In the ancient world, the Fertile Crescent was a semicircle in the easternmost part of the Mediterranean that gave rise to some of the world’s greatest civilisations, including the Egyptian, Mesopotamian, Assyrian, Babylonians and Anatolian empires. In modern times, this stretch of water has been the site of some of the greatest hydrocarbon discoveries in the past decade, transforming the likes of Israel and Egypt from energy importers to energy exporters.
With great potential also comes problems. The major finds – almost all of which are natural gas fields – are clustered some 150km from the land boundaries of Egypt, Israel and Cyprus. Maritime dispute are common in the upstream industry, and are generally solved amicably – either through joint development areas like Malaysia-Thailand or demarcating sea borders, which Cyprus did with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel. However, this region is also home to simmering political tensions, which could cloud future development.
Lebanon last month completed its first offshore oil and gas block tender, awarding two blocks to a consortium of Total, Novatek and Eni. One of those blocks – Block 9 – borders Israeli waters, one of two blocks that overlap a triangular 860 sq.km area that both Lebanon and Israel claim. Crucially, Block 9 is just some 20km from the Karish-Tanin gas field in Israel (with its 2.4 tcf of gas) and 60km from the Tamar field. This hints at good gas potential, but Israel has a long history of conflict with Lebanon. Israel’s described the block sale as ‘blatant provocation’, part of a cadre of recent sabre-rattling statements. This might be defused – like back in 2010 when both countries agreed to a maritime border – but if major oil or gas reserves are found in Block 9, things could get complicated.
Over in Cyprus, Turkey has long protested Cypriot maritime border agreements, seeing them as invalid over the issue of breakaway state Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which only Turkey recognises. Thus far, Cypriot E&P activity has been concentrated in the south, far away from waters around the island’s north that are a political quagmire. Discoveries have been encouraging – the Aphrodite field was discovered in 2011 – but have been dwarfed by giant finds in Egypt and Israel. That changed earlier this month, with Eni and Total announcing a promising new find in the south, just 30km away from Zohr. Estimates on Calypso reserves are still ongoing, but its potential has been described as ‘Zohr-like’. Turkey immediately responded with a statement that it considers Calypso within its boundaries, triggering a rebuke from Cyprus and even Egypt.
In response, Turkish warships repeatedly blocked Eni’s ships from reaching offshore drilling sites. This didn’t happen in 2011 when Aphrodite was being developed, but given the blockbuster size potential of Calypso, things could heat up. Turkey has gone as far as to suggest it will begin offshore surveys in Northern Cyprus in response, another act of provocation that could be worrying given the combative approach of Turkey’s current government.
Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Lower 48 states’ working natural gas in storage will end the 2019–20 winter heating season (November 1–March 31) at 1,935 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with 12% more inventory than the previous five-year average. This increase is the result of mild winter temperatures and continuing strong production. EIA forecasts that net injections during the refill season (April 1–October 31) will bring the total working gas in storage to 4,029 Bcf, which, if realized, would be the largest monthly inventory level on record.
Mild winter temperatures for the current winter have put downward pressure on natural gas prices and led to smaller withdrawals from natural gas into storage. Year-over-year growth in dry natural gas production and natural gas exports—especially liquefied natural gas (LNG)—throughout 2019 also affected natural gas storage levels. On October 11, 2019, the total natural gas in storage surpassed the previous five-year average—an indicator of typical storage levels—for the first time since mid-2017.
The total natural gas in storage at the start of this heating season was 3,725 Bcf on October 31, 2019. EIA expects withdrawals from working natural gas storage to total 1,790 Bcf at the end of March 2020. If realized, this would be the least natural gas withdrawn during a heating season since the winter of 2015–16, when temperatures were also mild.
Injections into and withdrawals from natural gas storage balance seasonal and other fluctuations in consumption. Natural gas demand is greatest in the winter months, when residential and commercial demand for natural gas for space heating increases. Natural gas consumption in the power sector is greatest in summer months, when overall electricity demand is relatively high because of air conditioning.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
In the latest STEO, EIA expects the total working natural gas in storage will exceed the previous five-year average for the remainder of 2020, despite declines in dry natural gas production, increases in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, and increases in natural gas exports. EIA expects monthly natural gas production to decline from last year’s record levels in 2020 as lower natural gas prices reduce incentives for natural gas-directed drilling and as lower crude oil prices reduce incentives for oil-directed drilling and associated gas production.
At the start of February, a major new find was jointly announced by the two largest emirates within the UAE: the oil-rich Abu Dhabi and the ambitious Dubai. Between them, they literally made the world’s largest natural gas discovery since 2005. Located at the border between the two sheikdoms, the Jebel Ali field is estimated to contain some 80 trillion scf of natural gas, the largest global find since the Galkynysh field in Turkmenistan.
Stretching over 5,000 square km, an exploration campaign by Abu Dhabi involving over 10 wells confirmed the enormous discovery in early January 2020. The shallow nature of the onshore reserves should make it easier to extract gas at lower costs, hastening the time-to-market. At current estimated figures, Jebel Ali would be the fourth-largest gas field in the Middle East, behind Qatar’s North Field, Iran’s South Pars and Abu Dhabi’s own Bab field.
The politics of the UAE can be complicated; each emirate is essentially self-governing with federal oversight, which is dominated by Abu Dhabi and Dubai (which always hold the President and Prime Minister roles, according to convention). This essentially means that each emirate has grew quite independently. Fujairah, for example, developed into a bunkering port, while Sharjah went into industry and manufacturing. Dubai is globally famous for its titanic real estate projects, pursued finance, services and media, while Abu Dhabi, the largest and most blessed of all with hydrocarbon resources, turned into an energy powerhouse. Oil & gas wealth in the UAE is mainly in Abu Dhabi; so while the Jebel Ali discovery is a welcome addition for Abu Dhabi, it is a game changer for Dubai, which imports most of its energy needs.
Speculation has raised that possibility that the Jebel Ali field could vault the UAE into gas self-sufficiency, because even Abu Dhabi imports gas. The UAE has a stated goal to be gas independent by 2030. On paper, that’s possible. Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC has agreed to develop the field with Dubai’s gas supplier, the Dubai Supply Authority (DUSUP), with the entire supply will be channel to DUSUP for use in Dubai. Jebel Ali could begin producing gas by 2023, and will likely be distributed domestically through pipeline. The enormous reserves could supply the entire UAE’s gas demand for nearly 30 years, assuming optimal recovery conditions. However, in practice, self-sufficiency might take longer to achieve.
Dubai and indeed, Abu Dhabi are currently reliant on Qatar for their gas supply. An existing sales agreement that expires in 2032 sees Qatar pipe 2 bcf/d of gas to the UAE through Abu Dhabi. The problem is that these neighbours are erstwhile friends. A division in the Middle East between the pro-Saudi Arabia and pro-Iran blocs has caused a rift. Led by Saudi Arabia, several Persian Gulf states including the UAE implemented a diplomatic and trade blockade on Qatar, isolating it. The blockade, slightly weakened, still continues today. Even now, planes flying into Qatar have to make strange manoeuvres when approaching to avoid encroaching on Saudi and UAE airspace. However, the gas supply arrangement remains in place.
And this is where the Jebel Ali discovery could come in handy. Qatar is already on track to be self-sufficient in gas terms by 2025, but will probably honour the Qatar deal until expiration. Dubai has been increasingly reliant on LNG through an FSRU for power generation, but has attempted over the years to kick-start a number of coal or solar-power projects. Jebel Ali won’t kick the addiction, but it could definitely reduce Dubai’s reliance on Qatari gas.
Jebel Ali wasn’t the only recent gas discovery made in the UAE. Further north, the Sharjah National Oil Corp and Italy’s Eni announced a new onshore gas and condensate discovery. Though tiny in comparison to Jebel Ali, some 50 mscf/d of lean gas and condensate. The cumulative effects of these discoveries could make gas self-sufficiency a reality sooner. At this point, the UAE consumes some 7.4 bcf gas per day, while marketed production is some 6.2 bcf/d. An ambitious plan to develop Abu Dhabi’s large gas fields was the rationale behind naming the 2030 self-sufficiency deadline. With the discovery of Jebel Ali, that can now be brought forward by a couple of years at least. And there might even be some left over to be exported as LNG
The UAE Major Gas Projects:
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 17 February 2020 – Brent: US$53/b; WTI: US$49/b
Headlines of the week