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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 2 April 2017 – Brent: US$67/b; WTI: US$63/b

  • After the Easter break, oil prices started the week on a weaker note as geopolitical development exacerbated operational concerns.
  • Chatter in the market suggests that Saudi Arabia will be cutting the price for the crude grades it sells to Asia, sparking off speculation that Aramco will aiming to recapture lost market share and signalling an end to the production freeze.
  • Russian crude output also rose in March, from 10.95 mmbpd to 10,97 mmbpd, in spite of the OPEC/NOPEC supply cut agreement still in place.
  • The trade spat between the US and China has also been escalating, with China replying with tariffs on some US$50 billions of US imports after the White House announced more tariffs on Chinese products last week; the potential trade war has been rattling financial markets, especially in Asia.
  • Bahrain’s announcement that it has made its largest oil discovery in decades also caused traders to take stock of the major upstream projects in the pipeline that will raise supply in the long run.
  • With US crude production still rising and crude inventories also building, the host of bearish factors is likely to weigh on traders’ minds; however, the API reported that overall crude inventories declined by 3.28 million barrels last week, which has lifted prices slightly.
  • Despite their numbers, Russia and Saudi Arabia say they will set up a joint mechanism to govern OPEC and NOPEC cooperation will be set up by the end of the year, with talk at an energy conference in Baghdad suggesting that the supply freeze may have to be extended, instead of cut short.
  • The active US rig count unexpectedly declined by 2 last week, with a 7 site drop in oil rigs, bringing the overall total to 979 sites.
  • Crude price outlook: Although concerns over geopolitical and trade spats will cap gains, a more optimistic sentiment this week should see Brent trade at US$68/b and WTI at US$64/b. The new Shanghai crude contract will be in line with WTI prices.


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • The new Shanghai crude futures contract is attaining benchmark status faster than expected, as Unipec – Sinopec’s trading arm – inked a one-year deal to purchase Middle Eastern crude from a ‘western oil major’ based on the Shanghai crude contract, displacing the Dubai and Oman markers.
  • Just as its fuel retail business is attracting foreign investment, almost half of 35 shallow water blocks offered by Mexico have been awarded, with European majors like Total, Eni and Repsol being the major winners.
  • Repsol has officially declared force majeure over the US$2 billion Ca Rong Do development, as Vietnam capitulates to Chinese pressure.
  • Reliance’s exit from US shale plays continues as its sold shale assets to Sundance Energy for US$100 million, including some Eagle Ford sites.
  • ExxonMobil emerged with eight blocks from Brazil’s recent offshore block auction – either alone or in partnership – with interest in the pre-salt concessions more than doubling the government’s estimates.
  • Iraq will be holding an oil and gas field auction for 11 sites on April 15, attracting major interest from ExxonMobil, Total and Lukoil.
  • Apache has made a ‘significant’ new discovery in Block 9/18a Area-W in the UK North Sea, with Graten possibly have 10 million barrels of light oil.


Downstream

  • India’s BPCL has announced plans to build a US$3 billion petrochemical plant in Mumbai, having purchased 202 hectares of land in March. The petchem complex will be integrated with its 240 kb/d Mumbai refinery.
  • The RAPID refinery in Johor is finally getting off the ground, as Saudi Aramco finalised its deal to buy a US$7 billion stake in the project and supply an initial 50% of its crude, with an option to rise to 70%.
  • The Trump administration is moving to reverse Obama-era fuel efficiency regulations for cars and light trucks, arguing that the Environmental Protection Agency targets were ‘too aggressive’.
  • Iraq is looking into building crude oil storage facilities in Japan and South Korea to increase sales to East Asia, following the example of Aramco.
  • Adnoc has signed two 3-year deals with Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan and Thailand’s SCG Chemicals to deliver up to 1.5 mtpa of naphtha per year.


Natural Gas/LNG

  • Petronas is reviving its K5 sour gas project in Sarawak, which will serve as a pilot project to test its carbon capture and storage technology.
  • China’s Sinopec has set out a plan to increase its natural gas supply capacity to some 60 bcm/y across its domestic output and imported volumes over the next 6 years, up from a current 27 bcm/y. Sinopec will also be doubling its LNG handling capacity to 26 mtpa.
  • Thailand’s PTTEP is now looking at a gas-to-power concept for the Aung Sinkha gas condensate field in Myanmar, part of the M3 gas block.
  • Iraq has officially enlisted Baker Hughes and General Electric to process natural gas extracted from the Nassiriya and Al Gharraf oilfields, which are currently being flared due to lack of gas capture facilities.

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