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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 15 January 2017 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b

  • After a strong week, oil prices reversed course as concerns that a correction is imminently due, after a major crude-buying spree by hedge funds last week.
  • There are also fears that the strength in oil prices could cause OPEC to revise its supply freeze plan far earlier than expected, but several OPEC oil ministers have urged the group to ‘stay the course.’
  • Supply disruptions in Libya and unrest in Iran have largely died down, removing output concerns over crude price equations.
  • With WTI prices above US$60/b, more interest in shale has emerged, but the industry warms that it is facing a tight labour and supply chain market. Indications are that shale players have also not been adding significantly more drills, instead electing to ‘do more with less’.
  • Larger-than-expected drops in the US crude inventory levels have also supported strong crude prices, but the EIA is also reporting significant gains in gasoline and fuel stocks.
  • The EIA maintains that US crude production will rise over 2018, hitting 11 mmb/d by 2019. The target for Q118 is 10.4 mmb/d.
  • However, there are warning signs in Asia, where Singaporean refining margins slumped to under US$6/b last week, down 90% from the 2017 high. With huge supply coming out of China as well, the Asian fuels glut could see a major correction this year, impacting crude demand.
  • Active US oil and gas rig sites jumped by 15 last week, with onshore shale gains leading the way. Canadian rigs jumped by a massive 102 sites, a 10-month high as drillers returned en masse from the Christmas/New Year break.
  • Crude price outlook: Oil prices should ease back from recent highs as correction sets in, but still maintain around US$67-68 for Brent and US$61-62/b for WTI.


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • After President Donald Trump moved to open up almost all US offshore waters to oil/gas drilling, at least 12 American states are applying for exclusion from the plan, after Florida was granted an exemption.
  • Premier Oil has announced plans to triple production at the North Sea Cather field to 60,000 b/d within the first half of 2018.
  • With repairs on the Forties Pipeline System completed successfully, the affected Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields have all resumed production.
  • The first Norwegian drilling licence of 2018 has been handed out, as Norway stands caught between expanding its upstream industry and its environmental lobby. Lundin Norway AS received the permit for well 16/4-11 in the central part of the North Sea, the fifth well in the area.
  • ExxonMobil’s streak in Guyana continues, as it announced a ‘home run’ offshore finding in the Stabroek Block (also claimed by Venezuela), which is its sixth major finding since drilling began in 2015.

Downstream

  • India’s oil consumption grew by the slowest pace in four years, with oil product demand growing by only 2.3%, hit by a tax increase and the government’s demonetisation drive. Gasoline demand was up 7.4%, as was gasoil, but both were capped by rising retail prices. Naptha, jet fuel and kerosene were all sharply down, with only LPG as a bright spot.
  • State group Sinoche and private chemical giant Hengli Group have signed an agreement to cooperated on crude/fuel trading and marketing, with Hengli expecting to start its 400 kb/d Dalian refinery this year.
  • Fairfax Africa Fund and multiple (undisclosed) Asian partners are planning a US$4 billion, 120 kb/d oil refinery in Ethiopia in Awash.
  • The Curacao drama continues. After been rejected by the state government for its high levels of debt, China’s Guangdong Zhenrong Energy has tapped the private Baota Petrochemical Group to assist in its plan to operate the aging Isla refinery in the Caribbean.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • The USA has officially become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time since 1957, as the EIA data showed net exports averaging at 400 mmcf/d in 2017, boosted by piped gas to Mexico and LNG shipments.
  • Australia’s LNG exports in 2017 hit a record high of 56.8 mtpa, boosted by the startup of major projects and strong demand from Japan and China.
  • Beach Energy has struck gas at Haselgrove-3 ST1, in the onshore Otway Basin in South Australia. Initial flow indications are at some 25 mcf/d.  
  • Indonesia will be opening a tender this year for three natural gas pipelines connecting the Natuna fields to Borneo, landing in West Kalimantan and continuing onshore to South Kalimantan. The tender is worth an estimated US$1.1 billion, and could break up the current gas pipeline duopoly held by Pertamina and PGN.

Corporate

Just after recently after selling its US oil trading business to Vitol, the Noble Group is shutting down its London oil trading desk and winding down its Asian trading operations as its battles heavy losses and debt.

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