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Last Updated: February 14, 2018
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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 12 February 2017 – Brent: US$62/b; WTI: US$59/b

  • A tumultuous previous week saw crude benchmarks sinking on fears of growing global supply, and a financial rout across the globe.
  • US weekly output rose to 10.25 mmb/d last week, while Iran announced plans to increased crude production by 700,000 b/d through 2022.
  • While OPEC expresses the opinion that US shale will not ‘materially affect’ its efforts to rebalance the global crude supply, the market evidently believes otherwise, keep oil in the red all of last week.
  • Trends were more neutral at the beginning of the week, with the US dollar retreating against most currencies after a strong week, making crude purchases more attractive pricing-wise.
  • However, the EIA announced that American output was on track to reach 11 mmb/d ‘faster than expected’, possibly by November 2018, ahead of its previous forecast of the level being reached in November 2019.
  • Under the new US budget agreement, the US may have to sell an additional 100 million barrels of its emergency oil reserves to pay for its bills, which could reduce the national stockpile to 303 million barrels.
  • American crude stocks rose on growing production, with fuel product inventories also increasing as American refiners hiked utilisation rates.
  • Active US oil and gas rigs swelled by a large 29 sites last week, 26 of which were oil rigs, bringing the total active rig count to 946.
  • Crude price outlook: After last week’s rout, crude prices will gain more normality this week as the weakening US dollar props things up. Brent should average around US$62-63b, while WTI will remain shy of the US$60/b mark.


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Lebanon has awarded its first two oil and gas E&P agreements to a consortium of Total, Eni and Novatek (out of five put on auction), which includes the contentious Block 9 with dispute issues with Israel.
  • The state of California said that it will block transport of petroleum obtained from new offshore rigs that fall under President Trump’s proposed plan to expand drilling across US federal waters.
  • Qatar Petroleum has obtained a 25% stake in South Africa’s Exploration Block 11B/12B in the offshore Outenique Basin. This reduces Total’s stake to 45%, along with partners QP, CNR International and Main Street.
  • The Forties pipeline in the UK North Sea has been shut again – the second time in two months – over a technical error, restarting a day later.
  • ExxonMobil is fast-tracking its development plans in Guyana, now aiming to have the Payara field producing by 2023 and planning for a bigger FPSO to support Phase 2 of the Liza development.

Downstream

  • Surging demand saw China import 9.57 mmb/d of crude in January, a new record high, with natural gas imports also surging to 7.7 million tons.
  • European refiners are reportedly unhappy with Russian crude purchases, as Moscow’s close trade ties with China leaves volumes of lesser quality available for its western customers, particularly the flagship Ural grade.
  • Petrobras has begun the process of selling its 110kb/d Pasadena refinery in Texas, only 12 years after acquiring a controlling stake from Astra Oil.
  • Iraq has approved Ranya International’s plan to build a 70 kb/d oil refinery near Kirkuk, as Baghdad seeks to assert itself in Kurdish areas.
  • ExxonMobil’s 1.5 mtpa ethane cracker at its Baytown refining complex has been completed, with commissioning now in progress.
  • South African petchems producer Sasol has completed its US$1 billion expansion of the Sasolburg wax plant, increasing capacity to 137,000 tpa.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Eni announced that it has made a ‘promising’ gas discovery offshore Cyprus in the Calypso 1 well, describing it as ‘Zohr-like’, referring to its giant gas discovery in Egypt as gas plays in the Eastern Med heat up.
  • For Zohr, Eni now expects that production will reach some 2.9 bcf/d by mid-2019 from an estimated 1.8-2 bcf/d at end-2018 over seven trains.
  • Cheniere has signed two LNG agreements with China’s CNPC, delivering some 1.2 mtpa of LNG beginning 2018, with another tranche kicking in during 2023, lasting through 2043 indexed to Henry Hub prices.
  • Thailand will be holding auctions for the Bongkot and Erawan gas fields next month, as Chevron and PTTEP’s licences expire in 2022 and 2023.
  • Chevron has sold its first condensate cargo from Wheatstone to Thailand’s PTT, as the giant LNG project begins to ramp up output.
  • Mozambique’s government has approved Anadarko’s US$20 billion plan to develop the Area 1 LNG project, with Anadarko announcing that it had already agreed price and volumes of 5.1 mtpa of earmarked gas output.
  • Total and Papua New Guinea’s state-owned Kumul Petroleum has signed an agreement to jointly market LNG and condensate from Papua LNG.

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Pricing-in The Covid 19 Vaccine

In a few days, the bi-annual OPEC meeting will take place on November 30, leading into a wider OPEC+ meeting on December 30. This is what all the political jostling and negotiations currently taking place is leading up to, as the coalition of major oil producers under the OPEC+ banner decide on the next step of its historic and ambitious supply control plan. Designed to prop up global oil prices by managing supply, a postponement of the next phase in the supply deal is widely expected. But there are many cracks appearing beneath the headline.

A quick recap. After Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a price war in March 2020 that led to a collapse in oil prices (with US crude prices briefly falling into negative territory due to the technical quirk), OPEC and its non-OPEC allies (known collectively as OPEC+) agreed to a massive supply quota deal that would throttle their production for 2 years. The initial figure was 10 mmb/d, until Mexico’s reticence brought that down to 9.7 mmb/d. This was due to fall to 7.7 mmb/d by July 2020, but soft demand forced a delay, while Saudi Arabia led the charge to ensure full compliance from laggards, which included Iraq, Nigeria and (unusually) the UAE. The next tranche will bring the supply control ceiling down to 5.7 mmb/d. But given that Covid-19 is still raging globally (despite promising vaccine results), this might be too much too soon. Yes, prices have recovered, but at US$40/b crude, this is still not sufficient to cover the oil-dependent budgets of many OPEC+ nations. So a delay is very likely.

But for how long? The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee panel has suggested that the next step of the plan (which will effectively boost global supply by 2 mmb/d) be postponed by 3-6 months. This move, if adopted, will have been presaged by several public statements by OPEC+ leaders, including a pointed comment from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo that producers must be ready to respond to ‘shifts in market fundamentals’.

On the surface, this is a necessary move. Crude prices have rallied recently – to as high as US$45/b – on positive news of Covid-19 vaccines. Treatments from Pfizer, Moderna and the Oxford University/AstraZeneca have touted 90%+ effectiveness in various forms, with countries such as the US, Germany and the UK ordering billions of doses and setting the stage for mass vaccinations beginning December. Life returning to a semblance of normality would lift demand, particularly in key products such as gasoline (as driving rates increase) and jet fuel (allowing a crippled aviation sector to return to life). Underpinning the rally is the understanding that OPEC+ will always act in the market’s favour, carefully supporting the price recovery. But there are already grouses among OPEC members that they are doing ‘too much’. Led by Saudi Arabia, the draconian dictates of meeting full compliance to previous quotas have ruffled feathers, although most members have reluctantly attempt to abide by them. But there is a wider existential issue that OPEC+ is merely allowing its rivals to resuscitate and leapfrog them once again; the US active oil rig count by Baker Hughes has reversed a chronic decline trend, as WTI prices are at levels above breakeven for US shale.

Complaints from Iran, Iraq and Nigeria are to be expected, as is from Libya as it seeks continued exemption from quotas due to the legacy of civil war even though it has recently returned to almost full production following a truce. But grievance is also coming from an unexpected quarter: the UAE. A major supporter in the Saudi Arabia faction of OPEC, reports suggest that the UAE (led by the largest emirate, Abu Dhabi) are privately questioning the benefit of remaining in OPEC. Beset by shrivelling oil revenue, the Emiratis have been grumbling about the fairness of their allocated quota as they seek to rebuild their trade-dependent economy. There has been suggestion that the Emiratis could even leave OPEC if decisions led to a net negative outcome for them. Unlike the Qatar exit, this will not just be a blow to OPEC as a whole, questioning its market relevance but to Saudi Arabia’s lead position, as it loses one of its main allies, reducing its negotiation power. And if the UAE leaves, Kuwait could follow, which would leave the Saudis even more isolated.

This could be a tactic to increase the volume of the UAE’s voice in OPEC+, which has been dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia. But it could also be a genuine policy shift. Either way, it throws even more conundrums onto a delicate situation that could undermine an already fragile market. Despite the positive market news led by Covid-19 vaccines and demand recovery in Asia, American crude oil inventories in Cushing are now approaching similar high levels last seen in April (just before the WTI crash) while OPEC itself has lowered its global demand forecast for 2020 by 300,000 b/d. That’s dangerous territory to be treading in, especially if members of the OPEC+ club are threatening to exit and undermine the pack. A postponement of the plan seems inevitable on December 1 at this point, but it is what lies beyond the immediate horizon that is the true threat to OPEC+.

Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$44-46/b, WTI – US$42-44/b
  • More positive news on Covid-19 vaccines have underpinned a crude price rally despite worrying signs of continued soft demand and inventory build-ups
  • Pfizer’s application for emergency approval of its vaccine is paving the way for mass vaccinations to begin soon, with some experts predicting that the global economy could return to normality in Q2 2021
  • Market observers are predicting a delay in the OPEC+ supply quota schedule, but the longer timeline for the club’s plan – which is set to last until April 2022 – may have to be brought forward to appease current dissent in the group

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November, 25 2020
EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to remain relatively flat through 2021

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will remain near its current level through the end of 2021.

A record 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil was produced in the United States in November 2019 and was at 12.7 million b/d in March 2020, when the President declared a national emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak. Crude oil production then fell to 10.0 million b/d in May 2020, the lowest level since January 2018.

By August, the latest monthly data available in EIA’s series, production of crude oil had risen to 10.6 million b/d in the United States, and the U.S. benchmark price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil had increased from a monthly average of $17 per barrel (b) in April to $42/b in August. EIA forecasts that the WTI price will average $43/b in the first half of 2021, up from our forecast of $40/b during the second half of 2020.

The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.

The gradual recovery in global demand for petroleum contributes to EIA’s forecast of higher crude oil prices in 2021. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil price will increase from its 2020 average of $41/b to $47/b in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil price forecast depends on many factors, especially changes in global production of crude oil. As of early November, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) were considering plans to keep production at current levels, which could result in higher crude oil prices. OPEC+ had previously planned to ease production cuts in January 2021.

Other factors could result in lower-than-forecast prices, especially a slower recovery in global petroleum demand. As COVID-19 cases continue to increase, some parts of the United States are adding restrictions such as curfews and limitations on gatherings and some European countries are re-instituting lockdown measures.

EIA recently published a more detailed discussion of U.S. crude oil production in This Week in Petroleum.

November, 19 2020
OPEC members' net oil export revenue in 2020 expected to drop to lowest level since 2002

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will earn about $323 billion in net oil export revenues in 2020. If realized, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive this expected decrease in export revenues.

Crude oil prices have fallen as a result of lower global demand for petroleum products because of responses to COVID-19. Export volumes have also decreased under OPEC agreements limiting crude oil output that were made in response to low crude oil prices and record-high production disruptions in Libya, Iran, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela.

OPEC earned an estimated $595 billion in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2 trillion, which was earned in 2012. Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programs, and support public services. EIA expects a decline in net oil export revenue for OPEC in 2020 because of continued voluntary curtailments and low crude oil prices.

The benchmark Brent crude oil spot price fell from an annual average of $71 per barrel (b) in 2018 to $64/b in 2019. EIA expects Brent to average $41/b in 2020, based on forecasts in EIA’s October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). OPEC petroleum production averaged 36.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and fell to 34.5 million b/d in 2019; EIA expects OPEC production to decline a further 3.9 million b/d to average 30.7 million b/d in 2020.

EIA based its OPEC revenues estimate on forecast petroleum liquids production—including crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids—and forecast values of OPEC petroleum consumption and crude oil prices.

EIA recently published a more detailed discussion of OPEC revenue in This Week in Petroleum.

November, 16 2020