FRANKFURT and BRUSSELS (Bloomberg) -- As Donald Trump’s trade policy risks worsening economic conflict with the European Union, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is strengthening ties with the region.
Putin will mark 50 years of gas exports to Europe at an event in Vienna on Tuesday. A controversial 9.5 billion-euro ($11 billion) pipeline to feed more supplies from Siberia directly into Germany is progressing despite a U.S. sanctions threat. And Moscow-based Gazprom PJSC last month settled a seven-year-old pricing dispute with the European Union, enabling it to expand its market share.
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In our International Energy Outlook 2021, we project that global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase for countries both inside and outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the next 30 years under current laws and regulations. Between 2020 and 2050, we project that total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% (600 million metric tons) in OECD countries (which generally have slowly growing economies) and by 35% (8 billion metric tons) in non-OECD countries (which generally have rapidly growing economies).
We project that carbon intensity, measured as emissions per unit of primary energy consumption, will decrease in both OECD and non-OECD countries through 2050. A region’s fuel mix largely determines its carbon intensity, and our projection of carbon intensity decreases around the world as use of renewable energy grows and use of coal is reduced in many countries. We project average aggregate carbon intensity in non-OECD countries to be higher than in the OECD over the next 30 years because non-OECD countries will likely continue to use primarily fossil fuel-fired generation to support their more rapid economic growth over this time.
We also project that energy intensity, the energy consumed per dollar of GDP, will decline globally through 2050. Driven by technology and shifts away from energy-intensive industries in many economies, increased energy efficiency results in lower energy intensity. In the non-OECD region, economic growth results in a faster decline of energy intensity than in the OECD region. By 2050, the energy intensity of OECD and non-OECD countries becomes more similar as some non-OECD countries increase their share of less energy-intensive industries and their technology use becomes more similar to OECD countries.
Emissions-related policies also influence projections in energy-related CO2 emissions. Required efficiency, fuel, and technology goals are generally more prevalent in OECD countries, contributing to the relatively slower growth in emissions for the OECD relative to the non-OECD countries.
For more information on our projections of international energy-related CO2 emissions, refer to our International Energy Outlook 2021.
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Reference case, we project that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, global energy consumption will increase nearly 50% over the next 30 years. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the world’s largest energy source in 2050, renewable energy sources, which include solar and wind, will grow to nearly the same level.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021
Falling technology costs and government policies that provide incentives for renewables will lead to the growth of renewable electricity generation to meet growing electricity demand. As a result, renewables will be the fastest-growing energy source for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We project that coal and nuclear use will decrease in OECD countries, although the decrease will be more than offset by increased coal and nuclear use in non-OECD countries.
We project that global use of petroleum and other liquids will return to pre-pandemic (2019) levels by 2023, driven entirely by growth in non-OECD energy consumption. We do not project OECD liquid fuel use to return to pre-pandemic levels at any point in the next 30 years, in part because of increased fuel efficiency.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021 Reference case
Note: Delivered consumption includes fuels directly used by the end-use sectors as well as electricity, excluding generation, transmission, and distribution losses.
We project that the industrial sector will increasingly consume petroleum liquids as feedstock in the expanding chemicals industry. In OECD countries, liquid fuel consumption in the industrial sector will grow three times as fast as liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector.
Delivered electricity consumption will grow the most in the residential end-use sector. We project that in non-OECD countries, electricity will account for more than half of the energy used in households by 2050, compared with 33% in 2020. In non-OECD commercial buildings, we project that electricity will make up an even larger share of energy consumption in 2050, at 64%.
Globally, we project increased consumption of natural gas through 2050. The industrial sector is the main contributor to the growth in global natural gas consumption through 2050 in our Reference case, largely in non-OECD countries. Across OECD countries, gains in energy efficiency will reduce household natural gas use by 2050. The industrial sector will use the largest share of both natural gas and coal among all end-use sectors. Industrial coal use will expand fastest in non-OECD countries, where energy-intensive industries such as iron and steel production are expanding more quickly than in OECD countries.