And the hits keep coming in Guyana. This week, ExxonMobil announced that it had made a new discovery – called the Hammerhead-1 – in the South American nation. It is the ninth in a string of major offshore discoveries that have turned the once sleepy nation into the world’s newest hotbed of upstream exploration.
Located in the Stabroek Block, the Hammerhead-1 well encountered ‘approximately 60 metes of high quality, oil-bearing sandstone reservoirs’, the fifth discovery in the basin and just 21 km southwest of Liza-1, the well that kicked off the bonanza in January 2017. The discovery brings the estimated gross recoverable resources in the Guyana-Suriname basin to 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, up from the initial 1.4 billion barrels when Liza-1 was discovered and 3.2 billion barrels in January 2018, when the Ranger-1 well struck oil.
The current timeline has Phase 1 of Liza – which is already sanctioned - reaching first oil by early 2020, using the Liza Destiny FPSO to produce an initial 120,000 b/d. Liza Phase 2 is set for FID at the end of the year, bringing in another FPSO with 220,000 b/d capacity by 2022, while sanctioning for Payara (using a 180,000 b/d FPSO) is set for 2019 for a 2023 startup. Beyond that, ExxonMobil, Hess and CNOOC Nexen have noted that the discoveries in Stabroek could support up to five FPSO vessels, producing some 750,000 b/d by 2025.
That is, if things stay the way they are. The current exploration program in Guyana has a success rate of 82%, and there are almost 18 prospects left in the Stabroek block that can be pursued. The consortium led by ExxonMobil (45%) with Hess (30%) and CNOOC Nexen (25%) is currently the only player in Guyana, operating the 26,800 square km Stabroek Block. Buoyed by that resounding success, there are more players knocking at the door – in search of assets that the US Geological Survey estimated could contain as much as 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 tcf of natural gas. Even neighbouring countries of Suriname and French Guiana are gearing up for some action.
With this much riches on the horizon, Guyana could become the new Qatar or Brunei – a tiny nation punching well above its weight economically, or what Wood Mackenzie is calling ‘the richest corner of the continent’. However, there are warning signs that the current institutional and regulatory framework is insufficient to handle the influx of discoveries; a national oil company is being developed and a new taxation system for oil contract is being mooted to prevent the ‘lopsided’ ExxonMobil contract from repeating, but more needs to be done. The future looks very bright for Guyana, but with petro-dollars always come major risks. Here’s hoping the opportunities Guyana has been blessed with will not be squandered.
Major oil discoveries in Guyana
Estimated recoverable volumes: 4 billion barrels oil (August 2018)
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When it was first announced in 2012, there was scepticism about whether or not Petronas’ RAPID refinery in Johor was destined for reality or cancellation. It came at a time when the refining industry saw multiple ambitious, sometimes unpractical, projects announced. At that point, Petronas – though one of the most respected state oil firms – was still seen as more of an upstream player internationally. Its downstream forays were largely confined to its home base Malaysia and specialty chemicals, as well as a surprising venture into South African through Engen. Its refineries, too, were relatively small. So the announcement that Petronas was planning essentially, its own Jamnagar, promoted some pessimism. Could it succeed?
It has. The RAPID refinery – part of a larger plan to turn the Pengerang district in southern Johor into an oil refining and storage hub capitalising on linkages with Singapore – received its first cargo of crude oil for testing in September 2018. Mechanical completion was achieved on November 29 and all critical units have begun commissioning ahead of the expected firing up of RAPID’s 300 kb/d CDU later this month. A second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude arrived at RAPID last week. It seems like it’s all systems go for RAPID. But it wasn’t always so clear cut. Financing difficulties – and the 2015 crude oil price crash – put the US$27 billion project on shaky ground for a while, and it was only when Saudi Aramco swooped in to purchase a US$7 billion stake in the project that it started coalescing. Petronas had been courting Aramco since the start of the project, mainly as a crude provider, but having the Saudi giant on board was the final step towards FID. It guaranteed a stable supply of crude for Petronas; and for Aramco, RAPID gave it a foothold in a major global refining hub area as part of its strategy to expand downstream.
But RAPID will be entering into a market quite different than when it was first announced. In 2012, demand for fuel products was concentrated on light distillates; in 2019, that focus has changed. Impending new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations are requiring shippers to switch from burning cheap (and dirty) fuel oil to using cleaner middle distillate gasoils. This plays well into complex refineries like RAPID, specialising in cracking heavy and medium Arabian crude into valuable products. But the issue is that Asia and the rest of the world is currently swamped with gasoline. A whole host of new Asian refineries – the latest being the 200 kb/d Nghi Son in Vietnam – have contributed to growing volumes of gasoline with no home in Asia. Gasoline refining margins in Singapore have taken a hit, falling into negative territory for the first time in seven years. Adding RAPID to the equation places more pressure on gasoline margins, even though margins for middle distillates are still very healthy. And with three other large Asian refinery projects scheduled to come online in 2019 – one in Brunei and two in China – that glut will only grow.
The safety valve for RAPID (and indeed the other refineries due this year) is that they have been planned with deep petrochemicals integration, using naphtha produced from the refinery portion. RAPID itself is planned to have capacity of 3 million tpa of ethylene, propylene and other olefins – still a lucrative market that justifies the mega-investment. But it will be at least two years before RAPID’s petrochemicals portion will be ready to start up, and when it does, it’ll face the same set of challenging circumstances as refineries like Hengli’s 400 kb/d Dalian Changxing plant also bring online their petchem operations. But that is a problem for the future and for now, RAPID is first out of the gate into reality. It won’t be entering in a bonanza fuels market as predicted in 2012, but there is still space in the market for RAPID – and a few other like in – at least for now.
RAPID Refinery Factsheet:
Tyre market in Bangladesh is forecasted to grow at over 9% until 2020 on the back of growth in automobile sales, advancements in public infrastructure, and development-seeking government policies.
The government has emphasized on the road infrastructure of the country, which has been instrumental in driving vehicle sales in the country.
The tyre market reached Tk 4,750 crore last year, up from about Tk 4,000 crore in 2017, according to market insiders.
The commercial vehicle tyre segment dominates this industry with around 80% of the market share. At least 1.5 lakh pieces of tyres in the segment were sold in 2018.
In the commercial vehicle tyre segment, the MRF's market share is 30%. Apollo controls 5% of the segment, Birla 10%, CEAT 3%, and Hankook 1%. The rest 51% is controlled by non-branded Chinese tyres.
However, Bangladesh mostly lacks in tyre manufacturing setups, which leads to tyre imports from other countries as the only feasible option to meet the demand. The company largely imports tyre from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Automobile and tyre sales in Bangladesh are expected to grow with the rising in purchasing power of people as well as growing investments and joint ventures of foreign market players. The country might become the exporting destination for global tyre manufacturers.
Several global tyre giants have also expressed interest in making significant investments by setting up their manufacturing units in the country.
This reflects an opportunity for local companies to set up an indigenous manufacturing base in Bangladesh and also enables foreign players to set up their localized production facilities to capture a significant market.
It can be said that, the rise in automobile sales, improvement in public infrastructure, and growth in purchasing power to drive the tyre market over the next five years.
Headline crude prices for the week beginning 14 January 2019 – Brent: US$61/b; WTI: US$51/b
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