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Last Updated: August 10, 2018
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Market Watch

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 6 August 2018 – Brent: US$73/b; WTI: US$69/b

  • Push and pull factors continue to keep crude prices in a steady range, with the market focusing on the success of OPEC’s new production deal, possible supply disruptions and global trade tensions.
  • OPEC sources reported that Saudi crude production in July had fallen by 200,000 b/d to 10.29 mmb/d – lower than expected and seemingly contradicted by Aramco’s own figures that showed a 230,000 b/d in July - but Saudi production is expected to ramp up soon.
  • Russian production is growing too, rolling back almost all previous cuts to pump some 11.215 mmb/d in July, up from 148,000 b/d and just below the post-Soviet Union record level.
  • This promised increased production, however, was offset by disruptions in the Red Sea, where the Yemeni Houthi group had halted shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait through militant action; the group is calling off attacks for two weeks for peace talks, but Saudi Arabian shipments are still suspended.
  • Additional tariffs came in on both the US and Chinese sides on US$16 billion worth of goods this week, US crude oil was removed at the last minute from the Chinese hitlist (but refined fuels remain), though the threat of a 25% tariff on US crude and LNG still remains.
  • The uncertainty over the trade situation has been enough to cause Sinopec to hold off on buying American crude, where it is anticipated that no new bookings for US crude will be made until October.
  • On the impending Iranian sanctions, while India seems to be slowly winding down purchases, China has directly defied American pressure to completed cut off Iranian imports, but did agree to ‘not ramp up purchases’.
  • A surprise drawdown at the Cushing storage hub supported American prices, but US drillers still shed two oil rigs and three gas rigs – the fourth weekly decline in the active rig count over the past five weeks.
  • Crude price outlook: Increase supply looks inevitable, which should keep some downward pressure on prices, although trade and geopolitical tensions could rear their ugly heads again. We expect Brent to trade at US$70-72/b and WTI at US$65-67/b.

 

Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Eni has announced plans to invest some US$1.8 billion into three offshore Mexican fields through 2040, hoping to ramp up production at the Amoca and Mizton fields to 90,000 b/d by 2022 and start the Tecoalli field by 2024.
  • Tallgrass Energy is proposing to build the 700 mile/1126 km Seahorse pipeline to carry crude from Cushing, Oklahoma to the St James refining complex in Louisiana, to ease bottlenecks building up in Cushing.
  • Norway’s Aker BP has acquired Total’s interest in 11 licences on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for some US$205 million.
  • Petrobas is introducing its new Buzios crude, a medium-sweet grade from its pre-salt Santos field available from October that is targeted at China.
  • Oilfield services provider Petrofac is scaling back its foray into production, selling 49% of its oil and gas fields in Mexico to Perenco for US$200 million.
  • Total’s North Sea employees have gone on their third strike in two weeks on August 6, with another two walkouts planned for August 13 and 20.

Downstream

  • Indonesia will make its biodiesel mandate compulsory for all vehicles and heavy machinery from September 1, aiming to reduce its net imports of fuel.
  • In an attempt to get its refinery upgrade plans back on track, Indonesia’s Pertamina has approached Azerbaijan’s Socar and Japan’s JX Nippon Oil to partner on plan to upgrade its Balikpapan refinery by 100 kb/d.
  • Iraq has extended the deadline for foreign companies and investors to bid on the 70,000 b/d Diwaniya refinery near Baghdad, with bids closing October 30.
  • Jizzakh Petroleum is tapping Honeywell technologies in the new 115 kb/d refinery it is building in the eastern region of Uzbekistan.
  • Taiwan’s CPC is looking to invest US$6.6 billion in an Indian petrochemical project in Paradip, utilising feedstock from the nearby IOC refinery.

Natural Gas/LNG

  • As of July 27, 2018, the Ichythys LNG project in Australia is now operational after years of delays, which will be able to produce some 1.6 bcf/d of natural gas and 85,000 b/d of condensate at full capacity.
  • Shell is aiming to make its FID on the LNG Canada project by the end of 2018, as a flurry of activity revives hope for the dormant Kitimat project.
  • After work at the Mansuriyah gas fields in Iraq were halted in 2014 over IS militant activity by an international consortium led by Turkey’s TPAO, Iraq has decided to take over development itself using its state oil firms.
  • Egypt expects natural gas production from the West Nile Delta field 9B to begin in early October, with the Shell project aiming for output of 400 mcf/d.
  • PetroChina has announced  a ‘major shale gas discovery’ in the Huangguashan block in the Sichuan basin which boost CNPC’s production at the basin from 3 bcm in 2017 to 5.6 bcm this year.

Corporate

  • China’s Sinochem is filing for an IPO in Hong Kong that could raise some US$2 billion necessary to shift to higher-value areas of petrochemicals.

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Leading Countries and Region wise Share in the Oilfield Scale Inhibitor Market

The global oilfield scale inhibitor market was valued at USD 509.4 Million in 2014 and is expected to witness a CAGR of 5.40% between 2015 and 2020. Factors driving the market of oilfield scale inhibitor include increasing demand from the oil and gas industry, wide availability of scale inhibitors, rising demand for biodegradable and environment-compatible scale inhibitors, and so on.

Download PDF Brochure @ https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/pdfdownloadNew.asp?id=268225660

 The oilfield scale inhibitor market is experiencing strong growth and is mainly driven by regions, such as RoW, North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Considerable amount of investments are made by different market players to serve the end-user applications of scale inhibitors. The global market is segmented into major geographic regions, such as North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World (RoW). The market has also been segmented on the basis of type. On the basis of type of scale inhibitors, the market is sub-divided into phosphonates, carboxylate/acrylate, sulfonates, and others. 

Carboxylate/acrylic are the most common type of oilfield scale inhibitor

Among the various types of scale inhibitors, the carboxylate/acrylate type holds the largest share in the oilfield scale inhibitor market. This large share is attributed to the increasing usage of this type of scale inhibitors compared to the other types. Carboxylate/acrylate meets the legislation requirement, abiding environmental norms due to the absence of phosphorus. Carboxylate/acrylate scale inhibitors are used in artificial cooling water systems, heat exchangers, and boilers.

RoW, which includes the Middle-East, Africa, and South America, is the most dominant region in the global oilfield scale inhibitor market

The RoW oilfield scale inhibitor market accounted for the largest share of the global oilfield scale inhibitor market, in terms of value, in 2014. This dominance is expected to continue till 2020 due to increased oil and gas activities in this region. The Middle-East, Africa, and South America have abundant proven oil and gas reserves, which will enable the rapid growth of the oilfield scale inhibitor market in these regions. Among the regions in RoW, Africa’s oilfield scale inhibitor market has the highest prospect for growth. Africa has a huge amount of proven oil reserves and is one of the leading oil producing region in the World. But political unrest coupled with lack of proper infrastructures may negatively affect oil and gas activities in this region.

Major players in this market are The Dow Chemical Company (U.S.), BASF SE (Germany), AkzoNobel Oilfield (The Netherlands), Kemira OYJ (Finland), Solvay S.A. (Belgium), Halliburton Company (U.S.), Schlumberger Limited (U.S.), Baker Hughes Incorporated (U.S.), Clariant AG (Switzerland), E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (U.S.), Evonik Industries AG (Germany), GE Power & Water Process Technologies (U.S.), Ashland Inc. (U.S.), and Innospec Inc. (U.S.). 

Speak to Analyst @ https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/speaktoanalystNew.asp?id=268225660

Scope of the Report:

  • By Type:
    • Phosphonates
    • Carboxylate/Acrylate
    • Sulfonates
    • Others
      • Polymaleic Acid
      • Synthetic Polymeric Acid
      • Polyaspartate
      • Phosphinopolyacrylate
      • Carboxy Methyl Inulin
  • By Region:
    • North America
      • U.S.
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
      • Western Europe
      • Eastern Europe
      • Southern Europe
    • Asia-Pacific
      • China
      • India
    • RoW
      • Middle-East
      • Africa
      • South America

Get 10% FREE Customization on this Study @ https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/requestCustomizationNew.asp?id=268225660

December, 13 2019
Your Weekly Update: 9 - 13 December 2019

Market Watch  

Headline crude prices for the week beginning 9 December 2019 – Brent: US$64/b; WTI: US$59/b

  • The recent adjustment to the OPEC+ supply deal may not have been enough to convince the market completely, but a deal is still better than no deal; with the club coordinating to formalise the existing level of production as cuts, crude prices capped off a week of gains but failed to move higher
  • The new supply quotas include a reduction of 500,000 b/d across OPEC+, though this does not remove additional barrels from the market but rather seals in the current level of production, where Saudi Arabia is overcompensating for non-compliance elsewhere; the challenge now is also to ‘equitably redistribute’ the Saudi burden among other members
  • Saudi Arabia also pledged an additional voluntary cut of 400,000 b/d, provided all OPEC+ members meet their own quotas; compliance did, however, get easier as the club agreed to remove condensate from the crude quotas, benefitting Russia
  • The new supply deal will only stay in place until March 2020 – not quite enough time to resolve the supply glut – but OPEC is also betting that the relentless rise in American crude production will slow down in 2020
  • There is a reason to believe this, given the sharp decline in American drilling activities; but debt-laden US shale drillers might actually do the opposite – accelerate drilling to produce more oil to stave off their creditors
  • There are hints that a US-China trade deal might be coming soon, as China agreed to stop the planned implementation of tariffs on US goods due to kick on December 15; a deal cannot happen soon enough, with reports that Chinese exports to the US fell by 23% y-o-y, flagging up worries about oil demand
  • OPEC’s attempt to expand its influence by courting Brazil to its membership has been rebuffed by Petrobras, with its CEO stating that he is ‘against cartels’
  • In. the US, the EIA reports that the US moved to be a net exporter of crude and petroleum products for the first time since 1973 – aided by growth in crude and refined product exports, with imports largely flat
  • The US active rig count fell below 800 for the first time in 32 months, shedding 5 oil rigs but gaining 2 gas ones for a net loss of 3; the rig count is now down 276 from 1,075 sites working a year ago
  • OPEC’s headline agreement will prop up oil prices, but since details of the new ‘distribution’ of cuts is not yet clear, there will be no appetite for the market to allow crude to break out beyond their range; Brent is expected to stay in the US$64-65/b range, while WTI will stay at the US$59-60/b range


Headlines of the week

Upstream

  • Apache’s closely watched Maka-1 oil well – adjacent to ExxonMobil’s massive Liza field– is going for a third test drill, raising suspicions that Maka-1 could prove to be a bust, dashing hopes of Suriname emulating Guyana’s success
  • Following Murphy Oil and ExxonMobil’s exit from Malaysian upstream, oilfield service provider Petrofac is also mulling an exit, selling its assets – which include a stake in the PM304 field – for US$300 million
  • Libya and Turkey have agreed to a potentially contentious maritime deal demarcating their nautical exclusive economic zones, setting both countries up for a showdown with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt over exploration rights
  • Repsol’s upstream arm is the first oil major to align its business goals with the Paris climate change accord, aiming to eliminate all net greenhouse gas emissions from its own operations and customers by 2050 – with a change in focus away from output growth towards value generation and clean energy
  • Canadian oil sands producers in Alberta are looking at new ways to export their crude, which would involve removing condensate, light oils and other diluents from the oil sands, and shipping the heavier latter by more cost-effective rail
  • UK independent EnQuest has been awarded 85% of the offshore Block PM409 PSC in Peninsular Malaysia, with Petronas Carigali holding the remaining 15%
  • Fresh from the success of starting up the giant Johan Sverdrup oilfield ahead of schedule, Equinor now estimates that it will be able to raise recoverable reserves from the field from 2.7 billion boe to 3.2 billion boe

Midstream/Downstream

  • PDVSA has reached a deal with Curacao to operate the 335,000 Isla refinery for another year, extending a contract that was set to expire at the end of 2019, but the new arrangement has been described as a  ‘transition’ by Curacao
  • Turkey’s state sovereign wealth fund – the Turkish Wealth Fund – will be investing some US$10 billion to build a new integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex in Adana, with construction expected to begin in 2021
  • Sonangol has terminated its contract with Hong Kong-based consortium United Shine to plan to build its new 60,000 b/d Cabinda refinery in Angola but will seek new investors and partners to go ahead with the project

Natural Gas/LNG

  • First gas has begun to flow into Sempra’s Cameron LNG Train 2 in Louisiana, marking the start of the final commissioning stage of the phase that will eventually incorporate 3 trains with 12 million tpa capacity
  • The Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline – connecting Russia and China – has launched, which will deliver up to 38 bcm of natural gas annually for 30 years to CNPC and Chinese customers from the enormous gas fields in eastern Siberia
  • After years spent getting Kitimat LNG in Canada’s BC off the ground, Chevron will be selling its 50% stake in the project – part of a broader retreat from natural gas amid a bleak price outlook – adding new woes to the troubled project
  • Prior to Chevron’s decision to exit Kitimat LNG, Canada’s Energy Regulator has doubled the timeframe of the project’s export license – allowing it to export up to 18 million tpa of LNG (up from 10 million tpa previously) for 40 years
  • ExxonMobil has shelved plans to build an LNG import terminal in Australia’s Victoria state after failing to secure enough buyers for the project
  • Train 1 at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas has begun operations, with Train 2 and Train 3 expected next year for a full capacity of 15 mtpa
December, 13 2019
EIA analysis explores India’s projected energy consumption

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), India has the fastest-growing rate of energy consumption globally through 2050. By 2050, EIA projects in the IEO2019 Reference case that India will consume more energy than the United States by the mid-2040s, and its consumption will remain second only to China through 2050. EIA explored three alternative outcomes for India’s energy consumption in an Issue in Focus article released today and a corresponding webinar held at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Long-term energy consumption projections in India are uncertain because of its rapid rate of change magnified by the size of its economy. The Issue in Focus article explores two aspects of uncertainty regarding India’s future energy consumption: economic composition by sector and industrial sector energy intensity. When these assumptions vary, it significantly increases estimates of future energy consumption.

In the IEO2019 Reference case, EIA projects the economy of India to surpass the economies of the European countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United States by the late 2030s to become the second-largest economy in the world, behind only China. In EIA’s analysis, gross domestic product values for countries and regions are expressed in purchasing power parity terms.

The IEO2019 Reference case shows India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growing from $9 trillion in 2018 to $49 trillion in 2050, an average growth rate of more than 5% per year, which is higher than the global average annual growth rate of 3% in the IEO2019 Reference case.

gross domestic product of selected countries and regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019

India’s economic growth will continue to drive India’s growing energy consumption. In the IEO2019 Reference case, India’s total energy consumption increases from 35 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2018 to 120 quadrillion Btu in 2050, growing from a 6% share of the world total to 13%. However, annually, the level of GDP in India has a lower energy consumption than some other countries and regions.

total energy consumption in selected countries and regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019

In the Issue in Focus, three alternative cases explore different assumptions that affect India’s projected energy consumption:

  • Composition case: EIA assumes India’s economy shifts toward further growth in manufacturing, which increases energy consumption.
  • Technology case: EIA assumes India’s industrial technology does not advance as quickly as in the IEO2019 Reference case, resulting in greater energy use.
  • Combination case: EIA combines the assumptions in the Composition and Technology cases.

EIA’s analysis shows that the country's industrial activity has a greater effect on India’s energy consumption than technological improvements. In the IEO2019 Composition and Combination cases, where the assumption is that economic growth is more concentrated in manufacturing, energy use in India grows at a greater rate because those industries have higher energy intensities.

In the IEO2019 Combination case, India’s industrial energy consumption grows to 38 quadrillion Btu more in 2050 than in the Reference case. This difference is equal to a more than 4% increase in 2050 global energy use.

December, 13 2019