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OPEC/non-OPEC supply boost likely but keeps oil market on a knife-edge
A fortnight after an unexpected proposal to boost global oil supply by 1 million b/d emerged from a meeting of the Saudi and Russian energy ministers in St. Petersburg, the market has been left hanging in suspense as to whether or not it will be implemented.
The difference between a “yes” and a “no” has so far amounted to a spread of around $4/barrel for Brent futures, between a nervous market driving up prices towards the $80/bbl psychological mark and furiously selling off to pre-empt an increase in supply.
Should a production hike of 1 million b/d be agreed, we estimate a slump of another $4/barrel or so in Brent, cooling it to the low-$70s compared with the 42-month high close of $79.80 notched on May 23.
Between the two diametrically opposite options of raising output by 1 million b/d and keeping the current cuts intact, lies the possibility of agreeing a smaller boost, as we discussed in last weeks viewsletter. The increment would need to be at least more than 500,000 b/d. Anything less would be ineffective in countering the unintended losses from Venezuela and Iran, among others, likely leaving Brent in the mid-$70s, ready to spike again if the supply tightness worsens. As we have said before, even an increase of 1 million b/d is conservative.
Global oil production uncertainties are the highest since the Arab Spring took hold in 2011 and could swing the market into a supply shock that leaves OPEC struggling to plug the gap promptly, or worse, plugging it at all, given the group’s limited spare capacity.
These supply uncertainties arise from accelerating natural declines in conventional oil fields across the globe, amplified by sustained and severe cuts in upstream investment since 2015; delays and teething issues in the few greenfield oil projects coming online; and heightened geopolitical tensions haunting several major oil-producing countries.
Meanwhile, WTI has drifted off again, disconnecting from the global markets. August NYMEX WTI futures closed at a discount of $11.43/barrel to the corresponding ICE Brent contract on June 7, the widest since February 2015. WTI Midland, the price of tight oil in the prolific Permian basin, remains under pressure as surging production has bumped against pipeline takeaway capacity and the forward curve shows a dim view of wellhead prices until September 2019.
WTI Midland is also dragging down NYMEX WTI futures, which represent the value of barrels at the Cushing storage in Oklahoma. Such is the bearish outlook due to the Permian/Cushing bottleneck that not even a third consecutive weekly decline in Cushing stocks reported by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday provided any lift.
The drama around Venezuelan output and Iran sanctions has reached a crescendo. We bring you our perspective on the latest twists and what they mean for the ministers meeting in Vienna on June 22.
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In 2021, the makeup of renewables has also changed drastically. Technologies such as solar and wind are no longer novel, as is the idea of blending vegetable oils into road fuels or switching to electric-based vehicles. Such ideas are now entrenched and are not considered enough to shift the world into a carbon neutral future. The new wave of renewables focus on converting by-products from other carbon-intensive industries into usable fuels. Research into such technologies has been pioneered in universities and start-ups over the past two decades, but the impetus of global climate goals is now seeing an incredible amount of money being poured into them as oil & gas giants seek to rebalance their portfolios away from pure hydrocarbons with a goal of balancing their total carbon emissions in aggregate to zero.
Traditionally, the European players have led this drive. Which is unsurprising, since the EU has been the most driven in this acceleration. But even the US giants are following suit. In the past year, Chevron has poured an incredible amount of cash and effort in pioneering renewables. Its motives might be less than altruistic, shareholders across America have been particularly vocal about driving this transformation but the net results will be positive for all.
Chevron’s recent efforts have focused on biomethane, through a partnership with global waste solutions company Brightmark. The joint venture Brightmark RNG Holdings operations focused on convert cow manure to renewable natural gas, which are then converted into fuel for long-haul trucks, the very kind that criss-cross the vast highways of the US delivering goods from coast to coast. Launched in October 2020, the joint venture was extended and expanded in August, now encompassing 38 biomethane plants in seven US states, with first production set to begin later in 2021. The targeting of livestock waste is particularly crucial: methane emissions from farms is the second-largest contributor to climate change emissions globally. The technology to capture methane from manure (as well as landfills and other waste sites) has existed for years, but has only recently been commercialised to convert methane emissions from decomposition to useful products.
This is an arena that another supermajor – BP – has also made a recent significant investment in. BP signed a 15-year agreement with CleanBay Renewables to purchase the latter’s renewable natural gas (RNG) to be mixed and sold into select US state markets. Beginning with California, which has one of the strictest fuel standards in the US and provides incentives under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reduce carbon intensity – CleanBay’s RNG is derived not from cows, but from poultry. Chicken manure, feathers and bedding are all converted into RNG using anaerobic digesters, providing a carbon intensity that is said to be 95% less than the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of pure fossil fuels and non-conversion of poultry waste matter. BP also has an agreement with Gevo Inc in Iowa to purchase RNG produced from cow manure, also for sale in California.
But road fuels aren’t the only avenue for large-scale embracing of renewables. It could take to the air, literally. After all, the global commercial airline fleet currently stands at over 25,000 aircraft and is expected to grow to over 35,000 by 2030. All those planes will burn a lot of fuel. With the airline industry embracing the idea of AAF (or Alternative Aviation Fuels), developments into renewable jet fuels have been striking, from traditional bio-sources such as palm or soybean oil to advanced organic matter conversion from agricultural waste and manure. Chevron, again, has signed a landmark deal to advance the commercialisation. Together with Delta Airlines and Google, Chevron will be producing a batch of sustainable aviation fuel at its El Segundo refinery in California. Delta will then use the fuel, with Google providing a cloud-based framework to analyse the data. That data will then allow for a transparent analysis into carbon emissions from the use of sustainable aviation fuel, as benchmark for others to follow. The analysis should be able to confirm whether or not the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s estimates that renewable jet fuel can reduce lifecycle carbon intensity by up to 80%. And to strengthen the measure, Delta has pledged to replace 10% of its jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.
In a parallel, but no less pioneering lane, France’s TotalEnergies has announced that it is developing a 100% renewable fuel for use in motorsports, using bioethanol sourced from residues produced by the French wine industry (among others) at its Feyzin refinery in Lyon. This, it believes, will reduce the racing sports’ carbon emissions by an immediate 65%. The fuel, named Excellium Racing 100, is set to debut at the next season of the FIA World Endurance Championship, which includes the iconic 24 Hours of Le Mans 2022 race.
But Chevron isn’t done yet. It is also falling back on the long-standing use of vegetable oils blended into US transport fuels by signing a wide-ranging agreement with commodity giant Bunge. Called a ‘farmer-to-fuelling station’ solution, Bunge’s soybean processing facilities in Louisiana and Illinois will be the source of meal and oil that will be converted by Chevron into diesel and jet fuel. With an investment of US$600 million, Chevron will assist Bunge in doubling the combined capacity of both plants by 2024, in line with anticipated increases in the US biofuels blending mandates.
Even ExxonMobil, one of the most reticent of the supermajors to embrace renewables wholesale, is getting in on the action. Its Imperial Oil subsidiary in Canada has announced plans to commercialise renewable diesel at a new facility near Edmonton using plant-based feedstock and hydrogen. The venture does only target the Canadian market – where political will to drive renewable adoption is far higher than in the US – but similar moves have already been adopted by other refiners for the US market, including major investments by Phillips 66 and Valero.
Ultimately, these recent moves are driven out of necessity. This is the way the industry is moving and anyone stubborn enough to ignore it will be left behind. Combined with other major investments driven by European supermajors over the past five years, this wider and wider adoption of renewable can only be better for the planet and, eventually, individual bottom lines. The renewables ball is rolling fast and is only gaining momentum.
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