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Total liquid fuels inventories return to five-year average levels in the United States and the OECD


The extended period of oversupply in global petroleum markets that began before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) November 2016 agreement to cut production has ended, and the large buildup of global inventories during that period has now been drawn down. As OPEC plans to reconvene on June 22, markets now appear more in balance, but uncertainty remains going forward.


The November 2016 OPEC supply agreement took effect in January 2017, whereby OPEC member countries agreed to reduce crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) compared with October 2016 levels and to limit total OPEC production to 32.5 million b/d. In addition, Russia agreed to reduce its crude oil production. OPEC extended the agreement in November 2017, with the production cuts remaining in place until the end of 2018.


Since January 2017, one of the primary indicators of a tightening world oil market has been a decline in crude oil and other liquids inventories. After sustained increases in quarterly global liquid inventories from mid-2014 through most of 2016, inventories declined throughout 2017 and into the first quarter of 2018 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. World liquids fuels production and consumption balance


Data for global petroleum inventories are not collected directly. Instead, increases or decreases in global inventories are implied based on the difference between world production and world consumption estimates. However, inventory data for the United States and for countries within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are available and can indicate what is happening globally.


From January 2017 to April 2018, U.S. crude oil and other liquids inventories decreased by 162 million barrels while OECD inventories decreased by 234 million barrels. Over this same period, U.S. and OECD crude oil and other liquids inventories moved from 229 million barrels and 334 million barrels, respectively, higher than their five-year averages to 16 million barrels and 2 million barrels lower (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Commercial crude oil and other liquids inventory versus five-year average

Between the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, estimated total world petroleum and other liquids production rose 1.6 million b/d. OECD petroleum and other liquids production rose 1.3 million b/d, and most of this growth came from increased crude oil production in the United States, which increased by 1.2 million b/d, from 9.0 million b/d to 10.2 million b/d. Total OPEC petroleum (crude and other liquids) production increased by 0.4 million b/d over this period. Total OPEC crude oil production remained lower than the 32.5 million b/d agreement level, increasing 0.27 million b/d to 32.4 million b/d.


Total world petroleum and other liquids consumption, on the other hand, increased by an estimated 1.9 million b/d between the first quarters of 2017 and 2018, exceeding the growth in production and resulting in inventory declines. This consumption growth occurred primarily in the United States (0.6 million b/d), China (0.5 million b/d), and other Non-OECD Asia (0.6 million b/d) (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Change in world petroleum production and consumption Q1 2017 to Q1 2018


The days of supply measure (current inventory level divided by next month’s estimated consumption) provides additional insight into market balances. Between January 2017 and April 2017, U.S. and OECD crude oil days of supply fell by 11.5 and 4.5 days, respectively, to 59.2 and 60.6 days. U.S. crude oil and other liquids days of supply fell from 12 days higher than the five-year average to 3.6 days lower. OECD crude oil and other liquids days of supply dropped from 7.4 days higher than the five-year average to 1.6 days lower (Figure 4).

Figure 4. U.S. and OECD crude oil and other liquids days of supply versus five-year average


EIA forecasts that the tightening trend in global petroleum markets will reverse. In the May 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that both U.S. and OECD petroleum and other liquids inventories will return to surpluses compared with their five-year averages, although on a smaller scale compared with the period between 2015 and 2016. U.S. and OECD days of supply are forecast to remain in a band that is close to the five-year average level through 2019. However, additional uncertainty about future global oil market balances remains in light of, among other factors, the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the continued instability in Venezuela.


U.S. average diesel price increases


The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price for May 14, 2018 was $2.87 per gallon. Please note that on May 14, 2018, EIA implemented new statistical methodologies for conducting the Motor Gasoline Price Survey. Because of these changes, the published price estimates this week are not directly comparable with those published for May 7, 2018, which were based on EIA’s previous sample.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased nearly 7 cents to $3.24 per gallon on May 14, 2018, nearly 70 cents higher than a year ago. Midwest prices rose over eight cents to almost $3.18 per gallon, West Coast and Rocky Mountain prices each rose nearly seven cents to $3.73 per gallon and $3.32 per gallon, respectively, and East Coast and Gulf Coast prices each rose nearly six cents to $3.24 per gallon and $3.01 per gallon, respectively.


Propane/propylene inventories rise


U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels last week to 40.4 million barrels as of May 11, 2018, 12.3 million barrels (23.4%) lower than the five-year average inventory level for this same time of year. Midwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels, 0.6 million barrels, and 0.4 million barrels, respectively, while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 7.2% of total propane/propylene inventories.


For questions about This Week in Petroleum, contact the Petroleum Markets Team at 202-586-4522.

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Nigeria’s Energy Focus Must Change From Crude Oil to Gas – Dr Chukwueloka Umeh

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Think about this – imagine every Nigerian holding a 20W light bulb, that’s how much power we generate in Nigeria. In comparison, South Africa generates 42,000MW of power for a population of 57 million. We have the capacity to produce over 2 million Metric Tonnes of fertilizer (primarily urea) per year but we still import fertilizer. The Federal Government’s initiative to rejuvenate the agriculture sector is definitely the right thing to do for our economy, but fertilizer must be readily available to support the industry. Why do we import fertilizer when we have so much gas?

I could go on and on with these statistics, but you can see where I’m going with this so I won’t belabor the point. I will leave you with this mental image: imagine a man that lives with his family on the banks of a river that has fresh, clean water. Rather than collect and use this water directly from the river, he treks over 20km each day to buy bottled water from a company that collects the same water, bottles it and sells to him at a profit. This is the tragedy on Nigeria and it should make us all very sad.

Several indigenous companies like Nestoil were born and grown by the opportunities created by the local and international oil majors – NNPC and its subsidiaries – NGC, NAPIMS, Shell, Mobil, Agip, NDPHC. Nestoil’s main focus is the Engineering Procurement Construction and Commissioning of oil and gas pipelines and flowstations, essentially, infrastructure that supports upstream companies to produce and transport oil and natural gas, as well as and downstream companies to store and move their product. In our 28 years of doing business, we have built over 300km of pipelines of various sizes through the harshest terrain, ranging from dry land to seasonal swamp, to pure swamps, as well as some of the toughest and most volatile and hostile communities in Nigeria. I would be remiss if I do not use this opportunity to say a big thank you to those companies that gave us the opportunity to serve you. The over 2,000 direct staff and over 50,000 indirect staff we employ thank you. We are very grateful for the past opportunities given to us, and look forward to future opportunities that we can get.

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July, 19 2019
Your Weekly Update: 15 - 19 July 2019

Market Watch 

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 15 July 2019 – Brent: US$66/b; WTI: US$59/b

  • Global oil prices gained as US crude inventories shrank more than expected and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico threatened American offshore production
  • Tropical Storm Barry – which became a hurricane on landfall in Louisiana – was in the path of up to a third of Gulf of Mexico crude output, prompting producers to shut down most of their operations; resumption of normal service has begun
  • At the same time, US crude oil stockpiles fell by almost 10 million barrels, far more than expected, with US refineries ramping up production ahead of summer demand to add some bullishness to the market
  • The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have not escalated further yet, but Iran has vowed to continue retaliating against the British seizure of its crude tanker in the Mediterranean off Gibraltar
  • These factors have been enough to keep current crude prices trending higher, but oil producing club OPEC warns that the market will swing back into surplus next year, estimating that it is currently producing 560,000 b/d more than will be needed without even factoring in rising US shale production
  • In Venezuela, where oil production has been crippled by sanctions, Chevron is reportedly seeking a waiver to continue operating in the country after the current waiver expires in July 27
  • The US active oil and gas rig count fell once again, shedding a net five rigs (including 4 oil rigs) as merely stable prices reduced the appetite for investment; the total active rig count is now 958, 96 sites lower than this period last year
  • As the threat of Tropical Storm Barry abated, crude prices fell back in line. Without any further disruptions on the horizon, Brent should trend in the US$62-64/b range and WTI in the US$55-57 range


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Norway’s Equinor has bought a 16% stake in Swedish upstream firm Lundin Petroleum for US$650 million, which gains it an additional 2.6% interest in the giant Johan Sverdrup oil field bringing Equinor’s total stake up to 42.6%
  • Inpex has picked up the exploration permit for Block AC/P66 in Australia’s Northwest Shelf, which lies in the vicinity of existing promising oil fields
  • US independent Callon Petroleum Company has acquired Carrizo Oil & Gas for US$3.2 billion, deepening its holdings in the Permian and Eagle Ford shale basins, including 90,000 net acres in the prolific Delaware Basin
  • Total has agreed to divest several of its non-core assets in the UK – covering the Balloch, Dumbarton, Lochranza, Drumtochty, Flyndre, Affleck, Cawdow, GoldenEagle, Scott and Telford fields – to Petrogas NEO for US$635 million
  • CNOOC and Sinopec has signed a new agreement to collaborate on exploration activities in the Bohai Basin, Beibu Gulf, North Jiangsu and South Yellow Sea
  • Murphy Oil has completed the sale of its Malaysian upstream assets to a unit of Thailand’s PTTEP for US$2.035 billion for five offshore projects in Sabah
  • Seven upstream discoveries were made in Colombia in 2Q19, making it the market with the most discoveries during the period, leading India, Russia and Pakistan which each made three new oil and gas finds
  • Turkey has vowed to continue drilling offshore Cyprus unless a cooperation proposal between Turkish and Greek Cypriots is accepted
  • Encana is reportedly selling off its assets in eastern Oklahoma’s Arkoma Basin for US$165 million in cash to an undisclosed buyer
  • Sinopec is hunting for partners or buyers for its Buck Lake assets in Alberta’s Duvernay shale basin in Canada, to reduce its current full ownership

Midstream/Downstream

  • The Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Wolf has ruled out using state funds to save the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery after it was shuttered following a massive fire that took out the entire site last month
  • Blackouts hit Venezuela’s Amuay and Cardon refineries, bringing the 955,000 b/d Paraguana refining Center to a complete halt on total lack of power
  • Chevron Phillips Chemical (CP Chem) and Qatar Petroleum have agreed to develop a new 2 mtpa petrochemical complex on the US Gulf Coast, with the US Gulf Coast II Petrochemical Project drawing on NGLs from the Permian
  • Marathon Petroleum will shut down the gasoline FCCU unit at its 585,000 b/d Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas for up to 8 weeks for repairs

Natural Gas/LNG

  • Total has agreed to buy NG from Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana in two separate deals – 1 million tons per annum for Total Gas & Power North America and 1.5 mtpa for Total Gas & Power – as well as invest US$500 million in Driftwood Holdings LP
  • Mozambique has put on hold plans to raise funds for its stake in the Anadarko-led Mozambique LNG project, citing current bad market conditions
  • ExxonMobil and Lucid Energy Group have agreed to collaborate on a long-term natural gas gathering and processing project, bringing natural gas from New Mexico’s Delaware Basin to the South Carlsbad gas processing system before being delivered to ExxonMobil’s downstream facilities in the US Gulf Coast
July, 19 2019
Iran drives unplanned OPEC crude oil production outage to highest levels since late 2015

Unplanned crude oil production outages for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2019, the highest six-month average since the end of 2015. EIA estimates that in June, Iran alone accounted for more than 60% (1.7 million b/d) of all OPEC unplanned outages.

EIA differentiates among declines in production resulting from unplanned production outages, permanent losses of production capacity, and voluntary production cutbacks for OPEC members. Only the first of those categories is included in the historical unplanned production outage estimates that EIA publishes in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Unplanned production outages include, but are not limited to, sanctions, armed conflicts, political disputes, labor actions, natural disasters, and unplanned maintenance. Unplanned outages can be short-lived or last for a number of years, but as long as the production capacity is not lost, EIA tracks these disruptions as outages rather than lost capacity.

Loss of production capacity includes natural capacity declines and declines resulting from irreparable damage that are unlikely to return within one year. This lost capacity cannot contribute to global supply without significant investment and lead time.

Voluntary cutbacks are associated with OPEC production agreements and only apply to OPEC members. Voluntary cutbacks count toward the country’s spare capacity but are not counted as unplanned production outages.

EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity—which only applies to OPEC members adhering to OPEC production agreements—as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. EIA does not include unplanned crude oil production outages in its assessment of spare production capacity.

As an example, EIA considers Iranian production declines that result from U.S. sanctions to be unplanned production outages, making Iran a significant contributor to the total OPEC unplanned crude oil production outages. During the fourth quarter of 2015, before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action became effective in January 2016, EIA estimated that an average 800,000 b/d of Iranian production was disrupted. In the first quarter of 2019, the first full quarter since U.S. sanctions on Iran were re-imposed in November 2018, Iranian disruptions averaged 1.2 million b/d.

Another long-term contributor to EIA’s estimate of OPEC unplanned crude oil production outages is the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Production halted there in 2014 because of a political dispute between the two countries. EIA attributes half of the PNZ’s estimated 500,000 b/d production capacity to each country.

In the July 2019 STEO, EIA only considered about 100,000 b/d of Venezuela’s 130,000 b/d production decline from January to February as an unplanned crude oil production outage. After a series of ongoing nationwide power outages in Venezuela that began on March 7 and cut electricity to the country's oil-producing areas, EIA estimates that PdVSA, Venezuela’s national oil company, could not restart the disrupted production because of deteriorating infrastructure, and the previously disrupted 100,000 b/d became lost capacity.

July, 18 2019