EIA expects Brent prices will average $71 per barrel in 2018 before declining to $68 per barrel in 2019
In the June 2018 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel (b) in 2018 and $68/b in 2019. The new 2019 forecast price is $2/b higher than in the May STEO. The increase reflects global oil markets balances that EIA expects to be tighter than previously forecast because of lowered expected production growth from both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the United States. Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $77/b in May, an increase of $5/b from April and the highest monthly average price since November 2014. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average almost $7/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2019 (Figure 1).
EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will average 32.0 million b/d in 2018, a decrease of about 0.4 million b/d compared with 2017. Total OPEC crude oil output is expected to increase slightly, however, to an average of 32.1 million b/d in 2019, despite expected falling production in Venezuela and Iran, along with decreasing output in a number of other countries.
OPEC, Russia, and other non-OPEC countries will meet on June 22, 2018, to assess current oil market conditions associated with their existing crude oil production reductions. Current reductions are scheduled to continue through the end of 2018. Oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia have announced that they will re-evaluate the production reduction agreement given accelerated output declines from Venezuela and uncertainty surrounding Iran’s production levels. In the June STEO, EIA assumes some supply increases from major oil producers in 2019. Depending on the outcome of the June 22 meeting, however, the magnitude of any supply response is uncertain. EIA currently forecasts global petroleum and other liquids inventories will increase by 210,000 b/d in 2019, which EIA expects will put modest downward pressure on crude oil prices in the second half of 2018 and in 2019.
EIA expects a decline in Iranian crude oil production and exports starting in November 2018, when many of the sanctions lifted in January 2016 are slated to be re-imposed. Iranian crude oil production is expected to fall by 0.2 million b/d in November 2018 compared with October and by an additional 0.5 million b/d in 2019.
The outlook for Venezuelan production is also lower than in the May STEO, with EIA now expecting larger declines in both 2018 and 2019 than previously forecasted. The seizure of state oil company PdVSA’s assets in the Caribbean by ConocoPhillips has diminished PdVSA’s ability to continue meeting its export obligations because it now must rely solely on domestic ports and ship-to-ship transfers to sustain crude oil exports. Venezuela’s domestic export infrastructure, however, is in disrepair and unable to accommodate the volume of exports previously handled out of its Caribbean facilities.
EIA expects that decreases in Iranian and Venezuelan production will be partially offset by increased production from Persian Gulf producers, most notably Saudi Arabia, which will likely increase production in an effort to offset Iranian production losses. Other sources of increasing production include Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, all of which have been restraining their crude oil output in compliance with the November 2016 OPEC/non-OPEC agreement on production cuts.
U.S. crude oil prices in both the Permian region and in Cushing, Oklahoma, traded at lower values relative to Brent in May, continuing the trend of constraints in transporting crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast for refining or for export, as discussed in the April and May STEOs. The Brent–WTI front-month futures price spread, in particular, widened to $11.43/b on June 7, the widest since February 2015. Although transportation constraints to the U.S. Gulf Coast are primarily affecting Permian Basin crude oils, the rapid increase in the Brent–WTI futures price spread in May and early June 2018 suggests some constraints are developing in crude oil transported from Cushing (where the WTI futures contract is delivered) to the Gulf Coast.
Because transportation options out of Cushing are limited, it remains uncertain how much the spread could narrow if Gulf Coast refiners increase refinery runs, which were lower than expected in May. In addition, U.S. crude oil exports are currently limited to higher-cost options which, unless port infrastructure buildout is expanded, will likely maintain a wide Brent–WTI spread. EIA is increasing its forecast of the Brent–WTI spot price spread for the second half of 2018 from $5.49/b to $7.67/b and for 2019 from $5.12/b to $5.79/b.
EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.7 million b/d in May 2018, up 80,000 b/d from the April level. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d for full-year 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.8 million b/d in 2019.
U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decrease
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price decreased nearly 3 cents from last week to $2.91 per gallon on June 11, 2018, up 55 cents from the same time last year. East Coast prices decreased nearly four cents to $2.84 per gallon, Midwest prices decreased three cents to $2.82 per gallon, Gulf Coast prices decreased nearly three cents to $2.70 per gallon, and West Coast and Rocky Mountain prices each decreased less than a penny to $3.45 per gallon and $2.99 per gallon, respectively.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased 2 cents from last week to $3.27 per gallon on June 11, 2018, 74 cents higher than a year ago. Midwest prices declined nearly three cents to $3.20 per gallon, while East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and Rocky Mountain prices each declined nearly two cents to $3.26 per gallon, $3.04 per gallon, $3.77 per gallon, and $3.34 per gallon, respectively.
Propane/propylene inventories rise
U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 3.7 million barrels last week to 50.8 million barrels as of June 8, 2018, 10.7 million barrels (17.4%) lower than the five-year average inventory level for this same time of year. Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain/West Coast, and East Coast inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels, 1.5 million barrels, 0.2 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.7% of total propane/propylene inventories.
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Headline crude prices for the week beginning 2 December 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$55/b
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The Global Small-Scale LNG Market is projected to grow from 30.8 MTPA in 2016 to 48.3 MTPA by 2022, at a CAGR of 6.7% between 2017 and 2022. The small-scale LNG market across the globe is driven by their increasing LNG demand from remote locations by applications, such as industrial & power, and the ability to transport LNG over long distances without the need for heavy investment such as pipelines. By terminal type, regasification terminal is expected to grow at a highest CAGR between 2017 and 2022. The increasing demand for LNG from the remote locations and global commoditization of LNG are some of the major factors that are driving the demand for small-scale LNG in this segment.
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The Linde Group (Germany), Wärtsilä (Finland), Honeywell International Inc. (U.S.), General Electric (U.S.), and Engie (France), among others are the leading companies operating in the small-scale LNG market. These companies are expected to account for significant shares of the small-scale LNG market in the near future.
Critical questions the report answers:
Growth Drivers are :
Energy cost advantage of LNG over alternate energy sources for end-users
Heavy duty transport companies save approximately 30% on fuel costs on LNG-fueled trucks, compared to diesel fueled trucks, and produce 30% lower emissions. Air pollution from diesel engines is one of the biggest concerns, especially in areas that struggle to meet air-quality standards. On the other hand, natural gas causes complete combustion and fewer emissions than diesel. It is estimated that increasing environmental concerns from the utilization of diesel vehicles is likely to increase the adoption of green fuel technologies such as natural gas. In the case of electric power generation, natural gas engines below 150 KW are more cost effective than oil fueled engines. Fuel cost is one of the major cost for road transportation, which is strongly subject to excise taxation. Typically, an LNG-fueled Volvo FM truck can travel up to 600 km with LNG. With an additional 150 litres of diesel, it can travel up to 1,000 km without refuelling. Thus, reducing the cost of travel. With additional LNG liquefaction capacity expected to come online in the next few years, an oversupply of LNG is expected, which will drive the price of LNG further lower. Considering all these factors, both developed and developing countries are undertaking feasibility studies to recognize the techno-economics of shifting their economies from diesel to natural gas. Therefore, the cheap price of small-scla LNG over others alterantive fuels will drive the growth during the forecast period.
Small-scale LNG terminals are regarded as facilities, including liquefaction and regasification terminals, with a capacity of less than 1 million tons per annum (MTPA) within the scope of this study. It includes the LNG produced from small-scale liquefaction terminals and regasified at small-scale regasification terminals for catering to applications such as LNG-fueled heavy-duty transport, LNG-fueled ships, and industrial & power generation.
North America small-scale LNG market is projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
The North America small-scale LNG market is projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. In North America, most of the small-scale LNG demand in industrial & power applications is met through peak shaving facilities. The peak shaving facilities are used to meet adequate supply of LNG to address the peak demand. In 2015, there were more than 100 peak shaving facilities in the U.S., among which one-half of the peak shaving facilities were located in the Northeast, while a quarter of them were located in the Midwest. Currently, the U.S. has among the highest number of peak shaving plants. However, less than 10% of them are available for any other use due to the current electricity demand. The commissioning of small-scale liquefaction plants can expand the peak shaving capacities in the region.
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Major Market Developments:
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The report "Cryogenic Tanks Market by Raw Material (Steel, Nickel Alloy), Cryogenic Liquid (Liquid Nitrogen, LNG), Application (Storage, Transportation), End-use Industry (Metal Processing, Energy Generation, Electronics), and Region - Global Forecast to 2024" The global cryogenic tanks market size is projected to grow from USD 6.2 billion in 2019 and expected to reach USD 8.1 billion by 2024, at a CAGR of 5.5%.
Browse 121 market data Tables and 36 Figures spread through 147 Pages and in-depth TOC on "Cryogenic Tanks Market by Raw Material (Steel, Nickel Alloy), Cryogenic Liquid (Liquid Nitrogen, LNG), Application (Storage, Transportation), End-use Industry (Metal Processing, Energy Generation, Electronics), and Region - Global Forecast to 2024"
View detailed Table of Content here - https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/cryogenic-tanks-market-26811967.html
The global industry for cryogenic tanks is driven primarily by the increasing demand for LNG. An increase in infrastructure spending, space applications for cryogenic technologies, and cryogenic energy storage systems represent promising growth opportunities for the market. Improving healthcare services in the developing economies is boosting the cryogenic tanks market.
The steel segment is estimated to lead the cryogenic tanks market, by raw material, during the forecast period.
Steel is primarily used in the manufacturing of cryogenic tanks. Most of the materials are ductile at room temperature and abruptly lose their ductility when a given threshold is exceeded. They then become brittle even at relatively low temperatures. The austenitic stainless steel is majorly used for working in the low-temperature range. Carbon and alloy grade steels used for low-temperature service are required to provide high strength, ductility, and toughness in vehicles, vessels, and structures that must be used at –49°F and lower. These factors are contributing to the growth in demand for steel for the manufacturing of cryogenic tanks.
Liquid Nitrogen is the fastest-growing cryogenic liquid segment of the cryogenic tanks market.
Liquid nitrogen is primarily used in metal processing, food & beverage, electronics, and healthcare industries. The steel manufacturing industry is one of the major consumers of nitrogen. Nitrogen is used in the food & beverage industry for food preservation and packaging applications. The use of liquid nitrogen in this industry enables cost savings during storage and transportation and improves food quality. Liquid nitrogen is used to cool normally soft or heat-sensitive materials, such as plastics, tires, and certain metals. The increasing demand for liquid nitrogen from metal processing, food, and medical industries is expected to drive the market in this segment.
Metal processing is expected to lead the end-use industry segment for cryogenic tanks market during the forecast period.
Metal-processing industry was the largest end-use industry for the cryogenic tanks industry. Cryogenic tanks are increasingly being used in the metal processing industry, especially steel the industry. Huge quantities of nitrogen and other industrial gases are used during the steel manufacturing process. Nitrogen is also known to be largest consumed gas in the industry. It is used as a high-pressure gas for laser cutting of steel and metal. The inert properties of nitrogen facilitates its use as a blanketing gas. Some gases, including hydrogen and oxygen, are also used in the metal processing industry. Cryogenic tanks are commonly used in the storage and transportation of these gases in manufacturing plants, which drives the market demand.
High economic growth rate and growing metal processing and energy generation industries in China, Australia, and India are projected to lead the cryogenic tanks market in APAC during the forecast period.
APAC is the fastest-growing market, in terms of both production and demand. Higher domestic demand, easy availability of raw materials, and low-cost labor make APAC the most preferred destination for the manufacturers of cryogenic tanks. The cryogenic tanks market in India, China, and Australia is expected to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The market is primarily driven by the demand from the energy & power sector. APAC is emerging as a leading consumer of cryogenic tanks, owing to the increasing demand from domestic as well as international markets.
The key players in cryogenic tanks market are Chart Industries (US), Cryofab (US), INOX India (India), Linde PLC (UK), Air Products (US), Cryolor (France), Air Water (Japan), Wessington Cryogenics (UK), FIBA Technologies (US), and ISISAN (Turkey). These players have established a strong foothold in the market by adopting strategies, such as expansion, new product launch, and merger & acquisition.
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