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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 15 January 2017 – Brent: US$69/b; WTI: US$63/b

  • After a strong week, oil prices reversed course as concerns that a correction is imminently due, after a major crude-buying spree by hedge funds last week.
  • There are also fears that the strength in oil prices could cause OPEC to revise its supply freeze plan far earlier than expected, but several OPEC oil ministers have urged the group to ‘stay the course.’
  • Supply disruptions in Libya and unrest in Iran have largely died down, removing output concerns over crude price equations.
  • With WTI prices above US$60/b, more interest in shale has emerged, but the industry warms that it is facing a tight labour and supply chain market. Indications are that shale players have also not been adding significantly more drills, instead electing to ‘do more with less’.
  • Larger-than-expected drops in the US crude inventory levels have also supported strong crude prices, but the EIA is also reporting significant gains in gasoline and fuel stocks.
  • The EIA maintains that US crude production will rise over 2018, hitting 11 mmb/d by 2019. The target for Q118 is 10.4 mmb/d.
  • However, there are warning signs in Asia, where Singaporean refining margins slumped to under US$6/b last week, down 90% from the 2017 high. With huge supply coming out of China as well, the Asian fuels glut could see a major correction this year, impacting crude demand.
  • Active US oil and gas rig sites jumped by 15 last week, with onshore shale gains leading the way. Canadian rigs jumped by a massive 102 sites, a 10-month high as drillers returned en masse from the Christmas/New Year break.
  • Crude price outlook: Oil prices should ease back from recent highs as correction sets in, but still maintain around US$67-68 for Brent and US$61-62/b for WTI.


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • After President Donald Trump moved to open up almost all US offshore waters to oil/gas drilling, at least 12 American states are applying for exclusion from the plan, after Florida was granted an exemption.
  • Premier Oil has announced plans to triple production at the North Sea Cather field to 60,000 b/d within the first half of 2018.
  • With repairs on the Forties Pipeline System completed successfully, the affected Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields have all resumed production.
  • The first Norwegian drilling licence of 2018 has been handed out, as Norway stands caught between expanding its upstream industry and its environmental lobby. Lundin Norway AS received the permit for well 16/4-11 in the central part of the North Sea, the fifth well in the area.
  • ExxonMobil’s streak in Guyana continues, as it announced a ‘home run’ offshore finding in the Stabroek Block (also claimed by Venezuela), which is its sixth major finding since drilling began in 2015.

Downstream

  • India’s oil consumption grew by the slowest pace in four years, with oil product demand growing by only 2.3%, hit by a tax increase and the government’s demonetisation drive. Gasoline demand was up 7.4%, as was gasoil, but both were capped by rising retail prices. Naptha, jet fuel and kerosene were all sharply down, with only LPG as a bright spot.
  • State group Sinoche and private chemical giant Hengli Group have signed an agreement to cooperated on crude/fuel trading and marketing, with Hengli expecting to start its 400 kb/d Dalian refinery this year.
  • Fairfax Africa Fund and multiple (undisclosed) Asian partners are planning a US$4 billion, 120 kb/d oil refinery in Ethiopia in Awash.
  • The Curacao drama continues. After been rejected by the state government for its high levels of debt, China’s Guangdong Zhenrong Energy has tapped the private Baota Petrochemical Group to assist in its plan to operate the aging Isla refinery in the Caribbean.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • The USA has officially become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time since 1957, as the EIA data showed net exports averaging at 400 mmcf/d in 2017, boosted by piped gas to Mexico and LNG shipments.
  • Australia’s LNG exports in 2017 hit a record high of 56.8 mtpa, boosted by the startup of major projects and strong demand from Japan and China.
  • Beach Energy has struck gas at Haselgrove-3 ST1, in the onshore Otway Basin in South Australia. Initial flow indications are at some 25 mcf/d.  
  • Indonesia will be opening a tender this year for three natural gas pipelines connecting the Natuna fields to Borneo, landing in West Kalimantan and continuing onshore to South Kalimantan. The tender is worth an estimated US$1.1 billion, and could break up the current gas pipeline duopoly held by Pertamina and PGN.

Corporate

Just after recently after selling its US oil trading business to Vitol, the Noble Group is shutting down its London oil trading desk and winding down its Asian trading operations as its battles heavy losses and debt.

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U.S. coal production employment has fallen 42% since 2011

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Coal Report shows that coal mining employment has declined in the past decade as coal demand has decreased. Most U.S. coal is consumed in the electric power sector and has faced increased competition from electricity generation from natural gas and renewable technologies. U.S. coal mining employment fell from a high of 92,000 employees in 2011 to 54,000 employees in 2018, with the most dramatic decrease in the Appalachian region.

Annual U.S. coal production peaked in 2008, three years before coal mining employment reached its record high. In 2008, the United States produced 1.2 billion tons of coal from 1,458 mines. Since then, coal production has fallen and many mines have closed: in 2018, U.S. coal production was 756 million tons from 679 mines. As was the case with employment, much of coal’s production decline was concentrated in the Appalachian region. More than half of the region’s mines have closed since 2008, and production has fallen from 390 million tons in 2008 to 200 million tons in 2018.

U.S. coal production by region

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Coal Report

Appalachian mines tend to be smaller than mines in the Interior and Western regions and to use labor-intensive underground mining techniques, as opposed to machinery-intensive longwall mining and surface mining operations. A slight increase in coal mining employment in the Appalachia region from 2016 to 2018 corresponded to an increase in coal exports because this region is the dominant source of coal shipped overseas.

The decline in operating mines has been steeper than the changes in employment and production. EIA’s review of operating mines showed that smaller mines have had greater difficulty competing in the current market and have been the first to close.

U.S. coal mining labor productivity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Coal Report

As smaller, less productive mines were idled or closed, overall coal labor productivity, measured in tons per labor hour, gradually increased from 5.2 tons per labor hour in 2011 to 6.2 tons per labor hour in 2018. The large surface mines in the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming and Montana have much higher productivity, but even PRB productivity has declined as the region’s producing coal seams become deeper and the amount of overburden, or top soil and rock above the coal seam, increases.

In contrast, the Appalachia and Interior regions both have shown improvements in labor productivity between 2011 and 2018, largely because they are increasingly relying on less labor-intensive longwall and highwall mining systems and closing or idling the least productive mines.

Data from EIA’s Annual Coal Report are available in EIA’s Coal Data Browser. In addition to data from the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration, EIA’s Annual Coal Report also includes mine-level data from EIA’s Survey of Coal Production and Preparation and coal exports data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

December, 12 2019
This Week in Petroleum: With pipeline development, U.S. crude oil pipeline fill has increased by more than 60% since 2011
Crude oil held in pipelines (pipeline fill) in the United States grew from 75 million barrels in March 2011, the earliest data available, to nearly 124 million barrels in September 2019, a 64% increase, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity report (Figure 1). The increase is due to the significant expansion of the U.S. crude oil pipeline system over that period. Almost 97% of the 48 million barrel increase in crude oil pipeline fill, which includes some volumes of crude oil in transit via water and rail, occurred in the Gulf Coast (Petroleum Administration for Defense District, or PADD, 3) and the Midwest (PADD 2).

Figure 1. . Crude oil pipeline fill

Pipelines are the primary method of transporting crude oil in the United States. The increase in U.S. crude oil production in recent years has required the construction of new pipelines and reconfiguration of existing pipelines, including the conversion of natural gas pipelines to crude oil pipelines. The Gulf Coast region, which was responsible for 70% of the growth in U.S. crude oil production between 2010 and 2018, has experienced the largest pipeline buildout during that time period. The Permian Basin, covering West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, contributed the most to crude oil production growth and supported higher crude oil inventories in the region, including increased pipeline fill.

According to EIA’s Liquid Pipeline Projects Database, more than 100 crude oil pipeline projects were completed between March 2011 and September 2019. During this time, about 90% of projects were located in either the Gulf Coast or Midwest regions (Figure 2). The most prevalent project types were pipeline expansions and new pipeline builds. The vast majority of the projects were for transporting crude oil within their respective regions.

Figure 2. Crude oil pipeline projects (2nd Quarter 2011-3rd Quarter 2019)

Many pipeline expansions increased crude oil takeaway capacity from producing regions. For example, in 2018, Enterprise Products Partners L.P.’s 418-mile Midland-to-Echo 1 Pipeline System was placed into service to transport crude oil from the Permian Basin to locations near Houston, Texas. Other Permian Basin projects completed in 2018 included Plains All American’s Sunrise Pipeline Expansion and Enterprise Products Partners L.P.’s new Loving County Pipeline. The Sunrise Pipeline Expansion transports crude oil from the Permian region to Cushing, Oklahoma, and destinations in the Gulf Coast and the Loving County Pipeline transports crude oil from Permian Basin fields in New Mexico to Midland, Texas, a crude oil supply hub.

About 64% of crude oil production, 52% of U.S. petroleum refining capacity (measured by operable distillation capacity), and 52% of crude oil storage is located in the Gulf Coast (Figure 3). Rising Permian crude oil production decreased crude oil imports, and increased demand for crude oil at petroleum refineries have coincided with several projects aimed at increasing crude oil pipeline deliveries to Gulf Coast refineries. For example, the 264-mile Kinder Morgan Crude & Condensate Pipeline (KMCC), which includes a converted 109-mile natural gas pipeline, initiated deliveries of crude oil and condensate from the Eagle Ford region to Houston in 2012. Kinder Morgan later included a 27-mile lateral to Phillips 66’s refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. In 2014, TC Energy’s Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion was placed into service to supply refineries in Port Arthur, Texas.

Figure 3. Crude oil production, distillation capacity, and crude oil storage

In the Midwest, Cushing, Oklahoma—a key crude oil storage hub—has experienced significant increases in crude oil pipeline capacity as new crude oil tank farms were built to handle rising supplies. Crude oil working storage capacity in Cushing rose 59% between March 2011 and September 2019 to reach 76 million barrels. Cushing receives large volumes of crude oil by pipeline and rail from various areas such as Canada and the Rocky Mountains (PADD 4). For example, TC Energy’s 2014 expansion of the Keystone Pipeline transports crude oil that originated in Alberta, Canada, to Gulf Coast refineries via Cushing. Several additional pipeline projects that entered service between 2014 and 2018 were designed to move crude oil from the Rocky Mountains, which includes the Bakken formation, to Cushing.

Growing crude oil exports have also supported increases in crude oil pipeline capacity. The removal of restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports at the end of 2015, combined with higher crude oil production, allowed an increase in crude oil exports in the Gulf region, which grew from 3,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 1.8 million b/d in 2018. Petroleum terminals in the Gulf Coast that once imported large volumes of crude oil now load crude oil tankers for export to international destinations. Enterprise Products Partners L.P. recently completed an expansion to its Midland-to-Sealy Pipeline and conversion of its Seminole Red Pipeline to service the Enterprise Crude Houston (ECHO) terminal, a facility where shippers can load U.S. crude oil for export.

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices fall

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell more than 1 cent from the previous week to $2.56 per gallon on December 9, 14 cents higher than the same time last year. The West Coast price fell 7 cents to $3.34 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain price fell nearly 3 cents to $2.79 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price fell more than 2 cents to $2.20 per gallon. The East Coast and Midwest prices remained unchanged at $2.48 per gallon and $2.42 per gallon, respectively.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price fell more than 2 cents from the previous week to $3.05 per gallon on December 9, 11 cents lower than a year ago. The West Coast price fell by nearly 6 cents to $3.65 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain price fell by more than 3 cents to $3.21 gallon, the Gulf Coast price fell by 2 cents to $2.76 per gallon, the Midwest price fell by nearly 2 cents to $2.97 per gallon, and the East Coast price fell by nearly 1 cent to $3.05 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories rise

U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels last week to 93.5 million barrels as of December 6, 2019, 7.4 million barrels (8.6%) greater than the five-year (2014-18) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Midwest and East Coast inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels and 0.6 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.8% of total propane/propylene inventories.

Residential heating oil prices increase, propane prices decrease

As of December 9, 2019, residential heating oil prices averaged almost $3.02 per gallon, more than 1 cent per gallon above last week’s price but more than 18 cents per gallon below last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged nearly $2.07 per gallon, more than 2 cents per gallon higher than last week’s price and more than 7 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged more than $2.02 per gallon, almost 1 cent per gallon lower than last week’s price and nearly 42 cents per gallon less than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged more than $0.83 per gallon, more than 7 cents per gallon lower than last week’s price and nearly 8 cents per gallon below last year’s price.

December, 12 2019
Bioethanol Market to reach 68.95 Billion USD by 2022, Growing at a CAGR of 5.3%

The global bioethanol market is estimated at USD 53.19 Billion in 2017 and is projected to reach USD 68.95 Billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2017 to 2022. The market is driven by the increased demand for bioethanol from various end-use industry segments, such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, alcoholic beverages, and others. The transportation end-use industry segment led the global bioethanol market, in terms of volume, in 2016. 

Download PDF Brochure @ https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/pdfdownloadNew.asp?id=131222570

Major Growth Drivers: 
  • Government policies and mandates
    • Agricultural policies
    • Blending mandates
    • Subsidies and support
    • Tariffs & tax incentives
  • Volatile petroleum prices
  • Increase in awareness of climate change and green-house gas emission
  • Higher octane rating at a lower price than unleaded/pure gasoline

Starch-based feedstock is estimated to be the largest feedstock type in the global bioethanol market.

The starch-based segment is estimated to be the largest feedstock segment of the global bioethanol market. This feedstock type uses corn, barley, wheat, and other starch raw materials as feedstocks to produce bioethanol. Corn has the highest percentage of starch, about 70-72%. The growth in this segment is attributed to the rising demand from Asia Pacific and South America and the wide variety of feedstocks that can be used to produce starch-based bioethanol. The feedstocks used are available in almost all over the world.

bioethanol-market-131222570

Alcoholic beverages segment is estimated to be the fastest growing end-use industry segment of the global bioethanol market.

Among end-use industries, the alcoholic beverages segment is estimated to be the fastest growing end-use segment of the global bioethanol market. The growth of this segment is attributed to the increasing purchasing power in developing countries and the growing acceptance of drinking alcoholic beverages in some cultures.

North America contributes as the largest market of bioethanol

In 2016, North America accounted for largest share of the bioethanol market. Currently, the US is the largest market for bioethanol in North America, and is expected to continue to be the largest market till 2022. In the US, the demand for bioethanol is expected to increase due to the increasing government and environment regulations in the country. Regulations such as the Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) and E15 regulations contribute to the growing use of bioethanol in fuels. The other driving factor for the bioethanol market is the low price of corn, which is a prime feedstock used in the production of bioethanol in the country. Many bioethanol manufacturers are based in this region.

Key companies profiled in the global bioethanol market research report include Archer Daniels Midland Company (US), POET LLC (US), Green Plains (US), Valero Energy Corporation (US), Flint Hills Resource (US), Abengoa Bioenergy SA (Spain), Royal Dutch Shell plc (Netherlands), Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (US), Petrobras (Brazil), and The Andersons (US).

Speak to Analyst @ https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/speaktoanalystNew.asp?id=131222570

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Our 850 fulltime analyst and SMEs at MarketsandMarkets™ are tracking global high growth markets following the "Growth Engagement Model – GEM". The GEM aims at proactive collaboration with the clients to identify new opportunities, identify most important customers, write "Attack, avoid and defend" strategies, identify sources of incremental revenues for both the company and its competitors. MarketsandMarkets™ now coming up with 1,500 MicroQuadrants (Positioning top players across leaders, emerging companies, innovators, strategic players) annually in high growth emerging segments. MarketsandMarkets™ is determined to benefit more than 10,000 companies this year for their revenue planning and help them take their innovations/disruptions early to the market by providing them research ahead of the curve.

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December, 11 2019