Crude came under some downward pressure mid-week from data showing another build in US crude stocks, but did not yield much ground. It was back under the influence of fundamentals and the fundamentals remain strong. Front-month May ICE Brent futures contract began above $70 Monday and expired comfortably above that psychologically important level Thursday, in a week shortened by the Easter holiday in several parts of the world.
Hawkish comments around the fate of the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts beyond the December 2018 expiration of the current agreement brought the bulls back out in full force. The prospect of a watershed agreement to keep Russia aligned with OPEC in its supply-management strategy for the next decade or two promises a whole new era in the oil market.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, a powerful voice on the kingdom’s energy policy, told Reuters in an interview in New York March 26 that Saudi Arabia and Russia were “working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10- to 20-year agreement” on coordinating oil supply.
The comment was in line with ongoing efforts within OPEC to institutionalise its collaboration with the 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia, forged at the end of 2016. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, current OPEC President Suhail al-Mazrouei and Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo have alluded several times in recent months to a new, more enduring framework of cooperation with the non-OPEC producers. However, MBS’ words, and the reference to a 10- to 20-year timeframe, lent more gravity to the picture of the evolving OPEC and non-OPEC relationship.
An “exit” from the supply cuts, it appears, is no longer in the line of sight. Several producers in the pact have suggested a six-month extension beyond December, Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi told an industry conference in Baghdad Wednesday. Barkindo, speaking at the same event, said six more countries had expressed “solidarity” with the OPEC/non-OPEC efforts to restrain supply, though he did not identify them.
Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih had hinted earlier this month that the OPEC/nonOPEC production cuts could go beyond December 2018. The first quarter of a year typically sees a build in oil inventories, as a result of which, lifting the curbs in Q1 2019 would not be a good idea, he said in a Bloomberg interview.
Sticking with a degree of supply restraint and cementing a framework that enables active management by 24 or more producers is the obvious way forward to preserve a hard-earned equilibrium in the oil market, and one that may remain fragile for a while. Is OPEC going to become “super-OPEC”? It already has, in our view, and the label doesn’t really matter.
Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported a drop of seven in the number of oil rigs drilling in the US to 797 in the week to March 29, rekindling doubts over the shale sector’s projected resurgence in 2018.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels resuming firing of missiles into Saudi Arabia, growing fears over the fate of the Iran nuclear deal at the hands of a belligerent US administration, sliding Venezuelan output and geopolitical crimps on production in Nigeria and Libya are all conspiring to keep the oil market on tenterhooks. The second quarter promises to be anything but a seasonal lull.
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The Permian is in desperate need of pipelines. That much is true. There is so much shale liquids sloshing underneath the Permian formation in Texas and New Mexico, that even though it has already upended global crude market and turned the USA into the world’s largest crude producer, there is still so much of it trapped inland, unable to make the 800km journey to the Gulf Coast that would take them to the big wider world.
The stakes are high. Even though the US is poised to reach some 12 mmb/d of crude oil production next year – more than half of that coming from shale oil formations – it could be producing a lot more. This has already caused the Brent-WTI spread to widen to a constant US$10/b since mid-2018 – when the Permian’s pipeline bottlenecks first became critical – from an average of US$4/b prior to that. It is even more dramatic in the Permian itself, where crude is selling at a US$10-16/b discount to Houston WTI, with trends pointing to the spread going as wide as US$20/b soon. Estimates suggest that a record 3,722 wells were drilled in the Permian this year but never opened because the oil could not be brought to market. This is part of the reason why the US active rig count hasn’t increased as much as would have been expected when crude prices were trending towards US$80/b – there’s no point in drilling if you can’t sell.
Assistance is on the way. Between now and 2020, estimates suggest that some 2.6 mmb/d of pipeline capacity across several projects will come onstream, with an additional 1 mmb/d in the planning stages. Add this to the existing 3.1 mmb/d of takeaway capacity (and 300,000 b/d of local refining) and Permian shale oil output currently dammed away by a wall of fixed capacity could double in size when freed to make it to market.
And more pipelines keep getting announced. In the last two weeks, Jupiter Energy Group announced a 90-day open season seeking binding commitments for a planned 1 mmb/d, 1050km long Jupiter Pipeline – which could connect the Permian to all three of Texas’ deepwater ports, Houston, Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Plains All American is launching its 500,000 b/d Sunrise Pipeline, connecting the Permian to Cushing, Oklahoma. Wolf Midstream has also launched an open season, seeking interest for its 120,000 b/d Red Wolf Crude Connector branch, connecting to its existing terminal and infrastructure in Colorado City.
Current estimates suggest that Permian output numbered around 3.5 mmb/d in October. At maximum capacity, that’s still about 100,000 b/d of shale oil trapped inland. As planned pipelines come online over the next two years, that trickle could turn into a flood. Consider this. Even at the current maxing out of Permian infrastructure, the US is already on the cusp on 12 mmb/d crude production. By 2021, it could go as high as 15 mmb/d – crude prices, permitting, of course.
As recently reported in the WSJ; “For years, the companies behind the U.S. oil-and-gas boom, including Noble Energy Inc. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. have promised shareholders they have thousands of prospective wells they can drill profitably even at $40 a barrel. Some have even said they can generate returns on investment of 30%. But most shale drillers haven’t made much, if any, money at those prices. From 2012 to 2017, the 30 biggest shale producers lost more than $50 billion. Last year, when oil prices averaged about $50 a barrel, the group as a whole was barely in the black, with profits of about $1.7 billion, or roughly 1.3% of revenue, according to FactSet.”
The immense growth experienced in the Permian has consequences for the entire oil supply chain, from refining balances – shale oil is more suitable for lighter ends like gasoline, but the world is heading for a gasoline glut and is more interested in cracking gasoil for the IMO’s strict marine fuels sulphur levels coming up in 2020 – to geopolitics, by diminishing OPEC’s power and particularly Saudi Arabia’s role as a swing producer. For now, the walls keeping a Permian flood in are still standing. In two years, they won’t, with new pipeline infrastructure in place. And so the oil world has two years to prepare for the coming tsunami, but only if crude prices stay on course.
Recent Announced Permian Pipeline Projects
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 3 December 2018 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$52/b
Headlines of the week
The engine oil market has grown up around 10 to 12% in the last three years because of various reasons, mostly because of the rise of automobiles.
According to the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA), the number of registered petrol and diesel-powered vehicles is 3,663,189 units.
The number of automotive vehicles has increased by 2.5 times in the last eight years.
The demand for engine oils will rise keeping pace with the increasing automotive vehicles, with an expected 3% yearly growths.
Mostly, for this reason, the annual lubricant consumption raised over 14% growth for the last four years. Now its current demand is around 160 million tonnes.
The overall lubricants demand has increased also for the growth of the power sector, which has created a special market for industrial lubricants oil.
The lubricants oil market size for industries has doubled in the last five years due to the establishment of a number of power plants across the country.
The demand for industrial oil will continue to rise at least for the next 15 years, as the quick rental power plants need a huge quantity of lube oil to run.
The industries account for 30% of the total lubricant consumption; however, it is expected to take over 35% of the overall demand in the next 10 years.
Mobil is the market leader with 27% market share; however, market insiders say that around 70% market shares belong to various brands altogether, which is still undefined.
It is already flooded with many global and local brands.