NrgEdge Editor

Sharing content and articles for users
Last Updated: April 26, 2018
1 view
Business Trends
image

Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 23 April 2017 – Brent: US$74/b; WTI: US$68/b

  • Geopolitical tensions continue to price crude oil at a premium; after US-led military action in Syria in response to alleged chemical weapons attacks and missile attacks from Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen towards Saudi Arabia boosted prices to their highest level since December 2014.
  • Reports of explosions and gunshots outside Saudi Arabian King Salman’s palace over the weekend also spooked talk of attacks and coups, contributing to a fragile atmosphere in the Middle East.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron is attempting to coax US President Donald Trump into preserving the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which mollified the market slightly, but Trump continues to show exasperation.
  • Additional positive sentiment came from OPEC, as a joint finding by OPEC and its NOPEC allies states that the global oil glut has been virtually eliminated, with the original target of the pact in sight.
  • There are signs that the successful OPEC-NOPEC cooperation has fuelled the desire of OPEC to expand cooperation, with UAE Oil Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei stating ‘more countries were needed in the pact’ to ensure the burden is spread more evenly.
  • Even as OPEC mulled further cooperation and an extension of the supply cuts, President Trump slammed the cartel for inflating oil prices – an unusual response given that higher prices have been benefited American shale industry.
  • American stockpiles of crude and oil products declined across-the-board according to the EIA, while US crude production inched up by 15,000 barrels/day to 10.5 mmb/d.
  • Five new oil rigs entered service in the US last week, bringing the total active rig count up to 1013, one of many oil industry metrics that are returning to pre-2014 crisis levels.
  • Crude price outlook: OPEC’s seeming willingness to continue its supply pact might signal to the market that higher prices are acceptable, but the real variable is geopolitical sentiment. We expect Brent to move down to US$72/b and WTI/Shanghai to US$66/b.


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • The Indonesian government has transferred rights to eight oil field blocks scheduled to expire to Pertamina, meant to ‘compensate’ the firm for any profitability drag by the government’s fuels subsidy policy. The oil blocks in question were formerly held by Chevron, CNOOC, Total and Inpex.
  • The Philippines is aiming to have a framework for joint oil and gas cooperation with China in the South China Sea by the end of this year, as it faces the prospect of dwindling domestic production.

Downstream

  • The refining crunch at PDVSA is getting worse, as data from the Venezuelan state oil firm shows that its domestic refineries – including the Isla refiner in Curacao – operated at only 31% in Q118.
  • Zambia has reportedly shortlisted five companies, including Glencore and Sahara Energy Resources, to purchase a majority stake in the country’s sole 24 kb/d Indeni refinery.
  • Kazakhstan is looking to upgrade its refineries in a modernisation drive that will lower its fuel oil exports by 35% as it focuses on higher value products. Upgrades at the Pavlodar refinery have been completed, with the Atyrau and Shymkent refineries expected later this year.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • BP and Reliance has formally sanctioned development of the deepwater gas ‘Satellite cluster’ in India’s offshore Block KG D6, the second of three projects to be developed in the integrated KG D6 development.
  • LNG exports from PNG LNG has resumed after a devastating earthquake, with the first export cargo departing from Port Moresby.
  • Having found success elsewhere on the Mediterranean, Eni is now looking at spending ‘billions’ in Algeria over the next three years to expand gas production in partnership with Sonatrach.
  • Australia’s Northern Territory has lifted a two-year moratorium on fracking, potentially unlocking huge onshore shale gas reserves.
  • Eni is moving ahead with the offshore Merakes field in Indonesia after its development plan was approved by the country’s upstream watchdog.
  • Petronas has made its first LNG delivery to South Korea’s S-Oil under a 15-year, 700 mtpa contract.

Corporate

  • With Q1 earnings filtering in, Schlumberger’s reporting of an 88% rise in net profit points to a healthy season for the industry, particularly on the service side, with revenue also jumping by 52% to US$2.84 billion.
  • Indonesia has stepped into Pertamina affairs once again, removing Chief Executive Elia Massa Manik after a recent oil spill and slow progress on refinery development plans. Nicke Widyawati will assume temporary stewardship, as Manik leaves along with four other directors.
  • BP and Petrobras have signed an MoU to ‘explore areas of cooperation’, which will cover upstream, downstream, trading and low carbon plans both inside and outside of Brazil.
  • Total has purchased French power utility company Direct Energie, as it follows in Shell's footsteps to expand for an electric future.

oilandgas oilandgasnews weeklyupdate news
3
4 0

Something interesting to share?
Join NrgEdge and create your own NrgBuzz today

Latest NrgBuzz

China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves

After the OPEC+ club met on September 1st,  and confirmed that it would be sticking to its plan of increasing its crude supply by 400,000 b/d a month through December, China made a rather unusual announcement. It announced that it was going to release some crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserves, selling it to domestic refiners that were grappling with crude’s heady price rise over 2021. The release of strategic oil reserves isn’t news in itself. What is news is that the usually secretive China did it and did it publicly.

And it did it to send a message to OPEC+: attempts to create artificial scarcity to maintain crude prices will not be tolerated. China has a right to feel that way. Even though great strides have been made to ease the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide, the virus is still exerting major effects on the global economy. Not least a massive ripple through the health of global supply chains that has seen the price of almost everything – plastics, semiconductors, agricultural commodity, lumber, steel – spike due to supply issues. In some cases, the prices of raw materials are at historic highs. Crude oil is still nowhere near its peak of above US$100/b, but it is high enough to be concerning, especially since it is happening within a major inflationary environment. And for a manufacturing-heavy economy like China, that matters. That matters a lot. So China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves announced that it would be releasing some of the country’s crude stocks to ‘better stabilise domestic market supply and demand, and effectively guarantee the country’s energy security’, a month after the country’s producer price inflation – ie. the cost of manufacturing – hit a 13-year high.

China made good on that promise, releasing 7.38 million barrels from its stockpile to domestic bidders on September 24 with more tranches expected. This was the first ever recorded release from China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which began back in 2009 in serendipitous response to crude oil prices exceeding the US$100/b mark for the first time in 2008. But curiously, it may not have been the first ever release. So secretive is the SPR that China does not reveal the size of the reserve, although analysts have estimated it at some 300-400 million barrels with total capacity of 500 million barrels using satellite imaging. It has been speculated that batches of crude from the SPR have been released before on the quiet. But this is the first time China has gone public. Compared to the country’s overall oil consumption, 7.38 million barrels is small, almost tiny. And even if additional supplies are released, it will not make a major impact on China’s oil balances. But the message is what is important.

It is a message that China is not alone in sending. US President Joe Biden has already called on OPEC+ to accelerate its supply easing plans, given indications that the crude glut built up over 2020 has been all but erased. It is a notion that would be supported by some OPEC+ members – Russia, Mexico, the UAE – but so far, the discipline advocated by Saudi Arabia has held. The US too has attempted to release of its own crude reserve stocks – the largest in the world with a capacity of 727 million barrels – but this was also in response to the devastating impact of Hurricane Ida. India, China’s closest analogue to size and stage, has been complaining too. As a major oil importer and with a shakier economic situation, India is particularly sensitive to oil price swings. US$70/b is way above what New Delhi is comfortable with. But since India’s appeals to OPEC+ have fallen on deaf ears, it is attempting domestic directives instead. India’s state refiners have been ordered to reduce crude purchases from the Middle East, but with supply tight, there aren’t many other people to buy from. India has also been selling oil from its strategic reserve – officially stated to be for clearing space to lease storage capacity to refiners – although since India is more transparent about these announcements, the announcement isn’t as surprising.

Will it work? At least immediately, no. Crude prices did come under pressure in the wake of China’s announcement, but then recovered with Brent hitting US$75/b. But the fact that China timed the announcement of the September 24 auction to coincide with peak global trading time and with a lot of details (again an unusual move) shows that Beijing is serious about wielding its strategic reserves as weapons. If not to moderate crude prices, then to at least stabilise it. But this is a war of attrition. China may very well have a planned schedule to release more crude reserves over 2021 and 2022 if prices remain high, but its supplies are finite. And they will have to eventually be replenished, possibly at an even higher cost if the attempt to quell crude price inflation fails. Thus far, the details of the SPR release hint that this is a tentative dip in the pool: the volume of 7.38 million barrels was far lower than the 35-70 million barrels predicted by some market participants. And because successful bidders can lift the oil up to December 10, it seems unlikely that a second auction for 2021 is in concrete plans at this point.

But, at the very least, the message has been sent. Beijing has a tool that it can wield if crude prices get out of hand, and it is not afraid to use it. The first step might have been small, and it is a giant leap in what mechanics are available to influence crude prices. And as history has proven, China can be very quick to scale up and very single-minded in its approach. Over to you, OPEC+.

End of Article

Follow us for weekly updates!  

Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$73-76/b, WTI – US$71-74/b
  • Global crude benchmarks retain their strength, with Brent zipping past US$75/b, as supply-side issues and healthy demand continue to reverberate
  • After Hurricane Ida, US upstream players have gradually brought back some 70% of Gulf of Mexico production, easing some supply concerns, but a standoff between Libya’s Ministry of Oil and National Oil Corp could disrupt Libyan output

No alt text provided for this image

Learn more about this training course

September, 23 2021
Chicago Cubs Shirts: Wear Style with Ultimate Comfort!

For most people, embracing style can be really overwhelming. The bodycon dress might look fabulous but what about comfort? This type of dress clasp all the body and sometimes it becomes really hard to take a fine breath! In fact, the satin cloths that look super lustrous and voguish, but only the person who is wearing that knows how uneasiness feels like. Moreover, these types of clothing can not be worn on all occasions. You literally have to pick the right piece of outfit according to a specific occasion keeping the ambiance of the situation in mind. This is simply the reason, why ladies always complain that they have nothing to wear. To save people from this fashion crisis, sport wears emerges to be the ultimate lifesaver and in this connection, the mention must be made of Chicago Cubs Shirts.


This exclusive range of sportswear apparel is now currently flooding the market with exceptionally designed shirts that can be worn by people of all ages, gender and fashion taste. They are affordable and comfortable at the same time. Chicago Cubs Shirts adopt the classic sport design with exceptionally hemmed collar shapes that are sober and fashionable at the same time. The trend of sportswear can never be old and apart from sports lovers, people who worship fashion are now greatly turning their heads towards the contemplation of sporty shirts. Although they have a very simple design, they look highly versatile on everyone. 


Whether you are partying, enjoying social gathering, attending boring lectures, going on a date, traveling or just chilling at your couch with a cozy blanket, Chicago Cubs Shirts can be worn at any time and any situation. The material of the cloth is extremely comfortable and they are breathable. The shirts keep you from over sweating and at the same time, it allows you to look super cool in a sober manner. To know more please visit the websitehttps://www.sportsworldchicago.com/Chicago_Cubs_Shirts/


September, 16 2021
The New Wave of Renewable Fuels

In 2021, the makeup of renewables has also changed drastically. Technologies such as solar and wind are no longer novel, as is the idea of blending vegetable oils into road fuels or switching to electric-based vehicles. Such ideas are now entrenched and are not considered enough to shift the world into a carbon neutral future. The new wave of renewables focus on converting by-products from other carbon-intensive industries into usable fuels. Research into such technologies has been pioneered in universities and start-ups over the past two decades, but the impetus of global climate goals is now seeing an incredible amount of money being poured into them as oil & gas giants seek to rebalance their portfolios away from pure hydrocarbons with a goal of balancing their total carbon emissions in aggregate to zero.

Traditionally, the European players have led this drive. Which is unsurprising, since the EU has been the most driven in this acceleration. But even the US giants are following suit. In the past year, Chevron has poured an incredible amount of cash and effort in pioneering renewables. Its motives might be less than altruistic, shareholders across America have been particularly vocal about driving this transformation but the net results will be positive for all.

Chevron’s recent efforts have focused on biomethane, through a partnership with global waste solutions company Brightmark. The joint venture Brightmark RNG Holdings operations focused on convert cow manure to renewable natural gas, which are then converted into fuel for long-haul trucks, the very kind that criss-cross the vast highways of the US delivering goods from coast to coast. Launched in October 2020, the joint venture was extended and expanded in August, now encompassing 38 biomethane plants in seven US states, with first production set to begin later in 2021. The targeting of livestock waste is particularly crucial: methane emissions from farms is the second-largest contributor to climate change emissions globally. The technology to capture methane from manure (as well as landfills and other waste sites) has existed for years, but has only recently been commercialised to convert methane emissions from decomposition to useful products.

This is an arena that another supermajor – BP – has also made a recent significant investment in. BP signed a 15-year agreement with CleanBay Renewables to purchase the latter’s renewable natural gas (RNG) to be mixed and sold into select US state markets. Beginning with California, which has one of the strictest fuel standards in the US and provides incentives under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reduce carbon intensity – CleanBay’s RNG is derived not from cows, but from poultry. Chicken manure, feathers and bedding are all converted into RNG using anaerobic digesters, providing a carbon intensity that is said to be 95% less than the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of pure fossil fuels and non-conversion of poultry waste matter. BP also has an agreement with Gevo Inc in Iowa to purchase RNG produced from cow manure, also for sale in California.

But road fuels aren’t the only avenue for large-scale embracing of renewables. It could take to the air, literally. After all, the global commercial airline fleet currently stands at over 25,000 aircraft and is expected to grow to over 35,000 by 2030. All those planes will burn a lot of fuel. With the airline industry embracing the idea of AAF (or Alternative Aviation Fuels), developments into renewable jet fuels have been striking, from traditional bio-sources such as palm or soybean oil to advanced organic matter conversion from agricultural waste and manure. Chevron, again, has signed a landmark deal to advance the commercialisation. Together with Delta Airlines and Google, Chevron will be producing a batch of sustainable aviation fuel at its El Segundo refinery in California. Delta will then use the fuel, with Google providing a cloud-based framework to analyse the data. That data will then allow for a transparent analysis into carbon emissions from the use of sustainable aviation fuel, as benchmark for others to follow. The analysis should be able to confirm whether or not the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s estimates that renewable jet fuel can reduce lifecycle carbon intensity by up to 80%. And to strengthen the measure, Delta has pledged to replace 10% of its jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.

In a parallel, but no less pioneering lane, France’s TotalEnergies has announced that it is developing a 100% renewable fuel for use in motorsports, using bioethanol sourced from residues produced by the French wine industry (among others) at its Feyzin refinery in Lyon. This, it believes, will reduce the racing sports’ carbon emissions by an immediate 65%. The fuel, named Excellium Racing 100, is set to debut at the next season of the FIA World Endurance Championship, which includes the iconic 24 Hours of Le Mans 2022 race.

But Chevron isn’t done yet. It is also falling back on the long-standing use of vegetable oils blended into US transport fuels by signing a wide-ranging agreement with commodity giant Bunge. Called a ‘farmer-to-fuelling station’ solution, Bunge’s soybean processing facilities in Louisiana and Illinois will be the source of meal and oil that will be converted by Chevron into diesel and jet fuel. With an investment of US$600 million, Chevron will assist Bunge in doubling the combined capacity of both plants by 2024, in line with anticipated increases in the US biofuels blending mandates.

Even ExxonMobil, one of the most reticent of the supermajors to embrace renewables wholesale, is getting in on the action. Its Imperial Oil subsidiary in Canada has announced plans to commercialise renewable diesel at a new facility near Edmonton using plant-based feedstock and hydrogen. The venture does only target the Canadian market – where political will to drive renewable adoption is far higher than in the US – but similar moves have already been adopted by other refiners for the US market, including major investments by Phillips 66 and Valero.

Ultimately, these recent moves are driven out of necessity. This is the way the industry is moving and anyone stubborn enough to ignore it will be left behind. Combined with other major investments driven by European supermajors over the past five years, this wider and wider adoption of renewable can only be better for the planet and, eventually, individual bottom lines. The renewables ball is rolling fast and is only gaining momentum.

End of Article

Follow us for weekly updates! 

Market Outlook:

  • Crude price trading range: Brent – US$71-73/b, WTI – US$68-70/b
  • Global crude benchmarks have stayed steady, even as OPEC+ sticks to its plans to ease supply quotas against the uncertainty of rising Covid-19 cases worldwide
  • However, the success of vaccination drives has kindled hope that the effect of lockdowns – if any – will be mild, with pockets of demand resurgence in Europe; in China, where there has been a zero-tolerance drive to stamp out Covid outbreaks, fuel consumption is strengthening again, possibly tightening fuel balances in Q4
  • Meanwhile, much of the US Gulf of Mexico crude production remains hampered by the effects of Hurricane Ida, providing a counter-balance on the supply side

No alt text provided for this image

Learn more about this course

September, 16 2021