EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to average $73 per barrel in the second half of 2018, then fall to $69 per barrel in 2019
In the July 2018 update of its Short–Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $73 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2018 and $69/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $7/b lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7/b lower in 2019 (Figure 1).
EIA’s forecast of global liquid fuels balances indicates a looser oil market in the second half of 2018 and through the end of 2019 compared with the tight oil market conditions that prevailed in 2017 and the first half of 2018. Although global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by an average of 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017, EIA expects inventories to be relatively unchanged in 2018 and to increase by 0.6 million b/d in 2019 (Figure 2).
The forecast inventory builds in 2019 are mainly the result of expected liquid fuels production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Russia. EIA forecasts that these countries will collectively provide 2.2 million b/d out of the 2.4 million b/d of total global supply growth in 2019. Supply growth of this magnitude would outpace EIA’s forecast for global liquid fuels consumption growth of 1.7 million b/d for 2019.
EIA forecasts total U.S. crude oil production to average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up 1.4 million b/d from 2017, and 11.8 million b/d in 2019. If realized, the forecast level for both years would surpass the previous U.S. record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. Crude oil production at these forecast levels would probably make the United States the world’s leading crude oil producer in both years.
Increased production from tight rock formations within the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico accounts for 0.6 million b/d of the expected 1.2 million b/d of crude oil production growth from June 2018 to December 2019. The remaining increase comes from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, other regions in the Lower 48 states, and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.
However, OECD inventory levels that have fallen below the five-year (2013–17) average and a forecast of low spare capacity among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) create conditions for possible price increases if additional supply disruptions occur or if forecast supply growth does not materialize (Figure 3). EIA expects OPEC surplus production capacity to average 1.7 million b/d in 2018 and to fall to 1.3 million b/d in 2019, a relatively low level compared with the 2008–17 average of 2.3 million b/d. Low OPEC crude oil surplus production capacity can be an indicator of tight oil market conditions. All of OPEC’s currently available surplus production capacity is in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production to average 31.9 million b/d in 2018, a decrease of 0.6 million b/d compared with the 2017 level. The forecast decline is mainly the result of Venezuela’s rapidly decreasing crude oil production, which fell to less than 1.4 million b/d as of June 2018, a 0.6 million b/d decrease compared with June 2017. OPEC output during the first half of 2018 was also lower as a result of the production caps placed on the group’s producers as agreed upon in the November 2016 OPEC production agreement that aimed to limit OPEC crude oil output to 32.5 million b/d.
OPEC crude oil production averaged 31.9 million b/d in June. Although the OPEC and non-OPEC participants agreed on November 30, 2017, to extend the production cuts through the end of 2018 to reduce global oil inventories, tightening market conditions led the group to relax the production cuts starting in July 2018. EIA expects that OPEC crude oil output will decrease by an average of less than 0.1 million b/d in 2019. This small decline reflects crude oil production increases from some producers that would mostly offset expected combined declines of more than 1.0 million b/d in Iran and Venezuela.
U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices increase
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price increased one cent from the previous week to $2.86 per gallon on July 9, up 56 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest and Gulf Coast prices each increased nearly two cents to $2.78 per gallon and $2.62 per gallon, respectively, the East Coast price increased one cent to $2.78 per gallon, and the West Coast price rose slightly, remaining virtually unchanged at $3.39 per gallon. The Rocky Mountain price decreased marginally, remaining virtually unchanged at $2.96 per gallon.
The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased less than a cent, remaining at $3.24 per gallon on July 9, up 76 cents from a year ago. The Rocky Mountain and East Coast prices each increased over a penny to $3.37 per gallon and $3.24 per gallon, respectively, the Midwest price rose nearly one cent to $3.18 per gallon, and the West Coast and Gulf Coast prices each rose slightly, remaining virtually unchanged at $3.75 per gallon and $3.00 per gallon, respectively.
Propane/propylene inventories rise
U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 2.4 million barrels last week to 63.6 million barrels as of July 6, 2018, 6.4 million barrels (9.2%) lower than the five-year average inventory level for this same time of year. Gulf Coast and Midwest inventories each increased by 1.2 million barrels and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels, while East Coast inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.7% of total propane/propylene inventories.
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Now that Occidental Petroleum has beaten Chevron to the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum – and the strategic assets it holds in the prolific Permian Basin – one would think that the deal is cut-and-dry. Not so. The fallout of the massive US$57 billion deal has begun, and it pits one legendary billionaire against another legendary billionaire.
The Occidental purchase of Anadarko had all the signs of a classic takeover battle, swooping in after Chevron and Anadarko’s boards had approved their own US$48 billion deal. It was made only possible by Oxy CEO Vicki Hollub making a quick private plane trip that resulted in a last-minute US$10 billion capital injection from Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway that was contingent on the Anadarko purchase working. It did. And with the US Federal Trade Commission approving the deal, Anadarko will become part of Occidental by the end of 2019.
But not everyone is happy about the situation. Some investors and shareholders of Occidental believe that it badly overpaid for Anadarko, and were rankled by the deal bypassing a shareholder vote on the matter. The chief critic of this is activist Carl Icahn, who owns a US$1.6 billion stake in Occidental, who slammed it as ‘misguided’ with the CEO and Board ‘betting the company to serve their own agendas’. Icahn has already filed a lawsuit demanding access to Occidental’s books and records, and has just take the fight to a new level.
Last week, Icahn filed regulatory paperwork to call for a special shareholder meeting where he hopes to oust four of Occidental directors and modify the company’s charter through stockholder consent from ever engineering a similar takeover. Icahn wants Spencer Abraham, Eugene Batchelder, Margaret Foran and Avedick Poladian out from the Board, holding them responsible for the ‘fiasco’. He has, of course, nominated his own preferred replacements, including one of his portfolio manager’s Nicholas Graziano, his general counsel Andrew Langham, former Jarden finance chief Alan LeFevre and former president of Shell John Hofmeister. While Icahn has publicly acknowledge that the Anadarko takeover will probably go ahead, his aim is for the new Board to oversee ‘future extraordinary transactions to ensure that they are not consummated without shareholder approval where approval.’
Will it work? Before the proxy fight can go ahead, Icahn must get at least 20% of shareholders to agree to a meeting. That’s a tall order, given that the current crop of directors and Boards were re-elected at the May annual meeting, although with lower support. But there is certainly some appetite, given that Occidental’s stock has dropped nearly 17% since the initial April hostile takeover, reflecting market mood that it had bitten off more than it could chew.
All of this is playing out against a backdrop of pessimism in the Permian. Although the shale revolution had brought American crude production to record highs and sent its crude exports to a new record of 3.3 mmb/d in June, there are now cracks showing. With limited infrastructure, low prices and over-exploitation, the Permian boom is slowing down. Once an investor’s darling, financing has now become far tougher for Permian players, as the high production fall off rate means that companies have to spend more and more money to just maintain production. It’s a situation that is particularly negative for the small, nimble players that powered the initial shale revolution who lack the deep pockets to optimise shale assets over a longer production period. All across the Permian, independent players have lost between 50-100% of their market value, making them ripe for acquisition by majors and supermajors. Deals like the Anadarko one make sense in this context, but with the financial risk increasing, these blockbuster deals may never lead to blockbuster returns. Carl Icahn may not be able win his battle for the Occidental board, but he is certainly making a serious – and very valid - point.
The Occidental-Anadarko deal:
According to the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Nigeria has the world’s 9th largest natural gas reserves (192 TCF of gas reserves). As at 2018, Nigeria exported over 1tcf of gas as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to several countries. However domestically, we produce less than 4,000MW of power for over 180million people.
Think about this – imagine every Nigerian holding a 20W light bulb, that’s how much power we generate in Nigeria. In comparison, South Africa generates 42,000MW of power for a population of 57 million. We have the capacity to produce over 2 million Metric Tonnes of fertilizer (primarily urea) per year but we still import fertilizer. The Federal Government’s initiative to rejuvenate the agriculture sector is definitely the right thing to do for our economy, but fertilizer must be readily available to support the industry. Why do we import fertilizer when we have so much gas?
I could go on and on with these statistics, but you can see where I’m going with this so I won’t belabor the point. I will leave you with this mental image: imagine a man that lives with his family on the banks of a river that has fresh, clean water. Rather than collect and use this water directly from the river, he treks over 20km each day to buy bottled water from a company that collects the same water, bottles it and sells to him at a profit. This is the tragedy on Nigeria and it should make us all very sad.
Several indigenous companies like Nestoil were born and grown by the opportunities created by the local and international oil majors – NNPC and its subsidiaries – NGC, NAPIMS, Shell, Mobil, Agip, NDPHC. Nestoil’s main focus is the Engineering Procurement Construction and Commissioning of oil and gas pipelines and flowstations, essentially, infrastructure that supports upstream companies to produce and transport oil and natural gas, as well as and downstream companies to store and move their product. In our 28 years of doing business, we have built over 300km of pipelines of various sizes through the harshest terrain, ranging from dry land to seasonal swamp, to pure swamps, as well as some of the toughest and most volatile and hostile communities in Nigeria. I would be remiss if I do not use this opportunity to say a big thank you to those companies that gave us the opportunity to serve you. The over 2,000 direct staff and over 50,000 indirect staff we employ thank you. We are very grateful for the past opportunities given to us, and look forward to future opportunities that we can get.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 15 July 2019 – Brent: US$66/b; WTI: US$59/b
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