018, we expect our priorities to remain. We will be stepping up our Gas Advocacy even further with more advocacy related activities, more communication and more engagements with the media.
The country needs to increase utilisation and demand for gas in order to make the market more attractive to third party gas suppliers. MGA has proposed to collaborate with Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers (FMM) to jointly promote cogeneration and will be collaborating with PEMANDU Associates to organise an “Increasing Gas Demand” workshop.
2018 will also see IGU organising the World Gas Conference (WGC2018) in Washington DC, USA. We urged members to participate in this prestigious triannual congregation of global gas industry players. WGC2018 will be expecting 500 speakers and 12,000 participants.
Before I sign-off, I would like to take the opportunity to congratulate and thank the MGA Secretariat for their keen dedication and oustanding efforts.
On behalf of the Council of MGA, I close by again thanking all our members, including all the volunteers from members organisations, for your keen support and participation in all our activities. We look forward to similar support in the coming year.
I wish everyone a happy and successful 2018.
Hazli Sham Kassim
Malaysian Gas Association
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The constant domestic fighting in Libya – a civil war, to call a spade a spade, has taken a toll on the once-prolific oil production in the North African country. After nearly a decade of turmoil, it appears now that the violent clash between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli and the upstart insurgent Libyan National Army (LNA) forces could be ameliorating into something less destructive with the announcement of a pact between the two sides that would to some normalisation of oil production and exports.
A quick recap. Since the 2011 uprising that ended the rule of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been in a state of perpetual turmoil. Led by General Khalifa Haftar and the remnants of loyalists that fought under Gaddafi’s full-green flag, the Libyan National Army stands in direct opposition to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) that was formed in 2015. Caught between the two sides are the Libyan people and Libya’s oilfields. Access to key oilfields and key port facilities has changed hands constantly over the past few years, resulting in a start-stop rhythm that has sapped productivity and, more than once, forced Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) to issue force majeure on its exports. Libya’s largest producing field, El Sharara, has had to stop production because of Haftar’s militia aggression no fewer than four times in the past four years. At one point, all seven of Libya’s oil ports – including Zawiyah (350 kb/d), Es Sider (360 kb/d) and Ras Lanuf (230 kb/d) were blockaded as pipelines ran dry. For a country that used to produce an average of 1.2 mmb/d of crude oil, currently output stands at only 80,000 b/d and exports considerably less. Gaddafi might have been an abhorrent strongman, but political stability can have its pros.
This mutually-destructive impasse, economically, at least might be lifted, at least partially, if the GNA and LNA follow through with their agreement to let Libyan oil flow again. The deal, brokered in Moscow between the warlord Haftar and Vice President of the Libyan Presidential Council Ahmed Maiteeq calls for the ‘unrestrained’ resumption of crude oil production that has been at a near standstill since January 2020. The caveat because there always is one, is that Haftar demanded that oil revenues be ‘distributed fairly’ in order to lift the blockade he has initiated across most of the country’s upstream infrastructure.
Shortly after the announcement of the deal, the NOC announced that it would kick off restarting oil production and exports, lifting an 8-month force majeure situation, but only at ‘secure terminals and facilities’. ‘Secure’ in this cases means facilities and fields where NOC has full control, but will exclude areas and assets that the LNA rebels still have control. That’s a significant limitation, since the LNA, which includes support from local tribal groups and Russian mercenaries still controls key oilfields and terminals. But it is also a softening from the NOC, which had previously stated that it would only return to operations when all rebels had left all facilities, citing safety of its staff.
If the deal moves forward, it would certainly be an improvement to the major economic crisis faced by Libya, where cash flow has dried up and basic utilities face severe cutbacks. But it is still an ‘if’. Many within the GNA sphere are critical of the deal struck by Maiteeq, claiming that it did not involve the consultation or input of his allies. The current GNA leader, Prime Minister Fayyaz al Sarraj is also stepping down at the end of October, ushering in another political sea change that could affect the deal. Haftar is a mercurial beast, so predictions are difficult, but what is certain is that depriving a country of its chief moneymaker is a recipe for disaster on all sides. Which is why the deal will probably go ahead.
Which is bad news for the OPEC+ club. Because of its precarious situation, Libya has been exempt for the current OPEC+ supply deal. Even the best case scenarios within OPEC+ had factored out Libya, given the severe uncertainty of the situation there. But if the deal goes through and holds, it could potentially add a significant amount of restored crude supply to global markets at a time when OPEC+ itself is struggling to manage the quotas within its own, from recalcitrant members like Iraq to surprising flouters like the UAE.
Mathematically at least, the ceiling for restored Libyan production is likely in the 300-400,000 b/d range, given that Haftar is still in control of the main fields and ports. That does not seem like much, but it will give cause for dissent within OPEC on the exemption of Libya from the supply deal. Libya will resist being roped into the supply deal, and it has justification to do so. But freeing those Libyan volumes into a world market that is already suffering from oversupply and weak prices will be undermining in nature. The equation has changed, and the Libyan situation can no longer be taken for granted.
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According to 2018 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for newly constructed utility-scale electric generators in the United States, annual capacity-weighted average construction costs for solar photovoltaic systems and onshore wind turbines have continued to decrease. Natural gas generator costs also decreased slightly in 2018.
From 2013 to 2018, costs for solar fell 50%, costs for wind fell 27%, and costs for natural gas fell 13%. Together, these three generation technologies accounted for more than 98% of total capacity added to the electricity grid in the United States in 2018. Investment in U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2018 increased by 9.3% from 2017, driven by natural gas capacity additions.
The average construction cost for solar photovoltaic generators is higher than wind and natural gas generators on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis, although the gap is narrowing as the cost of solar falls rapidly. From 2017 to 2018, the average construction cost of solar in the United States fell 21% to $1,848 per kilowatt (kW). The decrease was driven by falling costs for crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels, which were at their lowest average construction cost of $1,767 per kW in 2018.
Crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels—which accounted for more than one-third of the solar capacity added in the United States in 2018, at 1.7 gigawatts (GW)—had the second-highest share of solar capacity additions by technology. Crystalline silicon axis-based tracking panels had the highest share, with 2.0 GW (41% of total solar capacity additions) of added generating capacity at an average cost of $1,834 per kW.
Total U.S. wind capacity additions increased 18% from 2017 to 2018 as the average construction cost for wind turbines dropped 16% to $1,382 per kW. All wind farm size classes had lower average construction costs in 2018. The largest decreases were at wind farms with 1 megawatt (MW) to 25 MW of capacity; construction costs at these farms decreased by 22.6% to $1,790 per kW.
Compared with other generation technologies, natural gas technologies received the highest U.S. investment in 2018, accounting for 46% of total capacity additions for all energy sources. Growth in natural gas electric-generating capacity was led by significant additions in new capacity from combined-cycle facilities, which almost doubled the previous year’s additions for that technology. Combined-cycle technology construction costs dropped by 4% in 2018 to $858 per kW.
Fossil fuels, or energy sources formed in the Earth’s crust from decayed organic material, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal, continue to account for the largest share of energy production and consumption in the United States. In 2019, 80% of domestic energy production was from fossil fuels, and 80% of domestic energy consumption originated from fossil fuels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the U.S. total energy flow diagram to visualize U.S. energy from primary energy supply (production and imports) to disposition (consumption, exports, and net stock additions). In this diagram, losses that take place when primary energy sources are converted into electricity are allocated proportionally to the end-use sectors. The result is a visualization that associates the primary energy consumed to generate electricity with the end-use sectors of the retail electricity sales customers, even though the amount of electric energy end users directly consumed was significantly less.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
The share of U.S. total energy production from fossil fuels peaked in 1966 at 93%. Total fossil fuel production has continued to rise, but production has also risen for non-fossil fuel sources such as nuclear power and renewables. As a result, fossil fuels have accounted for about 80% of U.S. energy production in the past decade.
Since 2008, U.S. production of crude oil, dry natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) has increased by 15 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), 14 quads, and 4 quads, respectively. These increases have more than offset decreasing coal production, which has fallen 10 quads since its peak in 2008.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
In 2019, U.S. energy production exceeded energy consumption for the first time since 1957, and U.S. energy exports exceeded energy imports for the first time since 1952. U.S. energy net imports as a share of consumption peaked in 2005 at 30%. Although energy net imports fell below zero in 2019, many regions of the United States still import significant amounts of energy.
Most U.S. energy trade is from petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products), which accounted for 69% of energy exports and 86% of energy imports in 2019. Much of the imported crude oil is processed by U.S. refineries and is then exported as petroleum products. Petroleum products accounted for 42% of total U.S. energy exports in 2019.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
The share of U.S. total energy consumption that originated from fossil fuels has fallen from its peak of 94% in 1966 to 80% in 2019. The total amount of fossil fuels consumed in the United States has also fallen from its peak of 86 quads in 2007. Since then, coal consumption has decreased by 11 quads. In 2019, renewable energy consumption in the United States surpassed coal consumption for the first time. The decrease in coal consumption, along with a 3-quad decrease in petroleum consumption, more than offset an 8-quad increase in natural gas consumption.
EIA previously published articles explaining the energy flows of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. More information about total energy consumption, production, trade, and emissions is available in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.
Principal contributor: Bill Sanchez