EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel (b) in 2018, $7/b higher than last month’s STEO. Correspondingly, EIA’s forecast for regular gasoline retail prices increased to an average of $2.79/gallon (g) in 2018, $0.15/g higher that in last month’s STEO. Monthly average Brent crude oil spot prices have increased in 9 of the past 10 months, most recently averaging $72/b in April.
EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $5/b lower than Brent prices in 2018. Even though WTI is a domestic crude benchmark and Brent is an international benchmark, gasoline prices in the United States tend to follow Brent. In late April 2018, daily spot prices for Brent crude oil reached $76/b, the highest level in nearly four years.
Crude oil prices have probably been driven higher for three reasons: falling global oil inventories, heightened market perceptions of geopolitical risks, and strong global economic growth signals.
EIA estimates that global oil inventories fell an average of nearly 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in each of the past five quarters (January 2017 through March 2018). Oil inventories for countries within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at the end of April were an estimated 3% lower than the previous five-year average (2013–2017) in terms of days of supply, the largest percentage below the five-year average since March 2014.
In April, when EIA developed the May STEO, several geopolitical risks presented sources of uncertainty. These risks, including the re-imposition of oil sanctions against Iran and the upcoming results of May elections in Venezuela, may materialize into actions that remove oil supplies from the global market and, in turn, tighten global oil balances.
Since the publication of the May STEO, the United States announced that it would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This news and resulting price movements are not reflected in the May STEO, issued May 8, but EIA will consider these developments when formulating the June STEO.
At the same time, global liquid fuels consumption is quickly increasing. EIA estimates global oil consumption-weighted gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2018 will be at its highest rate since 2012. Greater GDP growth has the potential to increase oil consumption beyond forecasted levels, which could put upward pressure on crude oil prices, and simultaneously drive systemic market movements in equities, bonds, and other commodities, which are often correlated with movements in crude oil prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2018
More information about EIA’s forecasts for near-term energy consumption, production, prices, and more is available in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
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Already, lubricant players have established their footholds here in Bangladesh, with international brands.
However, the situation is being tough as too many brands entered in this market. So, it is clear, the lubricants brands are struggling to sustain their market shares.
For this reason, we recommend an impression of “Lubricants shelf” to evaluate your brand visibility, which can a key indicator of the market shares of the existing brands.
Every retailer shop has different display shelves and the sellers place different product cans for the end-users. By nature, the sellers have the sole control of those shelves for the preferred product cans.The idea of “Lubricants shelf” may give the marketer an impression, how to penetrate in this competitive market.
The well-known lubricants brands automatically seized the product shelves because of the user demand. But for the struggling brands, this idea can be a key identifier of the business strategy to take over other brands.
The key objective of this impression of “Lubricants shelf” is to create an overview of your brand positioning in this competitive market.
A discussion on Lubricants Shelves; from the evaluation perspective, a discussion ground has been created to solely represent this trade, as well as its other stakeholders.Why “Lubricants shelf” is key to monitor engine oil market?
The lubricants shelves of the overall market have already placed more than 100 brands altogether and the number of brands is increasing day by day.
And the situation is being worsened while so many by name products are taking the different shelves of different clusters. This market has become more overstated in terms of brand names and local products.
You may argue with us; lubricants shelves have no more space to place your new brands. You might get surprised by hearing such a statement. For your information, it’s not a surprising one.
Regularly, lubricants retailers have to welcome the representatives of newly entered brands.
And, business Insiders has depicted this lubricants market as a silent trade with a lot of floating traders.
On an assumption, the annual domestic demand for lubricants oils is around 100 million litres, whereas base oil demand around 140 million litres.
However, the lack of market monitoring and the least reporting makes the lubricants trade unnoticeable to the public.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 11 February 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$52/b
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