With “Creating Value through Collaboration” as its theme, the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2018 puts the spotlight on the imperative of collaboration and cooperation in paving the way for a prosperous and robust petrochemical industry.
Rising optimism in the oil & gas industry
With 2017 deemed by many as the year of recovery, 2018 brings about a sense of optimism as the oil and gas industry continues its slow and steady recovery from the 2014 downturn. Global oil prices are rising gradually from around $30 per barrel in early 2016 to around $53 per barrel in 2017. There is also an increase in upstream and downstream activities which is a positive indicator of the health of the industry.
Robust global economic growth has led to a steady increase in oil and gas demand. In its latest report, International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that global oil demand will rise from 97.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.7 million bpd from 2018 to 2023 with China and India contributing half of the increase in demand.
Non-OPEC countries is forecasted to dominate the global oil supply contributing 59.26 million bpd of crude oil this year, with the US contributing the largest supply growth amounting to 1.4 million bpd for 2018. Apart from the surging output from the US, rising production from Canada, Brazil and Norway is expected to support and drive global demand, while the Middle East continues to remain as Asia’s biggest supplier.
Asia as the key driver of global petrochemical industry
Asia’s robust economic growth supported by megatrends; rapid urbanisation, growing population and rising middle class income will lead to higher demand of petrochemicals. This will increase the potential for continuous growth of the industry in the region.
One of the bright stars in Asia is China. Availability of coal resources and imported LPG from the US, and the development of integrated refinery and petrochemical complexes have made the availability of feedstock for the development of the petrochemical industry.
India is also expanding its petrochemical capacities and increasing its flexibility in petrochemical production. The government is planning to develop petrochemical complexes around India to meet the increasing demand for polymers and speciality chemicals across the diverse industrial segments. In 2017, India’s Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has successfully commissioned the world’s largest ethane importing plant and has now begun to import ethane from the US for its crackers in Dahej and Hazira.
Growing capacity expansion in the US
The shale revolution brought about a robust petrochemical capacity expansion in the US. According to an analysis by Independent Chemical Information Service (ICIS) eight new ethane crackers are expected to commence production from 2017 to 2018, producing a total of 9.2 million tonnes/year of ethylene capacity.
The US polyethylene capacity is projected to rise by 6.5 million tonnes/year, accounting for about 42% of global polyethylene capacity expansion up till 2020. The US polyethylene production will mostly be meant for export to key regions such as Latin America and Europe. The increased expansion has opened arbitrage opportunities to Asia, competing with the regional producers as well as producers from the Middle East.
The need for collaboration for the sustainability of the industry
With intensifying competition from other regions, collaboration plays a prominent role in enhancing the robustness of the Asian petrochemical industry. Strong cooperation between manufacturer and consumer is needed to develop new markets for differentiated products. The focus on creating high-value specialty chemicals which are customised to cater for the niche market will help propel the industry further in positioning the Asian petrochemical producers as solution providers.
Akbar Md Thayoob, President, Malaysian Petrochemicals Association (MPA) said, “Today, Petrochemicals are regarded as the key engine of growth as we move into the future. Shaped by the megatrends of urbanisation, ageing population, rising middle income, energy efficiency, just to name a few. Against this backdrop, there is a need for the petrochemicals fraternity to come together and collaborate to offer sustainable solutions demanded by these megatrends.”
Malaysia’s petrochemical industry landscape
Malaysia’s petrochemical industry began in the early 1990s with the development of three major petrochemical facilities strategically located in Gebeng, Kertih and Pasir Gudang. Since then, Malaysia has been among the key petrochemical players in the region with a wide range of petrochemicals being produced and exported from the country such as olefins, aromatics, ethylene oxides and glycols, among many others. These world-scale plants have also contributed significantly to the production of the local plastic processing activities in the country by providing a steady supply of feedstock material for the plastic industry.
PETRONAS’ largest downstream project, Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC), is currently on track for overall start up by early 2019. This bold move by PETRONAS is expected to push the Malaysian Oil and Gas downstream sector into a new frontier of technology and economic development. During the construction period, PIC employed up to 60,000 workers and created spin-off from economic activities to its surrounding areas. Its proximity to the world’s busiest shipping lane and international trading hub makes it the most strategic regional downstream hub.
The Malaysian government’s support in providing a conducive ecosystem has also helped the petrochemical industry to thrive in the country. This includes the development of infrastructure and offering of incentives to attract foreign companies to invest in Malaysia and boost local manufacturing sector activities.
APIC 2018: Creating Value through Collaboration
Against the backdrop of these opportunities, APIC 2018 will gather key business players, leading market analysts and industry experts in Kuala Lumpur from 9th to 10th May to provide insights and critical analysis from across the chemical value chain to enhance the growth of the industry.
Notable speakers for the event includes Dave Witte, Senior Vice President, Division Head – Energy & Chemicals, IHS Markit, Clive Gibson, Vice President, Asia, Energy & Chemicals Advisory, Nexant, Vipul S Shah, COO – Petrochemicals, Reliance Industries Ltd and Dr Andrea Frenzel, President, South & East Asia, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, BASF.
For more information about Asia’s most premier petrochemical industry event, APIC 2018, visit www.apic2018.org.my
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The constant domestic fighting in Libya – a civil war, to call a spade a spade, has taken a toll on the once-prolific oil production in the North African country. After nearly a decade of turmoil, it appears now that the violent clash between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli and the upstart insurgent Libyan National Army (LNA) forces could be ameliorating into something less destructive with the announcement of a pact between the two sides that would to some normalisation of oil production and exports.
A quick recap. Since the 2011 uprising that ended the rule of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been in a state of perpetual turmoil. Led by General Khalifa Haftar and the remnants of loyalists that fought under Gaddafi’s full-green flag, the Libyan National Army stands in direct opposition to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) that was formed in 2015. Caught between the two sides are the Libyan people and Libya’s oilfields. Access to key oilfields and key port facilities has changed hands constantly over the past few years, resulting in a start-stop rhythm that has sapped productivity and, more than once, forced Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) to issue force majeure on its exports. Libya’s largest producing field, El Sharara, has had to stop production because of Haftar’s militia aggression no fewer than four times in the past four years. At one point, all seven of Libya’s oil ports – including Zawiyah (350 kb/d), Es Sider (360 kb/d) and Ras Lanuf (230 kb/d) were blockaded as pipelines ran dry. For a country that used to produce an average of 1.2 mmb/d of crude oil, currently output stands at only 80,000 b/d and exports considerably less. Gaddafi might have been an abhorrent strongman, but political stability can have its pros.
This mutually-destructive impasse, economically, at least might be lifted, at least partially, if the GNA and LNA follow through with their agreement to let Libyan oil flow again. The deal, brokered in Moscow between the warlord Haftar and Vice President of the Libyan Presidential Council Ahmed Maiteeq calls for the ‘unrestrained’ resumption of crude oil production that has been at a near standstill since January 2020. The caveat because there always is one, is that Haftar demanded that oil revenues be ‘distributed fairly’ in order to lift the blockade he has initiated across most of the country’s upstream infrastructure.
Shortly after the announcement of the deal, the NOC announced that it would kick off restarting oil production and exports, lifting an 8-month force majeure situation, but only at ‘secure terminals and facilities’. ‘Secure’ in this cases means facilities and fields where NOC has full control, but will exclude areas and assets that the LNA rebels still have control. That’s a significant limitation, since the LNA, which includes support from local tribal groups and Russian mercenaries still controls key oilfields and terminals. But it is also a softening from the NOC, which had previously stated that it would only return to operations when all rebels had left all facilities, citing safety of its staff.
If the deal moves forward, it would certainly be an improvement to the major economic crisis faced by Libya, where cash flow has dried up and basic utilities face severe cutbacks. But it is still an ‘if’. Many within the GNA sphere are critical of the deal struck by Maiteeq, claiming that it did not involve the consultation or input of his allies. The current GNA leader, Prime Minister Fayyaz al Sarraj is also stepping down at the end of October, ushering in another political sea change that could affect the deal. Haftar is a mercurial beast, so predictions are difficult, but what is certain is that depriving a country of its chief moneymaker is a recipe for disaster on all sides. Which is why the deal will probably go ahead.
Which is bad news for the OPEC+ club. Because of its precarious situation, Libya has been exempt for the current OPEC+ supply deal. Even the best case scenarios within OPEC+ had factored out Libya, given the severe uncertainty of the situation there. But if the deal goes through and holds, it could potentially add a significant amount of restored crude supply to global markets at a time when OPEC+ itself is struggling to manage the quotas within its own, from recalcitrant members like Iraq to surprising flouters like the UAE.
Mathematically at least, the ceiling for restored Libyan production is likely in the 300-400,000 b/d range, given that Haftar is still in control of the main fields and ports. That does not seem like much, but it will give cause for dissent within OPEC on the exemption of Libya from the supply deal. Libya will resist being roped into the supply deal, and it has justification to do so. But freeing those Libyan volumes into a world market that is already suffering from oversupply and weak prices will be undermining in nature. The equation has changed, and the Libyan situation can no longer be taken for granted.
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According to 2018 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for newly constructed utility-scale electric generators in the United States, annual capacity-weighted average construction costs for solar photovoltaic systems and onshore wind turbines have continued to decrease. Natural gas generator costs also decreased slightly in 2018.
From 2013 to 2018, costs for solar fell 50%, costs for wind fell 27%, and costs for natural gas fell 13%. Together, these three generation technologies accounted for more than 98% of total capacity added to the electricity grid in the United States in 2018. Investment in U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2018 increased by 9.3% from 2017, driven by natural gas capacity additions.
The average construction cost for solar photovoltaic generators is higher than wind and natural gas generators on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis, although the gap is narrowing as the cost of solar falls rapidly. From 2017 to 2018, the average construction cost of solar in the United States fell 21% to $1,848 per kilowatt (kW). The decrease was driven by falling costs for crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels, which were at their lowest average construction cost of $1,767 per kW in 2018.
Crystalline silicon fixed-tilt panels—which accounted for more than one-third of the solar capacity added in the United States in 2018, at 1.7 gigawatts (GW)—had the second-highest share of solar capacity additions by technology. Crystalline silicon axis-based tracking panels had the highest share, with 2.0 GW (41% of total solar capacity additions) of added generating capacity at an average cost of $1,834 per kW.
Total U.S. wind capacity additions increased 18% from 2017 to 2018 as the average construction cost for wind turbines dropped 16% to $1,382 per kW. All wind farm size classes had lower average construction costs in 2018. The largest decreases were at wind farms with 1 megawatt (MW) to 25 MW of capacity; construction costs at these farms decreased by 22.6% to $1,790 per kW.
Compared with other generation technologies, natural gas technologies received the highest U.S. investment in 2018, accounting for 46% of total capacity additions for all energy sources. Growth in natural gas electric-generating capacity was led by significant additions in new capacity from combined-cycle facilities, which almost doubled the previous year’s additions for that technology. Combined-cycle technology construction costs dropped by 4% in 2018 to $858 per kW.
Fossil fuels, or energy sources formed in the Earth’s crust from decayed organic material, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal, continue to account for the largest share of energy production and consumption in the United States. In 2019, 80% of domestic energy production was from fossil fuels, and 80% of domestic energy consumption originated from fossil fuels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the U.S. total energy flow diagram to visualize U.S. energy from primary energy supply (production and imports) to disposition (consumption, exports, and net stock additions). In this diagram, losses that take place when primary energy sources are converted into electricity are allocated proportionally to the end-use sectors. The result is a visualization that associates the primary energy consumed to generate electricity with the end-use sectors of the retail electricity sales customers, even though the amount of electric energy end users directly consumed was significantly less.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
The share of U.S. total energy production from fossil fuels peaked in 1966 at 93%. Total fossil fuel production has continued to rise, but production has also risen for non-fossil fuel sources such as nuclear power and renewables. As a result, fossil fuels have accounted for about 80% of U.S. energy production in the past decade.
Since 2008, U.S. production of crude oil, dry natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) has increased by 15 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), 14 quads, and 4 quads, respectively. These increases have more than offset decreasing coal production, which has fallen 10 quads since its peak in 2008.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
In 2019, U.S. energy production exceeded energy consumption for the first time since 1957, and U.S. energy exports exceeded energy imports for the first time since 1952. U.S. energy net imports as a share of consumption peaked in 2005 at 30%. Although energy net imports fell below zero in 2019, many regions of the United States still import significant amounts of energy.
Most U.S. energy trade is from petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products), which accounted for 69% of energy exports and 86% of energy imports in 2019. Much of the imported crude oil is processed by U.S. refineries and is then exported as petroleum products. Petroleum products accounted for 42% of total U.S. energy exports in 2019.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
The share of U.S. total energy consumption that originated from fossil fuels has fallen from its peak of 94% in 1966 to 80% in 2019. The total amount of fossil fuels consumed in the United States has also fallen from its peak of 86 quads in 2007. Since then, coal consumption has decreased by 11 quads. In 2019, renewable energy consumption in the United States surpassed coal consumption for the first time. The decrease in coal consumption, along with a 3-quad decrease in petroleum consumption, more than offset an 8-quad increase in natural gas consumption.
EIA previously published articles explaining the energy flows of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. More information about total energy consumption, production, trade, and emissions is available in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.
Principal contributor: Bill Sanchez