Easwaran Kanason

Co - founder of NrgEdge
Last Updated: May 17, 2018
1 view
Business Trends

American sanctions have been re-imposed on Iran on May 8, 2018, four days ahead of President Trump’s deadline of May 12, 2018. The move spurns America’s traditional close relationship in foreign affairs with the EU and swerves towards Saudi Arabia’s capitulations and Israel’s strategic spooking.  It also provides Trump with a certain amount of populist support domestically.

Worries over U.S. sanctions on major oil producer Iran propelled crude prices past $80 a barrel on the 17th May 2018. Crude oil prices jumped on the initial announcement, rising to their highest level in four years, with the WTI past US$70/b. Asian countries are set to feel the pinch as their oil consumption bill reaches $1 trillion as crude prices break through $80 per barrel, Reuters reports. 

With all pre-JCPOA sanctions now in place by the US, American has given international firms 3-6 months to wind down all purchases of Iranian crude. This coincides with the current wind-down schedule of the OPEC/NOPEC production freeze deal, which could allow members like Saudi Arabia to raise production at the expense of curbed demand for Iranian crude. But sailing is not smooth. A European pushback has begun, with a likely response being an EU-wide blocking statute that would effectively allow EU companies to ignore US sanctions. And even if that doesn’t work, China and India have far more clout than they did in 2012, with Iran already announcing that China’s CNPC will take over if France’s Total is compelled to exit the South Pars gas project. French oil major Total has recently announced that it will not be able to continue with the contract related to the South Pars 11 (SP11) project unless it gets a waiver protecting it from U.S. sanctions after the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal. 

The US has once again left the door open for countries to seek ‘significant reduction exceptions’ from the sanctions – a clause introduced during the initial 2012 sanctions that allowed countries, mainly Asian nations, to keep receiving Iranian crude. Back then, the waiver was reviewed every 180 days; there is no reason not to expect a similar policy this time, which would allow key buyers like Japan, South Korea and China to keep their Iranian crude volumes flowing. The developing EU rebellion against US moves will also severely diminish effectiveness – sanctions are only successful when supported in majority, and it increasingly appears that the US is going to be a lone wolf this time round.

The main question also remains – what is the end-game? Iran is already in compliance with the JCPOA according to the United Nations, so what does Trump hope to push Iran to achieve beyond what has been agreed and actually implemented? Increasingly, this seems like another attempt undo agreements signed off by the previous Obama administration.  Crude bulls, however, should be happy for now.

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