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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 5 February 2017 – Brent: US$67/b; WTI: US$64/b

  • Swelling US crude production and a global rout in the financial markets – triggered by two consecutive days of 1,000 point plus drops in the Dow Jones – sent oil prices lower at the start of this week.
  • Stock markets across the globe have been tumbling over fears of accelerating inflation in America (and resulting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve), with energy firms particularly hit hard.
  • The US dollar has also reversed its slide against major currencies, clawing back some ground and depressing some momentum in oil prices.
  • Strong compliance reported within the OPEC block provided some cheer, but US oil production finally exceeding 10 mmb/d for the first time since 1970 in November 2017 according to the EIA.
  • Goldman Sachs hiked its short-term crude oil price forecast to US$75/b within the next three months and to US$82.50 within six months, stating that the market was most likely already balanced, earlier than expected.
  • US crude stocks rose for the first time in 10 weeks, reaching 6.8 million barrels, although gasoline inventories fell by 1.98 million barrels.
  • The active US oil and gas rig count fell by a net one last week. The oil rig count grew by six, but was offset by a loss of seven gas rigs.
  • Crude price outlook: The global financial turmoil has calmed down somewhat, but rising US production is likely to weigh on the minds of traders, leading to some weakness. Brent may fall to US$65/b, while WTI could go as low as US$61/b.

 

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Chevron and partner Total announced a ‘major’ oil discovery at the Ballymore prospect in the Gulf of Mexico, with the resource described as ‘excellent’ and indicative of the potential in the emerging Norphlet play. 
  • The results of Mexico’s latest deepwater auction round have been announced, with Shell emerging with nine of the 19 awarded blocks, focusing on blocks in the Gulf of Mexico Perdido and Salina basins.
  • Petrobras announced that it has been making ‘interesting discoveries’ in mature Campos basins blocks as it drills deeper in the pre-salt fields, without elaborating on what those discoveries entail.
  • ExxobMobil announced plans to triple its daily production in the Permian basin to 600,000 boe/d by 2025, and also intends to quintuple tight oil production at its assets in the Delaware and Midland basins.
  • First oil is expected from the giant Johan Sverdrup field in Norway as early as October 2019, within the official estimate of Q419.
  • China’s CNOOC announced plans to ramp up capital spending by at least 40% in 2018 to raise production, thanks to a ‘more suitable oil price.’
  • Kuwait Petroleum Corp announced a long-term plan to boost crude production to 4.75 mmb/d by 2040, earmarking US$500 billion in spending, including US$114 billion through 2023 and US$394 beyond.

Downstream

  • Iraq says that it has agreed to build a 300 kb/d oil refinery in the port of Fao with two (yet unidentified) Chinese companies. It has also launched a campaign to seek investors for two 150 kb/d plants in Nasiriya and Anbar, and a 100 kb/d site in Qayara, near Mosul.
  • Indian Oil Corp will be increasing the Panipat refinery’s capacity by 65% to 500 kb/d, as it attempts to keep pace with fuel consumption growth.
  • Pemex is reportedly closing in on a US$2.6 billion deal with Japan’s Mitsui & Co to revamp the flagging Tula refinery and increase capacity by 40%.
  • Thailand’s Bangchak Petroleum announced a US$3.5 billion plan to boost capacity at its Bangkok refinery to as much as 140 kb/d from a current 120 kb/d, with a renewed focus on clean fuels and biofuels.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Shell has sold its stake in Thailand’s Bongkot gas field, along with adjoining acreage, to PTTEP for US$750 million, as the Thai upstream state firm continues in its quest to beef up domestic gas production.
  • Statoil has aborted its attempt to take a 25.5% stake in the A5-A gas block in Mozambique, citing a lack of progress in negotiations with its partners.
  • Novatek has sold its first gas condensate cargo from the Yamal LNG project via tender, and confirmed that the second Yamal LNG line would launch in September 2018.
  • OMW is ramping up geological survey view in Austria in hopes of finding onshore gas in a 600 sq.km area northeast of Vienna.
  • Lebanon’s decision to place a gas field on auction near the Lebanon-Israel maritime border has been described by Israel as ‘very provocative’, raising fears that Block 9 could become mired in geopolitical tensions.
  • Croatia has passed a special law aimed at speeding up the construction of an LNG import terminal in the northern Adriatic Sea.

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