Far from slipping into correction mode, crude made a dash for new peaks this week. Brent flirted with the $70/barrel mark, while WTI topped $64 in intra-day trade Thursday. Both hit resistance and retreated, but still settled at fresh three-year highs.
They were back-pedalling again Friday, but only marginally, compared with their spectacular cumulative rise of a little over 20% in the past three months alone.
The market remains split between those calling for a correction and those betting on continued strength.
It is worth noting that the calls are for a market correction, not a crash. A correction is typically a 10-20% retracement from the 52-week high. A drop of more than 20% would be called a crash and bear market territory.
Thus, a correction in Brent from the current levels would be a pullback of between $7 and $14, giving us a range of $56-63/barrel.
Based on the current expectations and variables in the 2018 oil market, we regard the lower end of that range as unrealistic. The exceptions would be an unanticipated large jump in US shale output or a major dent in global oil consumption due to an economic slowdown or price elasticity of demand, all tail risks at this point.
We don’t expect OPEC’s cohesion on output cuts to break down amid higher prices and are factoring in a smooth, well-managed “exit” from the restraint strategy along with non-OPEC collaborators sometime after 2018.
Brent’s descent to the upper end of the correction band, the low- to mid-$60s, is possible, but may need a bearish jolt, for example data showing a big build in global oil stocks or a sharp drop in demand over the winter months. Again, neither of those events are a high probability.
Meanwhile, a severe La Nina winter unfolding in the northern hemisphere is likely to keep crude market sentiment buoyant in view of the seasonal oil demand peak, at least through February. It makes a sell-off more difficult.
The gradual erosion of some of the fear premium that has been layered into crude prices over the past several months is a possibility. But we see the various geopolitical tensions that have spurred successive price upticks, including the ones that have not caused any oil supply disruptions, an allor-none factor: the lingering presence of even one keeps the whole bunch top of mind. Increasingly, the cloud hanging over Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal appears to be that one worry.
Always wanted to understand the mechanics of oil pricing, but didn’t know where to begin? Now explained succinctly and simply on the 27 March in Singapore. This short course is a primer on how global benchmark oil prices are set and how that information percolates down to the price tag at the petrol pump or on your LPG cylinder.
What Determines the Price of Oil: https://goo.gl/fz3YrL
Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today
Oil and gas sector is one of the most lucrative sectors for job seekers from industries all over the world. It offers great salaries and benefits packages and an opportunity to travel and work overseas. Due to its high demand, scammers are preying on the vulnerable oil and gas workers. To ensure you don’t fall prey to their mischievous tactics, we would recommend reading our guideline below:
How does scamming occur?
The scammer poses as an employer or recruiter of an oil and gas company or he may claim to be an employee or recruiter for a job consultancy firm catering to the oil and gas industry. They offer irresistible employment opportunities and often demand money in advance to conduct further processes. Money is often demanded on the pretext of work visas, travel expenses, background or credit checks that the job requires.
What do scammers want from you?
It is important to understand what the scammer's agenda is so that it helps you shield yourself from getting conned:
To extract money: On the pretext of getting you a job in the energy sector employing any of the tactics mentioned above
For identity theft: scammers look for valid identity of people and ask for confidential personal details including bank details to commit fraud through your name or to withdraw money from your account.
Whatever be their modus operandi, their goal is to either separate you from your cash or accomplish an identity theft. The bigger problem is, the scammers are getting better at their game and coming up with innovative ideas to lure innocent job seekers. In oil and gas industry, the scammers are targeting the job seekers from overseas, immigrants or contractors as they feel it is easier to attract them on the pretext of work permits, high salaries, paid travel, better lifestyle in the first world countries.
How to spot a job scam and keep yourself secure?
There is always a difference between real and fake, all you need to do is be watchful to notice the underlying discrepancies. There is a pattern that scammers usually follows, which is discussed below. Make sure you watch out for these red flags when you receive any job offer next time:
Free email provider - No legitimate hiring agency or company will use the services of free email provider like Gmail, Hotmail, or Yahoo. So, if you are receiving an email or have been requested to share your details on emails that use free email services, then be extremely cautious. The scammers try to trick the job seekers by using an email address that looks authentic for instance: [email protected]. It is important to notice here that the ‘xyz’ part of the email ID is usually a gmail, yahoo, etc. which is a free email address. A legitimate job provider would never use.
Fake or new company name - If company name or oil and gas recruitment agency name is mentioned along with the free email id, then do a quick search on the company. Verify its existence and contact them via official email address and contact numbers mentioned on the website. Check their social media presence too. If the website and social media page look new while the company claims to be in business for a substantial amount of time, know for sure that there is something fishy.
Bad grammar and confusing job details - The scammers usually do not pay much attention to structure the mail. You can spot grammatical errors and even the job descriptions are not explained well or is completely different than your skillset and experience. Any authentic mail from a company or oil and gas recruitment agency will ensure an error-free, concise, and clear communication
Fee to conduct a job interview - No legitimate oil and gas company or recruitment agency will ever ask for money to conduct a job interview or to apply to job positions. If the mail says, the money will be refunded once you appear for a job interview, then please do not trust such claims as it is always bogus.
Asking for confidential personal information - Anyone asking for information that you will never put on CV, is a warning sign. It includes your bank details, passport copy, identity cards, your current residential details and so on. No genuine company will ever ask for such details before you sign the offer letter. If by chance, you have shared your bank details or another confidential detail to the scammer, contact your bank and email service provider and register a complaint against it.
Unknown source - There are countries who have strict spam rules and until you subscribe or give consent to the company, they cannot send you emails. So, if you receive an email from a company you haven’t contacted or have not applied for jobs, then be cautious it might be a scam.
The principle on which scammers operate is “Too good to be true”. Don’t entertain any job offer that offers a position, you are not qualified for or offers a salary which is unrealistically high. In the oil and gas sector, be careful not to reveal your passport/work visa details to the scammer. Remember, if you find anything which is way beyond the realistic expectations, then trust your instincts and drop the offer and do not respond.
See our infographic below for a quick summarized glance -
If you are looking for a job in the Energy sector then sign up today to stay updated with the latest industry news, apply for jobs and network - https://www.nrgedge.net/jobs
Searching for the right talent is often a tedious chore for the HR. However, with technological improvements, the usage of app-based recruitment has increased manifold. Recruiters and job seekers are increasingly adopting this new method. A mobile application simplifies the labor-intensive and time-consuming recruitment task and comes loaded with features that help to automate the recruitment cycle. For all the good, app-based approach can do, it still comes under fire from the critics. Here's our take on the pros & cons of App-based talent search.